/biz/ - Business & Finance

Can't believe I have to bump this kind of thread. Sad! Bump!

>>52747722
What does words mean?

>For researchers at the BIS, it’s the sheer scale of the swaps that’s worrying. They estimate that banks headquartered outside the US carry $39 trillion of this debt -- more than double their on-balance sheet obligations and ten times their capital. Accounting conventions only require derivatives to be booked on a net basis, so the full extent of the cash involved isn’t recorded on a balance sheet.

>“There is a staggering volume of off-balance sheet dollar debt that is partly hidden, and FX risk settlement remains stubbornly high,” said Borio, head of the monetary and economic department at the BIS.

>>52747722
>https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2212h.pdf
blimmin HECK

literally nothing.

>>52747939
>Gae
Doom coom go boom soon.
>>52747722
SHIT THREAD!

>>52748066
satan deceives, this is a bubble that's been brewing since the dotcom bubble

>>52748077
>>52748066
>>52747939
Has /biz/ always been so dumb?

>>52747722
So a bunch of EU? and Asian? RUS? SA? banks have high debt? So what? They aren't FDC insured, so a non issue to US.

>>52748187
Yes.
In spite of that, this is just another scary prediction piece to throw on the heap. Wake me up when something actually happens.

>>52747939
Quite literally doesn't mean anything, they'll kick the can and it'll be someone else's problem in 40 years.

>>52748402

Pension fund fuckery, OP might be a Belgian boomer, who knows. It's all dollar milkshake theory stuff, smart countries must have it priced in.

>>52747722

>The $80 trillion-plus in outstanding
obligations to pay US dollars in FX swaps/forwards and currency swaps, ... exceeds the stocks of dollar Treasury bills, repo and commercial paper
combined
This is a big deal... (((they))) have essentially created money in the form of promises to pay dollars, to the point where the worlds GDP has been exceeded and we still haven't found the bottom.
Imagine you have sold more derivates than shares available, the derivates are 30 DTE and the shares are the entire supply of world reserve currency. In a time where we cant just print more to float the difference and keep the machine working.
>bad news

>>52748522
op is german >>52748171

>>52748546
I'm actually swiss, fuckhead

>>52748591
even worse

>>52748524
fx swaps are collateralized by another currency, not air, so it's not exactly accurate to think of it as printing

>>52748591
the same faggot that screamed bloody dump when credit suisse fuckeries happend? Nothing ever happens, especially when advertising blogs scream about it

so who's on that bad side of the majority of those trades? europeans?

So when this anon said this:
It wasn't a fucking meme. Anything to supress Link.

>>52748783
Anyone holding US dollars.

How do I profit off this?
Hold USD?

>>52748773
They're not exactly screaming about it
>>52748783
Could be anyone. But it's partly also US non-banks apparently >>52748171
>>52748522
>It's all dollar milkshake theory stuff
I find it interesting that the CNY seems more and more like a serious alternative to USD to BRICS countries. I also keep thinking about that schizo Dalio rambling about USD losing reserve currency status

>>52748874
Long USD until it squeezes and then buy the CNY dip

>>52747722
It's okay. They will use everybody's 401K as exit liquidity. This is by design. The SEC set this up back in July as the watched the train approaching.

>>52748783
it's likely that most of those swaps are used to obtain dollar liquidity in some manner. one important question is what the counter party to those swaps is on the other side of the non-US institution.
if it's mostly US institutions, then US institutions are shorting the dollar, and everyone else is longing it. short term good for everyone else, long term bad for everyone else.
if it's just a huge mix of both, then most won't have a considerable position swaying either way; the swaps are just there to make cash flow to where it's needed, and the primary issue is contagion risk.

>>52748887
>But it's partly also US non-banks apparently
image shows non-US banks, not US non-banks

https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/occ-an/2022/34-95327.pdf

>>52747992
Wake me up when something happens, preferably in two weeks

>>52747722
>>52747899
Does this mean the fed is breaking things?

>>52749238
no it just means that the fed has little info on how policy might affect this particular asset

Holy shit bros these sheets just lost their balance and flew over my house!!

>>52748591
Isn't that sussie bank of yours already bankrupt?

Is this the eurodollar meme people doom about evry x months?

>>52749088
>image shows non-US banks, not US non-banks
My bad. But it also shows non-banks outside the US
>the primary issue is contagion risk
Yes but how high is the risk and will there be a liquidity event is the question. And what will the fed be able to do this time since there’s no more "fed put", high debt/gdp, etc

>>52747722
>buffet tells you to ignore the news
>(((someone))) on /biz/ posts only the news
>only talking points on /biz/ are the (((news)))

>>52749810
If other countries banks fail that will just pump the dollar and our markets as foreign investors flee to safety. This is bullish.

>>52748812
where is this from ? what. the. actual. fuck.

>>52748812
>>52750331
yeah wait what? was this actually posted somewhere before this news dropped?

>>52747992
>Accounting conventions only require derivatives to be booked on a net basis
so this is a nothing burger that anons are worrying about again, got it.

>>52748812

>>52748918
China is destroying its economy over a cold. They are choosing totalitarianism and ego over capitalism, which is foolish because capitalism allowed them to get this far in the first place. China will not survive this. Money goes where money is treated best, and no country is better than the US. When dollar squeezes you should use those dollars to buy into tangible assets like food, land, guns, a homogenous high trust community, and boomer rocks if you think you can hold them through the next dark age.