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/vt/ - Virtual Youtubers

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32107247 No.32107247 [Reply] [Original]

Do you think vtubing will still be a big thing in 5 years? 20? 50? At what point, if ever, do you think it will fizzle out?

>> No.32107285

>>32107247
it already is in the west lol

>> No.32107298

>>32107247
It isn't a big thing now.

>> No.32107332

>>32107247
I'm just waiting for the day I can order a sexbot off Amazon and fuck her until I die like in futarama.

>> No.32107371

>>32107247
ever wondered why there's no EN3 announcement yet?

>> No.32107374

>>32107247
two weeks

>> No.32107377

>>32107247
As long as streaming exist vtuber will exist. It will honestly probably get better as tech improves.

>> No.32107407
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32107407

>>32107332
Anon... that day will 100% not come in our lifetime, if ever.

>> No.32107419

Yes, as long as streaming exists

>> No.32107605

>>32107247
It will fizzle out in a year or two because everything is expensive and keeps ging up, so you can't afford to keep spending money on streamers and their merch. Vtubing/streaming will be hit hard.

>> No.32107683

>>32107605
>ECONOMIC COLLAPSE SOON THE INFLATION/BUBBLE/RECESSION WILL FUCK US ALL
You've been saying this for decades

>> No.32107746

>>32107407
I'll settle for the prototype. If it kills me via electric shock accident or some shit like that it will still be worth it.

>> No.32107797

When AI girlfriends and hologram tech becomes more advanced

>> No.32107810

>>32107605
People who spend money on vtubers typically have no family or gf nor any other major hobby. There will always be people with disposable income to burn.

>> No.32107816

>>32107247
Depends how good at destroying it western whores are

>> No.32107901

>>32107247
Sadly, it'll go the same way as all other entertainment industries. As it grows it'll appeal to a more general mainstream audience and in the process alienate the core audience that got it off the ground. Those of us who were in that audience are left waiting around for the next new industry to build up and be let down by.

>> No.32108001

I dont think its anything worth worrying about. Sure, over the years it will lose relevancy, but there will always be a niche community that supports it. People 5 years ago asked the same question, and now vtubing as a concept has been widely recognized by the internet as a whole.

>> No.32108258

>>32107247
>big thing
Define big thing.
Holos get on tv. Before 3rd Fes Cover has unique variation of newpaper ads for each prefectures in japan. Holos go on Japan Trending from time to time.

Are these big things?

>> No.32108345

>>32107407
why must you hurt me like this

>> No.32108377

>>32107247
It will exist as long as streaming does, but it will change over time like any other form of entertainment. There's nothing much more to say.

>> No.32108382

>>32107247
There will be changes in platform, for example maybe less youtube and twitch and more tiktok and VR, as well as changes in esthetics and design, but there will always be reasons why people, especially women, will not want to show their real faces and instead play a fictional larger than life character. They're basically like the mascots in Disneyworld you meet live instead of precorded, but digitized.

>> No.32108513

>>32107247
Vtubing yes. Hololive? That's more doubtful at least where EN is concerned. I'm not even talking about "muh purity" but as it becomes more mainstream they have to evolve and change and I don't think they have the supoort to navigate that. Once one of the pillars like Gura graduates the whole branch will crumble

>> No.32108683

Using an avatar is nothing new, and it will never go away. Maybe the actual term vtuber will die out, but not streaming with an avatar.

>> No.32108916

>>32107247
As long as they will keep intact. Just like my butthole they will become big in the long run

>> No.32109090

I think it’s plateaued already. There’s been a noticeable drop in superchat numbers for a lot of vtubers compared to last year and the year before. Cost of living increases have hurt them on that front a bit but also for a lot of people the magic of a anime girl saying their name wears out pretty quickly. I expect they will reply more on sponsorships and sale of goods in the future as it’s a more reliable model. Vtubers will always be around.

>> No.32109191

>>32107247
It might be pretty relevant for a couple more years but in 20 I think it'd have turned into something else and/or evolved so much we wouldn't recognize it today.

For example, for 3D models to move a lot freely they need mocap rigs most people aren't gonna sit at home and wear every day. So we can't see something like a vtuber cooking stream being the girl actually in a kitchen etc cooking, there is no augmented reality putting the character in our world to see and so on. In 20 years the equivalent of a ring fit stream might (and by "might" I would assume "totally would) actually have the model doing the exercises as the girl does to match including facial expressions, maybe even detecting if she's sweating and putting it on the model and such. People would have to get used to not just having an iphone watching them but a camera and something Kinect-like but way way way more advanced. I can see that when such technologies become available you'll start to see actually-new types of content and/or revolutionarily better forms of what we have now, and either a new company will hold a monopoly on the tech long enough to become a big name or it'll be an arms race between whatever big corpos (holo/niji etc) are still kicking by then.

50 years I dunno, it is possible I think by then we'd have AI/deepfakes available that are extremely-like the real thing and someone will have a forever-Gura or whatever you can actually go talk and play with directly in VR to your heart's content.

>> No.32109697

>>32107247
it'll be as irrelevant as virtual youtubers, you know the ones who were actually YOUTUBING and not just being glorified twitch streamers

>> No.32109801

>>32109090
Numbers would also drop due to ending lockdowns. Honestly HL and Niji got very lucky with lockdown boosting their popularity by forcing everyone online with limited social interaction for almost 2 years.

Also there are now more and more vtubers with a massive indie scene and lots of corpos. Even Suisei said to Sora that if she debuted now it would be harder to stand out due to the numbers. So the numbers get diluted further and further and this will likely just continue.

Oh and lastly given most vtubers are normal people they will eventually run out of unique/funny/interesting life stories to discuss compared to when they were fresh, new and mysterious.

>> No.32109894

>>32107407
What a stupid fucking post. 20 years ago there were scifi shows on television still hawking the mythical personal communication device that let you have 'video chats' with other people. Now there are robot 'dogs' and primitive AIs that can nearly write like humans. You are a shortsighted motherfucker, practically nigger tier.

>> No.32109961

>>32109894
Where is my hover car and personal maid robot?

>> No.32109980

>>32107247
Everyone loves to talk about how the new thing that's been around for <5 years is going to die any second now. Vtubing will probably be around for the rest of our short remaining life as a species with computers and internet.

>> No.32110024

It depends how far the technology can go.

>> No.32110026

>>32109961
The technological principles for hovering never existed. Maid robot? 10 years on the outside.

>> No.32110054

>>32109894
People in the past also said we'd be on Mars by now and have personal robots. That aside rate of progress has rapidly diminished. Just look at Moore's law as an easy example.

>> No.32110066
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32110066

>>32107247
yes and there will be AI vtubers, like actual ones not like Kizuna Ai, that can analyze live chat in real time and cater the stream to maximize engagement

prob be able to generate random "gameplay" where the game is just some mix of hundreds of games to make it look like a game, and she comments like she's actually playing the game

>> No.32110098

>>32110054
>>32109961
Where do you people get your concept of the future, the 1920 world's fair? Look at the things around you and extrapolate.

>> No.32110129

>>32109961
The Jetsons has done incalculable damage to what people actually think "the future" should be. Flying cars were always one of those "did nobody think about this beyond like 5 fucking minutes" deals where they'd have to be extremely controlled because you're basically giving every single adult a personal cruise missile that could go crash into a building/sports event or whatever even if it wasn't intentional.

Everyone would need an airplane pilot's license and extensive training etc, I think maybe the most realistic way they'd work is if average people couldn't actually pilot them directly and they were more like automatic driverless taxis.

>> No.32110186

>>32110026
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GxEhy8hU3LI

>> No.32110228

>>32110098
>Look at the things around you and extrapolate.
That's my whole point - that you can't do that. Growth has already been slowing down and will continue to do so. To think that the 2000s will be just as different from the 2100s as they are from the 1900s is beyond asinine and I will spend my retirement home days laughing at you futurist tards for how wrong you were.

>> No.32110332

>>32110129
I'm a different asshole from this guy and my problem with the concept is that the principle doesn't exist scientifically. It was never scifi, it was fantasy. People look around and say 'we were supposed to have flying cars'. No we weren't. No one ever articulated a principle of antigravity. So we weren't, ever, going to have those. Nor FTL. Robotics and AI are real science and shouldn't be underestimated, especially now that it's actually happening.

"Vtubing" didn't exist 10 years ago. Of course fucking vtubers are going to be a part of our society, forever, from here on. They're only going to get more advanced. It's only a matter of time until one of them is fully automated.

>> No.32110469

>>32110228
You have no concept of how things have radically changed in the last decade because you were a child when it started. Things are not slowing down, not in the slightest.

>> No.32110496

>>32109961
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XTJDkSmDf_s Here's your hovercar, now find me the maid robot

>> No.32110499

>>32110332
>Nor FTL
I'm still mad about that. Why is reality so lame and gay? All that cool shit people dreamed of? Impossible or will take thousands of years if not millions.

>> No.32110611

>>32110469
Nope. Unless you're one of those idiots that considers people in their early 20s "kids". I don't know what the fuck you're smoking if you think today's technology is radically different from the technology from fucking 2012. Sure there have been big social, economic etc changes but we're talking purely technology here.

>> No.32110740

>>32110611
>Unless you're one of those idiots that considers people in their early 20s "kids".
My point is that if you were 32 instead of 22 you would have noticed this stuff. You didn't because it was just your life and how you were raised. You don't even see it. Fish, meet ocean. So yeah, you are a kid.

>> No.32110875

>>32109894
>You are a shortsighted motherfucker, practically nigger tier.
And you're not even considering the relationships between energy, societal complexity and technological progress. It's not that we don't have the potential to achieve all that kind of cool stuff, but that we're starting to run out of the resources that enable such abundance and innovation.

For example, oil makes the world go around. It's an incredibly energy-dense miracle material that has no equal or alternative application-wise in either fossils or renewables. It's used in the production and/or transportation of everything we know and own today, but we're nearing/at global peak oil. When oil discovery and extraction rates plateau and start falling, energy and commodities will start getting more expensive and less available to the public, leading to a halt in development and growth in many specialized sectors, first and foremost the luxury ones. An autonomous sex bot is exactly the kind of niche thing no one's gonna be able to afford to develop, or buy, in our world 10-20 years from now. They'd be too expensive and wasteful for anyone but the top-earning consumers, of whom there will be too few to support such a company.

Furthermore, why would you waste energy, resources and space on something as complex as a consumer-grade sex bot when you could spend the effort developing full-dive VR instead, where people can have even greater life-like experiences at the overall footprint of just a little headset?

>> No.32110954

>>32110875
Those points are fine but they are all orthogonal to the one I was making and responding to.

>> No.32110964

>>32110740
I was in my early 20s BACK THEN. I dunno if that one is on my wording on your reading comprehension.

>> No.32111023

>>32107247
I doubt holo EN still a thing in 2023 at this rate. Maybe a better idol group will overtake them

>> No.32111053

>>32110954
True. I'm a different anon than the one you were responding to. I only really wanted to reply to your post because it gave off the impression that technological progress is inevitable.

>> No.32111131

>>32110875
>vr will be soo good in 20 years
kek people have been saying that since the 80s

>> No.32111283

>>32110499
This is part of what keeps the AI hypetrain going, the idea of technological singularity etc. We know that some of the things we want don't seem possible as far as we can comprehend the universe, and that our joyful time of apparently becoming real-life magicians basically making a bunch of impossible-sounding stuff possible the past few centuries might hit a dead end. So we want to make machines a million times smarter than us to figure shit out.

Even if we did have AIs incalculably smarter than us, they wouldn't instantly gain for example a complete understanding of the laws of physics (just to the degree we can even tell today) by sitting there calculating theoreticals, they'd need experimental validation to be sure, they'd need the machinery. We'd need atomic colliders not LHC-sized but more like ones that would wrap around the circumference of the fucking moon or be in orbit around the Earth. First thing a self-aware godlike-AI would ask us to do would be to build things that might take decades or centuries to help it learn shit. Are we fucked? Maybe. But I mean never say never, shit could go Star Trek for us potentially if you look at the trajectory of how peoples' experiences went from 1800-1900 or 1900-2000.

>> No.32111334

>>32110964
I think we just differ then. SpaceX landed their rocket during that time, and for that matter the same guy ubiquitized electric cars. AI kept advancing until GPT3 start pushing out genuinely interesting and funny text. General Dynamics' Spot became available for sale. Personal phones went from having a camera to being capable of LIDAR.

To bring it back to waifus, yeah, I'm pretty optimistic. Robotics are advancing and so is AI, steadily. It's not like the 80s-90s where it's a pointless pipe dream. I really think we're less than 5 years away from a literal artificial vtuber being deployed. I'd forgive pessimism but every element is actually moving forward, at the moment, to that point.

>> No.32111422

>>32111053
I'm making a very narrow point about the fact that robotics and AI are currently in a renaissance and pessimism is unwarranted. If someone was making these points on USENET in 1993 I'd agree with them.

>> No.32111603

>>32111131
The point is to offer a more efficient alternative to achieve the same experience. It's kind of like why the holodeck from Star Trek is just plain silly and a massive waste of space, especially on an interstellar space ship where a systems failure can mean the death of everyone on board. If you have good enough tech for a holodeck, why not do FDVR instead, offers you the same experiences and only requires you to stock a bunch of headsets in the quarters of your crew.

An autonomous sex bot is going to consist of all kinds of materials, some of them quite environment-damaging and increasingly hard to get such as lithium. It's going to take space in whatever closet you store it in, it's going to cost money to run and maintain, and in the end all it really does is fuck you. Why not spend the R&D on VR instead, so at just the cost of a headset and electricity, your customers can have entire harems to fuck in between adventures in virtual worlds of their choosing?

>> No.32111680

>>32111603
>some of them quite environment-damaging
Fuck the environment. I want a qt asian maidbot to fuck.

>> No.32111701

>>32111603
>in the future you will fuck your oshi
>and you will be happy
ok klaus, I'm in

>> No.32111783

>>32111603
I feel like the tactile experience is the big thing here? Like if they invent VR bodysuits that let you actually feel convincing touch and warmth then there's not much point in physical sexbots but that seems like it might be an even bigger engineering challenge than the sexbots.

>> No.32111796

>>32107247
Doomers say with stagnation comes death and there is no more room to grow in the weeb/streamer frontier, the ocean is as red as it can get. Vesper of Holostars EN said something along the line of there are people out there who don't know what a Vtuber is and we could expand to those people.

If we can really break the barrier to normies, yes, we can grow more. But normies.

>> No.32111810

>>32111783
I think he's talking about Nervgear, not Oculus.

>> No.32111886

>>32111334
Seems so yeah.
>ubiquitized electric cars
This is a perfect example. Electric cars are like 1% of the cars on the road in what world is that ubiquitous? The only real way they're ubiquitous is in discourse. Sure everyone and their mom has heard of electric cars but they're sure as hell not driving one.
>a literal artificial vtuber being deployed
I mean that could be done today. It wouldn't be very good but still. But that's a whole other can of worms. By far the biggest problem with a waifubot is the physical part and making it look, feel and most importantly move in a way that provides a good experience. The AI is unironically the easy part. And that's ignoring the massive political/social shitshow that it will cause.

>> No.32111949

>>32111810
That seems like unfathomable, "maybe ten thousand years from now if global civilization somehow exists then" tech, a far cry from "robot that looks enough like a woman that you want to fuck it".

>> No.32111974

>>32111603
i don't disagree that it's more feasible than a sexbot but realistically it's still not happening anytime soon

>> No.32112024

>>32111783
>VR bodysuits
The point of FDVR (full-dive VR) is that it feels 100% real. Sword Art Online shit. You put the headset on and it hijacks your senses, feeding you the stimuli you need while translating your motor responses as movements within the simulation. It's not tech we have now, but could have 20 years into the future, concurrent with the previously discussed real world sex bots. Our current VR is literally just LCD screens plastered on your face with some gyro/mocap shit tacked on. It's a dead-end sidestep off the path towards actual, BCI-enabled VR.

>> No.32112086

>>32112024
>20 years
anon you're severely overestimating how much we know about the human brain

>> No.32112117

>>32111886
Popularized might be a better term.
>It could be done today, but...
I think you're kind of conceding my point. We're barely on the threshold of such a thing. Ten years ago it was inconceivable. Since this is /vt/ I'll stick to vtubers--yeah, I think artificial ones will be deployed in 2-3 years. I think in 5-6 they'll actually be worth watching.

>> No.32112164

>>32111949
Agreed. The principles don't exist--like flying cars.

>> No.32112249

>>32107247
VTubing is still in its infancy. The art/tech is prohibitively costly, and even the commercial stuff has severe limitations (i.e., full range, 3D motion tracking is the high standard). That should tell you that there is plenty of room for growth for the foreseeable future. It won’t be stagnant until literally everyone can afford a VTubing setup, just like how everyone can now be an EDM “musician”.
And that’s kinda the endpoint of the tech, but it won’t ultimately be for VTubing. This technology will be used for fully immersive 3D virtual avatars, much like an outgrowth from screen names on sites or character models in MMOs. This technology will outlive YouTube and Twitch, I’m sure. And so long as the real world becomes crueler, more depressing, and less pure, there will always be a demand for cute, seiso, fantasies like 3D virtual idols. In fact, I expect that demand to grow as real world supplies dwindle.

>> No.32112297

>>32112249
The real cost atm is the custom model. Most Vtuber setups use nothing more complicated than a webcam. Holos and other upscale types use the Iphone depth camera.

>> No.32112350

In 100 years nation states will not exist anymore, they will be replaced by oshi states.

>> No.32112386

>>32112086
20 years is a long time in terms of new research and technological development in our current day. Furthermore, FDVR is a concept that consistently captures people's imaginations, so whoever commercializes it first stands to get filthy rich off it. Lastly, it'd be an efficient way to offer new, novel experiences to people in a world with ever-dwindling resources, all the while our global population races to hit 10 billion by around 2050. I guarantee you, someone's going to at least try and push for it by then.

>> No.32112450

>>32112386
>there are ten billion people here, let's push for luxury vr
>there are ten billion people here, let's just kill 8B of them
Oops

>> No.32112459

>>32107247
V-Tubing isn't a hydra. If you cut off the heads they won't grow back.

For all of the V-Tubers in Nijisanji and Hololive, there's only a handful who really still have the soul and popularity of the company they represent. If you take Pekora and Marine out of Hololive the company will rot from the inside. If you take out Mito and ChroNoir from NIJISANJI their departures will be so huge the company will take years to recover.

HoloEN is only a Myth graduation away from the fans getting burned out and leaving.

>> No.32112525

>>32112459
It absolutely is a hydra.
>Myth
LOL

>> No.32112552

>>32112450
You know that's not happening, though, otherwise we wouldn't be sitting at 7B right now. Corporates see 10B and view every single head as potential for profit.

>> No.32112607

>>32111949
>>32112164
We "just" need to figure out how the brain works and hijack our biological I/O.
We already can, with current tech today, excite different nerves and read brain-activity.

This isn't a problem of technology but a problem of knowledge, since we know almost nothing in how our brain functions, especially as it relates to our conscious experiences.

>> No.32112747

>>32112607
It may be literally impossible to create a device that knows how to create a certain sensation in any brain. It might have to be designed to be implanted in your head and learn how your brain works your whole life. If it's possible at all I expect it will take hundreds of years of dedicated research to perfect.

>> No.32112835

>>32112459
This is such an alien way of thinking to me. Calli, Kiara, Ame, Kronii and Bae could all graduate tomorrow and it would take me weeks to even notice. I just watch the streamers I like, interactions with other members of the company are just a bonus and all the corp shit like merch, sponsorships and special events are mostly a detriment.

>> No.32112847

>>32112747
The engineering problem of duplicating Ninomae Ina'nis seems pretty tame by comparison.

>> No.32112907

>>32112747
yup given what we know and have tried so far it's almost certainly going to need quite a lot of calibration data from your brain

>> No.32112954

>>32112907
I mean you can learn to control things but the problem of sending signals back is black box shit.

>> No.32113556

Pretty decent thread for once. Sometimes off topic but good earnest work from the involved.

>> No.32113724
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32113724

>>32113556
It's filled with actual, in-depth discussion, even from the guys gone off-topic. It's nice that /vt/ is still capable of threads like this.

>> No.32114159

>>32113724
I'd have liked to see more about how robotics are going to affect vtubing outside of the ability the cum inside. I think it's totally possible that it wraps back around into 3d

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