/vt/ - Virtual Youtubers

>>15033489

>>15033504

>>15033489
>>15033504
I would explain if I could read japanese, but from the pretty pictures I can tell this is a probability graph of how likely it is for fubuki to have encountred a golden fish by now

>>15033489
Day | Magikarps encountered that stream | Magikarps encountered in total | The chance of getting at least one shiny Nagikarp in that many encounters

>>15033589
>43%
>still no shiny
Wtf

>>15033489
Number of encounters (that day) | Total | Probability of fishing one or more shinies
Calculating the first two are obvious. You count for the encounters, the total is a running total you just add the prior day.
The fishing percentage is calculated as 1 - (4095/4096)^n , where n is the total number from the total column. It's a 4095/4096 chance to not find a shiny, so each time you don't find a you multiply by 4095/4096 which is why it's exponent is n. Now that's the probability of never catching a shiny, and since probability ranges from 0 to 1; 1 minus (4095/4096)^n that gets you the probability of the alternative, which is actually having caught at least one shiny by that point.
>>15033504
Next is a graph of the total number of encounters plotted against the probability you'd calculate with that number of encounters. They also tell you the hours. So at 1800 encounters it's about the 30 hour mark, 12600 encounters it's about the 210 hour mark.

TL;dr
Magda, Fubuki is very unlucky when it comes to catching this golden Karp.

>All this for a low effort gacha hunt for a shiny magikarp.
What a garbage graph. This has been the least entertaining that Fubuki has been in a long time and their enablers allowed it.

EOP: https://www.reddit.com/r/Hololive/comments/reycjg/i_counted_the_total_number_of_magikarps_that/

>>15033610
THAT'S XCOM BABY

>>15033489
>>15033504
>>15033569
They are retarded. Getting a shiny is completely random independent events, meaning you failing a million times before doesn't make your next chance any more likely to get it. Which is that 1/4000 or so, always. It's just bad luck.

>>15033786
this whole thing has literally saved FBK from her fall to irrelevancy
be thankful

>>15033489
Cumulative probability of catching a shiny magikarp in X encounters.

>>15041891
https://blog.minitab.com/en/understanding-statistics/difference-between-probability-and-cumulative-probability

>>15042163
you think the majority of population can tell the difference? Cumulative probability is always misleading to them. They see that % rising up and think "oh, fbk must be getting pretty close to getting that shiny then". No, shes not, the chance is always the same, and very low.

>>15033786
I know you don't watch Fubuki or Hololive for that matter.

>>15042971
Dumbass. If you line up 1000 people and get them all to fish at once it's obvous the chance for one of them to catch a shiny is higher than just one person. Fishing over multiple attempts is the same thing extended over time.

>>15046711
You're misinterpreting that anon. Fishing over multiple attempts is more likely to get you a shiny; but if after 1000 attempts you fish again, is that next fishing attempt, the 1001th attempt specifically more likely to get you a shiny than the first fishing attempt when you started? No, the chance is still 1/4096, the exact same as you started. If with the 1000 people you have they all fish at once, is the 50th person in line that fishes simultaneously any more likely to catch it than the 99th? If the 50th was one second later in time than everyone else (hence the 1000th person to finish), they aren't anymore likely to catch a shiny. There's no good luck attached to them, they are essentially at the start of the line as if they were the 1st person to try to catch, the prior 999 people's fishing attempts doesn't matter. The 999 people all failing to catch a shiny before that person just speaks to how unlucky that situation is, but the bad luck already happened and was determined with the 999 people, it doesn't influence future good or bad luck, the 1000th person is essentially a new person as if it was their first time fishing. Fubuki's thousands of magikarp fishing attempts doesn't mean she's any closer than the day she started, it just means she's incredibly unlucky, because the bad luck of failing to catch a shiny some 6000 attempts or whatever she's at by now already happened. It's bad luck that she failed to catch it in 6000 attempts. However that doesn't tell you that she's suddenly going to get good luck. So she's in no way "closer", we just can measure how unlucky that she's got to this point is.

>>15047555
That's entirely irrelevant though. Fishing more does give you a better chance. The fact they're independent events literally does not matter. If you keep dipping your hand in the jar you will come up with the gold ball eventually. Nobody is saying that she has a better chance on each individual attempt so you're sperging out over something nobody said or even implied

>>15047754
>If you keep dipping your hand in the jar you will come up with the gold ball eventually
Pokemon RNG doesn't behave like a ball pit. Even a slot machine would be a better point of comparison.

Probability only matters when talking about a large sample size. If 1000 people flip a coin 10 times the total result will be 50% heads 50% tails with extremely slight deviations. But one person might get heads 10 times in a row and another might get tails 10 times in a row.

>>15047754
Assuming you're the same anon, you responded dumbass to someone saying that Fubuki is not "closer". So it is relevant. Here's the very clearest example. You have a page of 1000000000000000 numbers (separated with commas) that range 1 to 4096. Like 5,67,235,1,28. Say 4096 represents getting a shiny. It's extremely likely that somewhere on that page there is 4096 because generating a 4096 isn't that unlikely an event. You look at a random 10 numbers on the page and see 421, 13, 245, 136, 5, 346, 29, 54, 27, 432. You decide to look at another random 10 numbers on the page, but you are no more likely to find a 4096 in the next 10 compared to the first 10. You are not "closer". Your prior attempt didn't matter. But within the page as a whole there is extremely likely to be a 4096, because generating a 4096 is not rare so it's likely to happen somewhere in all the numbers on that page. But whether you found one or not in your first 10 numbers, makes you not more or less likely to find a 4096 in your next 10 numbers. There's no getting closer from the prior attempts. Fubuki is not any closer to getting a shiny magikarp than when she started.

Zzzz I just want Pekora to do 1 day of Shiny Magikarp hunting and btfo the White Fox with her shit luck.

>>15042971
The only one that can't tell the difference is you retard. Nobody thinks Fubuki has a 90% of catching it on her next attempt.

>>15051278
Mori already did

>>15064928
It wasn't a day. It was several days as well.

>>15033504
>93.6%
何回やっても確率は増えることがないのでこの予測はおかしい
それとコイキングは「ボロの釣り竿」で最も釣れやすいけど、「ボロの釣り竿」自体そもそも釣れにくいので、普通の厳選よりさらに難しい

個人的にはフブキはさっさと諦めたほうがいいと思う

>>15050466
Not closer yes. But if you stop trying the chance is zero. But if you keep trying for 1/4096 forever you’ll eventually get one.

>>15068734
Yes I agree (well technically "eventually" is wrong but for practical purposes yes) and 1/4096 isn't that rare in the grand scheme of things so she should keep trying. I cared more about being pedantic about the math.

>>15067386
ジャップ、ここ版違いなので5chに戻れ

ITT: idiots who assume Pokemon uses cumulative probability, when it does not(it's 1/4096 every time, no matter how many attempts)