/vt/ - Virtual Youtubers

Is there some easy rule of thumb to calculate odds of hitting your draw ie richi on 5th draw with 3 tiles left being x% to hit before the game ends? It seems like people in bronze at least just discard completely at random after dumping honors early on so it should be possible to calculate reasonable well. I'm sure once I get better paying attention to peoples discards would eliminate the need for it, but right now I'm stuck trying to figure out if I should just be slamming richi for a shitty wait or trying to get my hand into better shape a lot of the time. pic related for poker equivalent