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[ERROR] No.23020456 [Reply] [Original] [4plebs] [archived.moe]

Well done. You have made it to the end of the dungeon, and found the three doors.

Your studies tell you that the nature of the doors is thus: one leads to the Akashic Library, the realm of pure knowledge, where all secrets and magic may be learned. The other two lead to hell.

When you place your hand on a door, one of the other two will open, revealing itself to be one of the doors to hell. You then have twelve seconds to choose whether to keep your hand pressed to the door you originally chose, or switch and press your hand to the other closed door. At the end of the twelve seconds, you will be sucked into the door you are touching. If you are not touching a door, you will be sucked through the open door into hell.

What do you do, adventurer? Will you choose a door and stick to it? Will you choose, then switch? Or will you turn back whence you came, and know in your heart forever that you are a coward?

>> No.23020492

>>23020456
I leave.
I'm a fucking Fighter, I don't need no fucking magic! I hit things with my bit of sharp metal!

>> No.23020494

Monty Hall problem. Always switch doors.

>> No.23020553

>>23020494

This. Basic statistics problem. Your odds of picking right the first time is 1 in 3. The odds of you picking right the second time is 1/2.

Always switch

>> No.23020595

>>23020494
This.

Also, I'm a wizard. Time stop, scry through the doors.

>> No.23020614

>>23020494
I don't get it. So if one of the doors you aren't touching reveals hell, why is it to any advantage to switch? It's even odds between the remaining two.

>> No.23020644

>>23020595

You peer into Hell and are driven irrevocably mad.

>> No.23020657

>>23020553
>>23020614

Once it's down to two doors, it is not, in fact, 50/50.

>> No.23020673

>>23020657
How the hell not? You have two choices.

>> No.23020693

>>23020644
>implying I don't vacation in hell on my spare time
Wizard, bitch.

>> No.23020702

>>23020644
Then it doesn't matter if I switch or not. One of the doors to hell is opened and I'm mad already.

>> No.23020737

>>23020614
Read the Wikipage, it explains it.

>> No.23020743

>>23020673

You have two choices. But you also have information.

You had three choices, and then one was taken away, NOT at random, but by a logical process.

Use that information. What is your choice, and what are the odds?

>> No.23020755

>>23020657

You're right. It's actually 2/3. When I said it was 1/2, my brain was failing me.

>> No.23020776

>>23020737
That's the biggest load of bullshit I've ever read. You're still making a choice when it's down to two, so 50/50.

>>23020743
Your choice doesn't matter since it's an even 50/50 choice. You have one door you chose that may or may not be Hell and a door you didn't choose that may or may not be Hell.

>> No.23020782

>>23020673
Theres a 1/3 chance that any door you pick at first is the right one.

Then, one of the hell doors is revealed.

The door you initially picked still has a 1/3 chance of being the library.

That means the other door has a 2/3 chance.

So you switch, and 2 times out of 3 you go to the library.

My real solution will be to exclaim, loudly: "Note to self: big rock" I will then look under the nearest big rock to find a message I left for myself once I gained the knowledge from the library to send messages back in time. Badda bing badda boom, I know which door to pick. Classic Bill and Ted beats Classic Monty Hall

>> No.23020795

>>23020776

>I either will or won't win the lottery. There are only two options, so it's 50/50!

>> No.23020800

>>23020782

Saved me the effort of typing it

>> No.23020802

>>23020673
Let's label the doors A, B, and C, there is an equal probability that the Records are behind any of the three doors. Let's say you always pick A and switch once a door is revealed, if the Records are behind B or C you will get the Records, giving you a 2/3 chance. If you select A and stay you have a 1/3 chance of getting it right as it has to be behind A not B or C to get it right.

>> No.23020813

>>23020795
Not remotely the same thing.

When one door is revealed, you can make two choices. One is to stay and one is to change. There's no difference. You're still making a choice between two choices. It's identical to reducing the problem to two doors and choosing one without adding a third and a chance to switch.

>> No.23020837

>>23020813

see

>>23020782
>>23020802

>> No.23020847

>>23020813
You don't get it and it seems like you're really making an effort to stay that way.

>> No.23020850

>>23020800
The Monty Hall solution or the Bill and Ted solution?

The Kaiji solution would be to realize that the probabilities are too easy to calculate, and that the game is probably rigged for 0% success rate. He would look for the invisible door, or try and reach the library through hell, or hit both doors at once and see what happened.

C'mon /tg/, try harder to break this game. Scrying dude had the right idea.

>> No.23020855

>>23020837
Doesn't change anything I said. As far as I can tell my logic is correct and the entire foundation of the problem is invalid, and honestly, stupid as hell.

>> No.23020857

>>23020782

...your spoilered solution is actually completely correct. It relies completely on the stated parameters of the game, and does not require you to have any abilities or equipment not stated in the OP (such as wizard magic.) It increases your odds of success to 99%.

Which is to say, 99% chance to choose correctly, 1% chance to destroy the universe through temporal paradox. And you get bonus points for clearly explaining the standard solution, as well.

You... win, or kill us all. Well done.

>> No.23020858

It doesn't matter. It's the Monty Haul problem, if you win you get the mcguffin, if you lose you get to pillage hell.

>> No.23020864

>>23020802
Except that when you pick A, either B or C is eliminated as a candidate. One of the doors WILL swing open, revealing it as a portal to hell.

>> No.23020866

I say loudly two incantations of doom and then proceed to clean up hell for sweet loot and xp.

>> No.23020870

>>23020813
If you're bad at probability theory, sure.

The Monty Hall is a pretty classic problem and you can read the math behind it or go look at Monte Carlo simulations. Since the reveal is always a non-winning door the odds when you switch are 2/3.

>> No.23020871

>>23020847
I disagree with the basic assumptions of logic being used here. See >>23020813

>> No.23020883

>>23020855
Still
>>23020847

>> No.23020889

>>23020850

Nah, scrying dude tried to make up extra stuff. Causality-destroying dude worked out a solution using the extant elements of the puzzle.

>> No.23020891

>>23020855

That would be why you are filtered out by the entry test.

>> No.23020897

The red one because it's pretty.

>> No.23020898

Mmm. Yes. The old Monty Haul Dilemma.

While you are statistically more likely to be correct if you change your decision, I simply bring two hirelings.

I have the first switch doors. If he goes to the library good for him.

If he doesn't, then I still see where it is.

The second hireling checks to make sure it doesn't move.

THEN I'm satisfied that it will remain in place and do that, unless an actively sadistic entity is in control of it.

In such an event, I ensure that there are contingencies in place that allow me to extricate myself from hell.

I then find the person that built the system and beat their skull in with a rock.

If not, I use the library to find a means to make people stop using these stupid door systems. Assholes.

>> No.23020902

>>23020871
The logic you're disagreeing with is not an assumption, it is statistically and mathematically proven.

>> No.23020908

>>23020891
At this point I'm rolling my eyes at the entire thing. The entire thing is so...so...dumb.

>> No.23020913

>>23020864
It's not eliminated dumbfuck. What the opening of the door does is that it combines the probabilities of B and C together. If it's behind either B or C, which is 2/3rds, switching will get you to the Records. The chance of A getting you the Records will not change from 1/3rd.

Let's expand the problem. If there were 1000 doors, you pick one, then it swings open 998 doors and ask if you want to switch is it still 50/50? Because if it's in any of the 999 doors you didn't pick you'll get it by switching as it won't accidentally open that door.

>> No.23020917

>>23020908

>how do i into mathematics

Please leave and never come back

>> No.23020921

>>23020902
Pfft. Horseshit. You have a choice between two potential things and the reveal of the door doesn't change your knowledge in a meaningful way. You choose to stay with the door or switch, and either way it's a 50/50 choice.

>> No.23020932

>>23020921
Must be trolling.

>> No.23020935

>>23020921
... read the thread dumbfuck. Read
>>23020913
>>23020802
>>23020782
>>23020743

>> No.23020940

>>23020850
Once one of the doors to hell reveals itself, just go "no, fuck this, I'm out". Then you have someone else try his luck instead, only he starts with the door you now know goes to hell. This reveals the second door to hell.

Should any of this backfire and land s all in hell, then play baseball with Satan's testicles until he agrees to send you where you want to go in a hurry.

>> No.23020941

>>23020935
Doesn't change anything or the base logic of my posts.

>> No.23020943

>>23020921

If you are really this dense when it comes to basic statistics, maybe a simulation will help:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/08/ience/08monty.html?_r=0

Play 10, 20, 100, or however many you like without switching, then do the same with all switches.

Then you'll know through experience that switching yields a 66% chance of success

>> No.23020956

>>23020941

It doesn't change your base logic because your base logic is wrong.

>> No.23020963

>>23020956
My base logic is right. At this point I'm just gonna close and ignore this thread, since it's like a twilight zone where logic doesn't work for anyone but me.

>> No.23020976

>>23020921
When you touch the first door, you have a 1 in 3 chance of finding the out.

When that fails, you then have a 1 in 2 chance of finding the out.

All together, you have 1/2 divided by 1/3 chance to find the out.

>> No.23020983

>>23020963

>implying anyone is this stupid

At the very least you could have read the explanation that >>23020943's simulation gives

>> No.23020984

>>23020871
>I disagree with the basic assumptions of logic

I think I found your problem.

This is a math problem. You are not entitled to your opinion. You are either right or wrong, and you happen to be wrong. If you can't understand the math involved, you can very simply test it.

Take three playing cards, a queen and two deuces. Shuffle them, then place them face down on the table. Say "I will pick one, remove a deuce, and then switch." Pick a card by placing your left hand on it. Look at one of the cards you didn't pick. If it's a deuce, remove it. If it's not, look at the other one (it will be a deuce) and remove that one. Then place your hand on the remaining card.

Do this sixty times. I'm not being hypothetical here, actually do it. I predict you will wind up with your hand on the queen well more than half the time, closer to two thirds, because that's what the math says. But if you don't trust or understand the math, don't argue about it, test it. Put up or shut up.

>> No.23020987

>>23020963
Okay, stay bad at math if you really want to then...

>> No.23021002

>>23020963
Look, I actually do want to help you, it's an interesting probability experiment and its answer isn't intuitive.

Imagine that you always pick A and always switch. If the Records are behind door B, then door C will be revealed and switching gets you the treasure. If it's behind door C, door B will be revealed and switching will get you the treasure. If it's behind door A either door B or C will be revealed and it will not get you the treasure.

In 2 out of the 3 possibilities switching will not lead you to getting the Records.

>> No.23021004

Mathematically speaking, wouldn't taking your hand off and placing it back on the very same door also mean the chances of that door being the correct one have improved?

>> No.23021007

Back to the original dilemma, you still only have a 2/3's chance of passing at the best of times.

Time paradox rock guy is the only way to guarantee success and even that relies on timey-wimey principles.

>> No.23021022

>>23021004
Only if there are changing variables...

Like changing portal locations or severe second guessing disease.

>> No.23021023

>>23021004

No, that door did not have its odds increased when they opened one of the other two.

>> No.23021027

>>23020943
It's important to note that the Monty Hall problem confuses not just normal people, but also confuses certain knowledgeable individuals who ought to know better.

However, it ALSO relies on very specific conditions to be true in the way it means to be.

People like Cecil Adams have gotten it wrong. It's not surprising that some average people don't get it either.

>>23020963
If you don't like their logic you can just watch an episode of Mythbusters devoted to it. They test it practically by using random doors and participants who always switch or always stay the same. Their recorded results come out to 66%.

And remember - I'm just using that as an example. Many others have presented other examples which you can personally verify if you like.

This is an anonymous message board, remember. It isn't like you lose cool points for admitting that you got a math trick that even famous people sometimes get wrong, wrong.

>> No.23021029

>>23021002
It's not worth it. I've argued this with people who simply refuse to accept it. It's so counter-intuitive that there's no point.

>> No.23021034

>>23021002
Are we discussing the Monty Hall Paradox?

Shit, this one's been confirmed by Mythbusters, why are we even arguing?

>> No.23021049

Just leave this here, I will.

>> No.23021050

>>23021034
Because they didn't split my gun barrel like a banana.

>> No.23021064

>>23021034
>>23021027
I think the most interesting part of the episode was that none of their original test choose to switch doors. Some guy figured this problem out, realized natural inclinations preyed on it and then made a fucking game show. Ballin

>> No.23021076

>>23021050
Well maybe they should have used a Chinese gun

Those have been exploding pretty nicely lately.

>> No.23021077

>>23020963
Think of it this way. Imagine there were a million doors. After picking one, all of the unchosen doors except one open revealing hell. What's more likely, that you made the one in a million guess, or that the other closed door was the correct choice?

>> No.23021090

>>23020857
I won the thread......EXCELLENT! *air guitar*

>> No.23021109

>>23020987
>4chan.jpg

fukken saved

>> No.23021118

>>23021023
Nonsense... reality doesn't work that way. Whether or not you are touching a door does not change the fact that it.is one of two options left.

>> No.23021120

>>23021034
Because an aeroplane can't take off if it's on a treadmill

>> No.23021149

>>23020456
Oh.. it's that gameshow.
Don't you have to offer another price to pick for backing down after you picked a door and one was revealed?
It should be gold/money.

>> No.23021163

Welp, good thing I actually clicked this thread rather than chuckling slightly as I scrolled past it. I remember the existence of this probability trick, but my memory told me the solution was to never switch doors. Derp.

Also now I'm gonna go rewatch Bill and Ted.

>> No.23021165

>>23021049

Ahh, very clear.

To phrase it another way, what are the chances that the final door, the door that wasn't picked first and wasn't opened, the door you have the option of switching to, is a Hell door?

Well, one of the Hell doors was already opened, and one of the doors COULDN'T be opened because it was chosen. So the only way the last door can be a Hell door is if the door chosen first was the Library door. Which is a 1 in 3 chance.


A third way to put it. Imagine that you knew one of the Hell doors to start with. You pick that one, the other Hell door opens, and the only door left is the Library door. 100% success! Now, you DON'T know either of the hell doors to start with. But there's a 66% chance that the door you pick at random is a hell door. So, 66% chance that you randomly choose a hell door, the other Hell door reveals itself, and the last one is the Library!

>> No.23021167

>>23021149
The game show didn't kill you when you picked the wrong door.

>> No.23021193

>>23021118
>laughing physicistsmathematiciansandwizardspg

>> No.23021212

>>23020913
I was kinda with the guy you were all calling a dumbfuck until this post. this one explained it quite well.

>> No.23021236

>>23020456
>being shoved into hell
>implying I don't have a quickened plane shift scroll on hand
>laughingpreparedmystictheurges.jpg

>> No.23021243

>>23021118

TRY IT.

You are IN reality, so you can test its rules right now. Get some cards. Try it. Try it thirty times. Try it three hundred times. WATCH IT HAPPEN.

Isn't it strange that so many people disagree with you, including mathematicians and newspapers? Shouldn't you check whether you're right? Aren't you at all confident, aren't you at all curious? You have a clear belief, a clear prediction. Test it. Find out, through your own experience, whether it's true.

>> No.23021265

>>23021165
Now it makes sense.

>> No.23021266

>>23021149
That would make it a fair, zero-sum game.

Calculating the EV of this scenario is interesting. You will give (2/3)(all knowledge)-(1/3)(death).The Bill and Ted trick exploits this by assuming all knowledge gives infinite power, making the have have infinite positive EV- you never lose. Take away infinite power and your strategy breaks down. The "walk and away and open nothing" solution picks a different strategy- (1)(gain nothing) to make it a zero-sum, no loss game by exploiting the fact that there is no cost to play.

>> No.23021316

Does it matter? I reached the bottom of the dungeon, so I must be a powerful wizard.

I divine the correct answer.

But seriously, either switch doors, or leave entirely. Hell is nothing to mess with.

>> No.23021342

>>23021266

Not necessarily infinite power. The only power required is the ability to send a message back in time.

Remove the Library door. Replace it, instead, with a door containing 1 dollar and a note that flies back in time and says which door is correct. Even though you now have 2 eternal damnation doors and 1 single dollar bill door, you should always play, because you can't lose.

>> No.23021346

Hell? I just came from there.

>> No.23021363

>>23021316
>Hell is nothing to mess with.
Hell is XP, loot, and hot demon bitches. I'd take the hell door from the start, clear the place out, then head back to the doors and then try for the library one.

>> No.23021379

>>23021316

I remember being in at least one campaign where the DM *started* us at the bottom of the dungeon, so no.

>> No.23021384

>>23021342
Would you go into eternal damnation just to send a message back to another time?

Can you live with the assurance that another "you" won, while you get to sit in hell for eternity?

Could be a good idea for a BBEG. come to think of it. He's you! but corrupt!

>> No.23021404

>>23021384
>while you get to sit in hell for eternity?
>implying

>> No.23021410

>>23021342
No, you should always play if you find the note.

If you don't find the note, then opening a door will send you to Hell.

>> No.23021451

Why would I want infinite knowledge?

Fuck that, I'd rather get there on my own steam.

>> No.23021495

>>23021410

Right, true enough. Which still reduces the games outcomes to "find note, open door, gain a dollar" or "open no doors."

>> No.23021573

>>23020913
Thank you for explaining it that way, this problem always baffled me. Increasing the number of doors helped, I don't know why it's not usually explained this way.

>> No.23021586

>>23021410
>>23021495
You could potentially find a hastily scribbled note in your handwriting

DO NOT MESS WITH TIME

I really need to give my players a note like that...

>> No.23021605

>>23021586

But... but large prime factorization...

>> No.23021679

>>23020456
Suddenly, a Lovecraftian twist: the realm of pure knowledge contains such great volumes of forbidden, incomprehensible knowledge that it is worse than hell.

I get the fuck out of there.

>> No.23021726

>>23021605
You can only play the game once...

>> No.23021735

>>23021451
But you still need to learn it. It's not "ENTER THE DOOR AND INSTANTLY KNOW EVERYTHING".

>> No.23021743

I think I see the problem here. People are making the assumption that each time you move your hand from one door or another that which door leads to the library changes. Also that it limits you to changing doors only once.

>> No.23022026

Here's as simple explanation as it can possibly get.
There's a 1/3 chance that the door you pick is the good one, 2/3 chance that it is one of the other ones.
That chance doesn't change if one is revealed to you.

>> No.23023425

>>23021163
This guy here again. Just rewatched both B&T movies. I am in a good mood and it is all your fault /tg/.

Also holy shit Primus was in Bill and Ted's Bogus Journey? This made my night even more enjoyable to discover. Guess I didn't know who they were the first time around. Anyway I just wanted to tell someone that, and the Internet is someone.

Anyway...

Be excellent to each other.

Party on, dudes.

>> No.23023443

>>23020456
always change to the non-hell door, the odds are slightly better.
You now only have a 33% chance of going to hell.
wait, shit, that is still pretty bad isn't it

>> No.23023471

>the realm of pure knowledge
Nah, takes all the challenge out of it. So sue me, I don't want the fast and easy method. I'll take the slow and hard route to gain my knowledge. Besides, if I end up going to hell, it'll be because of all the fun stuff I'll get to do.

>> No.23023601

Truest answer?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zYKOsaJmk

>> No.23023736

This problem always irks me.

I know that it's been proven that switching doors yields the reward most often, but I can't reason why.

You start out with three times one third.

You pick one third. Another third is revealed to be incorrect and removed from the game.

You're left with two options, but for some reason the one you didn't pick is worth 1/2 and the one you did originally pick is still worth 1/3.

How can 100% of the options available to you in that point of the game only add up to 5/6?

>> No.23023788

It seems to me that whether this should be a mathematical problem or not, putting it in the form of a challenge for someone who navigates dungeons, means you should expect them to use dickery on the challenge.

Manage to place a hand on each closed door.
(attached or detached)

Nail one of their ears to something with an earring that has a contingency rez spell.
(kill self before time runs out. hey 12 seconds is 2 rounds in D&D)

Wall of force over the open hell doorway?
dimensional anchor so the room can't kick the character out when it resets?

Just for extra dickery... there's a spell that gives you an extra pair of arms, soemhow manage to touch all three doors at once.

>> No.23023810

>>23023736
Do the example people have suggested earlier in the thread.

You have a room of 100 doors. You pick one. Your chances of picking the right one are 1/100. Right?

He flips open 98 doors to reveal hell. Demons wave hi.

There are now two doors. One is a hell door, the other is a normal door. There is a 1% chance that the door you picked is the "good door". There is a 99% chance that the other door is the library door.

It's not a 50/50 chance when the doors are reduced. Your chances of picking the right door on the first pass are equal to whatever the odds were then, your chances on the second door rise up in comparison.

It's tricky math, but it makes sense when you make it a big enough problem.

>> No.23023840

>>23023736
The other door is now worth 2/3, your math is wrong.

Basically, think of it like this.

The chance of it being Door A is 1/3.

The chance of it being either Door B OR Door C is 2/3

If Door B is eliminated, the total chance of it being Door B OR Door C is still 2/3. Therefore, since it cannot be Door B, the chance of it being Door C is now 2/3, while the chance of it being Door A is still 1/3.

The key to this paradox is the OR opperand.

>> No.23023843

Pretty simple, I get an Immovable Rod and tie a rope made of celestial unicorn hair or something to it. Door can't fucking suck me in now can it?

>> No.23023849

>>23023736
You notice you are confused. You look at the reality and see that something is wrong. You know that probabilities have to add up to 1. That's great. Now go, use your powers to do science. Find the part of your explanation that doesn't work.

Or, you know, read one of the explanations above. Either works. Though this one doesn't make you progress towards infinite knowledge, and if that's not your thing why are you playing this game.

>> No.23023852

>>23023843
I think it'll just suck in your two disconnected halves.

>> No.23023955

Let's make a deal scenario. Always change. Never keep your first choice. I'll leave you to figure out the logic.

>> No.23024014

>>23023736

To get started on understanding the logic, try first looking at it with two sides: yourself, and the door-opening "mechanism". Out of three doors, or a hundred, or a million doors, you are choosing which to open purely at random. The "mechanism" is choosing which to open knowing exactly which are the correct and incorrect doors.

Knowing that, it becomes easier to understand why your chances of picking the correct door randomly out of a hundred are extremely slim, while the mechanism's chance of revealing it to you are very high indeed; it will remove nearly all negative doors, whereas you can do no such thing. The door you choose randomly still only has a 1% chance of being correct.

>> No.23024056

>>23020782
This is why I despise relativity and statisticians, artificial odds manipulation

>> No.23024089

>>23020943
question, how good is a 16% improvement in odds? Because it doesn't seem like much. The problem breaks down more obviously when you use larger numbers of doors, but at three doors, the gain seems too slight.

>> No.23024117

>>23024089
It's 33% odds improval... Unless you talk about improvement true answer has over false answer. But still. 16% is the difference between hitting on 15 and hitting on 12 on d20. And 33% is a difference between hitting on 15 and hitting on 9. Though you should be able to do the calculations yourself, otherwise tabletops might not exactly be the best hobby for you.

>> No.23024224

Another way to phrase the problem (and change it a bit) is to stipulate that the unchosen doors somehow merge into one.

The demon Monty Hall presents you the three doors, each one has an equal chance to lead to the prize, the other two lead to a goat infested hell.

You get to pick one of the doors.

Then the demon Monty Hall lets you pick again:
choose the door you picked
OR
the pair of discarded doors.

This is what it boils down to.

>> No.23024267

I fix grates over the doors so I can't be sucked in, then check each door individually until I find the one that isn't hell.

>> No.23024338

>>23024267

You get sucked in tiny pieces, congrats.

>> No.23024370

>>23023471
but it's not INSTANT KNOWLEDGE, you still have to work for it.

>>
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