Election Probability

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Election Probability NotNateSilver Thu Oct 27 16:26:00 2016 No.8440953 [Reply] [Original]

How are the probability calculations for the american presidential election made?

It obviously cannot be calculated theoretically and it also cannot be calculated experimentally (i think), because it's a single experiment that has never happened and that will never happen again.

I'm a Statistics undergrad and i'm reaasonably fascinated about how these probabilities are calculated.

>>	Anonymous Thu Oct 27 17:11:12 2016 No.8441052 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-users-guide-to-fivethirtyeights-2016-general-election-forecast/ That lists the factors which are used and the general principles of how they're used, but not the specifics.

>>	Anonymous Thu Oct 27 21:57:06 2016 No.8441557 File: 53 KB, 800x606, best timeline.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>8440953

Anonymous Thu Oct 27 22:21:31 2016 No.8441596

>>8440953
>It obviously cannot be calculated theoretically

I hope your first semester at college is going well. It's good that you're asking questions, man. You will be much better off when you realize it's actually quicker and more reliable to research these things than ask them on 4chan.

I'm teasing you about your first semester because holy shit man, obviously it's calculated 'theoretically'.

Anonymous Thu Oct 27 22:24:07 2016 No.8441601

>>8441596
>calculated 'theoretically'.

When republicans and democrats choose their presidential candidate, do you think they "calculate" anything or just pick the one who has the greasiest palms?
Seriously, even if the general election isn't rigged, everything else up to that point is rigged. That's how we ended up with 2 nutjobs that NOBODY feels good voting for.

>>	Anonymous Thu Oct 27 22:46:46 2016 No.8441639 >>8441601 the DNC was verifiably rigged, but the RNC was not and the general election almost assuredly will not be.

>>	Anonymous Thu Oct 27 22:49:05 2016 No.8441646 >>8441639 > but the RNC was not Trumptards everyone

Anonymous Thu Oct 27 22:53:23 2016 No.8441652

>>8441601
it's common knowledge, and certainly not a secret, that corporations whose operations are on such a scale that it is economically advantageous to donate sizable sums of money to a campaign in return for favor from said candidate on relevant policy issues, will in fact do so.

It's also common knowledge that humans are greatly affected by marketing campaigns - which is why there is so much money put into it.

I could go on and on, but hopefully you get my point. The elections are part of capitalist country and are not removed from that economic system, and that is the sense in which they are "rigged". The media isn't "rigging" the election against Donald Trump, it's just that most people publishing their articles think he's a shitty candidate and express their opinion. That isn't "rigging" the election. Nobody is rigging the polls, for fucks sake. Most polls done on any topic, not just presidential polls, are on questionable grounds.

Everybody in the educated world knows how money influences elections and policy, don't act like it's some revelation your amazing brain came up with, you're just an edgy teenager.

We ended up with two candidates that nobody likes because (for Hillary) in most cases the only way to succeed in our political system and get to the point where you are a viable presidential candidate requires being a soulless hack, and because (for Trump) people are so easily swayed by advertisements and blatant lies and appeals to emotions and think that just because the current establishment sucks that option b is by default better: but guess what, option b is Donald Trump, you idiots.

Anonymous Thu Oct 27 23:04:29 2016 No.8441676

>>8440953
>It obviously cannot be calculated theoretically and it also cannot be calculated experimentally (i think), because it's a single experiment that has never happened and that will never happen again.
What? In statistics you don't do empirical experiments by replicating an event. You instead take a representative sample and find the distribution. It should be obvious to anyone with half a brain that the probability results for elections are based on polls in each state. A sophisticated approach would be to count votes based on the polled individual's likelihood of voting. Then you can tell the probability of who is going to win each state and by how much. This then tells you the expected amount of electoral votes, and the probability that one will get enough to win. So it's based on both experiment, aka empirical data, and theory.

Anonymous Thu Oct 27 23:11:03 2016 No.8441688

The election is rigged.
Read Wikileaks and watch Project Veritas.
The globalist establishment will not allow a random fuck up their plans of a one world government.
Trump and the American people want constitutional rights. The US constitution does not allow globalism so the elite are destroying it.
1st year arts students larping as graduates of physics on /sci/ will stick their head in the sand.

Anonymous Thu Oct 27 23:11:46 2016 No.8441689

Every election they ask me who is going to win, and every 4 years I tell them.

Not because of who I want to win, but because I can see who is going to win. It's like a curse, actually.

This election will not be run by Trump, as much you all hate to hear this.

You can quote me on that Nov 9th.

>>	Anonymous Thu Oct 27 23:13:26 2016 No.8441693 >>8441676 you are wasting your time and talent explaining elementary sampling theory to a /pol/esmoker

>>	Anonymous Thu Oct 27 23:14:13 2016 No.8441695 >>8441652 Donald Trump is a bumbling buffoon and Clinton is a skilled criminal, which one would you want robbing your house?

>>	Anonymous Thu Oct 27 23:14:28 2016 No.8441696 >>8441688 >forgetting to throw the world "sheeple" in there a couple times for good measure.

>>	Anonymous Thu Oct 27 23:15:07 2016 No.8441698 >>8440953 That's Nate Silver's Secret Sauce recipe and who cares how it's calculated. He's just a pundit playing push-the-needle.

Anonymous Thu Oct 27 23:15:37 2016 No.8441699

>>8441689
We know the outcome of every single election as they are all rigged. Globalist establishment picks a candidate and they win by changing votes to their preferred candidate on Soros electronic voting machines.
It's depressing people are gullible enough to believe that western nations are democracies.

>>	Anonymous Thu Oct 27 23:16:43 2016 No.8441702 File: 9 KB, 228x221, 1477378315122.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>8441699 >>8441688 Kek has blessed /sci/

Anonymous Thu Oct 27 23:19:06 2016 No.8441709

>>8441699
>picks a candidate and they win by changing votes to their preferred candidate on Soros electronic voting machines.
You think it's determined this late in the game? Why do you think there is an electoral college, and the popular vote actually doesn't mean anything?

Don't be depressed, just focus on things in life that matter.

>>	Anonymous Thu Oct 27 23:22:31 2016 No.8441716 File: 53 KB, 620x479, 1477267378020.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>8440953 Nate Silver has burned his reputation this election by becoming a partisan pundit.

Anonymous Thu Oct 27 23:23:34 2016 No.8441723

>>8441709
The popular vote votes in states. The states electorates aren't divided by popular vote percentage, the winner of popular vote of a state takes all.
Why do you think Texas is removing electronic voting machines right now?
They found out this week they were changing votes to Clinton on them.
Most states are refusing to remove the rigged voting machines so only Texas will have an honest electoral vote winner this election.

>>	Anonymous Thu Oct 27 23:24:55 2016 No.8441732 >>8441716 Make sure to vote, early voting statistics already indicates a record turnout this year.

>>	Anonymous Thu Oct 27 23:30:20 2016 No.8441748 >>8441716 he's right, though

>>	Anonymous Thu Oct 27 23:31:59 2016 No.8441753 >>8441723 Well God bless Texas, then.

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 00:16:06 2016 No.8441820 File: 23 KB, 2000x1333, 2000px-Flag_of_Texas.svg.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>8441753 God Bless The Lone Star State!

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 02:09:22 2016 No.8442029 >>8440953 You're implying they're calculated and not made up

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 02:30:30 2016 No.8442055 >>8442029 This. Electronic machines are easy to rig. Put in a few lines of code to tell machines to redirect 12% of votes for Trump to Clinton and you're set for an easy "win".

>>	memeking Fri Oct 28 08:07:34 2016 No.8442304 >>8441695 THE BUFFOON... I DONT WANT A SKILLED THEIF STEALING MY SHIT, I WANT SOMEONE WHO WILL FUCK UP AND GET CAUGHT...WHAT THE FUCK KIND OF ANALOGY IS THIS?

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 17:30:50 2016 No.8443003 >>8442304 that's the point he's making, I think you are literally retarded

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 17:38:51 2016 No.8443016 >mfw unironic Trumptards come into this thread Hillary has already won, accept it

Anonymous Fri Oct 28 17:46:07 2016 No.8443027
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>>8440953
Daily reminder that all so called prediction are made by people without skin in the game.
Nate Silver was 20 times wrong for every time he was right, but people only remember the right prediction.

Now stop bothering me with such mumbo jumbo and let me flaneur through the streets.

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 17:46:25 2016 No.8443028 >>8441688 >Trump >Wants Constitutional rights What? Has he openly declared that he'll dissolve the DEA, ATF, TSA, and NSA?

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 18:17:11 2016 No.8443077 File: 354 KB, 760x572, 1475432116440.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>8441688 tips tin foil fedora

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 18:25:16 2016 No.8443097 >>8443027 Nassim "Squid Ink" Taleb I hope it's really u

Anonymous Fri Oct 28 18:32:44 2016 No.8443114

>>8443028
>NSA
It's against the constitution to spy on citizens, brainlet.

>>8443077
2012 wants its meme back

>>8443016
""""""""""""""won"""""""""""""""""""
Do you live under a rock? Texas is removing electronic voting machines right now because they found out they're rigged.
The other states are refusing to remove rigged voting machines because you know why.
Read the thread before posting.

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 18:33:19 2016 No.8443116 >>8441723 Sauce on that story?

Anonymous Fri Oct 28 18:36:16 2016 No.8443125

>>8443003
No the comparison is retarded, politicians are like parasites, none of them really want to destroy their country no matter how greedy. We have choice between Trump who has been proven to be greedy and a buffoon, and Hillary who has been proven to the corrupt politician archetype. Trump can be assumed not to want to crash entire thing and probably has enough egoism to push shit for his sake, the bad thing is that evev with good intentions he may crash things. Hillary will try to swindle but generally she won't crash anything.

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 19:28:30 2016 No.8443209 >>8441601 I'm a huge Hillary supporter, and every one of my friends and neighbors support her. You can't say no one likes Her when some people obviously do.

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 19:31:49 2016 No.8443220 >>8443116 It's false. Texas is run by republicans anyway, if anything they're trying to suppress votes (and losing)

Anonymous Fri Oct 28 19:34:15 2016 No.8443226

>>8443125
>robbers want to destroy the house they rob

also if you think Trump is going to be able to "crash" anything, you're retarded. it'll be a shitty 4 years but the president isn't a dictator (yet) and basically the rest of the government and congress will keep him in check and make sure nothing absolutely ridiculous happens. hillary on the other hand has the political advantage to destory her opposition and/or propagandize the general public into agreeing with her insane actions and can actually accomplish the terrible warmongering deeds we know she has in mind

>>8443209
yeah, lots of people I know support hillary, and they're all retarded millennials who buy into her propaganda and post shit on facebook like "remember le 1933!!! we cannot let hitler happen agen!!!!"

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 19:39:20 2016 No.8443229 >>8443209 >Her why the caps, is she a fucking god now or something?

Anonymous Fri Oct 28 19:45:06 2016 No.8443236

>>8443229
Mistake, but I'm keeping it since it triggers your jimmies friend.
:^)
>>8443226
>Hilary will invade any country

As opposed to Drumph, who wants to bomb Iranian ships?

Being firmer on Russia is a good thing, Putin has gone too far recently, and hopefully the Iron Lady can reel him in.

>yeah, lots of people I know support hillary, and they're all retarded millennials who buy into her propaganda and post shit on facebook like "remember le 1933!!! we cannot let hitler happen agen!!!!"

Why not? Some people value American Democracy.

>>	None !bbTPcVPzaw Fri Oct 28 19:48:09 2016 No.8443241 >>8443236 Are you aware of how corrupt she is?

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 19:51:00 2016 No.8443245 >>8443241 yeah

Anonymous Fri Oct 28 20:05:27 2016 No.8443271
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>>8443241
There really isn't evidence of corruption outside of Trump echo chambers.

The fact is that she isn't corrrupt, but due to Republican prosecution of her, she's gained the smell of corruption from and towards the ill-informed.

It's a meme by this point, and I don't see any evidence that isn't straight up doctored or made up ( like that Donald Duck is stalking me video)

The right has an insane hatred of The C word.

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 20:13:12 2016 No.8443280 >>8443236 >>8443271 >Drumph >literally compares trump to hitler >literally believes hillary is not corrupt as, so you confirmed my suspicion that you are <20 years old please keep your political opinions to facebook posts, thanks

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 20:21:06 2016 No.8443292 >>8443236 >>8443271 >>8443280 Hillary is not desirable but Trumptards overstate how "corrupt" she is.

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 20:27:52 2016 No.8443304 File: 158 KB, 850x1082, khorosho.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>8443280 >>8443292 Hillary will lead to increased disorder, therefore it is favourable that she wins. Baby's first thermodynamics

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 20:33:05 2016 No.8443314 >>8443280 You are literally like those Forwards from Grandma memes. >Obama is teh Anti-Christ, he ate the sun!!! Kenyan?

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 20:37:40 2016 No.8443328 >>8441646 Please elaborate on the nature of the rigging of the RNC, unless you're just a triggered leftist

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 20:39:19 2016 No.8443335 >>8441652 Wow u type a lot of words but u dont do ne resrch good job guy

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 20:43:44 2016 No.8443343 >>8443328 Go back to your safe space, it's well known how the r's try to suppress voters and their rights J'accuse only works if you aren't the guilty one to begin with

Anonymous Fri Oct 28 20:44:24 2016 No.8443344

>>8441693
Wow, sassy combacks but clearly still hasn't read the podesta emails which were so readily suggested and so easily available. If you google "most damaging wikileaks", you'll find reddit's compilation of explainations of the contents of Podesta's emails and links to the emails themselves for proof. I assure you, even a brainlet like yourself will have no trouble reading the entire page in 5 minutes and the true nature of the poll rigging should become clear to you. Hint for severe brainlets: keep an eye out for the magic word: "oversampling"

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 20:46:10 2016 No.8443347 >>8443280 He didn't compare him to Hitler once. Please keep your political opinions and poor reading comprehension to >>>/pol/

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 20:47:12 2016 No.8443351 >>8443344 >using the brainlet meme >not knowing what oversampling is >wasting his life investigating emails for conspiracy theories and posting on /pol/ sad!

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 20:48:00 2016 No.8443353 >>8443343 It's "well known" that I fucked you're mom

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 20:49:03 2016 No.8443357 >>8443351 Are you literally ctr?

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 20:49:49 2016 No.8443360 >>8443116 some /pol/ links to catholics4trump and motherjones

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 20:49:51 2016 No.8443361 >>8443292 >Hillary isn't desirable. Who isn't she desirable to? I voted for her in 2008 at the caucus and the primary and I was bummed when Obama lost. >>8443344 >the emails in which a rosetta recipe was the biggest deal

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 20:53:44 2016 No.8443372 >>8443314 nice projection >>8443347 >"ur le pol because u dont agree with me"

Anonymous Fri Oct 28 20:54:42 2016 No.8443376

>>8443361
This is the lowest quality bait I have seen in all my years if you are not an actual paid shill. I encourage the lurkers in this thread to go read the podesta emails (or just a highlight reel). I assure you there is plenty of blunt and frank talk of poll rigging, pay for play, and worse. Anyone who tries to tell you the most incriminating email is about pasta is eitherthe most butthurt brainlet of all time and never read any of them, a paid shill, or they're having a laugh at your expense. Normally I like to watch newfags get trolled but this is an important issue to me.

Anonymous Fri Oct 28 21:00:12 2016 No.8443385

If any bluepilled brainlet itt thinks there's no rigging of polls and media, I'd like to draw your attention to a shady group called correct the record. Paid shills who may be itt right now. I challenge disbelievers to post the name of the director of correct the record, Benjamin F s h e n and enjoy the ban that the tentacles of the Hilary campaign have wormed all the way into 4chan. If you reply to this post without naming him you are a shill.

Anonymous Fri Oct 28 21:11:40 2016 No.8443403

>>8443236
Man are you in grade 8 or what?
Drumph? Do you like John Oliver faggot?
"muh Russia has gone too far" I am literally triggered by your willful ignorance. You are everything wrong with this board and America you uniformed brainwashed opinion spouter

Anonymous Fri Oct 28 21:14:23 2016 No.8443407
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>>8443372
>Accused me of being an edgy teen first

I've been voting since 1964 and I'm a political junkie. Go back to /pol/ and lick your """"God emperors""" stinky loser feet.
>>8443376
>People having different opinions from me is bait.

Grow the fuck up son and smell the liliacs.
>shill

Lol, it surprises me that you really can't grasp the fact that a lot of people wouldn't like a retarded racist sexist serial molester with Alzheimer's to represent our country.

Hillary is the best choice in America, not voting for her is enabling and abbeting a traitor to our republic.
>>8443385
>double posting

I'm sorry for ruining your safe space and triggering you.

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 21:15:53 2016 No.8443411 >>8443385 I can't find any links to this guy at all on the internet, is it exactly how you spelled it without the spaces? I'm willing to donate my ip to science

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 21:17:01 2016 No.8443413 >>8443403 >people disagreeing with my ""opinions""" hurt me so much that I want to lock them up for using their first amendment rights. And you wonder why they call you fascists

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 21:17:58 2016 No.8443414 >>8443411 https://mobile.twitter.com/fischbein

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 21:18:11 2016 No.8443416 File: 57 KB, 218x199, 1366171308625.gif [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>8443407 >not voting for her is enabling and abbeting a traitor to our republic ...words fail me

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 21:19:56 2016 No.8443420 >>8443407 I notice you didn't post his name, care to offer an explaination for that, faggot?

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 21:20:11 2016 No.8443421 File: 197 KB, 1155x527, image.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>8443385 >>8443411 Correct the record only exists on Twitter/Facebook. It's amusing that you think everyone has to be paid to argue against your ill informed """opinions"""

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 21:23:34 2016 No.8443429 >>8443420 >names are magical according to the retards Fishbein, fishbein, fishbein. Will he jump out of the window at me?

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 21:24:57 2016 No.8443432 >>8443376 >HE WAS PAID TO DISAGREE WITH ME Fuck off back to your echo chamber. >>>/pol/

Anonymous Fri Oct 28 21:26:11 2016 No.8443435

>>8443421
>only exists on twitter and facebook

Now I know you're a shill because a retard would have already stopped posting and a troll would be more creative. If CTR only exists on facebook then why are you quivering in your diapers at CRT HQ at the realization that I owned the fuck out of you by challening you to post his name?

If you can post his name and not get banned, you'll show everyone the big bad Trump supporter was wrong, so why don't you just post bnjmn fschbn's name you low energy faggot shill?

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 21:27:15 2016 No.8443436 >>8443429 Post his first and last name ya dingus

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 21:28:49 2016 No.8443441 >>8443432 I said either that or it's low quality bait, but I think we're beyond the point where that could ever be in question you insufferable shitposter

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 21:29:31 2016 No.8443443 >>8443435 I'm sitting at home and I don't know if this is some sick fetish of yours. You seem so fucking crazy though lmao, "I'm too scared to say someone's name" >>8443432 I don't get how some people are so dense about politics.

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 21:31:59 2016 No.8443447 >>8443414 I am Benjamin Fischbein I have been summoned from the depths

Anonymous Fri Oct 28 21:34:10 2016 No.8443449

>>8443429
Are you unable to read, do you think that deliberately misreading and misrepresenting my post will make me butthurt and you will win, or do you think nobody will follow your little arrows and read the post for themselves? Clearly I was mocking your willful ignorance while providing a key word that even the laziest lurker could ctrl+f and bring themselves up to speed on the matter in time for the next retarded shitpost. If you legitimately thought I was referring to the magical Harry Potter power of the word OVERSAMPLING in the PODESTA EMAILS then you have aome hardcore autism my friend.

0/10 arguing
7/10 thread derailing

>>	Benjamin Fischbein Fri Oct 28 21:37:13 2016 No.8443451 did it work

Anonymous Fri Oct 28 21:37:21 2016 No.8443452

>>8443447
Idk what kind of special characters you had to pull off for that one or if the ban is already over but ctr is real alright

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/amp.reddit.com/r/KotakuInAction/comments/58x858/why_is_4chan_banning_anyone_that_mentions_ben/

https://8ch.pl/pol/res/23391.html

https://encyclopediadramatica.se/index.php?title=Benjamin_Fischbein&diff=945816&oldid=prev

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 21:38:23 2016 No.8443456 >>8443443 Say his name then...

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 21:39:06 2016 No.8443458 File: 91 KB, 879x513, image.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>8443447 Hail master, your servants approach. >>8443449 >I'm using big words I can't understand because that's what the smart liberals seem to do

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 21:40:30 2016 No.8443461 >>8443451 >Benjamin Fischbein Benjamin Fischbein Now you say it retard. >>8443452 >He's eating from his own shit Why not cite Brietbart too

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 21:40:39 2016 No.8443463 >>8443452 maybe they cancelled it when the word got out? I pussied out and just used my phone, I don't know if that affected it somehow

Anonymous Fri Oct 28 21:41:43 2016 No.8443466
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>>8443458
Which of those words are even big and on what grounds do you base your claim that I don't understand their meaning?

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 21:42:59 2016 No.8443469 >>8443463 I was banned two days ago for saying it on my computer but works fine on my phone now

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 21:44:52 2016 No.8443471 File: 59 KB, 300x477, 1476566637599.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>8443469 yeah they probably recalled it once word got out

Anonymous Fri Oct 28 21:49:35 2016 No.8443476

>>8443461

Have some more citations, my angered friend

http://superduck.rocks/post-87430/fyi-posting-the-words-benjamin-fischbein-on-4chan-gets-you-a-14-day-ban

Please keep denying it! Keep claiming that CTR only exists on facebook and Twitter! You couldn't be more instrumental to my cause!

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 22:03:36 2016 No.8443490 Proof of rigged polls for any lazy lurkers who tldr'd this thread http://www.mostdamagingwikileaks.com

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 22:12:05 2016 No.8443498 >>8443471 >muh Jews /pol/ >>8443476 Just did it m8. Reality has a liberal bias again. >>8443490 I'm sure trump hates riggers. We all know what a racist like him wants to do to riggers

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 22:18:40 2016 No.8443501 >>8443498 I think this shill is broken, someone call Soros

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 22:28:31 2016 No.8443511 File: 740 KB, 809x743, 1475620664646.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>8443498 Any actually sane person who doesnt like Trump hates hillary too. Hope the pay is good though.

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 22:31:37 2016 No.8443516 >>8440953 I put a lot of stock in polls and prediction markets until after Brexit. Apparently, the prediction markets were wrong right up until the votes started coming in.

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 22:40:02 2016 No.8443523 I wish I had a US citizenship just to vote for trump. No sane person wants to see hillary as president.

Anonymous Fri Oct 28 22:50:02 2016 No.8443534

>>8443501
Better Soros than Koch, at least he knows how to party
>>8443511
>Liberals are always condescending to me, it must not be because of my wrong views or their inclusiveness , their TONE OF VOICE MAKES THEM WIN

Drump has the best people on the case, as always
>>8443523
A ton of russian bots feel the same as you do.

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 23:03:26 2016 No.8443551 >>8443523 I'm sane and I want Hillary as president. in b4 no true scotsman

>>	Anonymous Fri Oct 28 23:37:34 2016 No.8443602 >>8443534 Must be the effect of having a good president like putin, so they can discern another good president. >>8443551 What the fuck is wrong with you? Are you majoring in humanities?

Anonymous Sat Oct 29 01:43:58 2016 No.8443745

>>8443116
http://www.breitbart.com/texas/2016/10/25/texas-county-switches-paper-ballots-software-glitch/
http://www.inquisitr.com/3642366/early-voters-in-texas-say-their-votes-were-changed-from-trump-to-clinton-by-voting-machines/
http://rightwingnews.com/top-news/texas-officials-execute-emergency-protocol-remove-electronic-voting-machines/

>>	Anonymous Sat Oct 29 10:53:23 2016 No.8444225 >>8443534 How did it feel when your boss called you "nerd virgins"? You obviously haven't been to 4chan before your gay insults won't offend anyone

>>	Anonymous Sat Oct 29 11:14:26 2016 No.8444258 File: 97 KB, 412x351, image.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>8443280 >oh no, someone disagrees with me >I know, I'll call him kid.

>>	Anonymous Sat Oct 29 11:22:15 2016 No.8444277 File: 324 KB, 448x468, image.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] Holy shit this thread. This is literally why we have /pol/. Why are you on this board?

>>	Anonymous Sat Oct 29 11:30:14 2016 No.8444292 This thread was a terrible idea. What the hell were you expecting? The methodology is literally right on the website and the thread only opens up more room for /pol/-tier shit.

>>	Anonymous Sat Oct 29 11:59:22 2016 No.8444318 File: 83 KB, 600x1110, 2016.10.23 - Oversample 1_0.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>8444292 This thread was a terrible idea if you can't handle the truth

>>	Anonymous Sat Oct 29 12:00:34 2016 No.8444320 File: 14 KB, 473x231, az-poll-by-party.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>8444318

Anonymous Sat Oct 29 12:51:30 2016 No.8444388

>>8444318
What exactly do you think this means? Notice how he refers to "our polling". Clearly he's talking about the campaign's own data. Campaigns frequently oversample in order to understand how much they are supported among different ethnic or political groups so that they can tailor their campaigning to these groups to maximize votes.

>>	Anonymous Sat Oct 29 13:36:31 2016 No.8444464 >>8444388 What do you make of the next highlighed line after that one you willfully ignorant plebian

>>	Anonymous Sat Oct 29 14:18:55 2016 No.8444513 But can we all agree that the US has the most retarded voting system? Why change to proportional representation?

>>	Anonymous Sat Oct 29 14:27:38 2016 No.8444527 >>8444464 I make that he wants to maximize what information they can get out of their polling. How is asking for recommendations from a polling agency "rigging" polls? Wouldn't the exact opposite be necessary to rig polls?

>>	Anonymous Sat Oct 29 14:59:40 2016 No.8444581 >>8444318 There's nothing there dude. Stop being such a retard.

>>	Anonymous Sat Oct 29 15:02:39 2016 No.8444592 Wtf is this thread? Gtfo /pol/tards. We are not interested in your stupid opinions without any logical basis.

>>	Anonymous Sat Oct 29 15:11:55 2016 No.8444609 File: 28 KB, 642x423, Poll.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>8440953

Anonymous Sat Oct 29 15:30:34 2016 No.8444630

>>8444527
What do you think they mean by media polling, you homosexual deviant? Internal DNC media? Damn those thoughts must bother you, I'm facing some hardcore deep emotional angst here, you are totally unwilling to offer anything of a rubuttal to any of my points bar flat out denial and general refutation. If you REALLY think they were only talking about "internal" polling when they said "media" polling, then explain (and actually explain this time with evidence and logic not just denial and conspiracy accusations like a retarded faggot) >>8444320
THIS
Now let's connect a few dots here brainlets and shills. Oversampling, media polls, and now look at the chart I've highlighted. This is the polling data for a recent arizona reuters poll which showed Hillary with a slight lead. Look at the numbers (in the left column) of democrats, republicans, and independants ( n=# for those who are statistically illiterate), and tell me if anything seems funny to you about those numbers considering that republicans outnumber democrats by 5% in Arizona. Now when you notice the pattern in these numbers think back to Podesta's email about oversampling and consider that Reuters's parent company donates to Clinton.

Butt devastated shills and overemotional brainwashed tv watching Americans will explode with anger at this post and will tell me to go back to "pol" and that I am a "conspiracy theorist" but rest assured there will not be a single logical, fact-based refutation of my evidence among them.

>>	Anonymous Sat Oct 29 15:30:51 2016 No.8444631 >>8444581 >oversamples for our polling >leaked emails >there's nothing there brainlet

Anonymous Sat Oct 29 15:52:29 2016 No.8444659

>>8444630
>What do you think they mean by media polling, you homosexual deviant? Internal DNC media?
The phrase media polling does not refer to polling by "the media" it refers to polling on something in the media, such as political ads. Again, why is he referring to it as "our polling" and why is he asking for recommendations from the polling company instead of telling them what to do?

>I'm facing some hardcore deep emotional angst here
You're not facing it, you're projecting it. My posts are calm, yours are filled with emotional language and immature insults.

>you are totally unwilling to offer anything of a rubuttal to any of my points bar flat out denial and general refutation
I clearly explained what I think the emails are saying. You have not even made a point as far as I can see, you just posted a few vague quotes and expect everyone to come to the conclusion that this proves the polls are rigged. You're projecting again.

>If you REALLY think they were only talking about "internal" polling when they said "media" polling, then explain (and actually explain this time with evidence and logic not just denial and conspiracy accusations like a retarded faggot) >>8444320
>THIS
And once again, instead of making a point to be rebutted you simply post a pic. Now if I attempt to interpret what you're trying to say are you going to whine in the next post that I'm strawmanning you? Or should I simply refuse to respond until you use your words like a big boy?

Let's see, you are probably implying that this poll is oversampled because there are way more Democrats and Independents than Republicans, and of course we all know that the number of registered Republicans is very close to the number of registered Democrats, and the number of registered Independents is much lower than those two. However the flaw in your (assumed) reasoning is that this poll did not ask for what individuals are registered as but what they "usually think of themselves as".

Anonymous Sat Oct 29 15:54:23 2016 No.8444662

>>8444630
>>8444659
Continued...

Now can you think of a possible reason why what people think of themselves as would not reflect the distribution of registered Democrats and Republicans? I'll let you try to figure that out before I give you the answer.

Anonymous Sat Oct 29 15:58:54 2016 No.8444670

>>8444630
>Butt devastated shills and overemotional brainwashed tv watching Americans will explode with anger at this post

I dont even have a tv. I'm not angry and I still think you're a retard who really likes conspirancy theories. Also, I dont understand why are you out from /pol/.

Take it easy trumpet. It is over, you were promissed to win, but you lose. After this trump will rage a little to the media and then come back to his luxury life and to bang his 10/10 companion lady.

Gtfo of /sci/, please.

>>	Anonymous Sat Oct 29 18:59:40 2016 No.8444995 >>8444670 Wow u sure showed me with all those spicy insults and groundless assertions. Sure man I'll leave sci forever

>>	Anonymous Sat Oct 29 19:04:00 2016 No.8444998 >>8444631 Try again retard, it's number 22 www.mostdamagingwikileaks.com

>>	Anonymous Sat Oct 29 19:06:09 2016 No.8445001 >>8444318 >2008

>>	Anonymous Sat Oct 29 19:06:14 2016 No.8445002 >>8444998 I meant to direct this to >>8444581

>>	Anonymous Sat Oct 29 19:07:51 2016 No.8445003 >>8445001 What's your point? You think they stopped before we caught them because they're good people and their consciences caught up with them?

>>	Anonymous Sat Oct 29 19:10:04 2016 No.8445005 >>8444659 >>8444662 1: go to www.mostdamagingwikileaks.com 2: Check #22 3: ??? 4: be BTFO

Anonymous Sat Oct 29 19:18:23 2016 No.8445012
File: 431 KB, 660x745, image.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]

>>8444630
/pol/tard epically butt-blasted in his own troll thread. Jesus this is sad. Is it because you're used to people taking this shit seriously in your echo chamber? What's it like walking around outside your mom's basement and trying to pretend that everyone else are the stupid ones?

>>	Anonymous Sat Oct 29 19:19:27 2016 No.8445015 >>8444995 Thanks. Please do that.

Anonymous Sat Oct 29 19:23:29 2016 No.8445022
File: 163 KB, 941x962, d9109a3f83c2c9fa058cd6e13db667081544cc589f852f4ca8d79a9076941f30.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]

>>8445012
We can all take a lesson from this guy and never give up in the face of any evidence based forced anal reaming, no matter how BTFO you are!

www.mostdamagingwikileaks.com
#22 folks

>>	Anonymous Sat Oct 29 19:25:19 2016 No.8445026 Sci is a bunch of liberal cucks

>>	Anonymous Sat Oct 29 19:31:43 2016 No.8445034 File: 79 KB, 606x670, c34b3490abea6af52504845cc7383a8476e3ffbd7a11fb3f61095fc6ebb3987b.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>8445026 Either that or CTR is out in full force tonight

>>	Anonymous Sat Oct 29 19:33:29 2016 No.8445041 www.mostdamagingwikileaks.com Read #22 Shills ass fractured into another dimension

>>	Anonymous Sat Oct 29 19:34:37 2016 No.8445045 File: 13 KB, 193x255, 6a6ae48c9b63005a241e255f3bd179bd31021d2ef4098791241a14c88e4211e1.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>8445015 Delete your account.

>>	Anonymous Sat Oct 29 19:37:20 2016 No.8445053 >>8445012

>>	Anonymous Sat Oct 29 19:38:26 2016 No.8445057 File: 748 KB, 1024x719, 1aa50cd2729bcafb5ee07f73daa2cedcba07f4d49c7740861eaf3f608dca6e01.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>8445053

Anonymous Sat Oct 29 19:41:28 2016 No.8445063
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>>8445057
www.mostdamagingwikileaks.com
All shills have been blown out of the the entire thread by #22

They have no rebuttal, not even the typical "u r le pol haha drumpfkin". Just utter devastation.

>>	Anonymous Sat Oct 29 19:51:05 2016 No.8445077 they know slide it

>>	READ !fmJRnC5rvE Sat Oct 29 19:52:55 2016 No.8445079 http://www.mostdamagingwikileaks.com/ http://www.mostdamagingwikileaks.com/

>>	Anonymous Sat Oct 29 20:09:01 2016 No.8445105 >>8445077 Bump RIP in peace shills

>>	Anonymous Sat Oct 29 20:19:03 2016 No.8445124 >>8445057 Show me a single shred of evidence of this and I'll believe you.

>>	Anonymous Sat Oct 29 20:20:03 2016 No.8445127 >>8445124 Here u go >>8445063

>>	Anonymous Sat Oct 29 20:21:23 2016 No.8445133 >>8445127 Link to the original wikileak, I'm not clicking your shady malware site.

PART 1 Sat Oct 29 21:13:09 2016 No.8445207

>>8445133
now # 23 because a new leak was added as # 11

>shady malware site
you wish, get web of trust dummy

23. Rigging media polls through oversampling

https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/26551

https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails//fileid/26551/7326

https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/15442

“I also want to get your Atlas folks to recommend oversamples for our polling before we start in February.”

“so we can maximize what we get out of our media polling.”

[For Arizona] “Research, microtargeting & polling projects - Over-sample Hispanics… - Over-sample the Native American population”

[For Florida] “On Independents: Tampa and Orlando are better persuasion targets than north or south Florida (check your polls before concluding this). If there are budget questions or oversamples, make sure that Tampa and Orlando are included first.

PART 2 Sat Oct 29 21:17:31 2016 No.8445212

>>8445133
[For National] “General election benchmark, 800 sample, with potential over samples in key districts/regions - Benchmark polling in targeted races, with ethnic over samples as needed - Targeting tracking polls in key races, with ethnic over samples as needed”

“The plan includes a possible focus on women, might be something we want to do is over sample if we are worried about a certain group later in the summer."

>This is why you see the skewed polls show Clinton +12 when other more accurate ones show Trump +2. The high Clinton ones oversample democrats by a HUGE margin to get desired results (sometimes 20-40% more Democrats sampled). Many are created by organizations that donate to Hillary, and some are even conducted by her own SuperPACs!

>They do this to make Republican voters feel discouraged and not come out to vote if they think their candidate will lose.

>Just look at this example in Arizona: Clinton +5, but Democrats were oversampled by 34% (58 out of 100 Democrats, 24 out of 100 Republicans)! Good lord. Unfortunately the colluding media only reports on the final number, without reporting on the over-sampling.

>story of the Arizona poll mentioned above
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/10/19/about-that-pro-clinton-arizona-polling-narrative/

>polls conducted by Clinton's superPACs
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/10/11/media-polling-fully-exposed-about-that-nbcwsj-clinton-11-point-poll/#more-123009

PART 3 Sat Oct 29 21:22:40 2016 No.8445221

>>8445133

more relevant to the image you asked about regarding GEMS, here's a single shred of evidence

http://blackboxvoting.org/docs/diebold/diebold-gems-18-14-release-notes-Readme1-18-14.pdf

>ctrl+f "weighted"

proof that this software is in use currently in the USA:
http://elections.wi.gov/elections-voting/voting-equipment-premier

>>	PART 4 Sat Oct 29 21:27:22 2016 No.8445232 >>8445133 AND JUST A REMINDER http://www.mostdamagingwikileaks.com/media-collusion http://www.mostdamagingwikileaks.com/ >Now #23 due to new leaks

>>	Anonymous Sat Oct 29 21:28:25 2016 No.8445237 shills on suicide watch

Anonymous Sat Oct 29 21:30:13 2016 No.8445241
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>>8445005
I don't see how it's related to what I said but...

>Hillary’s camp excited about a black teen’s murder (to help her agenda)
So I clicked the link and what the email says is that the article is great. You really don't need to take quotes out of context and distort their meaning to argue against Hillary Clinton. It really isn't that hard, yet you /pol/tards can't seem to help yourselves.

Anonymous Sat Oct 29 21:45:35 2016 No.8445270

>>8445241
I like your picture, textbook illustration of an ad-hominem

why don't you "go back to /hm/" buddy? Ha sure showed you

if you had bothered to read
>>8445207
or
>>8445232
you surely would realize that the leak in question has been bumped down to #23
I think it should have been quite obvious in any regard, as when you scroll to what is now #22, #23 should also be visible on the screen and the title is clearly the information which you claim to be seeking but seem to be having a hard time finding

If I were to allow myself to address your latest attempt to derail the thread by pretending to be autistic, sifting through the baseless ad-homs, honestly go fuck yourself.

> quote "thing is great"
> ["distorted"/"out of context" title]: author is excited about thing

I'll give you latest derailing attempt a 7/10
- included a funny picture, illustrating your insult
- plausible misinterpretation of evidence at hand
- pivot and counter with a new accusation

honestly better than most, I could have believed you were an authentic retard. Shills take not of this man, study well and one day Correct The Record will be only a memory of your formative years

>>	Anonymous Sat Oct 29 21:49:03 2016 No.8445277 hillshills getting bullied itt rn senpai baka

>>	Anonymous Sat Oct 29 21:55:27 2016 No.8445283 >>8445207 This has already been debunked in this thread: >>8444388 >>8444527 >>8444659

Anonymous Sat Oct 29 22:02:14 2016 No.8445299

>>8445270
Those are the same out of context quotes I already explained. Over-sampling is done on ethnic or political groups in order to reduce error from low samples if a campaign wants to determine the level of support among those groups. It has no connection to polls which determine the overall level of support in a certain area. Where is the evidence of rigged polls?

Anonymous Sat Oct 29 22:15:51 2016 No.8445320

>>8441652
>most people publishing their articles think he's a shitty candidate and express their opinion

Really? You don't think that maybe they're being paid to create negative publicity about Trump considering the news organisations they work for are heavily funded by democrats?

>>8441695
>Trump is a bumbling buffoon
Trump is far from a bumbling buffoon. His job is to get a message across, which he has clearly been extremely effective at considering the level of support he has garnered despite the most expensive and widespread propaganda campaign in history being used to denounce him.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_aFo_BV-UzI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MvVfj0ov8k8

For apparently being the most intelligent 4chan users some of you sure are dumb as shit when it comes to common sense stuff.

>>	Anonymous Sat Oct 29 23:15:23 2016 No.8445412 >>8445283 You're mom has already been debunked in this thread Thank you for correcting the record

Anonymous Sun Oct 30 01:26:12 2016 No.8445561

>>8445299
Look at the numbers for that Arizona poll, keep in mind they did not correct for that +34 Democrat sample, they just worked with that raw data as is, as if it were a good representative sample. They're doing this in all the mainstream media polls and if you actually read the links I posted and weren't such a zit on the ass of society you would see why. The +34 D Arizona poll is exceptional, they're not all that retardedly oversampled, but they are all oversampled. Read the links faggot read the links read the links reeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 01:28:50 2016 No.8445564 >>8445299 Go back to /b/ kid this is really above your level

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 01:31:09 2016 No.8445569 >>8445283 No it hasn't you dickmunching fupa-sweat-licking cum guzzling mamial autismo deluxe

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 01:54:04 2016 No.8445585 >>8443027 Nassim's total tear down of Nate Broze was extremely amusing and highly informative at the same time. I'd never realized just how pointless/misleading all the electoral prediction markets/methodologies were until he exposed them.

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 02:12:17 2016 No.8445597 >>8445561 See >>8444659 >>8444662 Read the fucking thread before shitting out your stale opinions /pol/tards.

>>	Dude leaf lmao Sun Oct 30 02:15:34 2016 No.8445598 >>8445597 What's your point you /hm/ngous faggot

Anonymous Sun Oct 30 02:19:04 2016 No.8445599

>>8445598
Point is, Drumpf is so anathema to mainstream conservatives that they identify as Independent in polls. Hence why you see fewer people identifying as Republicans and more identifying as Independents. That's the difference between the percentages of party-registered voters and self-identified voters.

Anonymous Sun Oct 30 02:31:45 2016 No.8445611

>>8445598
Also, if you read the methodology for the poll this came from, it actually weights results according to party registration percentage, so the distribution of the sample doesn't matter:

http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/10/19/arizona-republic-morrison-cronkite-news-poll/92390100/

Dude leaf lmao Sun Oct 30 02:34:05 2016 No.8445613

>>8445599
Do you even havisfaction a single satisfact to snack that up?

Even if your gay homo John Oliver fagboi buttlove fuckfest manorgy asslicking abortion of an opinion was correct, how would that justify using 50% dems?

You would go to the ends of the earth to defend your precious waifu Hillary, offering hot opinions like it's nobody's business, but in the end Hillary a SHIT!

*unsheaths katana*
*teleports behind you*
Nothin personal kid

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 02:38:13 2016 No.8445618 >>8445613 Yes, yes I get it already. Can't you just play along so I can post some more?

>>	Dude leaf lmao Sun Oct 30 02:39:09 2016 No.8445619 >>8445611 Provide a direct link to the data that shows their claimed "weighing" they only even claim to have done after all of this came out. I aint clicking your sketchy ass virus site

>>	Dude leaf lmao Sun Oct 30 02:40:32 2016 No.8445622 >>8445618 What's that fuckboi? You've had enough already? But we've only just begun! unzips pants

Hillary Rodham Clinton !iiA80eLVpY Sun Oct 30 02:46:59 2016 No.8445633
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I do declare there is nothing to see here, anyone who claims to have evidence of poll rigging is a conspiracy theorist, period. The polls are fair and unbiased and the polling companies only contribute to my campaign because DRUMFPTPF is le crazy WWIII nuke button Putin's puppet amirite?
Anyone claiming to have such evidence should "go back to pole" as they are a "trumpet" lol xD
Also do not read wikileaks remember that is illegal unless you are a pro journalist who works for aol time Warner comcast or fox.

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 02:50:44 2016 No.8445637 >>8445619 That page has the methodology report. Or don't click on it and admit defeat.

Hillary Rodham Clinton !iiA80eLVpY Sun Oct 30 02:51:34 2016 No.8445638
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Uuuhhh they meant internal polls!
Uuhhhhhhh they actually corrected for that oversampling!
Uuuuhhh I mean internal sampling! To get a better look at the demographics!
All the mainsteam polls are totally legit, I mean I haven't really looked into it or anything or questioned their methodology or reviewed their data, but THEY say they're legit, why would they lie about themselves? I mean it's 2016 come on!

>>	Hillary Rodham Clinton !iiA80eLVpY Sun Oct 30 02:52:55 2016 No.8445639 >>8445637 Methodology report: We done corrected for that massive obersample you noticed, now look away you dumb fucks

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 02:53:11 2016 No.8445640 >>8445638 If they were making it up, why wouldn't they just make the number of Republicans and Democrats roughly equal?

>>	Hillary Rodham Clinton !iiA80eLVpY Sun Oct 30 02:56:24 2016 No.8445643 >>8445640 Because the data has already been published you mong Explain their methodology to us all right now, how did they correct for their astonishingly fucked sample data?

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 02:56:36 2016 No.8445644 >>8445639 >It's oversampled because there are more Democrats! >Oh you corrected for that by weighting the result so that the Republican responses represent more people than the Democrats >W...well it's still reeeeeeegged because... because Shillary!

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 03:00:38 2016 No.8445649 All these Drumph idiots... Just go back to /pol/ That's all I have to say

Anonymous Sun Oct 30 03:01:57 2016 No.8445650

>>8445643
>Because the data has already been published you mong
The data was published with the weighting, so that doesn't make sense. How could they make up an explanation of the weighting they already had in the data?

>Explain their methodology to us all right now, how did they correct for their astonishingly fucked sample data?
It's right their in the methodology report. They used a stratification technique. That means they took the percentage of sampled female Republicans who say they are going to vote for Trump, and multiply that by the percentage of female Republicans in the area to get the percentage of female Republicans who are going to vote for Trump in the area.

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 03:03:16 2016 No.8445651 >>8445644 It's half democrats and you haven't offered any proof that they corrected other than a statement from them. Show me the methodology, are you just repeating their statement?

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 03:06:22 2016 No.8445652 >>8445651 Google "data stratification" if your malformed brain can't even understand the simple explanation I already gave you.

Anonymous Sun Oct 30 03:13:52 2016 No.8445654

>>8445650
Just read their whole methodology and their "correction" is a token effort, anyone who knows anything about stats can see that. Clearly not you.

The company which conducted this poll is owned by USA today, which contributes financially to, and endorses, Hillary

Also most of the data is from one county which they carefully picked

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 03:15:13 2016 No.8445655 >>8445652 Google "fuck yourself with a cactus" you non-statistically-literate fool Explain how they corrected, go on

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 03:18:45 2016 No.8445657 >>8445652 We dun astratifisized the data huh huh huh thats how come it mostly democrats How we done it is a trade secret run along now dont forget to vote Hillary yes we literally endorse her and give her money

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 03:21:59 2016 No.8445659 Just cause it's been a while www.mostdamagingwikileaks.com #23

Anonymous Sun Oct 30 03:23:02 2016 No.8445660

>>8445654
>Just read their whole methodology and their "correction" is a token effort, anyone who knows anything about stats can see that. Clearly not you.
What a load of horseshit, you don't know stats if you can't even understand how data stratification works.

>The company which conducted this poll is owned by USA today, which contributes financially to, and endorses, Hillary
I can't find anything about USA today donating to Clinton, and it didn't endorse Hillary, it just said to not vote for Trump. Regardless, this connect the dots conspiracy making is not evidence of anything.

>Also most of the data is from one county which they carefully picked
That's because most of the registered voters are in that county. The sampling closely matches the distribution of registered voters per county, and they were weighted anyway.

You lose.

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 03:24:09 2016 No.8445662 >>8445655 >Explain how they corrected, go on I already did you illiterate monkey. Read the thread. And if you don't already know how data stratification works then you have no right to call anyone statistically illiterate, hypocrite.

Anonymous Sun Oct 30 03:27:48 2016 No.8445666

>>8445662
Can you prove that they did correct for the oversample?
>muh stratified
Prove it then, you claim to know all about how these things work, why don't you explain it mathematically, this being the science and math board and all

>hurr just look up stratification that's what they did
Kys

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 03:29:25 2016 No.8445667 >>8445655 >non-statistically-literate >not statistically-illiterate >literally illiterate

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 03:31:16 2016 No.8445669 >>8445660 > According to my own prolapsed anus, ur wrong, errything u say is le horse doody > I can't find proof of ur other claim cuz im 2 tarded so it also wrong > Most of Arizona's registered voterz live in 1 county > le checkmate

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 03:32:22 2016 No.8445670 >>8445667 >sucking penises for pleasure >literally ghey

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 03:33:57 2016 No.8445672 File: 193 KB, 800x800, 情報デスクVIRTUAL - 札幌コンテンポラリー - folder.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>8445667 Great explaination slow clap

Anonymous Sun Oct 30 03:35:50 2016 No.8445674

>>8445666
>Prove it then, you claim to know all about how these things work, why don't you explain it mathematically, this being the science and math board and all
I already explained it. I already told you that I already explained it. It's very very simple and even you should be able to understand it since it's simply multiplying two percentages together. Thank you for showing you actually are illiterate. Not even a joke, you must not be able to read since you keep asking for something I already wrote.

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 03:36:51 2016 No.8445675 >>8445669 >I can't respond so I'll greentext You lost and you know it.

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 03:38:24 2016 No.8445677 >>8445674 No you autistic dingaling not "what is a strat sample", but "please point to evidence that they did that" Stop being so tsundre anon-kun

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 03:40:22 2016 No.8445679 >>8445675 Man i thought you had me there with that one but then I thought of the ultimate rebuttal: U r the 1 who rele lost + ur gay + I fucked ur mom + delete ur account

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 03:42:17 2016 No.8445683 Proof of rigged polls www.mostdamagingwikileaks.com #23

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 03:46:34 2016 No.8445686 File: 31 KB, 564x376, 1472019825735.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>8443385 Paid shills are all over /b/

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 03:54:53 2016 No.8445689 >>8444292 I think it's good to have an intelligent discussion about this somewhere on the site

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 03:57:13 2016 No.8445691 >>8445012 Solid arguments there shill

Anonymous Sun Oct 30 04:02:27 2016 No.8445693

>>8443745
All looked into and shown to be false propaganda.

What occurred is that some people would select straight ticket voting and then to be DOUBLY sure they would also press a candidate again, which would in fact unselect him. This confused some voters. The more paranoid of which started spreading rumors.

Anonymous Sun Oct 30 04:06:33 2016 No.8445695

>>8443027
Trump and his campaign have been the ur-example of a political black swan.
Volatility-based indicators (e.g., VIX) seem to show no clear trend.
Suggestion: check for leptokurtosis (high fourth moment) and pay close attention to the last week of the news. Historical data will be a poor predictor, and it will be recent developments that have the biggest impact on the election result.

t. got a degree in statistics

Anonymous Sun Oct 30 04:11:44 2016 No.8445700

>>8444318
I don't know what you meant by this post. But you do know oversampling has no effect on the results right? It's not some conspiracy to rig the polls.

Oversampling is equivalent to measuring a football field with a yardstick, but using a micrometer instead of a yardstick to get the length of a blade of grass within that football field. The total length is the same, but certain sections are known more accurately than others. If you have a sample size of 1,000 and you want to study what people above 6'5" think, then there may be only 2 people out of that 1,000 in your sample to look at, which would give a very small subsample that wasn't statistically valid. So instead of survey 1200 people, 200 of which are over 6'5" than then you scale that 200 down to 2/1000 which is the actual percentage they represent. There results are 2/1000 regardless using either method, but by over sampling you know there results from a sampling size of 200 rather than 2.

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 04:12:34 2016 No.8445701 >>8445689 I don't know how intelligent it is when one side is retarded.

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 04:18:23 2016 No.8445703 >>8445700 To put it more eloquently. http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/10/25/oversampling-is-used-to-study-small-groups-not-bias-poll-results/

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 04:21:47 2016 No.8445705 Why not both? I voted twice because the elections are rigged.

Anonymous Sun Oct 30 04:24:44 2016 No.8445707

>>8440953
Here's a dumbed down simplified version
>get a lot of polls
>adjust them based on previous accuracy
>plot a trend line
>take said trendline into account along with a bunch of other stuff in your model, like how many people are likely to vote in which places, also demographic shit (polls aren't the only thing that matters)
>use all of this to produce a probability distribution of that shit
>do some more basic math and figure out what the probability is for each candidate winning

Sites like fivethirtyeight don't conduct polls. They just make statistical models that aggregate polling data from everywhere else. Their job is just to make accurate models so their credibility is on the line whenever they're wrong. That said they have been wrong before and they blamed it on poor decision making in said model.

I think it's interesting to note that, according to fivethrityeight, McMullin has a 17.4% chance of taking Utah. Those aren't impossible odds but I'd think twice about betting against them.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/utah/
If he does take Utah then it could throw the entire game into a Nobody Wins scenario where the House of Representatives chooses a president and the Senate chooses a vice president.

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 04:26:45 2016 No.8445708 >>8445705 lol, enjoy your five years in prison like that dumb bitch in Iowa.

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 04:30:52 2016 No.8445711 Heads up, >>>/pol/95188322

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 04:34:38 2016 No.8445713 >>8445711 >/pol/eniggers think they can convince other chantards of their conspiracy theories. I lol'd

Anonymous Sun Oct 30 04:39:48 2016 No.8445716

>>8445713
Some think they can convince some people simply by repeating a falsehood long enough and loud enough, and they're not entirely wrong. They convince themselves they're justified because "the other side is shilling right, so of course we can do a little bit too?

They end up being worse than anything they've accused anyone else of being. Every legitimate dissent from supporting Trump is always a shill to them, and further fuels their paranoia. They feel they can never show weakness because the other side is always out to get them. The side willing to be the craziest wins out while the other side mostly writes them off.

Anonymous Sun Oct 30 04:42:16 2016 No.8445718

corrupt politicians can skew the data for polls so that even if the methods used to analyse it and get results are without mistakes the results will be ultimately faked

you can barely trust scientists these days, especially in certain fields such as social "sciences" or psychiatry

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 04:42:23 2016 No.8445719 >>8445713 They're one of the lowest IQ boards on 4chan, they know not what they do.

Anonymous Sun Oct 30 04:46:58 2016 No.8445723

I'm kinda surprised /sci/ seems to completely disregard wikileaks showing signs that if not completely rigged, the campaign process is certainly corrupt af

which leads me to question why are we supposed to trust any of the election forecasts at all

please respond

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 04:49:05 2016 No.8445725 >muh IQ very seriously just kys yourself you imbecile

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 04:53:41 2016 No.8445727 The cognitive dissonance in this thread is an amazing site to behold.

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 04:56:25 2016 No.8445729 >>8445701 Intelligent in comparison to pol or b Shills get btfo way more often here

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 05:03:08 2016 No.8445733 >>8445723 Question: if Trump wins would you accept the results? Or would you still say it's corrupt/rigged?

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 05:05:47 2016 No.8445737 >>8445723 I pray you're not talking about the wikileaks' emails that refer to oversampling for the campaign's own internal polls.

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 05:05:55 2016 No.8445738 >>8445733 No doubt it will still be rigged somewhat, regardless of the outcome. I mean Sanders could've technically beat Hillary if he had a 13:1 ratio in his favor.

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 05:07:45 2016 No.8445739 >>8445738 DNC isn't the same as the national election.

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 05:08:17 2016 No.8445741 Doomsday again over at /pol/ >>>/pol/95184903

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 05:08:56 2016 No.8445742 >>8445741 This is satire, right?

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 05:16:09 2016 No.8445748 >>8445742 op seems serious I mean he's stocking up on bullets and an AR for the nuclear holocaust They really aren't that bright >>8445739 Yes, I'm pretty sure voter fraud is a regular thing to some degree every election though

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 05:35:47 2016 No.8445767 >>8445741 >>8445742 >>8445748 w-whas going on ?

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 06:18:20 2016 No.8445799 >>8441716 hur dur something happened with a 20% likelihood of happening, therefore it was actually a 0% chance hur dur i'm retarded

Anonymous Sun Oct 30 13:28:42 2016 No.8446244
File: 180 KB, 600x314, guardians-of-the-galaxy-korath-the-pursuer-02.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]

Do people really not know what an oversample is or how it works?
Do they think people working in that field simply forgot how to do their job?

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 13:39:43 2016 No.8446258 >>8445799 Statistics don't compare to muh fweelings. Check your logic privilege.

Anonymous Sun Oct 30 14:19:36 2016 No.8446290 [DELETED]

>>8445748
"Yes, I'm pretty sure voter fraud is a regular thing to some degree every election though"

In the sense that there is at least one occurrence out of hundreds of millions of voters? Sure. But there are also ppm of cockroach in practical everything you eat. Realistically, it's a complete non-issue. In my home state of Texas (a fairly populous state) there have been 104 cases of voter fraud ever recorded, out of millions of votes cast.

The recent voter ID laws also don't address the cases of voter fraud that have occurred, which is very rarely in person voter fraud. They basically just limit legal voters from voting. Ultimately they will prevent more legitimate votes from being casts than they will prevent fraudulent ones, and have a net negative impact on democracy.

Republicans stoked the fires of paranoia to try to limit voter turnout for Democrats, and they were reasonably successful at doing so.

People who believe the polls are rigged and the election is rigged are just merely innocently ignorant. A lot of them just want a reason to complain when their team loses. If they really cared or really thought it was a problem, then they would be doing diligent research to understand the issue and find real solutions to address any problems, but they aren't.

Anonymous Sun Oct 30 14:21:24 2016 No.8446293

>>8445748
"Yes, I'm pretty sure voter fraud is a regular thing to some degree every election though"

In the sense that there is at least one occurrence out of hundreds of millions of voters? Sure. But there are also ppm of cockroach in practical everything you eat. Realistically, it's a complete non-issue. In my home state of Texas (a fairly populous state) there have been 104 cases of voter fraud ever recorded, out of millions of votes cast.

The recent voter ID laws also don't address the cases of voter fraud that have occurred, which is very rarely in person voter fraud. They basically just limit legal voters from voting. Ultimately they will prevent more legitimate votes from being casts than they will prevent fraudulent ones, and have a net negative impact on democracy.

Republicans stoked the fires of paranoia to try to limit voter turnout for Democrats, and they were reasonably successful at doing so.

People who believe the polls are rigged and the election is rigged are NOT just merely innocently ignorant, they are willfully so. A lot of them just want a reason to complain when their team loses. If they really cared or really thought it was a problem, then they would be doing diligent research to understand the issue and find real solutions to address any problems, but they aren't.

Anonymous Sun Oct 30 17:16:08 2016 No.8446608

>>8446293
The primaries were proven to be rigged.
Check numbers 15 and 16
http://www.mostdamagingwikileaks.com/

There's also a heavy correlation between sanders voters and paper trails. (0.71 I believe.) This is highly suspicious considering the owner of many of these voting machines, George Soros, has a proven bias to Clinton.

Anonymous Sun Oct 30 19:00:31 2016 No.8446801 [DELETED]

>>8446608
I have, and it's a whole lot of nothing.

15. Doesn't even pertain to elections and isn't even relevant to this conversation.

16. Isn't rigging. How do you not know what rigging is? It just shows that that the DNC establishment favors Hillary. Duh. We knew this well before the emails came out. "They are not supposed to take sides yet they clearly did months before any votes were cast." Shows a great deal of ignorance about how political parties to work. Political parties aren't supposed and never have been neutral about their internal candidates. Party leadership isn't supposed to be neutral, it's supposed to promote the best interest of the party. They do this all the time in deciding who within the party gets money. This is what Super delegates are. It's built into the system. You may think the rules are shitty, but they are playing by the rules they've established. You may think having to dribble the ball in basketyball isntead of being able to carry it is dumb, but it's built into the rules and if you want to play that game then you play by those rules. It's not rigged that you have to dribble the ball, even if it favors players better at dribbling.

Rigging would be if the party leadership broke the rules they established so as to favor a candidate, and they did not. They used the rules they established to favor a candidate, which is what they have always done, and what every political party has always done.

Al gore won the popular vote against George Bush, but lost the electoral vote and consequently the presidency. It wasn't rigged against him, that's just how the rules work. The popular vote doesn't matter, the electoral vote does. You may think that is dumb, but those are the rules.

It's cheating when people break the rules. It's NOT cheating when they play by rules agreed upon but you don't like.

Anonymous Sun Oct 30 19:02:09 2016 No.8446808

>>8446608
I have, and it's a whole lot of nothing.

15. Doesn't even pertain to elections and isn't even relevant to this conversation.

16. Isn't rigging. How do you not know what rigging is? It just shows that that the DNC establishment favors Hillary. Duh. We knew this well before the emails came out. "They are not supposed to take sides yet they clearly did months before any votes were cast." Shows a great deal of ignorance about how political parties to work. Political parties aren't supposed and never have been neutral about their internal candidates. Party leadership isn't supposed to be neutral, it's supposed to promote the best interest of the party. They do this all the time in deciding who within the party gets money. This is what super delegates are. It's built into the system. You may think the rules are shitty, but they are playing by the rules they've established. You may think having to dribble the ball in basketball instead of being able to carry it is dumb, but it's built into the rules and if you want to play that game then you play by those rules. It's not rigged that you have to dribble the ball, even if it favors players better at dribbling.

Rigging would be if the party leadership broke the rules they established so as to favor a candidate, and they did not. They used the rules they established to favor a candidate, which is what they have always done, and what every political party has always done.

Al Gore won the popular vote against George Bush, but lost the electoral vote and consequently the presidency. It wasn't rigged against him, that's just how the rules work. The popular vote doesn't matter, the electoral vote does. You may think that is dumb, but those are the rules.

It's cheating when people break the rules. It's NOT cheating when they play by rules agreed upon but you don't like.

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 19:05:15 2016 No.8446820 folks over at CTR supply reliable figures to all media :^)

Anonymous Sun Oct 30 19:24:43 2016 No.8446869

>>8446808
Samefag, to further build on the point.

If you think a system is flawed, then complain about the system, but not the results of that system when legitimately carried out.

If you think super delegates aspect of how the DNC decides its nominee, great, rail against that. But don't rail against the candidate who won as a result of that system playing out correctly.

If you're allergic to peanuts, then don't bitch out the server who brings you the peanut-butter cookie you ordered. The problem is not the cookie you received, but the order you placed.
Furthermore, crying wolf like this does a great disservice to democracy. Clinton and OBama problem have down plenty of distateful thigns. But when their opposition is manufacturing worthless controversies like being a Muslim, not being an American citizen, bowing to a Saudi Prince, doubles covering for health issues, election rigging, and inconsequential emails, then all of this hides or distracts from real and serious indiscretions perpetrated by these officials the that American public should know about.

Some people were happy when a weak candidate like Trump became the Republican nominee, because it basically guaranteed the election would be handed to the Democrats. I was not. A weak opposition means the other team has to work less to win votes as well.

Part of what makes professional athletes so good is that they play with and AGAINST the best. By competing against strong opponents they hone their own skills as well.

When one of the key political parties basically runs off into crazy town and barely has any viable platforms or policies, it makes their opposition weak as well. Their opponents grow fat, lazy, and corrupt because they can afford to, because they're still the better choice out of the two.

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 22:06:59 2016 No.8447103 >>8446820 "CTR" only exists on your containment board so please keep your hunt for them there.

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 22:21:14 2016 No.8447121 >>8441646 >anti-establishment candidate half the party hates was pushed by the RNC You're a fucking idiot

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 22:27:32 2016 No.8447126 File: 389 KB, 862x654, hillary_clacqueurs.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>8447103 You're an idiot. Just Google "Correct the Record" or "1 million dollar superpac to promote Hillary supporters and attack Trump supporters"

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 22:37:09 2016 No.8447132 >>8447126 >arguing with a CTR shill about CTR you're not very smart are you?

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 22:41:02 2016 No.8447141 >>8447132 Just because they make ridiculous claims doesn't mean they're inherently shills, nigger. Kill yourself to increase the average world intelligence by a couple percent please.

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 22:44:15 2016 No.8447150 >>8447141 >inherently shills >inherently wew only if you go out with me

Anonymous Sun Oct 30 22:48:12 2016 No.8447153

>>8447132
"CTR" is just another lazy way for /pol/ to dismiss anything not in line with the hivemind.

From canada? "A fuckin leaf" durhur.
Liberal view point? "CTR shill" durhur.
Australia flag "hide australia threads. Do not respond to australia threads." durhur.

It's intellectually lazy. They're boorish and banal.

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 22:51:19 2016 No.8447158 >>8447153 yawn

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 22:54:48 2016 No.8447163 >>8447158 Solid argument >>>/pol/tard

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 22:59:50 2016 No.8447174 >>8447153 It's basically the gb2reddit, gb2gaia, gb29gag, etc. phase that all new anons use to fit in.

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 23:04:29 2016 No.8447184 >go to /pol/ >bad math threads >go to /sci/ >bad politics threads

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 23:15:28 2016 No.8447197 >>8447153 This. http://www.skepticalraptor.com/skepticalraptorblog.php/logical-fallacies/shill-gambit-logical-fallacies/ We have this problem over here every single time we have a GMO thread

Anonymous Sun Oct 30 23:15:51 2016 No.8447198

>>8447126
>$1 million
>in April
lul every post that has ever called /pol/ users retarded is a CTR shill

kys yourself retard

I doubt CTR shills would waste their time posting on one of the smallest less visible boards on fucking 4chan. If anything they probably spent all their time on fucking Twitter and large Reddit pages.

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 23:19:15 2016 No.8447203 File: 63 KB, 650x488, lurk harder boy.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >go to /pol/ >bad everything threads >go to internet >bad politics threads FIXED, it's like you've only just discovered the internet.

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 23:53:27 2016 No.8447245 >>8443328 The RNC has spent zero (0) dollars ($) on TV adds for the republican nominee, which is unprecedented.

>>	Anonymous Sun Oct 30 23:56:46 2016 No.8447249 >>8447198 That's not what I said. I just provided proof they exist. >what is reading comprehension

>>	Anonymous Mon Oct 31 00:08:56 2016 No.8447262 >>8447249 Sure, but they are inconsequential. As mentioned earlier, there are ppm of cockroaches in practically everything you eat, but it's such a small amount that it doesn't matter. CTR is the alt right's boogeyman.

Anonymous Mon Oct 31 00:17:41 2016 No.8447271

>>8447245
Yea, and they engaged in plenty of vote rigging in the primary, but Trump won in such a landslide it didn't matter.
They are a buncha traitors against Trump, but just like in the primary, it won't matter in the general either.

If anything, its a good thing, establishes his outsider credentials.

Anonymous Mon Oct 31 00:21:42 2016 No.8447277

>>8446293
>Realistically, it's a complete non-issue.
Realistically there is no way to prevent it or to investigate it, hence it goes unrecorded & unpunished. Millions of fraudulent votes will be cast in every election.

>They basically just limit legal voters from voting.
Every fucking country in the world has voter ID requirements, only a despicable democrat traitor would be against it.

>>	Anonymous Mon Oct 31 00:24:52 2016 No.8447285 >>8446869 >But when their opposition is manufacturing worthless controversies Seems like you have no clue what you are talking about, and then you call Trump a weak candidate when he's WINNING

>>	Anonymous Mon Oct 31 00:57:11 2016 No.8447328 >>8447277 >every country has id requirements not true, I'm not sure what it is like in the rest of the civilized world but back in aus there is no id checks

>>	Anonymous Mon Oct 31 01:15:46 2016 No.8447351 >>8447328 Aus still has far better regulated elections than the US No rampant systemic fraud due to its vulnerabilities

>>	Anonymous Mon Oct 31 01:22:56 2016 No.8447359 >>8447285 (not who you're replying to) by what metric exactly

>>	Anonymous Mon Oct 31 01:27:35 2016 No.8447368 >>8447359 By leading in states giving him 270 EC votes

Anonymous Mon Oct 31 01:48:41 2016 No.8447380

>>8447368
I'm not that guy but is your reasoning literally:
>Trump is winning because he's leading in the states he's leading

He's losing in most of the battleground states and even in the one's he's not he's barely holding on by a thread. Moreover the non-battleground red states are almost exclusively barren flyover states with sparsely populated small towns. No one cares who wins those because their views will never be taken seriously as the voice of America.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

>>	Anonymous Mon Oct 31 01:54:55 2016 No.8447386 >>8447351 >No rampant systemic fraud due to its vulnerabilities [citation needed]

Anonymous Mon Oct 31 01:55:07 2016 No.8447387 [DELETED]

>>8447277
>Realistically there is no way to prevent it or to investigate it, hence it goes unrecorded & unpunished. Millions of fraudulent votes will be cast in every election.
Pure speculation, and probably wrong. I can fabricate convenient talking points too ya know.
>Every fucking country in the world has voter ID requirements, only a despicable democrat traitor would be against it.
No one is against reasonable requirements, but the ones being pushed by Republicans now do next to nothing to reduce voter fraud and significantly reduce legal voting. We've done this dance before with poll taxes and literacy tests, all of which were ruled unconstitutional.

If you have 100 votes cast an election, 2 of which are fraudulent, you have at worse case a net of 96 legitimate votes (98 were real, and we'll assume the 2 fraudulent were cast contrary to those). If your plan to reduce voter fraud eliminates 1 fraudulent vote and 10 real votes, there is a net loss. You now have at best a net 90 legitimate votes (89 true votes with 1 fraudulent vote in the same direction). If you prevent more legitimate votes from being cast than you eliminate fraudulent ones, you have a less democratic system than before.
>>8447368
I'm the same person as >>8446869
If you have evidence to support this assertion go ahead and provide, but the aggregate of polls have shown Trump to be trailing Clinton most of the time. Electoral college models show him more than likely not having the minimum 270 required.

I'll direct you to:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

If were aware of these before and think they are somehow rigged or intentionally misleading, then we're probably at a stall because I don't think there's any evidence that could possibly convince you. Honestly, no one has much to lose on an anonymous message board by being wrong.

Trump is a weak candidate.

Anonymous Mon Oct 31 01:57:45 2016 No.8447392

>>8447277
>Realistically there is no way to prevent it or to investigate it, hence it goes unrecorded & unpunished. Millions of fraudulent votes will be cast in every election.
Pure speculation, and probably wrong. I can fabricate convenient talking points too ya know.
>Every fucking country in the world has voter ID requirements, only a despicable democrat traitor would be against it.
No one is against reasonable requirements, but the ones being pushed by Republicans now do next to nothing to reduce voter fraud and significantly reduce legal voting. We've done this dance before with poll taxes and literacy tests, all of which were ruled unconstitutional.

If you have 100 votes cast an election, 2 of which are fraudulent, you have at worse case a net of 96 legitimate votes (98 were real, and we'll assume the 2 fraudulent were cast contrary to those). If your plan to reduce voter fraud eliminates 1 fraudulent vote and 10 real votes, there is a net loss. You now have at best a net 89 legitimate votes (88 true votes with 1 fraudulent vote in the same direction). If you prevent more legitimate votes from being cast than you eliminate fraudulent ones, you have a less democratic system than before.
>>8447368
I'm the same person as >>8446869 (You)
If you have evidence to support this assertion go ahead and provide, but the aggregate of polls have shown Trump to be trailing Clinton most of the time. Electoral college models show him more than likely not having the minimum 270 required.

I'll direct you to:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

If were aware of these before and think they are somehow rigged or intentionally misleading, then we're probably at a stall because I don't think there's any evidence that could possibly convince you. Honestly, no one has much to lose on an anonymous message board by being wrong.

Trump is a weak candidate.

Anonymous Mon Oct 31 01:59:11 2016 No.8447395
File: 285 KB, 720x720, let me tell you why that's bullshit.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]

>>8447277
>Realistically there is no way to prevent it or to investigate
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2016/10/29/trump-supporter-charged-with-voting-twice-in-iowa/

>>	Anonymous Mon Oct 31 02:25:12 2016 No.8447416 File: 2.71 MB, 341x305, 1457095832943.gif [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>8443236 /Ctr/ pls go....just Stop its cringworthy

Anonymous Mon Oct 31 03:01:29 2016 No.8447441
File: 46 KB, 1600x1200, 4chan stats board mention.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]

>>8447416
There are two possibilities here.
>/pol/ thinks CTR is actively arguing against them in every thread they make about the election.
>/pol/ knows that it's not CTR arguing against them but they're willing to pretend that's the case in order to insulate them from criticism.

Either way we can conclude that their containment board is truly pure concentrated cancer.

>>	Anonymous Mon Oct 31 03:23:30 2016 No.8447461 >>8447441 >There are two possibilities here. More likely it's a blend. Real opinions are presented in the veil of absurdity and hyperbole to allow the individual to back out of defending their position at any time.

>>	Anonymous Mon Oct 31 04:40:59 2016 No.8447503 What the fuck is CTR, whatever happened to JIDF ??

>>	Anonymous Mon Oct 31 04:54:50 2016 No.8447510 >>8447503 Didn't you know? /pol/ now likes jews.

>>	Anonymous Mon Oct 31 05:13:36 2016 No.8447520 >>8447461 So there was a time when we pretended to be insane for satire/troll reasons and then somehow people that actually believed this stuff started appearing. Or maybe they were there all along. It's all a blur to me now.

>>	Anonymous Mon Oct 31 05:17:06 2016 No.8447522 >>8447510 *Zionist Jews Jews not returning to their homeland are still bad.

>>	Anonymous Mon Oct 31 05:17:37 2016 No.8447525 File: 3 KB, 209x242, who.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>8447522

>>	Anonymous Mon Oct 31 05:48:12 2016 No.8447543 >>8447503 Crash Team Racing

Anonymous Mon Oct 31 08:47:13 2016 No.8447689 [DELETED]

http://www.cracked.com/blog/6-reasons-trumps-rise-that-no-one-talks-about/
Yes, yes, cracked.com article, but still probably not far off the mark.

Posters like those who frequent /pol/ are real people with real problems, and those problems deserved to be addressed. Some may think "Man, after they spend so much time complaining and I finally listening, they have pretty much nothing to say other than 'cuck, ctr, shill'." In many ways they're like a beat down minority they spend time ranting about. When live in a beat down local environment like a 1 company town that no longer has that company, it saps all your intellectual energy.

Unfortunately regressing backwards through "Make America Great Again" won't work. The U.S. experience a post WW2 boom mostly because all the other wealthy countries blew up their infrastructure and the U.S. was primed to take advantage of that. That's what lead to people with only a high school education being able to make a strong middle income wage. No amount of keeping immigrants and Muslims out or blocking trade deals is going to change that.

The U.S. isn't so much in decline as it is losing its head start. It's going to take hard work and innovative solutions to maintain that level of prosperity.

Anonymous Mon Oct 31 08:49:54 2016 No.8447693

http://www.cracked.com/blog/6-reasons-trumps-rise-that-no-one-talks-about/
Yes, yes, cracked.com article, but still probably not far off the mark.

Posters like those who frequent /pol/ are real people with real problems, and those problems deserved to be addressed. Some may think "Man, after they spent so much time complaining and I finally started listening, they have pretty much nothing to say other than 'cuck, ctr, shill'." In many ways they're like a beat down minority they spend so much time ranting about. When you live in a one company town that no longer has that company, it saps all your intellectual energy. It's hard.

Unfortunately regressing backwards through "Make America Great Again" won't work. The U.S. experience a post WW2 boom mostly because all the other wealthy countries blew up their infrastructure and the U.S. was primed to take advantage of that. That's what lead to people with only a high school education being able to make a strong middle income wage. No amount of keeping immigrants and Muslims out or blocking trade deals is going to change that.

The U.S. isn't so much in decline as it is losing its head start. It's going to take hard work and innovative solutions to maintain that level of prosperity.

Anonymous Mon Oct 31 10:39:26 2016 No.8447800

>>8447392
>all of which were ruled unconstitutional.
No, literacy tests were 100% constitutional, but made illegal with the marxist unconstitutional civil rights act.

Same shit, democrats rely on the vote of illiterates, felons, and all the other scum of the earth. The non-white vote goes in a block for the democrats, so the absolute most evil thing in the minds of democrats is white self-determination.

>you have a less democratic system than before.
Who cares? This is not at all the argument used in courts to defeat voter ID laws.

>now do next to nothing to reduce voter fraud
Voter ID is a start, without it, you have nothing. and YES we do know that large numbers of deceased people vote, we do know Dems organize fraudulent voting of people in old folks homes/mentally ill.

>significantly reduce legal voting
Only in the minds of delusional lying liberals. In reality its the libs paying blacks/mexicans/illegals to vote, bussing the scum of the earth in. The democrats will always fight anything that helps enforce the law or reduce fraud.

They would also find it basically impossible to produce someone that WANTS to vote, and yet doesn't have ID, doesn't have cars/income/home address/etc that would be prevented.

>If were aware of these before and think they are somehow rigged or intentionally misleading,
Of course they are rigged and wrong, we can see early voting numbers for ourselves and Trump is on track to do way better than romney, while Hillary is doing worse than obama, so Trump sure as shit isn't losing.

>>	Anonymous Mon Oct 31 10:40:33 2016 No.8447801 >>8447380 Any forecast that relies on an average of bogus polls, is a bogus forecast. These people ADMIT their biases, and then you want to believe their polling? The only way the dems hope to win this election is through mass voter fraud.

Anonymous Mon Oct 31 10:48:08 2016 No.8447811

>>8447693
Declining average IQ from immigration is a disaster
A lack of any homogenity will always ultimately destroy a country, another thing caused by immigration.

It's not a surprise that people think the country was better when it was white. IT ACTUALLY WAS A LOT BETTER.

Anonymous Mon Oct 31 13:43:14 2016 No.8447993

>>8445320
Do you really think someone needs to be paid to report on Donald Trump being a sexual predator and potential child rapist? Stop consuming media that fits your preconceived notions and you might actually formulate opinions that will drive humanity forward instead of holding it back.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Epstein#Civil_lawsuits
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_sexual_misconduct_allegations

Anonymous Mon Oct 31 19:39:36 2016 No.8448446 [DELETED]

>>8447800
>No, literacy tests were 100% constitutional, but made illegal with the marxist unconstitutional civil rights act.
Don't mind me and everyone else privileging SCotUS rulings above you personal opinions.

And if you had anything at stake in this conversation, that might matter to you.

Anonymous Mon Oct 31 19:41:03 2016 No.8448447

>>8447800
>No, literacy tests were 100% constitutional, but made illegal with the marxist unconstitutional civil rights act.
Don't mind me and everyone else privileging SCotUS rulings above your personal opinions.

If you had anything at stake in this conversation, that might matter to you.

>>	Anonymous Mon Oct 31 19:53:49 2016 No.8448466 >>8447993 >allegations They have no proof. Innocent until proven guilty

Anonymous Mon Oct 31 20:01:48 2016 No.8448475
File: 61 KB, 500x500, 1477612668151.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]

>>8447811

>it's the le IQ meme

Nigga IQ has nothing to do with it, the U.S. fucked themselves royally by giving China a chance to rise again.

China is literally the only reason why the U.S. is in "decline". Helping China gave India and Russia a ridiculously stupid powerful non western ally to work with. Without China everyone except Japan would be a non threat.

Also as far as academics and intelligence is concerned European countries were always ahead of America even when America was majority white. But since back then it was just western countries dominanting academia this was never seen as a problem.

>>	Anonymous Mon Oct 31 20:22:30 2016 No.8448499 >>8448466 When did we start talking about Clinton? :)

Anonymous Tue Nov 1 02:14:55 2016 No.8448866

>>8448499
There is proof she broke the law. She got off last time because "she unintentionally" broke the law. Recent WikiLeaks has proof of her knowing it was illegal, her deleting (hiding/destroying) evidence, among numerous other immoral and/or suggestive (in that suggests she broke the law or was immoral) actions.

Anonymous Tue Nov 1 11:27:25 2016 No.8449279

>>8441723

I still don't understand how any US citizen can defend the electoral college as democratic.
To me it is fundamentally antidemocratic that there can be results where the number of vote for candidate 1 outweigh those for candidate 2 but candidate 2 wins due to the electoral college system.

I get where it comes from historically, but it certainly does not give power to the people. In modern times, the electoral college is a fucking hindrance to a real democracy and should be abolished.

And please don't put me in one corner of the political spectrum for saying what I said. I am not even American, so I cannot even vote in this election, but I find it amusing that US Americans go out into the world to "teach the lower cultures democracy", despite not living in a real one themselves.

Anonymous Tue Nov 1 17:43:48 2016 No.8449745

>>8449279
It forces Presidential candidates to pander to a variety of regions throughout the nation rather than the few cities that make up the majority of the population.

For example, in my country New Zealand all parties pander to one city, Auckland, which makes up 40% of population of the country.
The rest of New Zealand is neglected apart from the capitol city Wellington where the politicians live.
That's why our second largest city Christchurch got hit by an earthquake 5 years, the city right now is still in a mess and hasn't been repaired.
This is because the government don't give a shit about Christchurch as they only care about Auckland to win votes as it's a much much larger city.
the government leave the country outside the largest city Auckland and the capitol Wellington in an absolute shambles because they don't need our votes to win.

If we had electoral college like USA, the government would be forced to fix cities devastated by earthquakes and develop backwards shitholes that litter the nation in order to win regions so they can get in.

In conclusion: popular vote is a scourge that ruins a nation outside the main population centre.
Would you like an America where the government only looked after New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, and D.C.?
Would you like an America where if a natural disaster hit Phoenix, the government would only begin to extremely slowly fix the damage 5 years after the disaster happened?
Would you like many small cities turning into Detroits from government cutting all funds for them, taking the money to spend on the few largest cities?
Of course not.
Keep electoral college, it's the only thing saving the majority of your nation from being neglected.

>>	Anonymous Tue Nov 1 21:00:32 2016 No.8450133 >>8449745 >>8449279 It also makes voter fraud much harder to have a great impact

>>	Anonymous Tue Nov 1 21:40:03 2016 No.8450201 >>8445633 >"go back to pole" as they are a "trumpet" i'm not familiar with trumpets is that a band pun

>>	Anonymous Tue Nov 1 21:43:11 2016 No.8450207 >>8448866 The same can be said of Trump.

>>	Anonymous Tue Nov 1 21:57:48 2016 No.8450228 >>8450207 >breaking the law is just as bad as calling a woman fat

Anonymous Tue Nov 1 22:01:58 2016 No.8450236

>>8449279
>>8449745
>>8450133
>It also makes voter fraud much harder to have a great impact
I anything, it potentially magnifies its effect.
>It forces Presidential candidates to pander to a variety of regions throughout the nation rather than the few cities that make up the majority of the population.
Not really either.

The electoral college arose for certain historical logistical reasons (and also the fight between state versus proportional representation), and to a large extent it exists continuously because of being previously in place.

For modern purposes it serves as more of a pragmatic solution for still logistical problems. The Bush v Gore election was quite close, and which forced a recount of Florida, but ONLY of Florida. Were the presidency purely by popular vote that would have been a national recount that would have drug on much longer and been far more expensive.

Subsectionsection the popular vote in to mini all or nothing elections produces wider swings within those elections. So The sum of Texas and California voters can be quite close (say 50.1% in favor of one candidate), which might be hotly contested, but each individual state could have an opposite wide swing, which is not worth contesting. You see this play out nationally because many winning candidates win a larger proportion of electoral votes than they do popular votes.

This magnification also helps avoid runoffs. The president isn't decided by winning a plurality, but by winning a majority (maybe a plurality SHOULD be sufficient, but that's not the way the rules work atm). Third party candidates could quite often prevent a first election via popular vote from being conclusive, which means ANOTHER election with the top candidates.

>>	Anonymous Tue Nov 1 22:03:49 2016 No.8450242 >>8450228 Sexually assaulting/raping women and children is also breaking the law. All things Trump has not been convicted of (though he has settled) just like Clinton. You are failing to grasp the symmetry of your complaint.

>>	Anonymous Tue Nov 1 22:06:43 2016 No.8450250 >>8450242 I also forgot to point out the stupidity of saying Clinton broke the law and agreeing she was found not guilty. A person found innocent has by definition not broken the law. To say Clinton broke the law is simple lying.

Anonymous Tue Nov 1 22:07:34 2016 No.8450252

>>8449745
>Would you like an America where the government only looked after New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, and D.C.?

If you add in Miami, Dallas, and Houston, you've literally just described the US political system. Most localities in the US have had little say in state or national gov't since urbanization went viral in the 1980s. Those cities essentially overwhelm the rest of the population in their respective states. Collectively, those cities control about 1/3 of the EV in the US.

>>	Anonymous Tue Nov 1 22:15:53 2016 No.8450265 How and why is this thread allowed on here? This isn't /pol/, last time I checked. Obligatory >>>/pol/

>>	Anonymous Tue Nov 1 23:09:23 2016 No.8450363 >>8450265 Probably because as off topic as this thread is, for people who want an intelligent political discussion this is better than anything that has been on /pol/ in months (though it's still going downhill a bit).

Anonymous Wed Nov 2 01:11:54 2016 No.8450531

>>8449745

This is true for nearly all western nation and is bullshit. Big city people are very liberal usually and are appalled when the media report politicians ignoring rural areas.
In many countries, cities also vote completely differently on a city level than on a state/federal level.

>>8450133
Voter fraud? The voter ID thing that is being talked about all the time that has proven to have happened in like less than ten cases ever?
Or some other thing that I may not be aware of?

>>8450236
This guy basically gets it. The electoral college basically makes it impossible for third parties to even get represented realistically.

>>	Anonymous Wed Nov 2 02:11:59 2016 No.8450612 >>8450207 >>8450242 No. There's no proof he did that. Unlike there's proof Clinton broke the law.

>>	Anonymous Wed Nov 2 02:19:56 2016 No.8450619 >>8450612 May as well give it up. Federal fucking B.I. is even trying to tell them she's too shady for pres. If they dint heard that, they deaf.

Anonymous Wed Nov 2 02:22:39 2016 No.8450624

>>8450612
Fortunately your opinion on what constitutes proof is completely irrelevant. The court hasn't found either of them guilty.

Wanting it really really bad to not be true doesn't make Clinton guilty, but espousing that she is does make you a liar.

Anonymous Wed Nov 2 02:29:46 2016 No.8450633

>>8450624
You're obviously delusional and only take information from utterly biased sources.
http://www.mostdamagingwikileaks.com/
A number of immoral/illegal things have been confessed in here. If you've never even read WikiLeaks you shouldn't be voting.
>inb4 Russian conspiracy
No proof they did it; it was most likely a whistleblower.
The content has been vouched for and confirmed by Clinton's staff that was given immunity and the FBI.

WikiLeaks also has said the worst of it has yet to come.

>>8450619
This. Seriously, >>8450624 , watch an unbiased news source if reading is too complicated for you.

Anonymous Wed Nov 2 02:34:12 2016 No.8450639

It's pretty funny how Americans react to their first populist presidential candidate. We have guys like Trump pop up every few years in every country in Europe and we're pretty good by now at ignoring them. Americans who have been sheltered by the two party system by now completely buy into Trump's bullshit on the other hand. Clinton isn't particularly appealing to me either, but anyone who seriously thinks Trump makes a better president than Clinton is fucking insane. She's supposedly corrupt, so fucking what? It's so typically American to think that "m-muh taxes and hard earned money!" is more important than dragging the whole fucking world into chaos. And don't give me that "Congress makes sure that he can't fuck things up"-shit. He's simply an unskilled politician and unskilled diplomat. He WILL fuck things up, simply because he's not good enough. He's also naive as fuck and will fall for literally every political trick that exists before he slowly learns to make good decisions. Just look at how ridiculous his whole campaign turned out. He can't even watch what he does or says in his own country.

>>	Anonymous Wed Nov 2 02:35:33 2016 No.8450640 >>8450633 >every news source is biased except for /pol/ and /r/le_donald fuck off

>>	Anonymous Wed Nov 2 02:59:25 2016 No.8450665 >>8450633 You're a moron. You wanting someone to be a criminal really really badly does not make them a criminal. The court does. You can't just wish things into existence. Not outside the alt-right bubble anyway.

>>	Anonymous Wed Nov 2 03:04:45 2016 No.8450676 >>8440953 as far as i know, he uses data from polls and demographic data to give a weighted polls-plus data. Then he runs a simulation 10 000 times to get the percentages

>>	Anonymous Wed Nov 2 03:13:06 2016 No.8450686 >>8447503 CTR "Control the Record" is a hillary super pac that was confirmed to have hired "nerd virgins' to shill on 4chan for hillary

>>	Anonymous Wed Nov 2 03:15:55 2016 No.8450688 File: 21 KB, 659x333, 1475960166080.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>8450686 This is you.

>>	Anonymous Wed Nov 2 03:17:52 2016 No.8450692 >>8450688 too bad FBI and the rest of the world disagrees with you shilltard :(

>>	Anonymous Wed Nov 2 03:22:20 2016 No.8450696 >>8450665 >b-b-but all my accusations about trump must be true D': thanks for the laugh brainlet

>>	Anonymous Wed Nov 2 03:26:02 2016 No.8450702 >>8450692 No they don't, respect the fucking dubs and back to /pol/ you go

>>	Anonymous Wed Nov 2 03:26:21 2016 No.8450703 >>8450696 You lying about what other people said doesn't make it true either.

>>	Anonymous Wed Nov 2 03:26:22 2016 No.8450704 File: 53 KB, 256x256, thinking-face.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>8450692 >the rest of the world disagrees with you https://global.handelsblatt.com/politics/the-world-wants-hillary-476615 What did he mean by this?

Anonymous Wed Nov 2 03:30:57 2016 No.8450707

>>8450702
>>8450703
Ssshhh no tears now. go back to your BLM rally or tolerate ISIS propaganda or whatever cancerous hypocritical garbage shillary is trying to push this week.

Hopefully Trump will make crime illegal again so the world can get rid of you disgusting filth once and for all.

Anonymous Wed Nov 2 04:18:11 2016 No.8450758

>>8450707
You lie because you having nothing at stake here. You know that you can walk away from this at any moment and it won't follow you. You can be wrong and no one will call you out for it beyond the point you choose to let them. And then you will forget it ever occurred. You didn't saying anything stupid. Heck you NEVER said anything stupid as far as you can recall.

Each conversation you have here will be the same. You'll say inane bullshit and then the other person will either give up because you're not worth putting up with or they'll spend enough energy to back you into a corner until you decide to stop responding and forget anything either of you said.

You never stood to lose.

You will think you've struck a nerve here, but I'm not addressing you. I'm addressing all of you. Bullshit and walk away, repeated over and over by numerous faceless individuals. The second you make one wrong move you hit the restart button, and the closest you come to victory is forcing your opponent to do the same. The game never actually completes. You will win nothing because you wagered nothing.

Anonymous Wed Nov 2 04:29:13 2016 No.8450765
File: 55 KB, 850x400, quote-the-further-a-society-drifts-from-truth-the-more-it-will-hate-those-who-speak-it-george-orwell-49-88-64.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]

>>8450633
>http://www.mostdamagingwikileaks.com/
thanks for posting this. very informative.

Anonymous Wed Nov 2 04:31:32 2016 No.8450767

>>8450640
Not what I said. Read the actual source of the claims. WikiLeaks, FBI statements, etc.
>>8450665
She has proof against her is all I'm saying.
>>8450676
WRONG
>>8450686
4chan among other social media, yes embrace it that's what they called 4chan
>>8450688
Not an argument
>>8450703
Just read the sources. The FBI and WikiLeaks directly contradict what Clinton said about not sending classified info, etc.
>>8450765
You're welcome. Rumor has it they're saving the worst for last (not all emails have been released)

>>	Anonymous Wed Nov 2 04:33:29 2016 No.8450769 >>8450676 >>8450767 >WRONG I assumed you were referring to trump and you might not have been. My bad.

>>	Anonymous Wed Nov 2 04:46:43 2016 No.8450780 >>8440953 It's easy. The probability of Trump winning is 100%

Anonymous Wed Nov 2 11:47:59 2016 No.8451217

>>8440953
Agent-based models (ABMs) is one method used for election prediction. In essence the election is predicted by simulating the lives of millions of American citizens. Some fraction if thet citizens then goes to the simulated polling booth and votes. The election results is measured. The probability distribution of election result is estimated from such measurements.

>>	Anonymous Wed Nov 2 12:14:58 2016 No.8451248 >>8450242 bantering in a bus is not against the law, retard

>>	Anonymous Wed Nov 2 18:58:08 2016 No.8451817 >>8451248 Neither is having an email server, but we can both misrepresent each other's claims.

>>	Anonymous Wed Nov 2 19:01:21 2016 No.8451822 I haven't read this thread yet, but I bet it's about statistics.

>>	Anonymous Wed Nov 2 19:16:57 2016 No.8451845 >>8450767 >She has proof against her is all I'm saying. Not according to the court, which is the only matters. Your or my opinion on her or Trump's innocence or guilt is irrelevant.

>>	Anonymous Wed Nov 2 19:18:20 2016 No.8451846 >>8450767 >She has proof against her is all I'm saying. Not according to the court, which is the only entity that matters. Your or my opinion on her or Trump's innocence or guilt is irrelevant.

>>	Anonymous Wed Nov 2 21:26:38 2016 No.8452087 >>8451817 Possession and distribution of classified information on said server is illegal moron >>8451846 Her case was reopened because of more evidence that proved last time wasn't simply because she was too dumb to understand what she was doing.

Anonymous Wed Nov 2 21:36:22 2016 No.8452099

>>8452087
And raping women and children is also illegal moron, but neither was convicted of either despite the evidence.
>>8452087
And if she is found guilty, then you can say she committed a crime, but until then you're a liar. See how simple that is? Why do you hate justice so damn much?

>>	Anonymous Thu Nov 3 00:53:24 2016 No.8452463 >>8452099 There is no evidence Trump raped anyone. There is evidence Hillary committed crimes. There's a liar here, and it's not me. I provided a source that lists other sources with its claims. What have you provided? Rumors?

Anonymous Thu Nov 3 01:17:34 2016 No.8452481

>>8452463
>There is no evidence Trump raped anyone. There is evidence Hillary committed crimes.
There is no difference according to the court. Your personal opinion is irrelevant. Citing a buddy's personal opinion is also irrelevant. Really really wanting something to be so doesn't make it so. No matter how many pwetty pleases or cherry on tops you throw at it.

At this time, both are innocent of the allegations. Stating otherwise is lying. You are a liar. You can choose to stop being a liar at any time.

>>	Anonymous Thu Nov 3 02:47:36 2016 No.8452553 >>8441716 Reminder that this fag said this morning that it was more likely for The Donald to become president than for the Cubbies to win the Worlds Eries and look who just got cucked by Joe Maddon. I don't like Trump but this guy's a retard.

>>	Anonymous Thu Nov 3 08:24:32 2016 No.8452770 >>8452481 Unfortunately for you, the evidence was real enough to reopen her case. No amount of name-calling will change that.

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