Most mathematically likely solution to Fermi Paradox?

[Anonymous No.9878105]

Which answer provides the most logical conclusion in numerical terms (ex: distance and time) and relies as little as possible on speculation of what alien life might do (ex: transcending biological form to live or hibernate in some type of simulated realm)

[Anonymous No.9878122]

>>9878105
We are a relatively advanced species, yet we have barely shown the universe that we exist. Even if there are much more advanced species than us, they could simply be much further away. This is all assuming no one on the planet has actually had contact with aliens.

[Anonymous No.9878155]

>>9878105
It only takes ~50 years proper time accelerating and decelerating at 1g to reach the edge of the visible universe, ignoring drag. Where is all the intelligent life? They either rarely exist or interstellar space travel is impractical.

[Anonymous No.9878179]

Aliens exist and have visited Earth. We have been conditioned not to notice, socially.

>Hey, anon believes in UFOs, what a loser
>Anon doesn't believe the official version of JFK
>Anon doesn't believe Iraq has WMDs

Stuff like Fermi's paradox only is an issue if you make incorrect assumptions, like assuming the mountains of evidence for extraterrestrial activity is all incorrect.

[Anonymous No.9878194]

>>9878105
Brother, here is the solution gathered from intel. We are in a transitionary period where most civilizations either die off or few continue to very high technology. Meaning there is an extremely low number of civilizations with our communication types and they are very DISTANT form one another which given the speed, loss and interference with which our communications propagate, makes it virtually IMPOSSIBLE for any such civilizations to get in touch.
No dumb idiot would communicate across stars at light speed. This is not communication, this is diary exchange. Aliens do communicate all the time but we have not gotten word of it because aliens communicate instantly using waves that we only used accidentally at the beginning of the 20th century and have begun clandestinely researching since the late 1940s. That is not to say aliens travel instantly. We are talking about superluminal information exchange.

See this:
http://d3adcc0j1hezoq.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Ultra-Top-Secret-MITD.pdf

[Anonymous No.9878203]

>>9878179
6/10 bait

[Anonymous No.9878212]

>>9878105
What you are seeing in the gif is probably a disc shaped craft. The smaller planetary travel ones are some about 30m in diameter. The much larger interstellar ones used for main travel are much much larger. They use electrogravitic propulsion by riding a wave generated as a third wave by some form of interference between electromagnetic and gravitational waves. The craft has two fields around it, one being electromagnetic, hence what you see happening in the gif.

[Anonymous No.9878218]

>>9878155
this is incredibly wrong

[My name is nirthgurd IV No.9878222]

>>9878218
I concur. That person is clearly retarded.

[Anonymous No.9878235]

Tfw microbrainlets believe that a species millions of years more advanced than us would visit us in these cute saucers and make no attempt to hide themselves

[Anonymous No.9878545]

>>9878122
>>>9878105 (OP)
>We are a relatively advanced species, yet we have barely shown the universe that we exist.
Relative to whom? The other animals on Earth? Then why are you wondering about our influence on the universe?

[Anonymous No.9878632]

>>9878105
>Most mathematically likely solution to Fermi Paradox?
The absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

[Anonymous No.9878691]

>>9878545
>Relative to whom? The other animals on Earth?
Yes. If we were concerned with finding alien life, there would be varying degrees of interest depending on how advanced they would be. If they were more like chimpanzees than humans, we would be a little disappointed. We might not even interfere with them at all. But the civilizations that resembled ours or surpasses ours would be more interesting. But if every civilization has this mindset of only wanting to find “advanced” species, then our work doesn’t lie in being found, but in finding them.

[Anonymous No.9878838]

>>9878105
that we and other civilisations of sufficient technological advancement, create our own lifelike 100% real quantum simulations of any society, world, universe, life we want to live, we become gods.

no one invents faster than light travel, we nor others ever leave their systems/galaxies in their subjective objective reality. They can however in their simulations of the universe they go onto create, because they can do whatever in that.


>be civilization
>never leave galaxy
>live for eternity in quantum virtual reality as gods

[Anonymous No.9878857]

>>9878105
There is no paradox, the universe is just absolutely massive and we even struggle to see things within our solar system, let alone others.
The only paradox here is that anyone who thinks there is a paradox is a retard.

[Anonymous No.9878861]

>>9878155
Wat.
First of all, even at near the speed of light (99.99%) it would take you billions of years to reach the "edge".
Not forgetting, the fact that none of our materials would survive the trip (as would nothing coated in said materials).

[Anonymous No.9878891]

>>9878105

>Most mathematically likely solution to Fermi Paradox?

Intelligent life is rare and we are the first in our local group of galaxies.

>>9878857

>There is no paradox, the universe is just absolutely massive

The universe is older than it is large. If they exist, they had more than enough time to spread everywhere. Fermi paradox is a paradox for a reason.

[Anonymous No.9878904]

>>9878891
>The universe is older than it is large. If they exist, they had more than enough time to spread everywhere. Fermi paradox is a paradox for a reason.
No they wouldn't, you idiot.

[Miniature Spacecraft No.9878909]

>>9878105
WE ARE THE SOLUTION TO THIS "PARADOX"

We are the living proof that Intelligent Life can happen in this universe and can explore it.

[Miniature Spacecraft No.9878913]

>>9878909
I forgot to add! I'm so glad God created us.

[Anonymous No.9878929]

>>9878861

Billions of years to a "stationary" observer, sure. But by subjective time on the ship it wouldn't be nearly as long.

[Anonymous No.9878935]

>>9878929
>He doesn't understand relativity.

[Anonymous No.9879182]

Single cell life formed on the Earth almost as soon as it cooled down enough. But the jump to multicellular life forms took billions of years. That jump might be an absurdly rare occurrence in the universe, and no other life in our galaxy has managed it yet.

[Anonymous No.9879191]

>>9878105
The absence of evidence is evidence of absence.

[Anonymous No.9879198]

>>9878155
Expansion of the universe makes this impossible.

[Anonymous No.9879212]

Continued colonization of space is unecessary after certain technological level is achieved.
Alien civilizations are advanced by hundreds if milions of years and can’t reasonably conmunicate with us.

[Anonymous No.9879215]

>>9878179
>>9878194
>>9878212
You have to go back >>>/x/

>>9878632
What absence of evidence?

>>9878838
>if I add quantum to everything it sounds like I know what I'm talking about.

>>9878935
You're both idiots. The proper time of a ship traveling near lightspeed would be billions of time less than an observer on Earth. But this doesn't help because you have to be moving faster than light to reach the visible border since it's expanding away from us.

[Anonymous No.9879216]

>>9879182
I reckon it'd have taken at least 6 to 7 billion years for the universe to have gotten to a point at which it could have sustained complex life.

[Anonymous No.9879384]

>>9879215
>if I add quantum to everything it sounds like I know what im talking about

you're an incel and a brainlet. a quantum simulation is one that can simulate quantum events you fucking retard, how hard is that to understand?

>im going to call out everyone who says the word quantum and imply they're using it wrong to make myself look edgy and smart

[Anonymous No.9879432]

>>9878105
There are zero other places where there is life, therefore our probability of detecting other life is zero.

No idea if that is true, but the math works, and it does not rely on the behavior of aliens to explain anything, so it fits your requirements.

[Anonymous No.9879436]

>>9879191
So you think there might well be an elephant in your refrigerator?

[Anonymous No.9879445]

>>9879432
No it doesn't, that's just god of the gaps.

[Anonymous No.9879484]

>>9878105
On the off chanceanybody here is interested in what is actually going on in OP's gif, maybe read:

https://www.metabunk.org/explained-giant-black-sphere-hovering-near-the-sun-coronal-prominence-cavity.t469/

[Anonymous No.9879489]

>>9879445
>god of the gaps

Not sure how that apples to what I posted

Also, note:
>No idea if that is true...

I was not asserting that I know whether there is life in the Unverse, I was providing the simplest mathematically valid answer to OP's question that I can think of.

IF there is zero life elsewhere, the paradox is resolved.

[Anonymous No.9879608]

>>9879182
Plus the jump from single cell to multicellular wasn't the only major jump needed to lead to intelligent life.
For all we know we're the first truly intelligent life.

[Anonymous No.9879647]

>>9879484
Thanks

[Anonymous No.9879804]

>>9879384
Look here is me quantum simulating you:

.

[Anonymous No.9879814]

>>9879436
There is an absence of evidence that an elephant is in my refrigerator, which is evidence that there is no elephant in my refrigerator.

[Anonymous No.9880039]

>>9879814
Apologies, I misread you post at >>9879191

[Anonymous No.9880042]

>>9878105
>mathematically
>in numerical terms
kys

Mathematically, I can only recommend everyone to look at the maximum likelihood principle. Let's define the parameter pi, which is the percentage of how many earth like planets in the habitable zone have intelligent life on them (the problem is actually more complex because bodies like some Saturn and Jupiter moons, big Asteroids, ... could also harbor life and there is also a distinction between having intelligent life on it and having an advances civilization with Dyson spheres and shit, but we keep the problem simple for now, which leads to very conservative results). Let's assume we know for sure that Venus has no intelligent life, earth does, Mars doesn't. That's the only data we have (we know exoplanets but we won't have a chance to know if human like creatures would be on them).

The question is now, which parameter pi makes the observation 0, 1, 0 ("no life", "life", "no life") most likely? It is unlikely to observe 0,1,0 when pi is assumed to be 0.000000007 (the probability of a lottery jackpot). It is also unlikely to observe 0,1,0 when pi is assumed to be 0.99999. So pi should be somewhere between that. It depends on which distribution we assume, if we assume symmetric distributions like the normal distribution or uniform distribution, it is most likely to observe 0,1,0 when pi (µ in normal dist) is 1/3.

Most people think they are reputable and scientific guys when they assume that we are like a lottery jackpot, that pi is 0.000000007 or even more. But this is nots, the maximum likelihood principle would lead us to assume that we are nothing extremely special. It's likely that there is other intelligent life in our galaxy, it either never forms civilizations that would be easily visible or they are clever enough to actively remain invisible so they have less risk to be colonized by other civilizations.

[Anonymous No.9880063]

Everyone who's convinced there is no paradox and the answer is obvious cites an answer that was already thoroughly addressed in the original formulation of the Fermi Paradox.
I have no idea why people are so quick to believe the physicists who've looked into this are so retarded that they never considered explanations like "the universe is very large," "we haven't looked hard enough," or "not enough time has gone by yet."
Those explanations already having been looked at and being found improbable IS the Fermi Paradox.
At least read up on it before trying to have an opinion.

[Anonymous No.9880149]

>>9880042
This falls apart when you consider that observing (0,1,0) is conditional on not all of those numbers being 0

[Anonymous No.9880551]

>>9878105
>Most mathematically likely solution to Fermi Paradox?

Technologically advanced civilizations exist all around us, don't use radio to communicate, and are waiting until the human race "Grows Up" to make themselves known.

humanity will never grow up.

[Anonymous No.9880626]

How do I become a Matrioshka brain lads???

[Anonymous No.9880711]

>>9880149
I've fucked up with the distributions in hindsight, as only discrete distributions makes sense (k number of planets with intelligent life out of n observations), so I should have named binomial instead of normal. Anyways, on what are the observations conditional in your opinion?

[Anonymous No.9880841]

>>9878691
>there would be varying degrees of interest
Implying it wouldn't be the most significant event in human history. The simple fact that life, in any form whatsoever could be exist elsewhere in the universe would change everything

[Anonymous No.9880872]

Aliens have figured out that light is a very inefficient way of transmitting information (high absorption losses). They've been emitting signals in neutrinos and exotic particles, which do not have these problems.

We've started emitting radio signals for less than a 100 years and we already have the technology to create neutrino signals. It is understandable that we haven't discovered aliens if they have likewise spent a very short period of time emitting in light.

When we discover neutrino point sources, we'll finally be able to read the alien messages.

[Anonymous No.9880934]

>>9880841
Not a single normie would care if they found some single celled organism on Mars or on one of jupiters moons.

[Anonymous No.9880941]

>>9880934
Some normies would camp out with banners: "Martians welcome".

[Miniature Spacecraft No.9880945]

[Anonymous No.9880958]

>>9878105
Maybe the next step in evolution of intelligent species is not what we currently think it is. We have this idea that our technology just gets better and better and we will be able to travel wast distances across space. But what if the next step in evolution is transcending our physical bodies and reaching planes of existence we can't now even imagine. Somehing along the lines of the ancients in stargate or what not.

In evolution of life on earth at some point we came out of water and never came back to it. What if physical universe is just another step in evolution that is meant to be left behind once we are able to overcome it.

[Anonymous No.9881014]

>>9878105
Distance.
Even cosmologists can't comprehend how ginormous our galaxy is.

[Anonymous No.9881038]

>>9881014
Uhm, first of all cosmologists don't deal with things happening inside the galaxy. We have a pretty clear idea of how big the galaxy is, it's about 100k ly. For objects that are ultra-distant, like tens of billions of light years away, it's tricky because of the cosmological ladder, but we have a decent idea there as well. Everything is still really fucking far away though.

[Anonymous No.9881184]

There are incredibly many variables when it comes to supporting life in a universe. Changing some of the values for the forces we know even by a miniscule amount would result in a completely different universe, incapable of supporting life as we know it.

I'd say that our old-ass universe has some other weird extra-terrestial beings somewhere out there, as there are billions of stars and planets, which gives room for another improbability like human life to manifest

[Anonymous No.9881190]

>>9881184
You know nothing about universe creation and can have no testsble hypotheses -> garbage

[Anonymous No.9881194]

>>9881184
>as we know it
Maybe it's not as fine-tuned as you think

[Anonymous No.9881761]

>>9880958
woah deep. I had theese philosophical remarks having baths as a 15 year old.