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/sci/ - Science & Math

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File: 27 KB, 500x281, Aubrey de Grey.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
9710283 No.9710283 [Reply] [Original]

aubrey de grey

Biomedical gerontologist Aubrey de Grey (PhD, University of Cambridge) believes that we have at least a 50% chance of achieving 'longevity escape velocity' (adding more than 1 year to our remaining lifespan each year) within the next 20 years. He has invested almost his entire net worth (less the value of his personal effects and primary residence) into a foundation working towards this goal, the SENS Research Foundation, based in Mountain View, California. (www.sens.org).

De Grey estimates that the SENS Research Foundation requires approximately $40m in annual funding to maximise the pace of the research - the limiting factor at that point being the inherent difficulty of the science.

The Foundation currently has approximately $5m in annual funding, and De Grey estimates that the speed of progress is currently only about a third of what it would be at $40m/year.

Do you believe in this project? Can it be achieved at all, on any timescale? And is it likely, in your view, that we will reach 'longevity escape velocity' in a ~20 year timeframe?

A brief introduction to his ideas and work: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x2o8LKdFtmY

Read his PhD manuscript here: http://www.sens.org/files/pdf/MiFRA-06.pdf

See here for his academic credentials: http://www.sens.org/sites/srf.org/files/AdG-CV.doc

And see here for details of the members of the Scientific Advisory Board of the SENS Research Foundation: http://www.sens.org/about/leadership/research-advisory-board

Here’s a recent video with BBC News: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/technology-43402894/aubrey-de-grey-treating-ageing-as-a-curable-disease

Aubrey solves decades-old ‘unsolvable’ math problems for fun in his spare time: http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/04/amateur-mathematician-cracks-decades-old-math-problem, https://www.quantamagazine.org/decades-old-graph-problem-yields-to-amateur-mathematician-20180417/

Aubrey interviewed on BBC HARDTalk: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BsR7L5nnmFY

>> No.9710381

Why are you listing all this minutiae?

Aubrey pls go

>> No.9710397
File: 7 KB, 275x183, cryonics.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
9710397

>>9710283
Also remember to sign up for cryonics in case aging isn't cured soon enough.

https://alcor.org/sciencefaq.htm
https://www.cryonics.org/about-us/faqs/
https://www.benbest.com/cryonics/CryoFAQ.html
https://www.cryonicscalculator.com/

>> No.9710447

>>9710283
>'longevity escape velocity
oh man i love that expression. how do i monetarily contribute to this cause?

>> No.9710453

>>9710447

Many donation options are available: www.sens.org/donate

>> No.9710475

>>9710453
Okay, which GRG member are you?

>> No.9710486

His IQ has to be in the 170s.

>> No.9710508

>>9710447
>become phd scientist in köln they have gerontology program
>become wealthy and donate to some organisation like sens

>> No.9711319

>>9710475

n-none of them

>> No.9711451

>>9710397
Even if cryonics works. Your consciousness does. It's the age old continuum problem. Same reason why a simple brainscan and "upload" does not work.
Your conscious needs to be a continuum, otherwise the new you may think it's the old you. But the you you died already

>> No.9711453

>>9711451
"Your consciousness dies"*

>> No.9711467

>>9711451
You might "die" every time you go to sleep, anon. Your new consciousness when you wake up just thinks it's the old consciousness before you went to sleep.

>> No.9711489

>>9711467
you just blew my mind, faggot

>> No.9711884

>>9711451

Proof?

>> No.9711992

>>9711489
his argument makes just as much sense as yours, assuming you're >>9711451

>> No.9712016

>>9710381
>MINUTIAE MINUTIAE MINUTIAE MINUTIAE MINUTIAE MINUTIAE MINUTIAE
FUCK OFF

>> No.9712119

>>9711451
*dies ever time i go to sleep*

>> No.9712121

>>9710486
Your mother's iq has to be in the 170's

>> No.9712124

>becoming a 3000 year old space monk who lives in an asteroid is a reasonable goal now
based

>> No.9712126

>>9712124
>not becoming 3000 yo space god emperor
stop being escapist piece of shit

>> No.9712132

>>9712126
youre right
maybe i should become a matrioshka brain and direct blasts of radiation at human settlements

>> No.9712142

>>9712132
That will teach them for creating you

>> No.9712143

>>9712132
>its either being asteroid dwelling virgin or murdering people
do you happen to browse r9k?

>> No.9712162

>>9710283
Either he's a retard or he wants to hype the field to get more funding. Probably the latter. Also keep in mind that his PhD wasn't awarded because of research, I don't think he has any proper lab experience.

Either way everything he says is very unrealistic. There won't be any escape velocity, if we find radical ways of stopping ageing, whether with senolytics or stem cell reprogramming, then the change in lifespan will also be radical, not gradual.

All that said, better the money going to research like this than useless shit rich people like to spend it on, so hype away.

>> No.9712170

Do you avoid consciousness continuum problems if you slowly adapt to a second brain or chip. If you wired a conscious brain and an artificial brain, then let the conscious brain use the second while slowly turning off sections of the first?
When humans augment brains with computers, is it even possible for a part of the consciousness to exist on the computer?

>> No.9712182

>>9712162
no one said its gonna be gradual, it just means you get more years of extra life than the years that have passed
if senolytics give us few more years it might be enough for some other therapy to appear and gradually well repair all the damage hopefully

>> No.9712202

>>9712170
>is it even possible for a part of the consciousness to exist on the computer?
i guess. it's not like flesh is magical or something.

>> No.9712234

>>9710283

I'm gonna laugh so hard when this man dies.

>> No.9712270

>>9712234

You first, old sport

>> No.9712273

>>9712162

> I don't think he has any proper lab experience

He's been running the lab at SENS for about 10 years. Numerous publications in that time.

>> No.9712302

>>9712273
Running the lab because you head an initiative doesn't mean having lab experience. His background is CS for heaven's sake. Problem is he hasn't worked at a lab himself and doesn't seem to understand how slow and inefficient research is, or he wouldn't be making all these grandiose claims. He's viewed with a lot of skepticism in the scientific community. Like I said above though, all this might be irrelevant since he may be playing dumb to attract investors.

>> No.9712421

>>9710283
>>9710381
OP can be summed up as:
>Do you believe in this project? Can it be achieved at all, on any timescale? And is it likely, in your view, that we will reach 'longevity escape velocity' in a ~20 year timeframe?
My answers:
>yes to all
>>9712162
radical/gradual are relative terms.

>> No.9712424

>>9712234
I don't care at all about if you die. As opposed to how you feel about guy in OP. Also as opposed to how I feel about guy in OP, I'll care a little bit.

>> No.9712425

>>9712302

What do you make of the members of his scientific advisory board?

These are quite eminent people - why would they jeopardise their reputations by endorsing something that is excessively speculative?

>> No.9712600

>>9710397

Alcor's service is quite reasonably priced. Might sign up if we go another 10 years without based SENS man making progress.

>> No.9712660

>>9712425
whatever you think of him, he gets lots of funding attention. anybody sitting on his board gets that exposure too, which means they have an opportunity to promote their other projects. so you get money and power for being on his board. assuming he doesn't completely fuck it up and start a suicide cult, that's a good deal for them.

>> No.9712703

>>9710283
>Do you believe in this project? Can it be achieved at all, on any timescale? And is it likely, in your view, that we will reach 'longevity escape velocity' in a ~20 year timeframe?

>Do you believe in this project?

Absolutely not. 'Ending aging' in the context of becoming negligibly senescent means curing cancer, all neurodegenerative diseases (Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, LBD, etc), artherosclerosis and coronary artery disease, and- on top of all of that - figuring out all the biological systems governing human aging (which we're not even remotely close to doing, despite telomeres being a known thing).

The world cumulatively spends probably about a trillion dollars or more per year on researching these problems. If he actually claims that he can achieve this within a 20-year time-frame, he is lying.

>Can it be achieved at all, on any timescale?

Totally, but short-term optimism on a problem of this scale is not realistic.

>And is it likely, in your view, that we will reach 'longevity escape velocity' in a ~20 year timeframe?

0% chance.

>> No.9712707

>>9712703

> The world cumulatively spends probably about a trillion dollars or more per year on researching these problems

No, it spends nothing even remotely like that on research related to those problems. It doesn't spend anywhere even remotely near $1trn/year on all medical research combined.

Disregarding the rest of your post due to this wildly wrong claim

>> No.9712714

>>9712707
>No, it spends nothing even remotely like that on research related to those problems. It doesn't spend anywhere even remotely near $1trn/year on all medical research combined.

Ah you're right - it's something more on the order of like $100 billion. I extrapolated from NIH's total budget, which is dramatically more than what other public and private entities contribute.

>Disregarding the rest of your post due to this wildly wrong claim

I'm not wrong about anything else in my post though. We are nowhere close to curing any of the top causes of human death in the developed world.

>> No.9712715

>>9712707

In the early 2010s, total global medical research spending was about $250 billion - unlikely to have quadrupled in 6 years

https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2014/01/02/us-medical-research-spending-drops-while-asia-makes-gains

>> No.9712719

>>9712714

> We are nowhere close to curing and of the top causes of human death in the developed world

I don't think this is actually true, but certainly we haven't made the degree of progress we should have made (we should have already solved these problems) because they're all diseases heavily associated with ageing, and we're not doing nearly enough to solve ageing. Look at the NIH budget, for example. All of the top causes of death are age-related diseases, but what percentage of the NIH budget is spent on ageing research?

The answer is about 1%. It's nutty.

>> No.9712726

>>9712719

As to the question of it actually being true: I think we are less than ten years away from achieving a very, very powerful therapy against atherosclerosis, which is one of the most devastating causes of death in the advanced countries.

I expect deaths from associated events and complications to be essentially negligible by 2030 in the richest countries (Western Europe, Japan, UK, Australia, USA, Canada etc).

>> No.9712738

>>9712719
>I don't think this is actually true

Cancer survival rates have increased by about 23% in 21 years, which, while awesome, isn't indicative of some upcoming asymptotic increase in cancer survival rate.

https://www.cancer.org/latest-news/cancer-statistics-report-death-rate-down-23-percent-in-21-years.html

Immunotherapy, manufactured cell therapies, and maybe gene therapy will stock the next generation of cancer drugs, but they are just coming out now. No signs that cancer is going to be cured in the next 20 years.

>All of the top causes of death are age-related diseases, but what percentage of the NIH budget is spent on ageing research?

Most of the top causes of the death aren't directly related to aging biology - just because cancer and heart disease are correlated with age doesn't mean that the experts in those fields are researching aging.

>we're not doing nearly enough to solve ageing

Even if we were able to nail down a complete picture of the cell biology surrounding aging, we don't have any tools to 'solve' it in humans. Our best gene-editing technology still ravages off-site regions of the genome, and like I mentioned earlier, there's no sign of a cancer panacea coming soon.

>> No.9712745

>>9712726
>I think we are less than ten years away from achieving a very, very powerful therapy against atherosclerosis, which is one of the most devastating causes of death in the advanced countries.

The standard test for someone's honesty over a prediction is whether they will bet on it. If you have insider information about a pre-clinical breakthrough therapy for artherosclerosis, you should have been funneling your disposable income into pharma stocks since yesterday.

>> No.9712747

>>9711451
Consciousness identity (like if it was an instance of a program running in the task manager) doesn't matter and our obsession with it stems from a confusion due to its end being a side effect of death.

>> No.9712753

>>9712162
> there won't be any escape velocity
So you're saying that all the causes of aging will be solved in one single swoop instead of gradually extending lifespan? That seems pretty unlikely.

>> No.9712787

>>9711451
Have not small children managed to get lost outside freeze to death and then wake up again without problem?

>> No.9712824

>he hasn't accepted his mortality
laughingholes.jpg

>> No.9712895

>>9712824

I fully accept my mortality, just not on the currently normal timescale.

I must die at some point, but there's no reason why it should be in 70 or 80 years. We can do better than that.

>> No.9712896

pretty hilarious that people think they're gonna live 1000 years when US healthcare has gotten so bad life expectancy is actually DECLINING

>> No.9712899

>>9712896
its peoples lifestyles declining
obesity is on the rise

>> No.9712904

>>9712899
infant mortality is way up too
access to medical care and preventative care specifically has gotten very poor. considering the train to libertarian paradise we're on shows no sign of stopping, I see no reason to believe this will change.

>> No.9713172

>>9711467
I might. But brain processes do not come to an end and then jve to be restarted

>>9712170
I absolutely think that is the solution to the continuum problem, yes. One could theoretically replace the brain neuron per neuron without glitches in the neural processing. For the signals in the brain there would be, not even for just a small timestep, a difference occurring

>>9712747
Sure it does. Your confusing comes from not knowing what the continuum problem is, I guess.

>>9712787
Well, as I said, even if cryonics works. Your body lives again. Your character roams the world, it's not the same consciousness as the one which died. So your subjective experience of the world ceases to exist as you die.

>> No.9713280

>>9710283
this probably won't happen because they don't have nearly enough money. i think he's right, but they have nowhere near enough funding. maybe in a few years when they get some proof that some of it translates to humans, some rich middle aged dudes will back them.

>> No.9713336

>>9713280
thiel already donates i think
cuckerberg, elon cucks and cuck gates are restrained by their wives

>> No.9713591

>>9710397
If you ever freeze yourself, you should invest in the cryonics company that froze you. If they're successfully unfreezing people, their stock will be through the roof. If they're not, you won't be alive to collect any money anyway.

>> No.9713596

>>9712703
>(which we're not even remotely close to doing, despite telomeres being a known thing)

This is really funny because de Grey is one of the people who don't think telomers control aging, and to be honest the research isn't conclusive at all so he could well be right.

>> No.9713597

>>9710283
I would be unsurprised if we don't reach "longevity escape velocity" by the end of the century, and surprised if we don't by the end of the next century. It's totally possible.

>> No.9713868

>>9713596
Great for him that he can exercise skepticism over the caps on chromosomes but not on his own bullshit claim that we're going to be immortal god emperors by 2100.

>> No.9714026
File: 51 KB, 1280x720, why-aubrey-de-grey-takes-an-inte.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
9714026

https://discord.gg/ftSbffu

.

>> No.9715097

Is Greyposting a new fad?

>> No.9715342

Does anyone know why OP listed all that minutiae?

>> No.9715445

>>9713597
Unfortunately you'd have to add a year to the life expectancy of ever older people

>> No.9715797

>>9715097
If by new you mean since last year, then yes. Ageing research threads used to be quite sparse 3 years back, but they've been getting more frequent as more and more people invest and advertise it.

>> No.9715822

>>9710283
>5m/yr
>about a third
>40m/yr

>> No.9715840

>>9715822
>what are diminishing returns

>> No.9715871

>>9715822

brainlet spotted

>> No.9716087

>>9711451
Your consciousness is not a true continuum anyway. Thoughts have afferent and efferent signals that place them in a perceptual continuum but in of themselves they are discrete. There is no constant you. If i were to flawlessly copy your brain at this moment in a clone body it would feel proper continuity and would be you as truly as you are.

>> No.9716172

>>9711451
>needs to be continuum
I understand what you're saying and agree to a certain extent but if that's true I've already died.

>> No.9716394

>>9715342

Because he is Aubrey, fishing for NEETbux to finish his immortality quest.

>> No.9716887

>>9710453

donated $0.02, hope this helps

>> No.9716996

Why is no national government funding anything like this?

If you could even delay the diseases of ageing by 10 or 20 years, (let alone obviate them entirely) the economic impact would be hugely positive (you'd avoid much of the very high healthcare spending and reduced productivity of the elderly). Given that the current costs are so high, you'd think that modest investments in projects like this (in the tens of billions annually) would make a lot of sense, and a trivial amount like $40m/yr would be nothing to pay for it.

What gives?

>> No.9717422

>>9716996

because they're dumb

>> No.9717429

>>9710283
>adding more than 1 year to our remaining lifespan each year
Is calling it "immortality" too autistic?

>> No.9717444

>>9717429

That isn't immortality though, it's only a kind of 'actuarial immortality'.

>> No.9717467

>>9716996
because people would cry that gov wastes their precious money on anti-god magic instead of raising their salaries

>> No.9717490

>>9716996
Because they are.
But instead of funding it directly, most western nations keep their universities running, at a net cost, to research whatever.
And whatever happens to include medicine, snapping up students for patents, material research, and research towards aging.
>Why isn't more being spent
Because 20-30 period research is very quickly to turn into snake oil. So you should never spend directly towards it at a large scale, because it will just reward targeted conmen.
Its also limited to how far things like stem cell research has progressed.

>> No.9717511

>>9712126
>he hasn't evolved beyond the desire or need for an imperium
for the Greater Good you fag

>> No.9717518

>>9717429
Well, I mean...you could go even MORE autistic and call it life++ (or maybe ++life), then "immortality" becomes the less autistic alternative

>> No.9717802

>>9713591
Underrated

>> No.9718787

>>9710486

He is said to have a near perfect SAT score - such intelligence on earth has previously only existed in Asian families that drowned at least two daughters.

>> No.9719200

>>9718787

lol wtf

>> No.9719694

>>9712234

He's going to make it, and you cannot stop him.

>> No.9721007

Is this guy a conman, a sorcerer or a genius?

>> No.9721108

>>9721007
Are these things mutually exclusive?

>> No.9721815

>>9721108

If he's a conman and a genius, surely he'd have made more money by now?

>> No.9721838

>>9716996
>If you could even delay the diseases of ageing by 10 or 20 years, (let alone obviate them entirely) the economic impact would be hugely positive (you'd avoid much of the very high healthcare spending and reduced productivity of the elderly).
A majority of people will be permanently unemployed in the near future, due to advances in automation technology. The ruling elite doesn´t need millions of double-digit IQ net drains on society (people who receive more direct and indirect government assistance during their lifetime than they themselves produce by working) living for another 20 years.

Kaczynski elaborates on this; an excerpt of his writings on the subject can be found in a thread on /sci/ that was alive yesterday.

>> No.9721888

>>9712904
>libertarian paradise

You must be fucking joking. I am no libertarian, but I am somewhat familiar with the doctrine and main points. The way the US is headed is so far from that it is simply laughable.

>> No.9721936

>>9710283
>end aging
i am for this if it actually ends aging (getting old and fragile), but not if it just delays death. the world does not need more elderly being supported by the young

>> No.9721941

>>9721838
Mass unemployment has never followed mechanisation of fields for any durable period. Learn some basic history beyond what your pyschology professor says

>> No.9721943

>>9716996
it is, but hidden from public. the elite will be the ones wanting this so they can rule forever

>> No.9721954

>>9721943
I know 'elites' if you consider ex-goldman sachs CEOs, citibank partners, football team owners. They get affected by the same diseases, have ill children, get the same treatment (just quicker and more focused). Unless we are talking some nebulously 'elite' elite then no they aren't holding back secret cancer cures.

>> No.9721958

>>9710283
Haven't researchers already found Epitalon as the substance to reduce/stop aging?

>> No.9721965

>>9721958
> an anti-oxidant for rats is the cure for ageing

>> No.9721972

>>9721965
>A peptide that extends the life cycle of cells, which all lifeforms are comprised of
LOL What an idiot for thinking that Epitalon, which has shown to extend organisms lifespans, could possibility extent an organism's lifespan. A total brainlet! XD.

>> No.9721998

>>9721972
Shown to extend life span in rats. Nothing new. We can do miraculous things with mice and rats, completely uninteresting when it comes to what we can do for humans.

>> No.9722001

>>9721838
Then those people get sterilized/kept until they can get IQ boosted. The "elite" aren't gods, they're just very competent people in charge and have to manage resources effectively. One important resource to manage is the co-operation of society, without which you get communist revolutions. Just because someone becomes a drain on society doesn't mean you can dispose of them.

>> No.9722003

>>9721998
Bend over and I'll give you something miraculous.

>> No.9722514

>>9710283
fuck off back to /x/, retard.

>> No.9722523

>>9710283
>Aubrey de Grey [...] believes that we have at least a 50% chance of achieving 'longevity escape velocity'
Let me guess.. Either it happens or it doesn't?

>> No.9722549

>>9712425
>What do you make of the members of his scientific advisory board?
What do you make of Theranos advisory board?

>> No.9722561

>>9712234

suck a cock

>> No.9723539

>>9721943

For how long?

>> No.9724212
File: 87 KB, 1200x675, 1500376531352.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
9724212

>>9710283
NAKED MOLE RATS
The only good thing to come out of Africa.

https://www.unz.com/akarlin/naked-mole-rats-sort-of-dont-age/

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/20/science/naked-mole-rats-metabolism-video.html

https://www.realclearscience.com/2018/01/29/naked_mole_rats_defy_biological_law_of_aging_279846.html

https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/02/naked-mole-rats-may-be-able-to-shut-down-cells-to-avoid-cancer/

>> No.9724218

>>9711451
Cryonics are a different matter from uploading your brain.

>> No.9724220

>>9712170
Think of it this way: If you make a perfect clone of yourself, then the clone would still be a different person from you.
Same by just replicating your brain on a chip.
Anything that isn`t just replication should work

>> No.9724668

>>9710283
Am I really supposed to believe someone who isn't even able to shave his own beard?

>> No.9725017

I can't believe this man does any serious lab work with that beard

>> No.9725022

>>9711451
Google the Moravec Transfer

>> No.9725029

>>9712600
The Cryonics Institute is cheaper. CI is around 30k for full body preservation, and Alcor is around 80k for neuropreservation. I'm thinking of signing up with CI while I'm a poorfag and live closer to CI's headquarters, and then maybe switching to Alcor in my 30s if my income allows it.

>> No.9725059

>>9724668
>>9725017
He's said (on quora) that he keeps it because his wife likes it.

>> No.9725153

>>9719694

That's what you think. He goes out in public and is highly recognizable. Very few men have a beard so prodigious.

>> No.9725165

>>9725017
I don't think he does any lab work anyway, he isn't a bioscientist

>> No.9725209

the day immortality is discovered is the day we die as a species.