/sci/ - Science & Math

[tinycat !KqX7GCexMg!!NqU6wU7JQ+v No.965076]

Im having trouble working something out.

im farming a boss that has an 8% drop rate of what i need, and has a chance of doping 3 times per fight.

Shouldn't my chance of getting the drop at least one time per fight be

(0.08 + 0.08 + 0.08) - (0.92 * 0.92 * 0.92) ?

But this results in a negative number

halp

[Anonymous No.965081]

seems like you theory craft but don't use thotbot?
Also the odds wont stop you farming no matter how low they are, I know I'm an ex-wowfag

[3rdyearChemfag !Zm8pCdtzww No.965084]

use bayes formula.

[tinycat !KqX7GCexMg!!NqU6wU7JQ+v No.965089]

>>965081
not playing wow.

this is more a question of trying to work out overall probability.

Its always been my understanding that in a situation like this, where you know the chance that something will happen, to figure out the chances of it happening over a series of 'tries', you add up the chances of it happening, then subtract them from the chances of it not happening multiplied together like that.


For example a thing with a 20% chance of happening, over 5 tries, will happen at least once with a

1 - 0.327 = 67% chance

[Anonymous No.965096]

each drop is independent of each other

[Anonymous No.965097]

I'm coming up with 32.33 repeating of course.

[Anonymous No.965100]

>>965089
typical wowfag denial.

[tinycat !KqX7GCexMg!!NqU6wU7JQ+v No.965103]

>>965096
but there is a way to figure out probability over multiple separate attempts.

each drop has an 8% chance, but you can figure out what the chance of getting it at least once over say, 12 drops is.

the method ive posted always seemed to work for me and make sense.

apparently its not the real way to figure this out but just a sort of shortcut that wont work in some situations. like the one ive encountered here apparently.

[Anonymous No.965106]

>>965075
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[Anonymous No.965115]

>>965089
Theres a difference between AT LEAST once and once.
At least once can be calculated by 1 - never happening. So in that boss encounter, the probability of not dropping is 0.92. It not dropping all three times is 0.92^3. Therefore the probability of it dropping at least once is 1-0.92^3 ~= .22

[Anonymous No.965121]

>>965097

Leeroy, you're just stupid as hell.

[3rdyearChemfag !Zm8pCdtzww No.965122]

[tinycat !KqX7GCexMg!!NqU6wU7JQ+v No.965127]

>>965115
Oh, alright.

Thanks!