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/sci/ - Science & Math

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File: 153 KB, 701x576, 1521090829157.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
9593878 No.9593878[DELETED]  [Reply] [Original]

>crypto intellectuals

>> No.9593890

50%

>> No.9593898

>>9593878
Is this a bait image? It's obviously 50$

>> No.9593920

>>9593878
2/3

>> No.9593953

>>9593878
Here's a different problem I was wondering about.

Suppose I have two boxes. One has 1000 silver balls, and one has 1000 gold balls. I know which one is which and I'm going to hand you one of them. But I'm stacking the game. I'll hand you the box of silvers 0.1% of the time, and the box of golds 99.9% of the time.

So, I hand you a box.
You now hold a box in your hand. I ask you to draw a ball. What is the chance you draw a gold ball?

>> No.9594308

>>9593953
As long as I don't know which box it is, the chance is 99.9%. It doesn't matter that you've already handed the box to me.

>> No.9594322
File: 14 KB, 728x441, bertrandBox.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
9594322

>>9593878
2/3

>> No.9594338

>>9594308
>as long as I don't know which box it is
If you knew, would it change the odds that you would draw a gold ball?

>> No.9594340

>>9593878
50%

>> No.9594386

>>9593878
https://onlinegdb.com/SJ7-knDFz
>Events: 3334921
>Out of: 5002330
>Raito: 0.666674

>> No.9594656

>>9593878
50%

>>9594386
There's a bug in your code, anon:
auto ballindex = random_range(0,1);
This needs to always be 0 for the OP's question, or always 1 in your code since you arranged the balls in reverse compared to the image.
If you fix it you'll get the correct result.

>> No.9594800

>>9593878
Given that the ball isn't taken randomly out of the box, but it's specifically stated that the left ball is taken out of the box, and if the doodle is supposed to accurately represent the situation at hand, the solution has to be 50% because there's only two situations, namely you picked the left ball of the first box or you picked the left ball of the second box.

If the pick of the ball within the box was random, it would've been 2/3 because you'd have to account the probability for both cases within the first box.

>> No.9594874

>>9593878
As this is posted every day: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand%27s_box_paradox

>> No.9594899

>>9594874
>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand%27s_box_paradox
it seems to me that the specification of choosing a coin from the left side in the OP means that theses problems are different. In the article you link the unintuitive solution comes from the fact that you draw a coin from any side.