/sci/ - Science & Math

[Anonymous No.8797671]

Okay I made a thread on /r9k/ attempting to roll dubs and it took 44 posts for dubs to be struck
>>>/r9k/35960001
Can a mathfag tell me what the probability like percent chance of dubs being looked for 43 times and not showing up on 4chan? It has to be some insanely low number

[Anonymous No.8797676]

(9/10)^43 roughly = 1%, now fuck off

[Anonymous No.8797679]

>>8797676
I'm not satisfied by that at all and I wouldn't consider your cursory explanation or attitude to be that of a true mathematician

[Anonymous No.8797685]

>>8797679
The probability of dubs is 1/10
since 00, 11, 22....99 are 10, and there are 100 different configurations for the last 2 digits (00, 01, 02.....99)

So the probability of NOT being dubs is 9/10 =(1-1/10)
and the probability of that happening 43 times is
(9/10)^43

[Anonymous No.8797688]

So I would calculate 0.9 to the power of 43 to get a percentage????

[Anonymous No.8797699]

Sorry I'm retarded you are right it's a 1/100 thread not as rare as I thought it was :c

[Anonymous No.8797705]

>>8797699
Except you literally just based it off 1 thread.
You need to do a study of 100 threads and average all results together.

[Anonymous No.8797711]

>>8797705
>average results

Ehh... you are right but also wrong. Sure, if you were to take averages using many different threads (or even many different boards) then you would find that the probability found through that method deviates from the predicted probability and sure, you could maybe explain those deviations with some facts about how different threads behave in a board but in the end, if you were to analyze infinitely many threads in infinitely many boards in the end you would find that all those small details about when and where your thread was made average out to 0 again and you end up with the predicted probability. So your argument basically is:

>flip 100 coins and look at that, the odds are actually 44% to 56%. Probability DEBUNKED!

[Anonymous No.8797717]

>>8797711

Ill be more specific:
Do a study on 100 threads per day posted at the same time every day, on the same board every time.
Average that and take don't take the value you get too seriously.

There you go, happy now?

[Anonymous No.8797719]

>>8797717
Ill be more specific.
Flip 100 coins per day at the same time every day, on the same room every time. Average that.

>Oh, look at that. The probability is actually 49% to 51%. Probability debunked once again

[Anonymous No.8797724]

>>8797719
Flipping a coin and making dubs threads aren't the same thing

The time you flip a coin is much less likely to have any effect.
Whereas posting a dubs thread at night would see lower activity which means easier to get dubs.

[Anonymous No.8797761]

>>8797724
The point that anon is trying to make is that there is a difference between probabilities calculated from experiment and probabilities calculated theoretically. The OP's question was related to the theoretical probability that an actual observed event occurs, which has nothing to do with the time of day or the amount of averages taken. The only thing that actually making a dubs thread does is verify whether the theory is correct.

>posting a dubs thread at night would see lower activity which means easier to get dubs.
Why does lower activity mean it's easier to get dubs? It might take more time to get posts, but the number of dubs shouldn't change.

[Anonymous No.8797768]

>>8797761
Op here if the board is slow it's possible to try to shoot for dubs which could drastically impact results but r9k and b move so fast it's practically random every time unless someone is using a bot or other means to try to increase chances of getting dubs which probably isn't that common. Thanks for teaching me this formula though it's awesome and I'm going to sperg out calculating theoretical probabilities all the time now.