You can solve this, can't you anon?

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Anonymous Tue Jul 5 23:11:17 2016 No.8186389 [DELETED]

You can solve this, can't you anon?

>>	Anonymous Tue Jul 5 23:12:54 2016 No.8186392 >>8186389 50/50

>>	Anonymous Tue Jul 5 23:13:45 2016 No.8186396 >>8186389 Its 2/3 fuck off with this

>>	Anonymous Tue Jul 5 23:15:55 2016 No.8186400 2/0

>>	Anonymous Tue Jul 5 23:16:53 2016 No.8186402 File: 20 KB, 346x344, 1408430898302.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>8186400 >>8186396 >>8186392 Not quite

>>	Anonymous Tue Jul 5 23:17:17 2016 No.8186404 >>8186389 2/3

>>	Anonymous Tue Jul 5 23:18:54 2016 No.8186408 >>8186404 >>8186396 Isn't there a 50/50 chance you pulled from the double gold box?

>>	Anonymous Tue Jul 5 23:19:11 2016 No.8186409 File: 65 KB, 500x377, image.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>8186402 1/3

>>	Anonymous Tue Jul 5 23:20:28 2016 No.8186413 >>8186408 No theres a 2/3 chance you pulled it from the double gold an a 1/3 chance you pulled from the gold/silver

Anonymous Tue Jul 5 23:28:33 2016 No.8186428

from random import randint

gold = 0
silver = 1
boxes = ( [gold, gold], [gold, silver], [silver, silver] )

total = 0
num_next_ball_gold = 0
for i in range(1000000):
box_num = randint(0, 2)
box = boxes[box_num]

ball_choice = randint(0, 1)
ball = box[ball_choice]

if ball_choice == gold:

other_ball_choice = (ball_choice + 1) % 2
other_ball = box[other_ball_choice]

total += 1
num_next_ball_gold += (0 if other_ball != gold else 1)

print(num_next_ball_gold/total)

python prog/ballproblem.py
0.3333692886049754

>>	Anonymous Tue Jul 5 23:30:21 2016 No.8186433 >>8186428 Im not sure what you did, but you fucked up

>>	Anonymous Tue Jul 5 23:30:31 2016 No.8186434 >>8186428 Sorry lads, not sure how to format code on this board :^) http://hastebin.com/raw/erumuyexus

>>	Anonymous Tue Jul 5 23:35:07 2016 No.8186439 Sorry lads, it looks like I messed up the code, it should be if "ball == gold", not if "ball_choice == gold" (ball_choice is just the index). I need some type safety, anyways corrected answer is 2/3 :^)

Anonymous Tue Jul 5 23:39:06 2016 No.8186443

If you already have a gold ball in your hand and you have to draw from the same box, there's a fifty-fifty chance that the box you're limited to is the one that has not one, but two balls. If this was a sporting event, you'd be hard-pressed to find a bookie to take the bet in either direction. I don't math, so maybe I'm wrong.

>>	Anonymous Tue Jul 5 23:40:28 2016 No.8186448 >>8186439 Yeah you shouldn't use python for that reason. Functional languages are better for math.

Anonymous Tue Jul 5 23:42:01 2016 No.8186451

2-1, in favor of two gold balls.

Now, the reason that it's 2-1 in favor of the two gold balls is because we start out with six balls, eliminating the two silvers in the silver box, as we pulled a gold one out. That leaves two gold and one silver unseen. Therefore, the odds are 2-1 that the other ball is gold.

>>	Anonymous Tue Jul 5 23:42:16 2016 No.8186453 >>8186389 thats not the final box, it's the second box

Anonymous Tue Jul 5 23:42:47 2016 No.8186455

>>8186389
It's 50/50.
Because you have a gold ball, that means you either: Got the silver+gold box, or the gold+gold box.
If it was the silver+gold, then you must pull out a silver next.
If it was the gold+gold than you must pull out out a gold next.
There is a 50/50 chance of it being gold+gold. So therefore it is a 50/50 chance you will pull out a gold next.

Anonymous Tue Jul 5 23:43:13 2016 No.8186458

>>8186443
>If you already have a gold ball in your hand and you have to draw from the same box, there's a fifty-fifty chance that the box you're limited to is the one that has not one, but two balls.
False. If you have a gold ball in your hand it is twice as likely you picked the box with two gold balls in it than the box with one gold ball.

>>	Anonymous Tue Jul 5 23:44:11 2016 No.8186459 >>8186455 >>8186458 NVM this guy is right.

>>	Anonymous Tue Jul 5 23:44:26 2016 No.8186463 >>8186455 False. See >>8186458

Anonymous Tue Jul 5 23:45:51 2016 No.8186468

it's a 50% chance to draw a gold ball in the first place: 1/3 for the double gold box plus (1/3) / 2 for the mixed box (1/3 for the box and half of that for the golden ball).

It's a 50% chance to draw another golden ball after you have made your choice and already gotten a golden ball. The double silver box doesn't factor in, because it doesn't satisfy the initial condition of being able to draw the first golden ball. The double golden ball will net another golden ball. The mixed box will never yield a golden ball, as you already have the one from it in your hand.

You pick boxes, not balls.

Anonymous Tue Jul 5 23:50:04 2016 No.8186473

You are a biologist traveling in the rainforest. You are bitten by a poisonous snake. Luckily, you know that the antidote for this poison is secreted by the female of a certain species of frog native to this rainforest. You remember that females and males of this species look exactly the same, and can only be distinguished by the distinctive croaking of the male. You also remember that the population is split evenly between females and males. Amazingly, you spot a frog of this species in front of you. At the same time you hear the distinctive croak of a male of the species behind you. You turn around and see two frogs where the croak came from. You are starting to fade out and only have enough time to run to the frog in front of you and lick it or to the frogs behind you and lick them. Which choice will maximize your chance of survival?

Anonymous Tue Jul 5 23:50:16 2016 No.8186474

>>8186455
You could have pulled either of the two gold balls in the first box. You must have pulled the gold ball out of the two balls in the gold/silver box. With two gold balls unseen, and only one silver ball unseen, the odds are 2-1 in favor of the gold only box.

>>	Anonymous Tue Jul 5 23:51:11 2016 No.8186476 >>8186468 >It's a 50% chance to draw another golden ball after you have made your choice and already gotten a golden ball. No. See >>8186458

>>	Anonymous Tue Jul 5 23:51:56 2016 No.8186478 >>8186458 You aren't taking the odds from the beginning, just from the point where you already have one gold ball in your hand. Previous factors are inconsequential.

>>	Anonymous Tue Jul 5 23:53:06 2016 No.8186481 >>8186476 Yes, see >You pick boxes, not balls.

>>	Anonymous Tue Jul 5 23:53:25 2016 No.8186483 >>8186478 >just from the point where you already have one gold ball in your hand At which point you are more likely to have picked one box over another

>>	OP Tue Jul 5 23:53:58 2016 No.8186484 >>8186478 This guy got it

Anonymous Tue Jul 5 23:54:00 2016 No.8186485

>>8186478
>You aren't taking the odds from the beginning, just from the point where you already have one gold ball in your hand.
That's exactly what I'm doing.

>Previous factors are inconsequential.
What is the chance of collecting cash from the lottery given you have a winning ticket? Oh I guess it's very small since having the winning ticket came before you collected the cash!

>>	Anonymous Tue Jul 5 23:54:13 2016 No.8186486 >>8186476 But that post is wrong. you can simplify the problem to two boxes with a golden ball and a silver ball respectively and just ask someone to pick a box at random. The second ball doesn't matter.

>>	Anonymous Tue Jul 5 23:54:26 2016 No.8186487 >>8186481 And holding a gold ball means its more likely you picked the first box than the second

>>	Anonymous Tue Jul 5 23:55:01 2016 No.8186488 >>8186481 You pick a box and then you pick a ball. Since you picked a gold ball it is more likely you chose the box with two gold balls in it.

>>	Anonymous Tue Jul 5 23:55:03 2016 No.8186489 >>8186487 Nope, see: >>8186486

>>	Anonymous Tue Jul 5 23:56:46 2016 No.8186493 >>8186483 ...which is a factor that no longer matters. You're left with one ball that can either be gold or silver. there are only two possible outcomes from that point and only one available ball to pick. It's 50/50.

>>	Anonymous Tue Jul 5 23:57:35 2016 No.8186495 File: 205 KB, 505x431, 1448051133001.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>8186488 >>8186487 >You pick box at random >Random meaning equal distribution over time >This means you pick one box more than the other F-

>>	Anonymous Tue Jul 5 23:57:42 2016 No.8186496 >>8186489 >>8186493 Afraid not https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand%27s_box_paradox

Anonymous Tue Jul 5 23:58:00 2016 No.8186498

>>8186486
>you can simplify the problem to two boxes with a golden ball and a silver ball respectively and just ask someone to pick a box at random.
No, that would be a completely different problem. If you are too stubborn to get it, I suggest you take two coins, flip them, and count how many times both are heads out of the times at least one is heads. You'll find it's 2/3, not 1/2.

Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:00:44 2016 No.8186499

>>8186495
>>8186493
>>8186489
You pick a random box and take a gold ball out if it. Given that you pulled a gold ball of the box you chose, its more likely to be one box than the others. Of the 3 original boxes, the SS box has a 0/3 chance of being the box you picked because it has no gold balls. The GS box has a 1/3 chance of being the box you picked, because of the 3 gold balls you might be holding, the GS box has 1. the GG box has a 2/3 chance of being the box you picked, because it contains 2 of the 3 gold balls you might be holding in your hand

Its unintuitive, but true

Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:01:04 2016 No.8186500

>>8186495
Probability is simply a measure of what knowledge you have at a certain time. Picking a gold ball tells you that you probably chose from the box with two gold balls when you chose randomly. If you don't think the information you have can change the probability that something occurred, then you would think that having the winning lottery ticket does not change your probability of collecting the jackpot to (almost) 1 from what was previously a very small probability.

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:01:37 2016 No.8186501 Newfag here. How do I sage this crap? I've seen this exact thread before.

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:02:34 2016 No.8186503 >>8186501 Sage goes in all fields. And answer this >>8186473 if you think you know everything.

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:02:52 2016 No.8186504 >>8186501 Dont open the thread

Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:04:37 2016 No.8186507

>>8186496
According to the way the question is phrased here, only the odds of the second ball are in question. The paradox you presented covers the overall odds of collecting two objects of the same color from a possible three combinations. The way you interpreted it makes sense if you use your interpretation of the question. If you take it as it's stated, there's only a 50/50 chance.

More proof that OP is a faggot.

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:06:40 2016 No.8186511 >>8186507 The question is clear, there is only one correct interpretation and you are not making it

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:07:08 2016 No.8186512 >>8186507 >According to the way the question is phrased here, only the odds of the second ball are in question. The odds of the second ball are completely determined by the probability that you chose the box with two golds. It's the same exact problem.

Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:09:34 2016 No.8186513

>>8186473
The only way to identify the needed frog is by it's croak? Only the two behind you made a noise, so if you can lick them both behind you, I'd say there's a 100% chance that you'd survive if you grabbed the two behind you. Did you mean to phrase it that way?

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:11:29 2016 No.8186515 >>8186513 >The only way to identify the needed frog is by it's croak? Can you not read? The antidote is only secreted by females. The croak is distinct to males.

Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:12:17 2016 No.8186516

>>8186498
>I suggest you take two coins, flip them, and count how many times both are heads out of the times at least one is heads. You'll find it's 2/3, not 1/2.

Actually I'm simulating this right now and it's exactly 50%

Just so we're understanding your example here:
>Flip two coins
>If one OR the other coin is heads, count it as one head
>If BOTH are heads, count it as both heads

You're saying this should result 2/3 both head vs 1/3 one head?

Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:12:53 2016 No.8186517

>>8186511
the question is clearly stated as: "What is the probability that the next ball you take from the same box will also be gold?"

It's not asking for the combined probability, only the probability of the second ball, and it can only be one of two choices.

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:14:42 2016 No.8186520 >>8186515 I can read just fine. No problem with comprehension, either. Maybe you'd better reread what you wrote.

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:15:51 2016 No.8186521 >>8186517 >and it can only be one of two choices. Yes, and one is more likely than the other

Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:17:25 2016 No.8186524

>>8186520
Females secrete the antidote:
>Luckily, you know that the antidote for this poison is secreted by the female of a certain species of frog native to this rainforest.

The croak is distinct to males:
>You remember that females and males of this species look exactly the same, and can only be distinguished by the distinctive croaking of the male.

Next time someone tells you to read, do it.

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:18:07 2016 No.8186526 >>8186521 Lets be clear - the question is only asking the result of the equivalent of one coin toss.

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:19:26 2016 No.8186531 >>8186524 You win this one, faggot. Your question still sucks and I was the only one to respond. You've trolled successfully.

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:19:31 2016 No.8186532 >>8186526 No, it's not. The wikipedia article explains it perfectly and is exactly the same as the problem asked.

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:20:32 2016 No.8186535 >>8186531 You wouldn't get the right answer even if you read it correctly.

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:23:04 2016 No.8186539 >>8186532 You are referring to the overall odds. As stated, this question isn't asking for the overall odds of two choices, only the odds of the second choice. 50/50 The wiki article would apply if OP had phrased the question right.

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:24:15 2016 No.8186542 >>8186535 Maybe not, but I've had sex with a real girl.

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:25:04 2016 No.8186544 >>8186539 OPs question is phrased perfectly, you are just failing to comprehend it correctly. You are answering the question you think its asking, not the actual question

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:26:02 2016 No.8186546 >>8186498 >>8186516 Hey fucker, I want an answer.

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:28:22 2016 No.8186551 >>8186544 No, I'm taking the literal meaning. You're inferring that the answer is the paradox you presented. I may not maths, but I English very well.

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:29:07 2016 No.8186554 File: 42 KB, 917x959, this needs a tripple intergral to solve.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] I cooked up a picture because who doesn't like pictures?

Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:31:46 2016 No.8186559

>>8186554
You're still considering the other boxes in the overall equation. The question is clearly phrased as only wanting the odds of the second ball. Regardless of how many balls or combinations you started with, the odds of the last ball being silver or gold is 50/50

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:32:27 2016 No.8186560 >>8186551 There is no paradox. You chose a box, and are then given information about the box you chose. The information you are given means that the box you chose is more likely to be one than the others

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:33:28 2016 No.8186562 >>8186559 >The question is clearly phrased as only wanting the odds of the second ball This is identical to asking which box you chose. If the next ball is gold you chose box A, if the next ball is silver you chose box B

Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:35:05 2016 No.8186564

>>8186559
>What is the probability that the next ball you take from the same box will also be gold
So according to you "same box" does not refer to anything, and "next ball" does not refer to the gold ball you picked out of that box. Because you are so good at English.

Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:36:44 2016 No.8186566

>>8186560
at the point where the question picks up in the overall equation, you have one box with one ball that is either gold or silver, and you have to choose that one. 50/50

Where's a lawyer when you need one? I can't explain the question any better. You're inferring a complex equation when all that's being asked about is the second ball.

You think I'm just bad at math, but you're reading into the question too deeply.

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:37:00 2016 No.8186567 >>8186542 Sure you did buddy, sure you did. "Real girls" get so horny around illiteracy.

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:38:01 2016 No.8186568 >>8186560 If you were the one that included the wiki link, it literally says "paradox" in the article. I was just pulling from your source. Blame yourself.

Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:38:47 2016 No.8186569

>>8186566
>at the point where the question picks up in the overall equation, you have one box with one ball that is either gold or silver, and you have to choose that one. 50/50
The box with the gold ball is twice as likely. You are just assuming it's 50/50 without thinking about what information you have.

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:39:01 2016 No.8186572 >>8186562 Right. Two choices.

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:40:02 2016 No.8186574 >>8186567 Don'y be jel

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:41:04 2016 No.8186577 >>8186566 At the point the question is asked, you have already picked a box. You are given information about that box, namely that it contains at least one gold ball. This information affects the odds that the box you picked is box a or box b or box c

Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:42:02 2016 No.8186581
File: 62 KB, 761x671, chrome_2016-07-06_06-41-04.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]

So I just rand the whole thing in a simulator. Wanna guess the result? It's 50%.

Or I did a really stupid mistake, if so, please point me towards it so I can fix it.

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:42:10 2016 No.8186582 >>8186572 >Right. Two choices. The choice was made at the start of the question. Its asking what the odds are that you made a specific choice given the information you have been given. You are not making a new choice at the point the question is asked

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:43:29 2016 No.8186584 >>8186577 You're still factoring in the second and third boxes. They no longer apply, as that stage is in the past. What remains is the same possibility of a silver or a gold ball coming next. 50/50

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:44:54 2016 No.8186586 >>8186582 You're still inferring information that isn't there.

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:46:07 2016 No.8186589 >>8186581 # of times the second ball was gold: 33472 # of times the second ball was not gold: 16646 Yup, clearly the same...

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:47:11 2016 No.8186592 >>8186584 >You are still factoring in all the information you are given to calculate a probability Oh wow, what a mistake.

Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:48:00 2016 No.8186594

>>8186584
>>8186586
There are 3 boxes. The first box contains a thousand gold balls. The second contains 999 silver balls and 1 gold ball. The third box contains a thousand gold balls. You randomly pick a box, reach in and pull out a gold ball. What are the odds that you are holding the first box?

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:48:46 2016 No.8186596 >>8186586 You're ignoring information that is there. It's funny because you're fine with reducing the chance you took from the box with two silver from 1/3 to 0, but you won't modulate the other probabilities. You're being hypocritical.

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:49:01 2016 No.8186597 >>8186594 Sorry that should be the third box contains 1000 silver balls, my bad

Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:51:24 2016 No.8186603

>>8186592
It's not asking for the odds from three boxes anymore. Essentially, once you've removed a gold ball from one box, the third is eliminated. The second is immediately eliminated by default since you can't choose from it anyway, so it doesn't matter what's in it, so the odds of picking a gold ball out of one box with only one choice and two possible outcomes is 50/50.

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:51:51 2016 No.8186605 >>8186589 Sorry, percentage was wrong, here is the code for yourself to try: https://jsfiddle.net/0kz9ox9j/1/

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:52:25 2016 No.8186606 >>8186592 Don't misquote me.

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:53:16 2016 No.8186608 File: 6 KB, 945x98, Capture.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>8186428 I got something different.

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:53:26 2016 No.8186609 >>8186594 That changes the problem entirely.

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:54:02 2016 No.8186610 >>8186603 Its asking the odds of your original choice out of the 3 boxes having been the first box

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:54:10 2016 No.8186611 File: 161 KB, 701x576, how did you graduate 4th grade.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>8186603

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:54:33 2016 No.8186612 >>8186605 >>8186605 >>8186605 Look at this, you can literally run the experiment yourself and look at the evidence.

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:55:02 2016 No.8186616 >>8186609 Its exactly the same problem

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:55:32 2016 No.8186617 >>8186596 You may be good at math, but the question was poorly phrased. If you interpret it the way you did, you're right. If interpreted literally, I am.

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:56:33 2016 No.8186621 >>8186616 How so, sports fan?

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:58:38 2016 No.8186627 File: 140 KB, 701x576, sure.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>8186617 You mean like this?

Anonymous Wed Jul 6 00:59:15 2016 No.8186630

>>8186621
All I did was make the numbers bigger and more obvious, the core problem is identical. You are being asked what the odds are that you randomly chose a specific box, given that you pulled a gold ball out of that box.

Whats the answer to my question by the way?

Anonymous Wed Jul 6 01:00:09 2016 No.8186631

>>8186603
>It's not asking for the odds from three boxes anymore.
It's always been from three boxes. That is the context of the question, which it clearly refers to. Why would you ignore what the question refers to?

>Essentially, once you've removed a gold ball from one box, the third is eliminated.
So you ARE taking into account what happened before the question. Hypocrite.

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 01:01:10 2016 No.8186632 >>8186606 Don't misinterpret the problem, or my paraphrase.

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 01:01:53 2016 No.8186633 Just number the balls. Then magically, it isn't possible to achieve the 50/50 answer.

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 01:02:32 2016 No.8186635 >>8186617 The question is phrased fine. You are not interpreting the question literally, you are ignoring most of the sentence.

Anonymous Wed Jul 6 01:03:20 2016 No.8186637

>>8186627
You know that the ball in your hand is gold.
You know that if you took the ball from the gold/gold box, the next one will be gold.
If you took it from the gold/silver box, the next one will be silver.
The silver/silver box is no longer a factor.
The second ball from a box that contained one already will be equally gold or silver.

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 01:04:49 2016 No.8186639 >>8186630 The questions are all posted anonymously. What was your question?

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 01:05:28 2016 No.8186641 >>8186389 1/3

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 01:06:05 2016 No.8186643 >>8186632 Your paraphrase is a misquote. You'd make a shitty lawyer.

Anonymous Wed Jul 6 01:06:36 2016 No.8186644

>>8186637
>The second ball from a box that contained one already will be equally gold or silver.
Actually no, its more likely to have come from the GG box than the GS and thus the second ball is more likely to be gold. Rig this up at home and test it. Get 2 boxes, put the balls in, pick a random box. If you reach in and pull out a gold ball, count the number of times the next ball is gold, it will be twice as many times as it is silver

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 01:07:23 2016 No.8186645 >>8186631 See >>8186637

Anonymous Wed Jul 6 01:07:37 2016 No.8186646

>>8186639
>There are 3 boxes. The first box contains a thousand gold balls. The second contains 999 silver balls and 1 gold ball. The third box contains a thousand silver balls. You randomly pick a box, reach in and pull out a gold ball. What are the odds that you are holding the first box?

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 01:10:24 2016 No.8186651 >>8186646 I understand your point, but in your example, the chances of having the first box are a thousand times more likely. It's not the same.

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 01:11:40 2016 No.8186653 File: 41 KB, 486x491, diff.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 01:11:54 2016 No.8186655 >>8186644 I don't have enough balls

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 01:11:55 2016 No.8186656 >>8186651 >chances of having the first box are a thousand times more likely. Exactly. And for exactly the same reason that in OP's question you are twice as likely to have the first box

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 01:12:55 2016 No.8186658 >>8186655 4 squares of paper with scribbles on 3 of them will work

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 01:13:21 2016 No.8186661 >>8186653 Well, there's still clearly a chance to get either gold or silver the second time around the first way.

Anonymous Wed Jul 6 01:13:26 2016 No.8186662

>>8186637
>You know that if you took the ball from the gold/gold box, the next one will be gold.
The first ball you took could be ether ball from the gold/gold box. the same can't be said for the gold/silver box. so you have three applicable cases: gold ball#1 from the gold/gold gold ball#2 from the gold/gold or gold ball from the gold/silver. Two cases are from the gold/gold box.
>The silver/silver box is no longer a factor.
true

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 01:15:00 2016 No.8186665 >>8186656 Actually, once you have a gold ball in your hand already, the chances are 50/50 for the next one.

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 01:15:13 2016 No.8186666 >>8186662 I meant to delete that first line of green text

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 01:16:49 2016 No.8186668 >>8186661 Using the 50% logic, switching a gold for a silver would make no difference in the outcome.

Anonymous Wed Jul 6 01:18:02 2016 No.8186673

It's more likely to pull a gold ball from the both gold box than it is to pull one from the mixed box. If you pull a ball randomly from a box and the ball you see in your hand is gold, it's more likely that you picked from the gold box than the mixed one. 2/3 odds to be exact.

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 01:18:36 2016 No.8186675 >>8186665 No its not, for the same reason thats its not 50/50 when there are 1000 gold balls or 999 silver and 1 gold

Anonymous Wed Jul 6 01:19:11 2016 No.8186676

>>8186662
I do understand what you're saying, and looking at the problem as a whole, the odds factor differently. Essentially, once you have one gold ball in your hand already, and can only choose from the same box, there are only two equally likely possible outcomes.

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 01:20:19 2016 No.8186682 >>8186668 Except that you couldn't possibly get a gold/gold combination that way.

Anonymous Wed Jul 6 01:20:29 2016 No.8186683

There are six possibilities of what you might pick. Either gold and then gold, silver and then silver, gold and then silver, silver and then gold, gold and then gold, silver and then silver.

Therefore, if you remove all the irrelevant possibilities, you'll be left with: gold and then gold, gold and then silver, gold and then gold.

Out of three gold balls there are only 2 gold balls following them. Therefore, the answer is 2/3.

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 01:20:36 2016 No.8186685 Quantum mechanics says it's not possible for gold balls to exist.

Anonymous Wed Jul 6 01:21:33 2016 No.8186688

>>8186676
> Essentially, once you have one gold ball in your hand already, and can only choose from the same box, there are only two equally likely possible outcomes.
I get why you think this, but it is fundamentally untrue. Because you can only choose from the same box, asking what ball you pick next is the same as asking what box you chose right at the start of the question. And the fact that you know there was at least 1 gold ball in the box you chose makes it more likely that you originally chose the GG box than the GS box

Anonymous Wed Jul 6 01:23:52 2016 No.8186692

>>8186675
I see what you're saying, but it's not asking for the odds of the overall outcome; it's asking for the odds of the second ball being gold, considering that you
a) have one gold ball already
and
b) have to pick from the same box, knowing that the only two choices left are gold and silver, and it has to be one or the other.

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 01:24:20 2016 No.8186693 100% + 0% + 0% divided by 3 is 1/3

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 01:25:06 2016 No.8186696 >>8186683 No, there are two. The question is about the second choice only, all other information considered.

Anonymous Wed Jul 6 01:25:27 2016 No.8186697

Put into the box an acid spray, which has a 50/50 chance of dissolving the second ball over the next hour. Now you have both gold and silver left in the box and the statistics are 3/0, so you have an infinity chance. Punch the nearest person in the face and leave with your boxes.

Anonymous Wed Jul 6 01:25:56 2016 No.8186698

>>8186692
>b) have to pick from the same box, knowing that the only two choices left are gold and silver, and it has to be one or the other.
And this is where you are getting confused, because while it is true that it has to be one or the other THE OPTIONS ARE NOT EQUALLY LIKELY

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 01:26:57 2016 No.8186701 >>8186696 >No, there are two Correct, and one of the two possibilites is correct 2/3 of the time, all other information considered

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 01:27:57 2016 No.8186704 >>8186698 With one ball removed, they are. Sorry, I'm not going by the 1000-ball version; too confusing.

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 01:29:56 2016 No.8186708 >>8186704 With one ball removed, the odds of the second ball being gold are 2/3. Just like with the thousand balls, with one ball removed, the odds of the second ball being gold are 999/1000

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 01:30:26 2016 No.8186710 The third box is irrelevant because you chose a gold ball and have to choose that same box so 1/2

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 01:31:05 2016 No.8186711 >>8186708 >999/1000 Should be 1000/1001 sorry

Anonymous Wed Jul 6 01:32:57 2016 No.8186716

I don't know how many people I'm currently arguing with, but I'm not arguing the math, but the language in which it's presented. I can't think of a good analogy. You're all right thinking the way you are if you infer that the question was asked properly. It wasn't, so I'm right in thinking the way I am. Being math people, you're concentrating on a known equation. I'm answering the question as it was asked.

It's been an honor infuriating you. Have a good one. I'm tired.

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 01:34:47 2016 No.8186721 >>8186716 You cant blame us for your poor reading comprehension mate

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 01:36:01 2016 No.8186726 >>8186721 nor can I blame you for your autism.

Anonymous Wed Jul 6 01:36:56 2016 No.8186731

>>8186710
All that matters is whether you're in the gold/gold box or the gold/silver box since that dictates whether the next ball will be gold 100% of the time or gold 0% of the time. And that gold ball you initially picked has a higher likely hood of coming from the gold/gold box than the gold/silver box.

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 01:37:07 2016 No.8186732 >>8186726 Dont worry, its established that something like 90% of people get this wrong. You'll figure out your mistake eventually. Or not, whatever

Anonymous Wed Jul 6 01:46:26 2016 No.8186747

eeeeuuughhk .. can someone tell me if there is someone is running a program on /sci/ that just reposts the same shit sporadically. Is a flat earth post due sometime tonight?

2/3 by the way. if you don't get it, just find this problem anywhere else on line besides here

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 01:46:47 2016 No.8186748 File: 160 KB, 700x1000, gold and silver balls.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] The probability is 2/3 assuming that you do not put the ball back in the box once your pull it out

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 01:47:55 2016 No.8186751 >>8186716 >I'm right in thinking the way I am. At least consider the possibility that you might be wrong.

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 01:51:23 2016 No.8186754 >>8186751 He ran away so he didnt have to deal with the cognitive dissonance any more

Anonymous Wed Jul 6 02:11:26 2016 No.8186777

>>8186389
if I picked goldball 1 the next one will be gold
if I picked goldball 2 the next one will be gold
if I picked goldball 3 the next one will be silver

2/3

is this that meme where sci asks easy question then pretends they are deep difficult questions

Anonymous Wed Jul 6 04:19:15 2016 No.8186894

>>8186611
the silver silver box is eliminated in the question

>you pick a box at random and a ball at ranom and IT IS GOLD
if silver silver was still a possibility you couldn't get to the next part

following that
the possibilities are box 1 or box 2, given that you picked between the two boxes at random, you have a 50/50 chance for each box

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 04:30:14 2016 No.8186905 >>8186748 This man convinced me. 2/3 it is.

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 04:37:11 2016 No.8186920 File: 468 KB, 1184x1046, tmp_4215-14675459503021320103294.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >it's a /sci/ thinks past events have any effect on current probabilities episode

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 04:59:35 2016 No.8186954 >>8186473 Are you sure the croak came from one of the frogs behind you? If so go for the single frog. If there might be a hidden frog that you didn't see behind you, then lick those double frogs.

Anonymous Wed Jul 6 05:22:04 2016 No.8186975
File: 38 KB, 411x438, 12345.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]

>>8186389
Here's my thinking process step by step:
>We have 3 boxes
>2x gold balls // 1x gold 1x silver ball // 2x silver balls
>So there is 3 gold balls and 3 silver balls in total
>Pick a box at random and pull out 1 ball, its a gold ball
>Because it was a gold ball that we pulled out , this now eliminates 1box which contains 2x silver balls, so its like we have only 2 boxes in total.
>we have one box with 2x gold balls and one box with 1x gold and 1x silver ball
>since we pulled out a gold ball, we are left with 3x balls in total, 2x gold balls and 1x silver ball
>so the chances of us getting another gold bar are 66.666...% - or - 2/3
I'm pretty sure I did that right.

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 05:23:01 2016 No.8186976 >it's anothee deliberately ambiguously worded problem thread >>>/b/

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 05:27:37 2016 No.8186981 >>8186748 >this and >>8186975 >this

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 05:28:45 2016 No.8186983 >>8186389 I'll use the gold to trade and use the silver to make a mirror to look at my 10/10 face and body.

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 05:36:38 2016 No.8186992 >>8186455 no... if you want to do it using percentage then it is 66.666% that you will get a gold ball, not 50.000%

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 05:41:15 2016 No.8186999 >>8186983 >rates himself 10/10 seems legit

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 06:43:04 2016 No.8187071 >>8186976 Its not ambiguous at all, if you arent getting it its because your reading comprehension is terrible

Anonymous Wed Jul 6 07:50:39 2016 No.8187122

>>8186389
Dear everyone who is answering 50/50:
I know it seems this way. It is natural to believe this vehemently. But this is the three prisoners problem.

My attempt at explaining the "paradox" is this: while it seems that the first choice is now out of your hands and you are down to two possible situations you could be in, in reality you must consider all of the possible "timelines" that could have lead to the situation you are in and so the first choice DOES matter.

If the wiki article on the three prisoners problem isn't enough, it's time for you to get meme'd on with some VSAUCE MICHAEL HERE, starting at 2:33:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Oc9tKkH7WE

>>	Great Imam of 4chan Wed Jul 6 07:52:39 2016 No.8187123 File: 181 KB, 490x427, image_16.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] Autism : the thread You draw a gold ball 1st, so you either drew from the 1st/2nd box So : P (gold ball 2nd draw) = 1/2 (1+0) = 0.5

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 07:59:26 2016 No.8187134 >>8187123 Brainlets: the thread. The three prisoner problem is fucking easy. Someone even wrote a fucking python script to demonstrate the solution in this exact thread. And yet you still can't wrap your head around it.

>>	Great Imam of 4chan Wed Jul 6 08:05:33 2016 No.8187144 >>8187134 >Muh paradox Fuck off faggot

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 08:07:31 2016 No.8187147 >>8187144 >didn't say paradox Fuck off brainlet child.

>>	Great Imam of 4chan Wed Jul 6 08:08:42 2016 No.8187148 >>8187122 >Paradox It's not a paradox when the answer is clear and simple

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 08:11:11 2016 No.8187151 >>8187148 Write some code you fucking mong. Also, what are scare quotes.

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 08:18:48 2016 No.8187159 File: 42 KB, 800x587, 1460898426337.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >what is "conditional event" Anyone who denies 50/50 is low iq popsci fag that need to be executed

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 08:22:57 2016 No.8187161 >>8187159 See >>8186439, statistics it yourself or fuck off idiot.

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 08:23:06 2016 No.8187162 >>8186894 >>8186920 >>8187123 >>8187159 read: >>8186644

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 08:28:48 2016 No.8187170 1/3, prove me wrong

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 09:37:36 2016 No.8187220 >>8186389 3/6

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 09:38:39 2016 No.8187224 >>8186389 50/50 you pick a Goldball or not

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 10:00:46 2016 No.8187249 >>8186581 nice bait

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 10:06:54 2016 No.8187257 File: 10 KB, 929x348, 2_3.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>8186389

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 10:23:54 2016 No.8187279 There are literally 25 replies to me and I'm not even trying Stop being autistic and stop replying to bait protip: if it makes you feel smart, it's probably bait. you are not special

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 10:26:24 2016 No.8187282 >>8186389 3:2 in favor for NOT being a gold ball.

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 10:32:18 2016 No.8187285 Isn't this just a variant of the Monty Hall Problem?

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 11:09:32 2016 No.8187309 >>8187249 see >>8186605

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 11:24:52 2016 No.8187320 File: 14 KB, 728x441, bertrandBox.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] 2/3

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 11:29:25 2016 No.8187325 >>8187279 >im only pretending to be retarded haha look at how funny i am i will never get this

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 11:35:04 2016 No.8187331 File: 8 KB, 480x314, attention.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>8187279

>>	Anonymous Wed Jul 6 11:36:15 2016 No.8187332 File: 19 KB, 1183x267, gold and silver balls.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] since you goatfuckers are even worse at coding than i am

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/sci/ - Science & Math