filters and society

[Anonymous No.7675157]

Is the great filter real? If so what kind of filters have we already passed?

What other kinds of filters do we still need to overcome? How would we overcome those filters? Global peace? Elimination of the weak?

Is the grouping of Type 1/2/3 civilizations useful to describe societies?

[Anonymous No.7675162]

>>7675157
nobody knows faggot now stop shitposting.

[Anonymous No.7675167]

>>7675157

Greetings, Earthlings. I am from a type 6 civilization. I created this very universe where you OP, are the biggest faggot in it.

[Anonymous No.7675277]

fuck you guys

[Anonymous No.7675289]

Death to capitalism and genetic manipulation.

[Anonymous No.7675294]

>>7675289
Penne.

[Anonymous No.7675832]

Niggers

[Anonymous No.7675852]

>>7675157
>How would we overcome those filters?
spread humans to as many planets/moons/asteroids possible. We could build a moon base with current tech although the logistics and cost aren't ideal

[Anonymous No.7675858]

>>7675157

>What other kinds of filters do we still need to overcome?

our massively flawed education and health care systems obviously

how do we overcome it?
lol fuck if I know

[Anonymous No.7675885]

>>7675157
>no labeled y-axis
>no species going backwards
What a shit graph.

[Anonymous No.7675933]

>>7675157
Resource depletion
At least one super successful organism in the history of earth killed itself in the same way
Human civilization isn't replacing fossil fuels and fossil fuel infrastructure fast enough (or at all) to survive the depletion of fossil fuels (which in actuality isn't true depletion, but instead when extracting the stuff costs the same amount of energy as is usable in the stuff you extracted)
Once fossil fuels are depleted it will be very difficult to build the infrastructure for sustainable energy sources because we won't have the equipment nor the numbers to do it.
Or maybe we will and it will all be hunky dory and we will all get a mandated catgirl uberslut to fuck all day long?

[Anonymous No.7675957]

>>7675885
What would you even call the y-axis that wouldn't be esoteric and distracting from the main idea?

[Anonymous No.7675970]

The greatest filter is existing in the first place
The best news we can get about the search for life on mars and elsewhere is that there is no news.

[Anonymous No.7675986]

>>7675157
>what kind of filters
1) der jude
2) the ego

[Anonymous No.7675998]

Elimination of religion.

[Anonymous No.7676121]

>>7675957
The location of the planet the life evolved on, in degrees from earth (origin is at the centre of the universe, objz).

[Anonymous No.7676143]

>species advancement
You just went full retard. Never go full retard.

[Anonymous No.7676161]

>>7676121
This post gave me heartburn

Why would it even matter to have that information? how would one even get that information?

[Anonymous No.7676181]

Speculation on hypothetical civilizations is nothing but pseudoscience.

[Anonymous No.7676185]

>>7676181
you are retarded if you think thats what this is

[Anonymous No.7676187]

>>7676185
That's exactly what this is.

[Anonymous No.7676198]

The biggest one is cheap, clean, and efficient energy by far. Most conflicts arise from this. The only problem is that its exploitation would have to be prevented somehow, and since some humans are greedy shits, it's gonna be real hard even if the solution is found.

[Anonymous No.7676199]

>>7676187
you are retarded if you think thats what this is

[Anonymous No.7676241]

>>7675157

In your graph there are 2 green lines more advanced than the orange line indicating, what I can only assume is human accomplishments.

My question is; what are the 2 species that are more advanced than us?

Octopus and dolphin maybe?
Insects? Kanye West?

[Anonymous No.7676243]

>>7676241
Those green lines represent alien civilizations you dumbfuck.

[Anonymous No.7676245]

>>7676243

But we don't have that information. That is an opinion...


... You dumbfuck.

[Anonymous No.7676249]

>>7676245
These are basic ideas behind things like Fermi Paradox and observation selection effect. Try educating yourself for a change.

[SiliconDoc No.7676251]

>>7675933
>but instead when extracting the stuff costs the same amount of energy as is usable in the stuff you extracted

you are so fucking stupid please never try to speak of any science ever again

[Anonymous No.7676255]

>>7676249
"The great filter (behind us)"

What makes you even think this is anywhere close to true?

[Anonymous No.7676265]

>>7676255
These are just scenarios.

[Anonymous No.7676266]

>>7676255
i didnt make the image you dumbass

http://gizmodo.com/the-fermi-paradox-where-the-hell-are-the-other-earths-1580345495

[Anonymous No.7676267]

>>7676161
>Why would it even matter to have that information?
It wouldn't really, but it's better than having nothing be there right? Why have a chart if one of the axes doesn't have anything on it?

[Anonymous No.7676273]

Why all these other civilisations, we could easily be the only one on the chart as somebody has to be first

[Anonymous No.7676279]

>>7676273
>galaxy of 400 billion stars
>we could easily be the only one on the chart

[Anonymous No.7676290]

>>7676279

Yes we could be, I'm not saying that would always be the case but there needs to be a first but any number of occurrences could've happened that would've resulted in no technologically advanced species on earth, is multicellular life a given? Evolution? It's foolish to assume that intelligent life is inevitable especially given the age of the universe.

[Anonymous No.7676298]

>>7676267
No dumbass, it's basically a one dimensional graph, the y axis doesnt exist

[Anonymous No.7676303]

>>7676290
>galaxy of 400 billion stars
>at least one hundred billion galaxies in the observable universe
>over 9 billion years went by before our star system even formed
>lol guys we could be the first!!!1

[Anonymous No.7676307]

>>7675157
>waitbutwhy
Feel free to join lesswrong if you want yet another source of rehashed and paraphrased drivel.

[Anonymous No.7676324]

>>7675157
>Is the great filter real?
It's an effort to solve a non-mystery by assuming we're so important because we live in the most utterly critical period of history ever.

The Fermi Paradox isn't really a mystery.
The "great silence" is caused by the inverse-square law.
If ET has visited us a million times since the earth began, that's a visit every 4600 years, or once (maybe twice) in all of recorded history.
"Muh Von Neumann Probes": if anyone were foolish enough to build them, they'd certainly make them stealthy because of the perceived threat they pose.
And lastly, colonization. If species are very numerous, they has to exist in a very diverse group of environments, making it unlikely our neighbors could/would live here.
If only an Earth-like environment will do, there aren't going to be very many star-faring species out there.

If there's no FTL, we're unlikely to get visitors.
If there IS FTL, our part of the galaxy probably belongs to someone who are keeping out trespassers.
Overall, it's not a big surprise we haven't met any aliens.

[Anonymous No.7676336]

>>7676303

You think life was even possible in the early universe? We needed more complex elements to form after the original stars created in the big bang died out.

[Anonymous No.7676338]

>>7676279
>>galaxy of 400 billion stars
It's 100 billion, and 99.7% are unsuitable for "hosting complex life".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galactic_habitable_zone#Criticism

Only a tiny fraction of these have "Goldilocks planets".
It's likely a Goldilocks planet still also needs a moon like ours to keep the core spinning and produce a strong magnetosphere.
We really don't know how likely abiogenesis is.
We really don't know how many pitfalls lie between abiogenesis and Cambrian explosion.
We don't know how unlikely tool-bearing intelligence is.
We've apparently developed faster than 92% of the other potentially habitable planets.
And even without the "great filter", nothing lasts forever.
If a civilization like ours lasts for millions of years, while life itself goes on for billions, at any random point in Earth's history there's 99.9% chance we aren't going to be here.

[Anonymous No.7676343]

>>7676324
>A post that makes sense and isn't just a copy paste from a meme blog on /sci/

This truly is the end of times.

Also: colonization makes no sense, you can't import resources from another solar system in a sensible manner and the amount of resources, energy and space that's available in a single system is staggeringly huge, if you need more you're doing something wrong.

>"Muh Von Neumann Probes": if anyone were foolish enough to build them, they'd certainly make them stealthy because of the perceived threat they pose.

This. If you just make them litter the galaxy you've donate ultra advanced tech to every single other species out there.
If you give them guns to defend themself you just planted the seed of a galactic tyranny and if anyone more or equally advanced stumbled upon your self-replicating killer machines then you could easily have a galactic war on your hands.
If you make them tiny and stealthy then it's apparent why we don't see the, but at that point it's a galactic spy network and not a galactic colony effort.

[Anonymous No.7676344]

>>7676338
>Don't worry guys, I read a Wikipedia article about this!

[Anonymous No.7676349]

>>7676344

Your argument is basically "it's a fact because I want it to be" but your statistics are based on nothing but personal feelings

[Anonymous No.7676357]

>>7675157
Cold war.
We already passed it recently although the threat still looms.

It's strange that no one really talks about how it came down to nearly a god damned coin flip whether everything would be annihilated or not.

[Anonymous No.7676358]

>>7676357
We have enough humans now to survive a nuclear war. Humans would just have to try again. The only way for us to go extinct is if we all get annihilated at once.

[Anonymous No.7676360]

>>7676338
Your wiki link leads to a paragraph that suggests a galactic habitable zone doesn't exist, that everywhere can be equally habitable in the galaxy.

Also
>It's 100 billion, and 99.7% are unsuitable for "hosting complex life".
That leaves 300 000 000 suitable candidates. I don't see where you get that number from though, given our exoplanet hunting efforts shows that multiple planets are a rule and not an irregularity and we've barely scratched the surface.

>"Goldilocks planets".
Do you seriously believe that a planet needs to be a carbon copy of earth to host life?

>And even without the "great filter", nothing lasts forever.
Are you here to write poetry or make an argument?

>If a civilization like ours lasts for millions of years, while life itself goes on for billions, at any random point in Earth's history there's 99.9% chance we aren't going to be here.
Or civilizations lasts forever once they pass a certain point but it's much more interesting to reside in a VR-verse and play games forever than bother with some ridiculous colony efforts of constructing giant beacons. People love escapism and slacking and as soon as it's possible to secede from reality into a infinite funland that's precisely what most people will do.

[Anonymous No.7676361]

>>7676357
The 60's called they want their paranoia back.

We're past the threat of nuclear winter.

[Anonymous No.7676362]

>>7676361
>threat of nuclear winter.
Was always based on false reasoning. It assumed a Hiroshima-like amount of wood to be ignited per hiroshima-equivalent explosive yield. Most cities however use a lot more glass, concrete and steel so the possibility of enough firestorms to start nuclear winter is very low, even more so today because fewer nukes would be used in an exchange.

[Anonymous No.7676363]

>>7676338
>It's 100 billion
So you actually counted them? Impressive. But it would be great if you knew something about this beyond that one national geographic documentary you saw 15 years ago.

Meanwhile i'll take
200–400 billion stars (3×1011 ±1×1011)
as a more reasonable estimation.

[Anonymous No.7676366]

>>7676362
You're grasping at straws. I just used the term figuratively. Who gives a shit what the climate would be like following a global nuclear war.

[Anonymous No.7676367]

>>7676366
>Who gives a shit what the climate would be like following a global nuclear war.
Everyone that survives it?

[Anonymous No.7676368]

>>7676366
I'd imagine all the people who survived would care.

[Anonymous No.7676375]

>>7676367
>>7676368

[Anonymous No.7676386]

>>7676360
>our exoplanet hunting efforts shows that multiple planets are a rule and not an irregularity
>you seriously believe that a planet needs to be a carbon copy of earth to host life?
We've discovered thousands of exoplanets in hundreds of star systems, but even the most optimistic list of "potentially habitable exoplanets" has only 48 candidates:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_potentially_habitable_exoplanets
and only 11 of those are more "Earth similar" than Venus.
The University of Puerto Rico (the Arecibo people) lists just 31, 9 of which are unconfirmed.
http://phl.upr.edu/projects/habitable-exoplanets-catalog

And I personally hope of life in the water oceans (and liquid methane oceans) of the gas giants, maybe even the atmospheres of the gas giants themselves.
But I wouldn't expect these to build spaceships.
Our path can't be to only way, but without fire, how will you harness metallurgy, ceramics, glass, etc?
Look at cephalopods.
Smartest invertebrates on Earth.
They've got "hands", society, and eyes.
They've had 400 million years.
As near as we can tell, they've never even advanced to stone tools.

[Anonymous No.7676391]

>>7676363
>Meanwhile i'll take
>200–400 billion stars (3×1011 ±1×1011)
>as a more reasonable estimation.

https://www.google.com/search?q=number+of+stars+in+the+galaxy

[Anonymous No.7676403]

When did /sci/ become /x/ with all these people convinced that aliens are among us

[Anonymous No.7676405]

>>7676391
You are literally the definition of a plebeian. If you knew anything about science and were able to think critically you'd realize the stellar mass of the milky way could be a trillion stars.
The figure of 100 billion is an underestimate by a factor of 2 to 5 times in mass alone, since many stars have half or less the mass of the sun, and we don't know what percentage of the galaxy is made of these low mass stars.
For years textbooks have varied around 100-400 billion.

[Anonymous No.7676447]

>>7676386
>We've discovered thousands of exoplanets in hundreds of star systems

1953 confirmed in total according to wikipedia. But the detection methods are heavily biased towards detecting gas giants or BBQed planets in really fast and close orbit. Concluding earths are super rare based on this is like concluding my toilet bowl is sterile because you don't have a microscope to analyze the swabs from it.

The grouping bias is rather apparent if you play around with the list sorting a bit.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_exoplanets

[Anonymous No.7676464]

Inb4 the great filter is just civilizations dying out due to a lack of genetic diversity before they get to meet each other, meaning that there's tons of life in the galaxy/universe, but it's relatively short lived, so only 1 or so is "active" at the same time.

This would be your classical "great filter ahead of us" scenario btw.

[Anonymous No.7676465]

>>7676405
>For years textbooks have varied around 100-400 billion.
So it certainly could easily be 100 billion.
Thus making this post less plausible:
>>7676279
Thank you for your support.

[Anonymous No.7676466]

>>7676386
>Our path can't be to only way, but without fire, how will you harness metallurgy, ceramics, glass, etc?

Exothermic chemistry still exists in a cryobiological environment. And arguably you'd need some oxygen analogue to allow accelerated metabolisms or you'd never see intelligence arise. But even so everything would be very much different. Glass? heat water and refreeze it. If methane-muscles work slower you could probably use it as a structural material like wood too as no one can punch it hard enough to shatter it.

Want to bet on finding intelligent life though instead of speculating? Look for things like us in environments like ours.

[Anonymous No.7676468]

>>7676464

Nice try Schlomo

[Anonymous No.7676471]

>>7676464
>lack of genetic diversity
>in the era or gene therapy

Hah.

[Anonymous No.7676473]

>>7676447
Sure, but that still leaves the possibility that your toilet bowl is clean, even if we can't verify it.

If we were trying to explain all the different hordes of aliens invading the Earth every few years, "many Earths we can't see" would help explain things.

But we're trying to explain the *lack* of visitors.
If you need a lowball estimate of star-faring races, Earth being an odd rarity is a more plausible explanation.

[Anonymous No.7676483]

>>7676251
He's right you faggot, when energy cost of fossil fuel extraction is higher than the energy we can get out of the fuel it's pretty pointless to do it. You might as well synthesise it from scratch.

Why the fuck don't we have more nuclear power? I was promised energy too cheap to fucking meter fifty years ago.

[Anonymous No.7676484]

>>7676483

It will never be cheap to the public even if it we had an unlimited supply of free energy

[Anonymous No.7676486]

>>7676473
>we're trying to explain the *lack* of visitors.

Distance and the lightspeed limit are really good explanations in my book. By the time you can toy with biology enough to make a journey like that survivable you can likely toy with biology enough to make accelerate thinking and make really really good drugs.

>But unmanned probes?
Sure, but they'd be decked up with stealth systems and the AI would be set to lurk-mode as you wouldn't want the natives to blow your drones up after spending all that time and money on the fucking journey. And you certainly wouldn't want to accidentally hand them interstellar travel in case they are Orks.

But in the case of our contemporary tech they'd not even need that as we have really insignificant detection abilities outside of near-earth space.

For radio chatter and other signal leaks it's as simple that intensity dropoff over lightyears of distance means that unless someone is either very close or hellbent on being heard their signals will fade into pretty much nothing as far as most of our instruments are concerned.

[Anonymous No.7676493]

>>7676473
>If you need a lowball estimate of star-faring races, Earth being an odd rarity is a more plausible explanation.

Star-faring being extremely complicated for no particular return of investment is a pretty good candidate too. And even if it isn't space is still so fucking huge compared to our shitty sensor tech that a tourist craft could regularly fly by twice a week since 2000BC and we'd still miss it.

[Anonymous No.7676497]

>>7676251
God I fucking hate namefags

[Anonymous No.7676519]

I think the next big filter are bioweapons/bioterrorism. Rewriting DNA is going to be as easy and cheap as writing on paper.

Sooner or later someone will create the ultimate disease that will anihilate humankind.

[Anonymous No.7676670]

>>7676519
This, look how many people today want to kill other people. All it takes is one bioengineering disease or virus to literally sterilize the planet of humans.

[Anonymous No.7676724]

>>7676251
shut the fuck up stupid namefagging cunt

[Anonymous No.7676737]

>>7676724
He's right though.

[Anonymous No.7676746]

>>7675157
Get all of humanity on the same page. That is, get everyone focused on what is best for the species overall, not just what is best for themselves, their social group, their nation, etc.

[Anonymous No.7676749]

>>7675998
Take your fedora and gtfo plz

[Anonymous No.7676754]

>>7676251
>you are so fucking stupid please never try to speak of any science ever again

Follow your own advice, retard.

[Anonymous No.7676762]

>>7676336
You think you know every possible form life can take because you know some of the forms it can take on the dust mote you were born on and will never leave?

[Anonymous No.7676767]

I have discovered a truly marvellous proof that the great filter is real, which this post is too small to contain.

[Anonymous No.7676770]

>>7676336
You think you know every possible form life can take because you know some of the forms it takes on our little speck of dust?

[Anonymous No.7676772]

>>7676338
When did you invent a telescope powerful enough to catalog every star and every planet in the universe?

[Anonymous No.7676781]

>>7676362
Yeah, there would be fewer nukes now than there would have been during the cold war, but there are still enough nuclear warheads in the world's arsenals to sterilize the face of the planet.

[Anonymous No.7676792]

>>7676767

then pastebin it you dumbfuck

inb4 bait desu desu

[Anonymous No.7676797]

>>7676767
>this post
>those digits

But are we past the filter???

[Anonymous No.7676989]

>>7676767
nice digits