/sci/ - Science & Math

[Anonymous No.7567703]

I have issues with understanding the logic of the concept of variance. So assuming I am playing roulette at the casino forever, the first day I run tremendously over variance and win and win and win. Supposedly during the next sessions I should experience a bad run of variance, as I am currently running over expected variance. But then I meet this guy who has lost money over the last days, much more than he is supposed to according to the math of the game, and I start just playing what he does. Imagine now I find such a person every single day and play what he is playing. When or how will variance balance out? Will be fucked as I am expected to lose or will I be lucky as he is expected to win. Now, I do know the fact that variance can equal out in infinity, but everybody ever gambled will tell you that it never needs more than a few days to balance out. Opinions?

[Anonymous No.7567759]

Gamblers fallacy. Your entire story is bollocks.

[Anonymous No.7567779]

>>7567703
UR A FUKEN STUPID CUNT m8

[Anonymous No.7567784]

>>7567703
>Supposedly during the next sessions I should experience a bad run of variance
No

[Anonymous No.7567802]

So if I flip a coin and it lands on heads 9 times, it should definitely land on tails the next flip?

[Anonymous No.7567813]

>>7567802
No

[Anonymous No.7567818]

>>7567703
That's not how it works. You would simply *eventually* lose enough for the variance to balance out - could be tomorrow, could be over the course of a billion years, doesn't matter.

The roulette wheel has no memory; it's just that if you keep playing long enough, enough winning and losing streaks will randomly pop up that they'll more or less balance out.

[Anonymous No.7567865]

That's genius OP. Come to my casino and test it out

[Anonymous No.7567867]

Variance is the spread of the probability, or how far apart each possible outcome is from each other.