/sci/ - Science & Math

[Anonymous No.7488580]

i have solved the fermi paradox.. there are simply many great filters:

>abiogenesis + ability/urge to reproduce (only happened once on earth)
>multicellularity
>intelligence
>language
>high dexterity
>natural curiosity ('what's out there, anyway?')
>avoidance of world-ending conflict

plus, i don't think animals are intended for universal travel. in 100 years or less, we will have created multidimensional/vastly intelligent AIs. humanity will NOT be conquering the universe..rather, assigning "slaves" to do it for us.

this is almost certainly the correct answer. we are a "lucky" species.

[Anonymous No.7488583]

>>7488580
I think you're onto something...

[Anonymous No.7488586]

>>7488580
'You' didn't. These were all so obvious that many people before you came up with them.

[Anonymous No.7488589]

>>7488586

not really. i've never seen the idea of 'multiple great filters' before

regardless, i don't care if i was first to vocalize. i've found satisfaction in this conclusion and i can finally move on with my live.

[Anonymous No.7488590]

>>7488589
Somebody's never heard of the Drake equation.

[Anonymous No.7488594]

>>7488590

the drake equation isn't very robust. it's missing crucial filters.

[Anonymous No.7488599]

>>7488580
wow!
its fucking nothing!

great job asshat

[Anonymous No.7488600]

>>7488594
It's weak because many of its factors are speculative and could go either way. You've got your own version, sure, but you haven't solved shit. What's your conclusion anyways, that we are the only intelligent life in the universe?

[Anonymous No.7488604]

>>7488600

my conclusion is that intelligent life is very very very rare. incomprehensibly rare. I'd say we're the only intelligent life in the galaxy, at least.

>>7488599

why's that kiddo

[Anonymous No.7488605]

>>7488580
>in 100 years or less, we will ...
Stopped reading. Pic related is you.

[Anonymous No.7488607]

>>7488605

nigga i'll be dead by the end of the year. literally. longevity isn't on the cards for me at all. 100 years or less is realistic

[Anonymous No.7488608]

>>7488605
I'm interested to see how far we will have come in 100 years... Whether or not I'll be alive is another matter.

[Anonymous No.7488609]

Here are the things which sounds best to me personally, based upon a data set of 1. I have now solved this conundrum.

[Anonymous No.7488611]

>>7488604
>my conclusion is that intelligent life is very very very rare

Seriously groundbreaking stuff here...you should be up for the nobel prize

>I'd say we're the only intelligent life in the galaxy

Again this is truly groundbreaking. Some maybe ~200 Billion stars in the galaxy with a diameter of 120,000 light years and an autist on 4chan assumes we are the only intelligent life.

[Anonymous No.7488612]

>>7488604
I'm also of the opinion that intelligent life is incredibly rare. Rare enough that there may be few civilizations in our own galaxy or even none at all. What makes you think you have solved anything or even thought up anything new?

[Anonymous No.7488617]

>>7488609

yes, pretty much. we won't have proper data sets for thousands of years, all we can do is speculate

i can sleep at night now knowing that my speculation (at least) sounds accurate. it sounds correct. and it'll probably wind up being true in the long run

>>7488611

ok sir, what's your explanation then?

>>7488612

i haven't seen my ideas vocalized before. at least not to this degree.

[Anonymous No.7488621]

We encountered the first Great Filter in 1945 and so far we are passing.

[Anonymous No.7488624]

>>7488621

no. there are multiple great filters. see my original post.

[Anonymous No.7488625]

>>7488617
Thank goodness that whatever sounds intuitively correct is the right answer. Keeps things simple.

[Anonymous No.7488627]

>>7488625

i know we're on a science board but you've gotta be pretty autistic to care beyond that point

we're discussing topics that will likely never be truly solved for thousands of years. why not make assumptions?

and i said "almost certainly". it's *probably* the right answer and I think you agree.

[Anonymous No.7488629]

OP how can you assume a hypothetical planet 40,000 light years away isn't exactly like Earth? Complete with a bipedal mammalian species similar to Humans. Theres no way you can prove or disprove that.

To say there is no intelligent life at all in the galaxy aside from Humans is so arrogant and ridiculous I can't even.

[Anonymous No.7488631]

>>7488624
That's why I said the first. I don't expect the second to come for decades, with the first genetically engineered pathogen.

[Anonymous No.7488633]

>>7488627
Shrug. I don't care enough to get mad, but I also don't see an argument here other than "this sounds good to me so it's probably right". I don't even know that there's a coherent argument to be made on the topic. Your reasoning sounds great in your own head. Good for you. Maybe you're even right.

[Anonymous No.7488636]

>>7488627
>>7488633

i'm pretty sure you're persecuting me out of resentment for my ego rather than my ideas

if i'd said "this might be true, might not, it's just a cute lil idea" we'd likely be in agreement right now

>>7488629

there's no way i can disprove that, but the existence of such a planet would imply the existence of countless others. and then i'd wonder why the fuck they haven't shown up yet

[Anonymous No.7488637]

>>7488617
>i haven't seen my ideas vocalized before

You haven't looked hard enough. Or at all.

It's obvious as fuck that our own existence took incredible circumstances with astronomically low chances of occurrence. Your speculations are basic shit, and pretty unimaginative on top of it - I mean, you're really only attempting to account for intelligent life that is very similar to our own. Like I said, you haven't solved shit.

[Anonymous No.7488639]

>>7488580
>abiogenesis + ability/urge to reproduce (only happened once on earth)

what makes you think there is anything special about this? from my understanding abiogenesis happened relatively quickly after the earth cooled down to allow for life.

[Anonymous No.7488640]

>>7488637

OK sir. show me the same ideas vocalized and i will admit defeat.

[Anonymous No.7488641]

>>7488640
seriously dude

[Anonymous No.7488643]

>>7488639

the ability to reproduce itself is more important. it was an entirely random mutation, not inherent. who knows how unlikely it was to occur

[Anonymous No.7488644]

>>7488640
I'm not doing your research for you, though I'm sure a simple google search is all it would take. Seriously man, I'm not even attacking your ideas necessarily (though I still think they are rather unimaginative), I'm just baffled that you think you are the first to have ever thought about this.

[Anonymous No.7488647]

>>7488636
>the existence of such a planet would imply the existence of countless others

Why. You even said yourself, "intelligent life is very very very rare" Maybe intelligent life only occurs on Earth-like planets. maybe you get one Earth like planet for every million worlds who knows.

>i'd wonder why the fuck they haven't shown up yet

You assume again that any technologically mature species would naturally want to expand out into the galaxy. Maybe they don't care. Maybe faster than light travel is impossible. Maybe they all died in a cataclysm or war. Even if they managed to travel to their neighboring star systems, from our point of view on Earth we have no observable evidence of any of it. Just like they are probably wondering where we are.

The galaxy could be full of intelligent civilizations, but they are so far apart and isolated that even in the 13.21 billion year history of the Milky Way, none of them have (or very few) run into each other. I think this notion that we should at least be able to see some proof that something is out there is misguided. You really wouldn't see anything at all unless you knew exactly where to look.

[Anonymous No.7488648]

>>7488641

multiple great filters have been considered but not vocalized to this extent. i've read those posts and none of them are very robust

>>7488644

i haven't had many original thoughts at all (if any), i'm just the first to vocalize this idea concisely. i know i'm on 4chan but i can't help but feel the potential for discussion is squandered by elitists like you

[Anonymous No.7488651]

>>7488648
I'm sorry to say but your post is not very robust

[Anonymous No.7488652]

>>7488651

well then, more robust than the others at least. that's all i can hope for anyway.

[Anonymous No.7488654]

>>7488648
>i know i'm on 4chan but i can't help but feel the potential for discussion is squandered by elitists like you

look whos talking. You have a proclivity for ad hominem, a giant ego, a misguided sense of self righteousness and arrogance beyond measure.

[Anonymous No.7488655]

>>7488639
>>7488643

Abiogenesis is a factor that we really can't make any hard assumptions on. We don't know for certain how it happens, plus we've never seen it happen, but that doesn't mean it's incredibly rare. It could just be a matter of the right chemistry and an incredible amount of time.


Reproduction may also be less rare than you think. Self replicating molecules predate life on earth - it could very well be an innate function of chemistry under certain conditions.

[Anonymous No.7488660]

>>7488652
The guy who came up with the concept of "The Great Filter" already came up with this

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter#The_Great_Filter

and acknowledges that any of these could be great filters, including more than one of them

[Anonymous No.7488662]

Dear journal, today I saw an OP get totally btfo

[Anonymous No.7488666]

>>7488654

everyone circles back to ad hominem eventually

i have no ego m8. i'm an ugly dumb sack of shti. i just like speculating and i know for a fact my ideas haven't been vocalized properly for shit. at least not on /sci/ anyway

>>7488660

shit nigga. i keep trying to tell you, i know i'm not the first to "come up" with this. i'm the first to vocalize it concisely. that is not concise and the ideas are not even close to identical.

>>7488662

nice blog, but yeah not really, my speculation is still just as valid as anyone else's. again, if i hadn't said "this is probably correct" there wouldn't have been a backlash at all

[Anonymous No.7488667]

>>7488666
That is concise, and the ideas are like

the same

tbh

[Anonymous No.7488668]

>>7488667
i like my version better kid

[Anonymous No.7488672]

>>7488648
>potential for discussion is squandered by elitists like you

Cry me a river, buddy. Maybe think about how you go about phrasing your discussion if you want to avoid people calling you out for your shit. I've also have been contributing to the discussion, both as to why I agree with you and also how you could be wrong, though you seem more preoccupied with defending your own little ego than actually contributing anything else remotely meaningful.

[Anonymous No.7488675]

>>7488672

nigga you're a sensitive little bithc. "boo hoo someone';s confident in their ideas". nigga eat my dick. if i had said "this is probably wrong but i'm gonna express it anyway" you'd be slobbering all over my dick.

[Anonymous No.7488680]

>>7488675
wow OP has finally been reduced back to his natural retarded autistic state.

[Anonymous No.7488683]

>>7488680

i said the same thing right here kiddo
>>7488636

[Anonymous No.7488686]

>>7488675
>nigga you're a sensitive little bithc
>nigga eat my dick
>you'd be slobbering all over my dick

[Anonymous No.7488691]

>>7488675
beautiful

[Anonymous No.7488693]

>>7488675
Guys I think I broke OP

[Anonymous No.7488694]

>>7488686
>>7488691
>>7488693

>ay, let's mindlessly persecute someone without rationale

take apart my niggery post and you'll recognize coherence. the guy's arguing against my ego, not my ideas. that's futile as fuck.

[Anonymous No.7488709]

>>7488580
The solution lies in distances. Even at speed of light it takes insane amount of years to reach another system.

Another point is a will to breed.
We all are witnesses of pattern of smart and wealth people tending to have one kid (but well educated and so on) or even none. Of course, it relates only to humans, but I suppose it could be a law of evolution: quantity becomes quality.

So. I assume some civilizations are out there, but they are incredibly far from us. So far that they are almost unreachable. And they don't spread beyond there system, or do it relatively slow to reach us naturally.

Also, developing a near-light-speed engine might be a problem too.

[Anonymous No.7488755]

I like to think that there are multiple species/offshoot of a single species in the non-'rural' parts of our galaxy where the distance between stars is less, and we're stuck all the way over here in bumfuck nowhere and we will never encounter biologically alien lifeforms.

[Anonymous No.7488757]

>>7488755
better picture

[Anonymous No.7488758]

>>7488580
>this is almost certainly the correct answer. we are a "lucky" species.
Well you got that one part right at least.

But the idea of creating AI robot slaves to take over the universe for us as if a bunch of robots 500 million lightyears away are somehow benefiting our monkey asses on Earth is just absolutely fuck retarded.

[Anonymous No.7488779]

>>7488580
What I don't understand about the Fermi paradox is that the paradox is supposed to be that on the one hand we don't think we are the only intelligent civilization in our galaxy. On the other hand considering how old our galaxy is, it would have been possible for an intelligent species to colonize the galaxy in that time.

But isn't it false, and kind of stupid, to think that only because our galaxy is old, there should have been a civilization that managed to colonize our galaxy? Maybe all the species in our galaxy are young like us?

[Anonymous No.7488781]

>>7488580
You forgot the greatest and most important filter of all: DISTANCE

2/10: rehashed Drake pop-sci

[Anonymous No.7488785]

>>7488604
>my conclusion is that intelligent life is very very very rare
That's unfounded speculation, not exactly a "conclusion".
If GR and causality hold true, there's no FTL.
There could be millions of species just like us in this galaxy alone, and we'd never meet any of them.
Or, we could be getting visited, and we just don't notice.
If the ET's have shown up here a *million* times since the Earth began, that's a genuine "close encounter" once every 4600 years, on average.
That's only once or twice in all of recorded history.
To really notice the aliens, we'd probably have to get colonized.
Maybe there's a simple reason that hasn't happened.

[Anonymous No.7489405]

>>7488604
> my conclusion is that intelligent life is very very very rare. incomprehensibly rare. I'd say we're the only intelligent life in the galaxy, at least.

Yes, intelligence is exceedingly rare, in our galaxy, even our planet, even the human race, even in this thread.

also

> we're the only intelligent life in the galaxy, at least.
> we're
> we

implying you are part of intelligent life.
Toppest of keks. My keks are so top, the gravitational potential energy stored in them could run the LHC for a century :^)

[Anonymous No.7489510]

>>7489405

>the gravitational potential energy stored in them could run the LHC

[Anonymous No.7489546]

>>7488621
The first great filter is hydrocarbon presence, dood. Without some kind of kickass simple power source you can't industrialize

[Anonymous No.7489547]

Are TV and radio signals strong enough to be detectable across light-years?

TV signals from earth might be hitting a planet 60 light-years away right now, but would the signal have dissipated so much that the ayy lmaos can't make anything of it?

Would they be able to identify our signals as anything more than random noise?

[Anonymous No.7489553]

>>7488785
I would speculate there would be alien Von Neumann probes all over the fucking place.

[Anonymous No.7489555]

>>7489547
>Are TV and radio signals strong enough to be detectable across light-years?

after a light year they are so degraded that it blends into cosmic background noise and becomes undecipherable

thats why they have those huge SETI dishes, they try to separate the noise from any potential signals from another civilization

[Anonymous No.7489558]

>>7488779
That would make a filter of some sort that killed all the older civ's, remember we are REALLY late in terms of star formation and earth like planets... like billions of years late... we ae so late that any other civ's could have taken the entire galaxy using stuff that travels at voyager probe speed a couple of billion years ago,.
The fermi paradox isn't just related to our galaxy, every galaxy and star we see is natural in it's output so not one typeII civ has developed in the entire observable universe? why/ what are we missing? Also everyone worried about spreading to breed, no it's spreading to get more matter to make more computational/processing power and harness more energy.. So not one civ has expanded logically/exponentally in the 8,000,000,000 years since there have been heavy elements, in the entire observable universe? That is the fermi paradox, the fact that no matter how low we make the rate of intellegent life and we keep our current max speed as thiers...every atom in the universe should be some form of "computronium" by a couple billion years ago... orthey have and we are in a zoo..

[Anonymous No.7489564]

>>7489555
So then I guess that's a major issue with the plot of Contact, there's no way the ayy lmaos would be able pick up that Hitler TV broadcast

[Anonymous No.7489581]

>>7489564
Depends on how big their dish is.

[Anonymous No.7489589]

>>7489510
It seems our autism/retardation is matched :^)

[Anonymous No.7489590]

>>7488605
Educate yourself. Top scientists in the AI field are estimating we will have general AI as early as 2045.

[Anonymous No.7489591]

>>7488589
>i've never seen the idea of 'multiple great filters' before

It's literally this article word for word you prat.

http://waitbutwhy.com/2014/05/fermi-paradox.html

[Anonymous No.7490256]

>>7488580
you complete ignore the
>physical reality prevents signals
>physical reality prevents feasible space travel

all the rest is just hand wavy bullshit

[Anonymous No.7490288]

>>7489553
>I would speculate there would be alien Von Neumann probes all over the fucking place.

Maybe there are.
Why would you expect us to ever see one?
We've discovered about a half-dozen dwarf planets in the last 12-15 years, each hundreds of miles in diameter, and we've never seen any of them close up.
The only reason we're finding them is because we're looking at the Kuiper Belt.

[Anonymous No.7490294]

>>7489558
>remember we are REALLY late in terms of star formation and earth like planets
Not really.
The first generation or two of stars wouldn't have had any rocky planets (or gas giants either) because there wasn't anything besides hydrogen and helium until generations of stars fused heavier elements together.

>every galaxy and star we see is natural in it's output
Says who? We hypothesize natural sources for everything because it's simpler than assuming "aliens did it".
Maybe quasars are artificial. How would we even know what to look for?

>no it's spreading to get more matter to make more computational/processing power and harness more energy
What do I have to smoke to also magically know what motivates all alien civilizations?

[Anonymous No.7490296]

>>7489590
>Top scientists in the AI field are estimating we will have general AI as early as 2045.
Just like fusion, the "real deal" is always 30 years out.

[Anonymous No.7491237]

>>7490296

we're very close to solving computer vision/maneuvering, 5-9 years away, and NLP will be the only challenge left at that point. if you don't think language will have been solved by 2045 you're probably a moron.

[Anonymous No.7491260]

>>7490288
I don't expect us to encounter one, space is too damn big.

Unlike planets though, alien probes may broadcast intelligent EM shit, or do something that makes them noticeable. Lets hope not though. A discovery of that nature, even if completely harmless could be totally destabilizing.

[Violent Simians Guy No.7491272]

When you look at our species, how do you not understand the primacy of economics in determining all of our behavior?

The Fermi Paradox is fully explained by extrapolating from Human economics. We don't do things unless we can concentrate wealth from those actions. And expanding into space past the horrible energy barrier of launch, isn't economic.

[Anonymous No.7491615]

>>7491272
>The Fermi Paradox is fully explained by extrapolating from Human economics.

What the actual fuck are you talking about.
You assume aliens have economies and money and live in societies, and its these factors that limit their expansion into space which prevents us from seeing them or having them visit our planet.

Maybe that works if you live in some star trek fantasy world where all aliens have messed up noses and foreheads but are essentially humans with human motives who for some reason all speak English.

[Anonymous No.7491647]

>we don't even know how the closest extrasolar planets look like
>the solar system may have life but we don't know it yet because we are fags and we haven't sent anything to the iced moons of the gas giants
>we are complete tech noobs , our radio communications are 100 ly away , wich is nothing on the scale of the galaxy
>even if someone got , them we probably wouldn't know yet

and on top of that

>IMPLYING ALIENS USE RADIO , we are closer to quantum intrication communication than than to the telephone , why the fuck would they still use or bother to listen to radio , especially since the universe is noisy as fuck of useless crap on radio frequencies

[Anonymous No.7491986]

>>7488641
rekt