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/sci/ - Science & Math


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7416546 No.7416546 [Reply] [Original]

Who's scared? Also, how do these earthquake predictions work... how do they make them? Anyone know?

>A major earthquake could hit the San Francisco Bay Area "any day now", according to a scientist from the US Geological Survey (USGS).

>The Hayward fault, less well known than California's famous San Andreas fault, caused a minor 4.0-magnitude tremor on Tuesday.

>There was no major damage when it hit the border of Fremont and Union City, but Tom Brocher from the USGS said the fault is a ticking time bomb

http://news.sky.com/story/1523331/major-san-francisco-quake-expected-any-day-now

>> No.7416560

We've been over due for the 8.0 so I assume its just broad assumptions based on the placement of the tectonic plates.

>> No.7416562
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7416562

>>7416546
Is it happening?

Can we finally say goodbye to San Francisco?

>> No.7416563
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7416563

>>7416546

Yeah no shit, we're overdue for a big quake by at least ten years.

It doesn't matter though because following the '84 quake the state forced earthquake bracing on everyone. Homes that couldn't be braced were red tagged and torn down, which is why there aren't any old brick buildings in CA anymore.

The real issue is fire, because things like stoves, candles or unsecured water heaters can tip over. However, the issue isn't as big as it once was, after the big natural gas pipeline explosion/fire in Fresno a few years ago PG&E has been going around and replacing a lot of their pipes and pump stations.

>> No.7416565

>>7416560
Right. And I think they also count the frequency of smaller quakes. I have no idea about geology/earthquakes but that seems like a reasonable data point for making predictions...


>>7416562
kek'd. Arizon Bay when?

>> No.7416568
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7416568

>>7416562

You won't ever. San Francisco's fire department has fire boats. The city will never burn down, unlike much of the Peninsula where all the cities are filled with rich jews that don't trim their trees.

pic related, this thing kept the Marina district from burning down completely in '84

>> No.7416573

>>7416563
>However, the issue isn't as big as it once was, after the big natural gas pipeline explosion/fire in Fresno a few years ago PG&E has been going around and replacing a lot of their pipes and pump stations.
I'm assuming BART would be fucked for months/years after the big one?

Also, what about gas pipeline and other underground infrastructure like fiber and copper cables? That would require major repairs as well..

>> No.7416574

I'm pretty sure Western CA has been due "any day now" to have a massive 8.9 earthquake that knocks it into the ocean since I was a little kid.

>> No.7416579

What are the chances of a superquake triggering Yellowstone?

>> No.7416580

>>7416579
3.50%

>> No.7416583

God shall smite fagland, ye hath been warned

>> No.7416585

>>7416580
[citation needed]

Also, is this statistically relevant?

>> No.7416586

>>7416579
we simply do not know. but the risk is clearly there.

>> No.7416587
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7416587

>>7416573

In all likelihood no. It took the state only a year to rebuild the Cypress Freeway (though not as a double deck). Ed Lee himself has recently been proposing a second transbay tube as well.

But more importantly, even if BART were to go out the state could handle it by adding more ferries and buses while hiking bridge tolls until the tube could be fixed. More importantly, the eastern span of the bay bridge was replaced, which was good because it likely wouldn't have survived another quake (pic related, the eastern span in '84).

>Also, what about gas pipeline and other underground infrastructure like fiber and copper cables? That would require major repairs as well.

It likely won't, and even if it did PG&E would be quick to fix it because all their workers would be getting double overtime. In '84 PG&E was quick to restore power/water service. When someone shot up their substation back in 2013 it only took them three hours to get it back into service, with only a ten minute brownout.

Of course, this is all SF/norcal. LA is a different story. LA also doesn't have anything of value though.

>> No.7416600

>>7416583

god doesn't need to intervene, all the fags are getting pushed out by yuppies. They either move back to their states of origin ('bama, NOVA) or they move up north to Portland and Seattle

>> No.7416611
File: 97 KB, 575x395, TunnelPlug.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
7416611

>>7416573

the same technology that used to fix sewage and water line leaks is now being adopted for regular tunnels

behold, the greatest engineering achievement of the twenty first century

>> No.7416629

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CArWivYt208

>> No.7416636

>>7416611
>behold, the greatest engineering achievement of the twenty first century
A plug??? So you plug the hole and then what? No service?

>> No.7416652

>>7416636

>plug hole
>fix leak from outside
>drain water from inside
>deflate pill

this way only a portion of the tunnel is actually flooded so there's less repair costs

also, you could just plug all the entrances before a big storm

>> No.7416656

California doesn't have the right type of fault lines for an earthquake over a 7. You need subduction faults like Japan has for them to get into 8 or 9.

>> No.7416670

>>7416587
Caltech/USC/UCLA?

>> No.7416672

The best unscientific but accountable way to know is if there is a sudden spike in lost pet ads in the newspaper, if a large amount of the neighborhood cats and dogs run for the hills it's a clear omen

>> No.7416676
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7416676

>>7416670

Chabot Community College

>> No.7416677

>>7416629
That made me laugh, when he started coughing in the middle. I turned it off right after that though.

>> No.7416678

>>7416656
im interested in this, can you post some info or point me in the right direction at least?

>> No.7416685

>>7416656
We've had a few over 7. Granted the largest was
only 7.9

>> No.7416716

>>7416678
Basic geology lesson:

Faults are the cracks between tectonic plates. Where two faults meet is a "fault boundary." (No shit)

The two types of fault boundaries we're concerned with are convergent boundaries (Japan, among many others) and transform or "strike-slip" boundaries (California's San Andreas, among others).

At a convergent boundary, one plate slides underneath another plate, into the mantle. At a transform boundary, two plates slide laterally against each other. In both cases, when one plate gets stuck, it builds up energy. When it gets unstuck (because of a fracture in the rock, perhaps), energy is suddenly released.

Generally speaking, energy builds up in greater amounts at convergent boundaries than transform.

>> No.7417473

>>7416716
I appreciate the effort you put in. Thanks for the response anon

>> No.7417481

can't wait to feel it in los angeles
tbh i honestly cant wait

>> No.7417773

>>7416579
>>>/questionsthatdeservetheirownthread/

>> No.7417790
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7417790

>tfw california will never be swept into the pacific ocean
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/topics/megaqk_facts_fantasy.php

>> No.7417805

>>7416546
Im 100% convinced god will punish the people of San Fransisco for being full of faggots.

Its happened before.

>> No.7417810

>>7417805

read >>7416600

The gays have been moving out for years now. Even Austin has a more "vibrant" gay community, all SF has at this point are a handful of porn studios and a BDSM dungeon.

And god doesn't need to punish SF when SF is doing a fine job at punishing itself. The city's rapid gentrification has led to strain on all it's services, most of which require upgrades that will take decades to implement (such as, a second BART tube, HSR, ro-ro garbage ferries, a bigger jail). But people chose to live there because it's not the shitheap that is LA.

>> No.7418388

>>7416568
Id like to see what it does vs a Tsunami.