/sci/ - Science & Math

[Anonymous No.6160083]

Is who wants to be a millionaire just a game of luck?

I mean, there's 33.34% chance of being right unless the person happens to know the right answer, and lifelines can only get you so far into the game.

Let's say there are 15 questions with 4 choices each. Let's also say there are 3 lifelines: call-a-friend, 50-50, and ask-the-audience.

For each of the 15 questions, there is only 1 correct answer, and 3 incorrect answers, so immediately your chances are 1/3 = 33.34%. You can use each lifeline once. Using phone-a-friend, let's say gives you a 95% chance the person you call is correct. So 1 question is 95%. Similarly, we can say ask-the-audience gives you a 95% chance. Finally, 50-50 will remove 2 wrong answers, so you have 1 right answer and 1 wrong answer, so you basically know the answer. To recap:

Question 1: 33.34%
Question 2: 33.34%
Question 3: 33.34%
Question 4: 95% <--- ask-the-audience
Question 5: 33.34%
Question 6: 33.34%
Question 7: 33.34%
Question 8: 33.34%
Question 9: 95% <--- phone-a-friend
Question 10: 33.34%
Question 11: 33.34%
Question 12: 33.34%
Question 13: 33.34%
Question 14: 33.34%
Question 15: 100% <--- 50-50
Total: 690.08%
Divided by 15 questions = 46.00%
So basically, it's more a less a game of chance, but more than half the people on the show will lose, so it's not very fair. That show is making tons of money off of people.

[Anonymous No.6160088]

>>6160083
>For each of the 15 questions, there is only 1 correct answer, and 3 incorrect answers, so immediately your chances are 1/3 = 33.34%

I think you need to review probability. Specifically the part about selecting a single item from a set of items

>Finally, 50-50 will remove 2 wrong answers, so you have 1 right answer and 1 wrong answer, so you basically know the answer.

ibid.

I'm pretty sure this is bait, but I feel obligated to explain this, just in case.

[Anonymous No.6160092]

>1 correct answer, and 3 incorrect answers
>33.34%

[Anonymous No.6160095]

I mean these threads last like an hour max.

I know you can just get a new ip, but it has to be work and there's just so many easier ways to troll

[Anonymous No.6160096]

old troll post, 0/10
Given the number of bio people here, /sci/ is not the best place to bring cancer. OUT.

[Anonymous No.6160101]

>>6160096
very old, stop replying to it, you become part of the problem if you don't sage it

[Anonymous No.6160110]

>>6160088
I can't believe you replied honestly.

[Anonymous No.6160111]

>>6160095
stop replying, you give me power, i wrote the original 33.34% add it up divide by etc reply who cares, stop replying to i

[Anonymous No.6160124]

>>6160083
So, roughly a 46% chance of getting each question correct. That is with a (terrible) premise that the person in the seat knows not a single answer (since you averaged based on 15 answers). More realistically, your average person will complete 7~ questions before encountering issues (for simplicity, we'll say 90% chance for each one), so you'd have more like a 68% chance per question post-#7.

Thus a 4.5% chance of victory, ignoring externalities and extraordinarily well-versed people (i.e. Jennings). With these values, you have a 59% chance of getting $1000 (though this value is actually higher, since the really early questions are closer to 100% than 90% difficulty), and a 22% chance of getting $32000.

Of course, the network is still earning shittons of dough comparatively, but it's really not that unfair, all things considered. Obviously, these are just guestimates.

[Anonymous No.6160128]

>>6160124
dude come on, it's 50-50, you win or you don't. why so hiehfwehwefihwef

here
hweihweifhwifhwef
and then


weiorhwperh
this is how he original OP of this reply felt

[Anonymous No.6160131]

>>6160111
b& for b& evasion?

[Anonymous No.6160134]

>>6160124
I'm pukefucking myself in the tit-gap with your response.

[Anonymous No.6160144]

>tfw i have a higher iq then all contestents on WWTBAM
If any of you were a genius like i am you would have 100% chance of wining

[Anonymous No.6160149]

>>6160111

You wrote the WHOLE thing?