/sci/ - Science & Math

[Anonymous No.6110775]

Is Who wants to be a millionaire just a game of luck?

I mean, there's 33.34% chance of being right unless the person happens to know the right answer, and lifelines can only get you so far into the game.

Let's say there are 15 questions with 4 choices each. Let's also say there are 3 lifelines: call-a-friend, 50-50, and ask-the-audience.

For each of the 15 questions, there is only 1 correct answer, and 3 incorrect answers, so immediately your chances are 1/3 = 33.34%. You can use each lifeline once. Using phone-a-friend, let's say gives you a 95% chance the person you call is correct. So 1 question is 95%. Similarly, we can say ask-the-audience gives you a 95% chance. Finally, 50-50 will remove 2 wrong answers, so you have 1 right answer and 1 wrong answer, so you basically know the answer. To recap:

Question 1: 33.34%
Question 2: 33.34%
Question 3: 33.34%
Question 4: 95% <--- ask-the-audience
Question 5: 33.34%
Question 6: 33.34%
Question 7: 33.34%
Question 8: 33.34%
Question 9: 95% <--- phone-a-friend
Question 10: 33.34%
Question 11: 33.34%
Question 12: 33.34%
Question 13: 33.34%
Question 14: 33.34%
Question 15: 100% <--- 50-50
Total: 690.08%
Divided by 15 questions = 46.00%
So basically, it's more a less a game of chance, but more than half the people on the show will lose, so it's not very fair. That show is making tons of money off of people.

[Anonymous No.6110777]

>>6110775
How can you even play this game when numbers aren't even rigorously defined?

[Anonymous No.6110817]

>>6110775
To many variables.

A person may go on the show and have all the knowledge already to answer every question, therefore his chance before the questions begin is 100%.

And some of the questions are designed to throw you off, if you get a question you have no idea about, the question and answer may be set in a way so you lean more towards one answer ect ect.

[Anonymous No.6110820]

>Question 1: 33.34%
97% of people get question 1 correct, this kind of math doesn't really apply to this kind of game.

[Anonymous No.6110824]

>>6110820
>>6110817
how are people still getting baited by this ????

[Anonymous No.6110825]

>this post

[Anonymous No.6110829]

> So basically, it's more a less a game of chance, but more than half the people on the show will lose, so it's not very fair. That show is making tons of money off of people.
People don't gamble a million dollars going in.
46% is pretty good for a completely random game show.
If the contestant has ANY knowledge, he should ace the first 5 or so questions, which will eventually knock it over 50%.
That and the stages lower than a million means a person leaving before reaching a million should have a better than chance result.

I leave the actual calculations as an exercise

[Anonymous No.6110830]

>>6110775
>I mean, there's 33.34% chance of being right
You are not evaluating every case.
What if a person is convinced that one specific wrong answer is the right answer?
What if a person is evaluating two wrong answers as the possible right answer?
What if a person thinks that every answer, but the right answer, is the right answer?

>For each of the 15 questions, there is only 1 correct answer, and 3 incorrect answers, so immediately your chances are 1/3 = 33.34%. You can use each lifeline once. Using phone-a-friend, let's say gives you a 95% chance the person you call is correct. So 1 question is 95%. Similarly, we can say ask-the-audience gives you a 95% chance. Finally, 50-50 will remove 2 wrong answers, so you have 1 right answer and 1 wrong answer, so you basically know the answer.
Lifelines can fail from time to time. We've seen it a lot of times. Most of the time happens that more than a half of the public is wrong, for instance.

[Anonymous No.6110833]

>>6110824
it is a hive troll, we all join in

[Anonymous No.6110836]

>>6110824
Threads like this make up 80% of /sci/, when threads like this become the norm you forget whats real.

[Anonymous No.6110841]

>there is only 1 correct answer, and 3 incorrect answers, so immediately your chances are 1/3 = 33.34%

Wouldn't it be 1/4, so 25%?

[Anonymous No.6110842]

>>6110824
Newfags, such as myself.

[Anonymous No.6110844]

>>6110841
you mean 24.9%

[Anonymous No.6110870]

>>6110842
welcome, friend

[Anonymous No.6110981]

1/3 does not round to 33.34%
1 right and 3 wrong is a 1/4 chance.
You don't average the chances, you multiply them.

[Anonymous No.6110985]

>>6110981
Yeah, but you can prove anything with facts

[Anonymous No.6111047]

>>6110981
actually, percentages are bijective, so you can

[Anonymous No.6111067]

>>6111047
>>6110985
I, I just got baited.

[Anonymous No.6111302]

>>6110836
No they don't, use the catalog and be sure to sort by thread date.

[Anonymous No.6111341]

That's wrong it' 5/16 due to juntry's conhugture

Then you have to grid each A so A = 1
then you 1*15 So
A = 15
B = 30
C = 45
D = 60

using this method we can see that if the participant takes D for all question it's actually a 60% of success

In short OPs conclusion is wrong

Q.E.D

[Anonymous No.6111345]

These threads are the highlight of sci

[Anonymous No.6111347]

>>6110775
>>6110825

Pic related, it's OP.

I feel dumber after reading this post.