/sci/ - Science & Math

[Anonymous No.6052936]

Is Who wants to be a millionaire just a game of luck?

I mean, there's 33.34% chance of being right unless the person happens to know the right answer, and lifelines can only get you so far into the game.

Let's say there are 15 questions with 4 choices each. Let's also say there are 3 lifelines: call-a-friend, 50-50, and ask-the-audience.

For each of the 15 questions, there is only 1 correct answer, and 3 incorrect answers, so immediately your chances are 1/3 = 33.34%. You can use each lifeline once. Using phone-a-friend, let's say gives you a 95% chance the person you call is correct. So 1 question is 95%. Similarly, we can say ask-the-audience gives you a 95% chance. Finally, 50-50 will remove 2 wrong answers, so you have 1 right answer and 1 wrong answer, so you basically know the answer. To recap:

Question 1: 33.34%
Question 2: 33.34%
Question 3: 33.34%
Question 4: 95% <--- ask-the-audience
Question 5: 33.34%
Question 6: 33.34%
Question 7: 33.34%
Question 8: 33.34%
Question 9: 95% <--- phone-a-friend
Question 10: 33.34%
Question 11: 33.34%
Question 12: 33.34%
Question 13: 33.34%
Question 14: 33.34%
Question 15: 100% <--- 50-50
Total: 690.08%
Divided by 15 questions = 46.00%
So basically, it's more a less a game of chance, but more than half the people on the show will lose, so it's not very fair. That show is making tons of money off of people.

[Anonymous No.6052938]

>>6052936
god damn y r u posting on /sci/ if your r such a retard?

[Anonymous No.6052939]

That is not how this works.

[Anonymous No.6052941]

>33.34%
how so?

[Anonymous No.6052947]

>there is only 1 correct answer, and 3 incorrect answers, so immediately your chances are 1/3 = 33.34%
wut

[Anonymous No.6052948]

>>6052936
I'm not a mathematicioan, but if there are 4 options, wouldn't there be a 25% chance of it being right?
Faggot.

[Anonymous No.6052951]

this is clearly b8.

>finding average of percentages as total chance
7/10

[Anonymous No.6052959]

>>6052951
>>6052948
>>6052947
>>6052941
>>6052939
>>6052938
How much of newfags are you? This is one of the oldest copy pasta shit troll thread in this shit board.

[Anonymous No.6052965]

Let's fix this.
Assume the participant is guessing answers randomly.
There is a 1/4 probabilty that his guess is correct.
Let's also assume that the audience and his dumbass friend will answer any question correctly 100% of the time.
The additional 50-50 lifeline reduces that chances of guessing the correct answer is 50%.

Given this, we can surmise that the probability of him guessing every question correctly while utilizing all three live lines is represented by the equation:
(.25^12)*(.5^1)*(1^2)
Which approximately equals:
0.0000000298023223876953125
Which is to say that he has approximately .000003% chance of guessing all the answers correctly.

[Anonymous No.6052986]

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[Anonymous No.6053022]

>>6052959
It's amazing to me that this still gets replie.