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/sci/ - Science & Math

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5704173 No.5704173[DELETED]  [Reply] [Original]

Is Who wants to be a millionaire just a game of luck?

I mean, there's 33.34% chance of being right unless the person happen to know the answer, and lifelines can only get you so far into the game.

>> No.5704175

>>5704173

Let's say there are 15 questions with 4 choices each. Let's also say there are 3 lifelines: call-a-friend, 50-50, and ask-the-audience.

For each of the 15 questions, there is only 1 correct answer, and 3 incorrect answers, so immediately your chances are 1/3 = 33.34%. You can use each lifeline once. Using phone-a-friend, let's say gives you a 95% chance the person you call is correct. So 1 question is 95%. Similarly, we can say ask-the-audience gives you a 95% chance. Finally, 50-50 will remove 2 wrong answers, so you have 1 right answer and 1 wrong answer, so you basically know the answer. To recap:

Question 1: 33.34%

Question 2: 33.34%

Question 3: 33.34%

Question 4: 95% <--- ask-the-audience

Question 5: 33.34%

Question 6: 33.34%

Question 7: 33.34%

Question 8: 33.34%

Question 9: 95% <--- phone-a-friend

Question 10: 33.34%

Question 11: 33.34%

Question 12: 33.34%

Question 13: 33.34%

Question 14: 33.34%

Question 15: 100% <--- 50-50

Total: 690.08%

Divided by 15 questions = 46.00%

So basically, it's more a less a game of chance, but more than half the people on the show will lose, so it's not very fair. That show is making tons of money off of people.

>> No.5704180

oh its this thread again...

>> No.5704185

>>5704180
Why are you upset? It is an unsolved problem in measure-theoretic probability theory.

>> No.5704201

Wouldn't the chance of being right if you guessed at a question be 1/4? Should be number of correct answers divided by total number of answers...

>> No.5704205

>>5704201
No. You have one correct answer, three incorrect, four total. The probability is then 1/3 = 33.34%. This is a triviality, but please read >>5704175. What have you done with your eyes and your brain that caused you to overlook that post?

>> No.5704207

le epic troll bro xDDDDDDD

>> No.5704206

Also wouldn't 50:50 be 1/2 not 100%? You can't assume that it'd be obvious which answer is correct...

>> No.5704208

>>5704206
>Also wouldn't 50:50 be 1/2 not 100%?
No.
>You can't assume that it'd be obvious which answer is correct...
We are not assuming anything. It is all rigorously derived in >>5704175.
>>5704207
Who is trolling?

>> No.5704209

>>5704205
You just restated the post that didn't satify me the first time.

You have 4 courses of action, one of which is successful, you say the probability of success is 1/3 for this but that discounts one of the incorrect possibilities. This isn't even remotely difficult either...

>> No.5704210

>>5704209
>arguing with trolls

>> No.5704213

>>5704210
I wasn't sure if they were trolling or not, I'd rather take the chance (lol) and correct the mistake, intentional or not.

>> No.5704217

>>5704213
>I wasn't sure if they were trolling or not, I'd rather take the chance (lol) and correct the mistake, intentional or not.

>Newfriends arguing with trolls
You just went double cancer

>> No.5704218

>>5704209
>You just restated the post that didn't satify me the first time.
Then you are cognitively impaired. Why are you so caught up in these basic statements? They are irrelevant to the real problem.
>You have 4 courses of action, one of which is successful
Correct.
>but that discounts one of the incorrect possibilities
It does not.
>This isn't even remotely difficult either...
This is an unsolved problem in measure-theoretic probability theory. If you find that it is so simple, then please solve it for us.
>>5704210
I do not understand why we have so many poor troll attempts in these threads. Why do the people here hate maths?

>> No.5704219

sage

>> No.5704222

Cute, a measure theoretic probability theory thread.

I found an interesting approach to the problem but it only works under the assumption that the Furstenberg conjecture holds true.

>> No.5704225

this thread is the stalest copypasta ever, and u tards fell for it lolol

>> No.5704248

>>5704175
>But if you use a lifeline at every question the chance of success is now 95%
Thus making this claim
>That show is making tons of money off of people.
Wrong

>> No.5704256

>>5704248
>Wrong
Where is your proof?

>> No.5704325
File: 134 KB, 698x569, millionaire.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
5704325

>> No.5705210

>Is Who wants to be a millionaire just a game of luck?

probably

>> No.5706532 [DELETED] 
File: 435 KB, 757x740, quantumcatlady.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
5706532

>> No.5706634

What if it is actually 33.35%?

>> No.5706655

>>5706634
Where is your proof? Do you know what maths is? What if invisible rape demons in cloudcuckooland? Take that pile of random childish escapism fantasy bullshit to >>>/x/.

>> No.5706661

>>5704173
>33.34%
>4 choices
holy shit nigger what the fuck

>> No.5706687

>>5704173
how the fuck is it 33% when you are given 4 choices? isnt it 25%?

>> No.5706704

>>5706687
You have one correct answer, three incorrect, four total. The probability is then 1/3 = 33.34%. Read the proof posted in >>5704175.

>> No.5706757

>>5706704
please tell me ur trolling.

>> No.5706784

>>5704173
Who picks the questions?
>well shit