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/sci/ - Science & Math

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5584506 No.5584506[DELETED]  [Reply] [Original]

Is Who wants to be a millionaire just a game of luck?

I mean, there's 33.34% chance of being right unless the person happen to know the answer, and lifelines can only get you so far into the game.

>> No.5584507

>>5584506

Let's say there are 15 questions with 4 choices each. Let's also say there are 3 lifelines: call-a-friend, 50-50, and ask-the-audience.

For each of the 15 questions, there is only 1 correct answer, and 3 incorrect answers, so immediately your chances are 1/3 = 33.34%. You can use each lifeline once. Using phone-a-friend, let's say gives you a 95% chance the person you call is correct. So 1 question is 95%. Similarly, we can say ask-the-audience gives you a 95% chance. Finally, 50-50 will remove 2 wrong answers, so you have 1 right answer and 1 wrong answer, so you basically know the answer. To recap:

Question 1: 33.34%

Question 2: 33.34%

Question 3: 33.34%

Question 4: 95% <--- ask-the-audience

Question 5: 33.34%

Question 6: 33.34%

Question 7: 33.34%

Question 8: 33.34%

Question 9: 95% <--- phone-a-friend

Question 10: 33.34%

Question 11: 33.34%

Question 12: 33.34%

Question 13: 33.34%

Question 14: 33.34%

Question 15: 100% <--- 50-50

Total: 690.08%

Divided by 15 questions = 46.00%

So basically, it's more a less a game of chance, but more than half the people on the show will lose, so it's not very fair. That show is making tons of money off of people.

>> No.5584523

I believe some people in this thread are confusing probability and odds.

If one out of four possible answers is correct, then excluding any other factors the percentage change of a random answer is 25%, not 33.34%, right?

>> No.5584530

>>5584523
can you be any more new.

>> No.5584535

>>5584530
It just doesn't seem sound to apply that sort of percentage when trying to calculate something like this. I am not a math-fag so perhaps I am making myself look like a fool right now.

>> No.5584536

>>5584535
http://archive.installgentoo.net/sci/?task=search&ghost=&search_text=Is+Who+wants+to+be+a+millionaire+just+a+game+of+luck%3F

>> No.5584538

>>5584535
http://archive.installgentoo.net/sci/?task=search2&search_media_hash=6d23yZz7gvlq1waC0UzZKw%3D%3D

>> No.5584543

>>5584536
I again find myself out of my element in continuing to comment on this, but if I am correct, 'chances' are specifically the ratio of a certain result versus the total amount of all possible results, including the certain result in question.

Therefore, it would seem that the percentage chance of a totally random answer; excluding any and all outside variables; would be 25%, or one correct answer out of a total of four possible answers.

>> No.5584545

>>5584543
no, lets say you flip a coin, its 1 head and 1 tail, thus the chance of it landing on either is 1/1 = 1

>> No.5584547

>>5584506
OP's fucking retarded its 50/50

>> No.5584552

Where is Harriet?

>> No.5584553

>>5584552
its 11:30. shes having her gangbang now.

>> No.5584554

>>5584545
Naturally the chance of it landing on either side is 1/1, or 2 outcomes out of only 2 possible outcomes to begin with.

However, in this game you are looking for 1 certain answer out of a total of 4 possible answers; considering that calculating 'chances' means taking into account all possibilities versus the preferred possibility, that would leave the chances of your random answer being correct at 1/4, or 25%.

Calculating it as odds, using instead a fraction that considers a single possibility over a whole of possibilities from which it is not included, makes that fraction improper in the sense that we apply fractions and percentages mathematically.

>> No.5584556

>>5584545
WRONG SooPID ONE IS ALWAYS WRONG THEREFORE ITS A 33.43% chance it'll be tails!

>> No.5584557
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5584557

>>5584554
how about a test?

>> No.5584559
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5584559

>>5584554
dur.

and i extended it to 500 rows.

>> No.5584562

>>5584559
DUDE, THAT'S CLOSE TO <span class="math">/pi[/spoiler] MAN, SO OVIOUSLY THE CHANGE OF EACH QUESTION IS <span class="math">/pi / 10[/spoiler]

>> No.5584565

>>5584562
I regret nothing.

>> No.5584570

>>5584557
>>5584559
>excel
lel

>> No.5584580

>>5584570
>not using excel.
no other program comes close when visualizing the flow of data is important.

>> No.5584587
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5584587

>> No.5584588
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5584588

Why is she so perfect?

>> No.5584595

>>5584588
she's a 1/3 at best. That's <span class="math">\pi/10%[/spoiler]

>> No.5584596
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5584596

>>5584587
My Klein Ponie Thread?

>> No.5584607

>>5584588
EK is jealous.

>> No.5584609

>>5584607
Fuck off, im not jealous of that bitch.

>> No.5584613

>>5584506
err, why is it 33.34%, are you sure you don't mean 1/3 (or 33.3 (recurring) %)?

>> No.5584618

>>5584613
>what is rounding

>> No.5584635
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5584635

>>5584595

>> No.5584665

Why?

>> No.5584676

>>5584506
oh please, stop these threads already, you are the cancer that is destroying sci

>> No.5585085 [DELETED] 
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5585085

>>5584676
no

>> No.5585102

>>5584618
>rounding 13.333333... to 13.34

What.

>> No.5585162

B-b-but there are 4 options, isn't it 1/4 chance each question?

>> No.5585262

>>5585162

1 : 3

just like at the race track,

therefore 33.34%

that's maths.. you can't argue with it.

>> No.5585263

>>5585262
You know that is not how it works.
Stop making this silly thread all the time.