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/sci/ - Science & Math

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5563116 No.5563116[DELETED]  [Reply] [Original]

Is Who wants to be a millionaire just a game of luck?

I mean, there's 33.34% chance of being right unless the person happen to know the answer, and lifelines can only get you so far into the game.

>> No.5563117

>>5563116

Let's say there are 15 questions with 4 choices each. Let's also say there are 3 lifelines: call-a-friend, 50-50, and ask-the-audience.

For each of the 15 questions, there is only 1 correct answer, and 3 incorrect answers, so immediately your chances are 1/3 = 33.34%. You can use each lifeline once. Using phone-a-friend, let's say gives you a 95% chance the person you call is correct. So 1 question is 95%. Similarly, we can say ask-the-audience gives you a 95% chance. Finally, 50-50 will remove 2 wrong answers, so you have 1 right answer and 1 wrong answer, so you basically know the answer. To recap:

Question 1: 33.34%

Question 2: 33.34%

Question 3: 33.34%

Question 4: 95% <--- ask-the-audience

Question 5: 33.34%

Question 6: 33.34%

Question 7: 33.34%

Question 8: 33.34%

Question 9: 95% <--- phone-a-friend

Question 10: 33.34%

Question 11: 33.34%

Question 12: 33.34%

Question 13: 33.34%

Question 14: 33.34%

Question 15: 100% <--- 50-50

Total: 690.08%

Divided by 15 questions = 46.00%

So basically, it's more a less a game of chance, but more than half the people on the show will lose, so it's not very fair. That show is making tons of money off of people.

>> No.5563123
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5563123

as much as i hate this copypasta the 50-50 justification always amused me for it's sheer retardedness

>> No.5563125 [DELETED] 
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>> No.5563131

>>5563116
I get banned for posting frodo, but this guy gets to show up everyday?

>> No.5563132
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>> No.5563136
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>> No.5563135

>>5563123
And why do you affirm mathematics cares about your commiserable emotional intuition? It does not.

>> No.5563137
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>> No.5563139

>>5563131

This is 4chan. The mods are the biggest trolls of all.

>> No.5563141
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5563141

sage

>> No.5563143
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>> No.5563140
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>> No.5563146

>>5563140
She has stupid eyes. This equates to her intelligence.

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>> No.5563153
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>> No.5563160
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>> No.5563162

Fuck off, Teacup.

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>> No.5563164
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>> No.5563175

Where is Harriet?

>> No.5563178
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>> No.5563198
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>> No.5563193
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>>5563175

>> No.5563200
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>> No.5563204

>>5563198
lel

>> No.5563202
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>> No.5564244 [DELETED] 
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5564244

ZIMBABWE

>> No.5564249

>>5563117

How is it that the chance to get an answer correct is 33% when it's 1 correct answer of 4 possible choices? It should be 25% per question.

>> No.5564254

>>5564249
Read it again. One correct answer, three wrong, four total. 1/3 = 33.34%.

>> No.5564261

>>5564254

In a complete guessing scenario, you have a 1 in 4 chance of getting the correct answer.

Why would you divide the # of correct answers by # of incorrect answers? Should it not be # of correct answers divided by total # of choices?

>> No.5564265

>>5564249
>>5564254
>>5564261
You're both wrong, it's exactly 50%. Either you get it right, or you don't. Measure theoretic probability theory etc etc.

>> No.5564266

>>5564265

So you're saying the chance I'll get a multiple choice question with 4 choices is 50%? Does not compute

>> No.5564316

>>5563117

The chance of getting a question right while guessing is 25%

Also you don't average the percent of all the questions. In order to find the probability of winning solely off of guessing you would take 25% of 25% of 25% of 25% of 25% of 25% etc etc.

Basically 1/4^15

>> No.5564355

>>5564254
>>5564265
the arithmetic foundations i learned in school are now crumbling