/sci/ - Science & Math

[Anonymous No.4972031]

If you flip a coin 2 times in a row and gets heads twice you would agree that the chance for this to happen is 50% probability. And if you flip it a third time it is 25% chance for heads and 75% chance for tails.

BUT.. if you wait one year and then flip the same coin, will it still be 25% chance for heads?

And what if you change the coin? Will the outcome still be the same of will it be reset?

This really grinds my gears.

[Anonymous No.4972039]

Depends on how many other coins you have flipped in the interim.

[Anonymous No.4972041]

>And if you flip it a third time it is 25% chance for heads and 75% chance for tails.
no, its 50-50. why would you think something else? gamblers falasy. the events arnt related.

[Anonymous No.4972047]

Changing the coin resets the odds back to 50% which is why newly minted coins are used to solve disputes in sporting events to keep everything fair

[Anonymous No.4972052]

Are you the WWTBAM troll?

[Anonymous No.4972053]

>>4972039
I only flipped this coin the two times.

>>4972041
No. The probability to win three times in a row is 25%.

[Anonymous No.4972050]

>>4972031
>If you flip a coin 2 times in a row and gets heads twice you would agree that the chance for this to happen is 50% probability.

No its 25%

[EK !EKFnQG0UBo No.4972054]

>If you flip a coin 2 times in a row and gets heads twice you would agree that the chance for this to happen is 50% probability.
no, chance of 2 heads in a row is 25% chance. same as any 2 flip combination.

>And if you flip it a third time it is 25% chance for heads and 75% chance for tails.
erm, no. each flip is 50% chance heads and 50% chance tails.

>And what if you change the coin?
doesnt matter, should still be 50% (pretty much)

>Will the outcome still be the same of will it be reset?
it's always reset
see >>4972041

>gamblers fallacy.

[EK !EKFnQG0UBo No.4972057]

>>4972052
oh fuck, yeh i reckon it is

[Anonymous No.4972056]

>>4972054
tripfags getting trolled 2012 what else is new

[EK !EKFnQG0UBo No.4972059]

>>4972056
w/e, fuck off

[Anonymous No.4972060]

>>4972053
ok watever, im out.

[Anonymous No.4972069]

ok i ment just two of the same in a row, either heads or tails. that is 50% because theres 4 possible outcomes: 1. heads + tails, 2. heads + heads, 3. tails + heads, 4. tails + tails. these possibilities has a 25% possible outcome each, which means 50% for two in a row, either heads or tails.

[EK !EKFnQG0UBo No.4972077]

>>4972069
well, yeh.

[Anonymous No.4972083]

And I'm not trolling.

[Anonymous No.4972084]

Gambler's fallacy, Monte Carlo fallacy, etc.

http://www.fallacyfiles.org/gamblers.html

[Carl No.4972086]

>>4972083
I sure hope so. Trolling outside of /b/ would be a bannable offense.

[Anonymous No.4972089]

MAKE ME UNDERSTAAAND

[Anonymous No.4972091]

>>4972077
You confound me.

You post nothing of use, are constantly banned, but the second you are able you return.

Why? You can't possibly like this board, else you wouldn't constantly Shit post. You know you will be inevitably thrown out again. You must realise noone respects your opinions.

[EK !EKFnQG0UBo No.4972092]

>>4972086

[Anonymous No.4972119]

I know you might think that each coin flip is independent of any other flip, but you must agree that the chance of winning three times in a row is less that winning 2 times.

[Anonymous No.4972124]

In other words:
It is 50-50 which side it lands on, but for it to land on the same side three times in a row is less.

[Anonymous No.4972134]

I thought /sci/ was better that this, I guess I was wrong.

[Anonymous No.4972155]

I know you're trolling but,

There's 50% chance for tail and 50% chance for head every single fucking time. The coin does not have a memory.

We do have the Big Numbers Law, stating that heads and tail will be ~0,5 when n is big enough.

This is cancer to /sci/

[Anonymous No.4972176]

>>4972155
50% isn't a big number, so the big number law doesn't apply here.

[Anonymous No.4972183]

It's always a 50% chance every time you flip it. It can come up heads 100 times and the next time you flip the coin, even if you wait ten years, it will still be a 50% probability it will come up heads. Or tails.

Goddamn. Sometimes this fucking board reminds me of /b/.

[Anonymous No.4972208]

Depends on a lot of things ( mass of coin) a heavier coin will spin slower and thus have a higher probability of landing on the same side over and over. Not a huge difference but maybe enough to go from 50-50 to 60-40 or 70-30.

[Anonymous No.4973673]

no fuck ya, previous results have no effect on future results, go to the roulette wheel with your theory and tell me how it works out for you, the casino will love you.

[Anonymous No.4974108]

>>4972031
You're face grinds my gears.

You always have a 50% chance of head each flip.
The chance of you flipping it heads three times in a row is (50%)^3 or 12.5%
If you've already flipped it heads twice, the odds of that were (50%)^2 or 25%, but the third flip is always going to be a 50% chance of heads.

[Anonymous No.4974350]

>>4972047
please don't write any bullshit;
probability is hard enough for some people,
they don't need someone to invent silly factors like 'experience' into the coin itself.

[Anonymous No.4974376]

If you're gonna flip two coins, there are four possible outcomes, all with equal probability. Now if you flip the coin, you exclude two of those possible outcomes, so what you're left with is two possible outcomes with the same probability, namely 50%.

[Anonymous No.4974374]

>>4972176
I suppose you thought that was like thinking; it was a bad attempt

the Big Numbers principle applies to the iterations (how many times you attempt the flip), not to the odds.

[Carl No.4974379]

How is this thread still alive?