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/sci/ - Science & Math

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4832800 No.4832800 [Reply] [Original]

This was posted on /pol/ and they almost all chose one answer, just wanted to see what people who have actually sat some mathematics courses would chose

>> No.4832828

>>4832800

It really depends on the risk/reward of pressing the button. If I am extremely rich, making $1mil wont change my life too much, but $100mil would affect anyone, so I would go with the 50%.

If I am poor, I would go for the $1mil, because I have much more to gain from $1mil than a rich person.

Put another way, if these two buttons are presented to me (middle class), but it's $2 vs $200, I would pick the $200, because I am now the "rich person", whereas to someone in Africa, where $2 might be enough to buy a year's worth of seeds and allow them to farm, the $2 would be a better choice.

>> No.4832832

Yes

>> No.4832834

no

>> No.4832836

The answer is simple. Press both buttons.

>implying there are rules

>> No.4832837

Right now, i would take the instant 1 mil, because it's far more than i currently have, and I'm sure I could turn $1 mil into more without much difficulty.

>> No.4832838

100x the prize, for a 50% risk.

Of course I'd take the green button.

>> No.4832842 [DELETED] 

>>4832838

>you hit the button, nothing happens
>I hit the button, my life is completely changed

Good decision.

>> No.4832846

>>4832828
THIS

There is diminishing returns with wealth. The millionth dollar is more valuable than the million and first dollar.

That said, I'm not amazingly well off, but I'd still choose the $100 million option. I'd give the vast majority of it to charity.

>> No.4832845

The correct answer depends on the individual willingness of each person to accept risk. Different people could choose different buttons and they could have both have made the correct choice.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_premium

>> No.4832850

Green button

>> No.4832855

What did /pol/ choose

>> No.4832862

>>4832846
>I'd give the vast majority of it to charity.
What a fucking waste.
If I won the money I'd have a life size replica Gundam.

>> No.4832859

>>4832855

They all chose the red button

>> No.4832865

higher net with green
of course amount of $ isn't directly related to amount of pleasure

I would pick red for this reason

>> No.4832869

Assume I could only pick one, the red one; I'm not trying to maximize average reward, I'm trying to maximize the worst case reward.

But if I was part of a group of people, all whom got to push the button, I would try to get everyone to agree to split the rewards equally, and then get most of us to choose the green button.

>> No.4832870

Green button. Even if I were poor. I would make an agreement with some richfag. If I lose, he gives me 2 millions. If I win, I give him 50 millions and keep 50 millions.

So even if I lose I still win compared to red button

Ignore the numbers, the point is the concept.

>> No.4832873

Poor, red.
Rich, green.

>> No.4832875

>>4832855

>>>/pol/3991911

seems to be pretty well divided

>> No.4832878

green, if i get it, ill be happy, if not, ill just carry on, no biggie

>> No.4832881

>>4832845
No. I have had it with this subjective risk bullshit. The expected utility may be different for the same option between different people, but it doesn't make sense to say that it's logical that either option is equally valid. That is bullshit.
Either an option is optimal, given a set of conditions, or it isn't. Two different people making the same choice under the same conditions cannot make different decisions and both have their actions labelled "correct".

Also, fuck it, green button.

>> No.4832879

>>4832870

>you lose
>rich fag says "why should I pay you shit"

>> No.4832884
File: 13 KB, 320x413, biggie-smalls.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
4832884

i'll take a guaranteed mil

mo' money, mo' problems

>> No.4832883

>>4832879
>Implying I wouldn't sign a contract

>> No.4832887

There's a lot of retards in here assuming shit like "if i was rich" or "id make a deal with a rich guy".

The offer is given to you RIGHT NOW, and is valid for 1 minute. Which button do you choose?

I would pick red because I'm a little bitch.

>> No.4832893

Green. No doubt.

1 million won't change my life. Maybe I'll get a new house, but that's it

100 million will change my house for sure.

>> No.4832890

RISK IS LIFE BABBYS

GREEN IS GO

>> No.4832892

Also, to those who said green, if your post ends in an odd number, you won the 100 mil. If even (or 0), you lost.

>> No.4832899

>>4832893
>win a million dollars
>buy a new house

and then you idiots call the "rich" undeserving?

>> No.4832896

I take the red button, pay off my student loans, pay off my mortgage, and invest most of what's left. Best case scenario I turn ~$1 million into $10 million and so on over the next few years. Worst case I'm debt free and still substantially better off then I was before pressing the button.


What can I say... I'm boring and pragmatic

>> No.4832906

>>4832893

>1 million won't change my life. Maybe I'll get a new house, but that's it

The fuck are you talking about you idiot, you're probably earning 30k as we speak and still paying off a mortgage.

>> No.4832910

>>4832883

>I, anon, will press one of two buttons, one of which will magically gift me $1 million, and the other has a 50% chance magically gifting me $100 million, or nothing.
>John Cheney Bush Exxon Mobile, being of sound mind, has agreed to pay me....

lol

>> No.4832911

High ro-ller roll a little higher

>> No.4832909

>>4832892
> If even (or 0)
Are you implying 0 isn't an even number? Did I just get trolled?

>> No.4832914

>>4832906
>Thinks everybody is poor

>> No.4832915

>>4832909

>silly rabbit!

>> No.4832918

>>4832914

>thinks 4chan isn't dominated by 18-24 year old college students (aside from /b/ and /v/)
>thinks it's cool to live off his parents money

>> No.4832933

I would sell the green button for 90 Million
get on my level plebs

>> No.4832935

I would hit the green button.

If nothing else, so I wouldn't have to always wonder "What if?".

And once that $1m is gone, yes, you will be asking that question.

>> No.4832936

>>4832881
>>No. I have had it with this subjective risk bullshit. The expected utility may be different for the same option between different people, but it doesn't make sense to say that it's logical that either option is equally valid. That is bullshit.

It is possible for more than one option to be "the best"; see "Pareto optimal".
>>Either an option is optimal, given a set of conditions, or it isn't. Two different people making the same choice under the same conditions cannot make different decisions and both have their actions labelled "correct".

Different people have different goals; since the definition of "correct" depends on what goal they are trying to achieve, two people can make different decisions and still both be correct.

>> No.4832947

I would take the green one. the red one isn't worth the effort. I mean 1 million niggerdollars, lawl

>> No.4832945

>>4832933
>implying anyone would buy it

>> No.4832949

>>4832936
>Different people have different goals
True, but this is already taken into account by the utility function. There's no need to add in another factor for "risk adversity" or whatever unless you're trying to model real-people behavior whose decision-making process may be incoherent. I don't think that's the goal here; here we just want to make better decisions about this imaginary situation.

(not >>4832881)

>> No.4832958

>mfw everybody assumed that with the green button the alternative is $0.
>mfw this is incomplete info
>hitting that red button because I always know what happesn
>dat ambiguity aversion

>> No.4832959

Green. Either I walk away one fucking happy son-of-a-bitch- or I continue with my life, disappointed, but Ill get over it.

>> No.4832964

~~~~WINNERS~~~~
>>4832947
>>4832935
>>4832893
>>4832881

~~~~LOSERS~~~~
>>4832838
>>4832850
>>4832870
>>4832878
>>4832890

>> No.4832965

It would be better if it was 50% chance you get the $100 million, 50% chance you die.
>implying I wouldn't still pick green

>> No.4832967
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4832967

/pol/ behaved predictably.

The original thread: >>3994241

One with the same odds but different rewards: >>3991911

>> No.4832970

why would people with math knowledge make a 'better' choice

it's not like this is even a probability problem

>> No.4832973

>>4832949
Hmm... okay, looking at
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_premium
it doesn't seem like they're adding any "risk adversity" factors in. Being risk-neutral is just having a linear utility function. So there doesn't appear to be any real disagreement here.

>> No.4832978

Who says you only have to choose 1? OP says "they (/pol/)almost all chose one answer" implies that /pol/ was jumping to conclusion about being able to only press 1 button. OP didnt state any rules, however he does say that choosing 1 answer is what majority chose.

So the obvious solution is to press both buttons and you win with 1 million regardless. If you win the other 100 million as well, more power to you. I thought /sci/ would be smarter/perceptive than /pol/. What a let down /sci/ was

>> No.4832979

who knew 4chan would be the new frontier for behavioral field work

>> No.4832980

Expected outcome isn't the only relevant factor here. The amount of money you already have matters too.

>> No.4832989

>>4832800
if it's taxless then 1Mil.
After 3.5 year it be at 75Mil

>> No.4832995

For multiple "presses" it makes sense to do expected return-type calculations, for which the green button would obviously maximize. But for one press, it really only makes sense to press the red button. That's how everything works, folks. Probability is only really useful for many, many trials (cf thermodynamics). Otherwise it's just gambling and faggotry.

>> No.4833007

Simple:
Observe the system long enough to watch multiple people press the green button.
Build up a hidden markov, press the green button.

If it's pure random, then red button. I'm fucking poor and $1mil could take me pretty far.

>> No.4833028

right now? 1 mil

can quit my job and spend time looking for one that is much better whilst living off interest.

>> No.4833042

I'd take the instant million. I could buy a house or a business for that much, combine it with what I already have saved and I wouldn't need to work for reasons outside my own enjoyment ever again.

>> No.4833045

Me and my friends all hit the green button and split the pot

>> No.4833046

That $1 will set me for life...I can finally move out and live in a comfortable apartment and live off ramen and pizza and die at the age of 40 from a heart attack.

>> No.4833050

Choose red:

Get decent education go into field I love , eventually lose all money after 10-15 years but by the I'm all set.

Go Green:

If I win:
Get some gold digger wife , do whatever the fuck I want for the rest of my life.Probably die early due to lazyness and lack of real purpose.


If I lose:
Go into field I love but spend my years in school in poverty, likely have to settle for shitty job while I look for one in my field, have to pay of tons of student debt.


1 mil is pretty much the best option no matter what, it's just low enough that I have to get off my ass to work for my future but high enough I have some lee way.

100 mil leaves me apathetic and living a pleasurable but ultimately meaningless life.

>> No.4833058

Definitely the red button. I live simply and know that I couldn't live the rest of my life off of $1 million - which is a good thing. Too much luxury is a soul killer.

I'd buy some land, possibly a more fuel efficient car, and continue doing my PhD. as usual. All I want is some property with forest, maybe a stream or pond, a giant garden, some chickens and whatnot, etc. I'm good after that.

>> No.4833060

I had a million before. Am poor again. Too easy to misspend.

I think I could be a little more careful with 100mil

>> No.4833057

Push the 100M$ twice

>> No.4833061

AS A MATH STUDENT, I WOULD PICK RED.

>> No.4833100

Lets just put the green button in a closed box and rig something up with a piece of radioactive material. Then just seal it up real good and be happy with the $50 million.

>> No.4833116

for a poor NEET or high school/college student, a tax-free mill instantly fast forwards them financially 15-25 years. It is absolutely life changing. The answer depends largely on your current financial situation. If you are a homeless fuck on the streets in the process of starving, anything other than a million is virtually wrong. If you are a billionaire anything other than 100 million is objectively wrong. For most people in between the correct choice is dependent and subjective.

That said, give me green and give me odds!

>> No.4833122

Add a yellow button. It has a 90% chance of giving you 55 million and a 10% chance of giving you nothing. All you greenfags, do you choose this one now?

>> No.4833123
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4833123

>not disclosing the individual's discount factor

>> No.4833139

If I was mathematician who is completely out of touch with this world, I would press the green button. You have an equal chance of netting 1 million less than what you would have got for the red button as well as 99 million more the other way. It's a no brainer really, especially if this experiment is to be repeated many times because every time you press the green button you're essentially getting 50 million dollars.

Since I'm poor, I would definitely choose the green button if this was presented to me in real life.

>> No.4833147

Eh, I wouldn't feel challenged if I got $100 million. Probably turn me lazy and waste all my money.
$1 million could pay for my entire schooling and a home.

>> No.4833165

>>4832800
press both buttons repeatedly. I have two hands after all.

>> No.4833167

>>4832800
for someone like me who is in a household with an income of 800k a year, I would choose the green button. the red would be a little more than a year of work, but it wouldn't dramatically effect my life since really I don't need the money. If I manage to get the 100mil, then I would have a dramatic change in my life. If I walk away with nothing, I can walk away with no hard feelings.

>> No.4833171

>>4833167
800k?
Damn. What do you do?

>> No.4833175

>>4832800
I'm extremely poor, and I'm human. So my irrational human answer is red 1,mil. My cerebral intelligent response is green 0.5*100,mil. The expected payoff of 50,mil > 1,mil.

>> No.4833176

>1 million
>50% 100 million

a million of what????

have any of you even bothered to ask that question?

>> No.4833181

>>4833171
I'm a programmer, wife works for google, and a friend that lives with us works for ibm.

>> No.4833180

>>4833057
i like this answer

>> No.4833185

>>4833176
Did you not see the $?

>> No.4833187

Red button.

Red button gets you a bit less than $350,000 in taxes, leaving you with $650k.

Pay off house & debts, still have to work for a living but you get to keep most of what you earn. You can afford to invest in retirement and you aren't so stressed about losing a job. Guaranteed freedom.

>> No.4833191

>>4833181
Do you make the most? Where did you go to university?

>> No.4833193

>>4833181
Sounds like a bad sitcom

>> No.4833195

>>4832873
smart=red
brave/stupid=green

>> No.4833196

If this is on a game show, then you take the $1,000,000. Screw the math, if you know anything about Psychology (which none of /sci/ does), the people who make these games know that if you're called on you'll pick the 50% one because you don't want to appear boring in front of a huge audience, and picking a safe bet is boring to audiences on game shows.
Fuck them, $1,000,000.

>> No.4833204

>>4833196
Then I guess the gameshow is also ready to give up an average of 50 mill every single game. Sounds expensive on their part. For them, the absolute WORST option is for you to pick green.

>> No.4833209

>>4833204
Well obviously this man realises that a popular gameshow will make MUCH MORE than 50 million dollars in advertising every episode.
Hahahahahahaha

>> No.4833223

This remember me the Schrödinger's cat thing, so what the hell? the green button

>> No.4833227

I'd take the green just because.

>> No.4833236

>>4833191
I actually make the least, but I work from home and for only 30 hours a week. weekends are always off and I take all holidays off.

I dropped out of Elon U after 1 year cause I started free-lance programming during that year. I was lucky really. I wouldn't recommend everybody to drop out.

>> No.4833283

>>4832892

Zero has to be even for it to be 1:1.

Rollin'

>> No.4833303

Red for me, absolutely.

And I'm already upper-middle class. Another million dollars would just about double my life savings.

Yeah, I know that green has a much higher expected payoff. But it's not about the math. According to math, a lake could be an average of 1 foot deep, but you can still drown in it if you happen to be in the deep section. That average don't mean shit if you're drowned.

>> No.4833385

>>4833236
where'd your wife and friend go to uni?
how much do you make doing free lance work?

>> No.4833392

I won't press any buttons. Money has to be earned.

>> No.4833411

>>4832892
okay

>> No.4833414

>>4833303
how the fuck is that lake shaped if its average depth is 1 foot?

>> No.4833454

>>4833303
>According to math, a lake could be an average of 1 foot deep, but you can still drown in it if you happen to be in the deep section
Wow, retarded.

>> No.4833459

>>4833454
How is that retarded?

>> No.4833490

How would you even handle a 100 million dollars.

I have 1 bank account and no knowledge in savings/investments.

I would take the million as a million with help me right now, where a 100 million will be a chore.

I am also very cheap.

>> No.4833513

>>4833385
wife went to Carnegie Mellon. I'm not sure where my friend went. I never asked him.

I make 100 - 200 k per year. it depends on how many jobs I take. this year I've already taken 2 weeks off, so it will probably be closer to 100k.

My friend is moving out soon, so I suppose I should do a bit more work to cushon the loss of income, but really idc about money. we make so much more than we spend anyway.

>> No.4833517
File: 103 KB, 269x239, awww.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
4833517

>>4833454

>> No.4833523

Just press the red button 100 times. Done

>> No.4833583

Red button, without hesitation.

I would work some crap job for at least 20k a year to pay bills and food. Maybe use about 30-40k of my million each year and have a good chunk of in low-risk investments for retirement. Take a year long sabbatical every five years.

Holly shit, I'm so white.

>> No.4833591

EV(1M) = 1*1M + 0*1M = 1M

EV(100M) = .5*100M + .5*0 = 50M

The green button holds 50 times the EV. If you chose red, kill yourself

>> No.4833596

50% chance of 100 million.

>> No.4833599

> implying I would press either button

>> No.4833600

With one million dollars I could probably be set for life. No reason for 100 million but greed, and I'm not going to risk getting 0 dollars for that. Especially since my chance of walking away from this event without winning anything would be 50%.

>> No.4833604

Well the expected value of the green is higher but I'd still go with red. The reason being that 1$ Million would be enough for me while 100$ million would just be excessive. The simple model assumes a flat value for money when in reality money becomes less important a factor in your happiness the more you have of it.

>> No.4833612

>>4833591
I don't care about the EV. There's a 50% chance I end up with nothing and I could have 1million dollars. I want 1million dollars. That's enough for me. I personally value it more.

For someone that makes maybe 500k/year then 1million dollars isn't that much and they'd choose green.

but I think a million fucking dollars is worth a lot to most people

>> No.4833614

>>4833600
>With one million dollars I could probably be set for life.

unless you know.... you need more then 1 million dollars in life saving surgery or whatever to survive.

>> No.4833631

>>4832881
>Either an option is optimal, given a set of conditions

I think he was trying to say that each person has his own set of conditions

>> No.4833643

So what, green is supposed to be the "right" choice because expectation value is the absolute greatest metric for anything ever?

Imagine you're playing a game where you roll a fair die and you win if the result is 1, 2, 3, or 4 (a 2/3 chance of winning, hurr durr). The first round you play, the prize is $1, but after you win you can choose to play double or nothing with the same rules, and as long as you keep winning you can keep choosing to go double or nothing. So to say it again, after every win you can either play for double or nothing, or you can walk away with your money.

So should you go for the double or nothing? The expectation for just taking the current winnings is X, while the expectation for the double or nothing is 4/3 X. You may see where I'm going with this. If your strategy is just to maximize your expectation, you'll always do double or nothing. That means you'll never leave with the money; the only two results are that you keep playing forever, or that you eventually lose and walk away with nothing. And the probability of losing is 1 if you play forever.

Fuck expectation values.

>> No.4833672

I'd hit the red.

>> No.4833666

>>4833643
Your example is bad because you introduce external values (e.g., will i spend the money? how valuable is the time i spend obtaining the money? how long will i live? etc.).

>> No.4833710

>>4833666
Time spent is really irrelevant to my point. If it bugs you, then I'll simplify things. I ask you how many times you're willing to go double or nothing (infinity is an acceptable answer; let's say success will give you legal dominion over everything in the entire universe, but again, the probability of success is 0), and I just run my infinite precision random number generator (just work with me on this) to see if you win or lose. Now it all takes the same amount of time no matter how many simulated games you choose to play.

If you want to argue about subjective value or marginal utility, then that's pretty much my whole point.

>> No.4833797

Green, no question.
Without a doubt, 1 million would be great. But I'm living an average life going to college and whatever, 1 million would pay off everything I have right now and then eventually get a house and car debt free. But besides that i would continue to live the life I'm already on track to do.
But 100 million? That would change everything. You would be in the top 10,000 richest people in the world. You would never have to work again, and do anything you want. It would be infinitely different and better. If I lose then I just do what I am doing anyway, and if I win my world is turned upside down for the better.
Also, i love reading poor people talking about giving most to charity. Lol ya i'm sure you would.

>> No.4833921

I'm not so into sharity. They mostly don't effect real changes in the world. And real change is expensive. You can't do it with 1 mil. So I'd hit the green button, because it's my only chance of having enough wealth and power to do something worthwhile

Also I'd hit the button several dozen times and laugh at all you fags who only press one button once

>> No.4833942

Red. Guaranteed money that I can pay for college with, buy a plot of land out West, and invest frugally.

>> No.4834000

>>4833797
If you can't manage to never work again with $1 million, you live really unnecessarily inefficiently.

I'd take the certain $1 million and invest the fuck out of it. A 10% rate of return on one's investments is considered pathetic; I'd happy accept my pathetic annual $100,000.

>> No.4834246

>>4834000
>A 10% rate of return on one's investments is considered pathetic
you don't know much about investment do you?

>> No.4834312

Small but reliable amounts are better than a big gamble. Nickle and diming exists for this reason.

>> No.4834408

50% chance consistently always sums down to no chance at all. You need at least a 75% chance in order for any series of chances to continue to have an equal percentage chance to break even.

>> No.4834421

>>4832862
>>4832846
Both of you are dumb, I would put the money into the advanced space telescope project up on indiegogo

>> No.4834447

Ask the pokemon board what they think.

Just do it.

>> No.4834531

id press the green one, because the potential profit is much higher than then loss which is 0..

>> No.4834566

>>4832800
May have been posted already, but I call up my local futures broker and offer him the outcome of my green button press for $40m and haggle from there.

>> No.4834600

I'd choose the sure thing, honestly. Yes, 50 50 odds, but ultimately that first million is worth a lot more to me than the 99 million past that.

>> No.4834658

Green button.

1 million dollars simply isn't enough capital to invest to reach the point where your returns net you a comfortable life and the rest can be added back into the principle. At best you could buy a house, a nice car, maybe marry the girl next door and get a good degree, but you wouldn't ever be free of work or financial obligation.

The red button levels you up (everything gets slightly nicer), but you don't evolve with it (your overall situation and life arc doesn't really change).

But with 100 Million you're now looking at true upper class type wealth. You'll never have to work a day in your life, you can marry the gorgeous and smart woman of your dreams, you can buy a nice car every year if you want, houses are merely icing on the real estate you buy.

But more importantly: you can affect change around you and have the money to keep doing so. You can start research into the things that interest you, in other words buying all the work and stress of the people who chose the red button. Your compounding principle means you should be able to outpace inflation and hit billionaire status within 15 years or less. Your children will inherit this wealth meaning they will all start off better then the people who choose the red button.

Pragmatism is a virtue, but it can blind you to the bigger picture at times.

>> No.4834665

>Get a group of people together
>Promise to pool all of the money we get and split it evenly if we all press green
>All press green
>10 people with a $500million pool
>$50million each

Come on bro. At least make it 50% chance of 2-3million.

>> No.4834686
File: 13 KB, 300x300, facepalm.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
4834686

All of you forgot to take into account tax.

>> No.4834708

if this post is under 50 i win $100 million
>inb4 /sci/ is a slow board

>> No.4834742

>>4834000

you must have never invested any appreciable amount of money or at all i dare say.

>> No.4834794

>>4833513
Your friend is banging your wife.

>> No.4834821

>>4834686
This is a fucking magical instant money button.

>> No.4834876

IT'S THE COLOR! THE COLOR!

>> No.4834932

The red button is the only choice.

If you can't take $1 million and turn it into a business and portfolio that will have you set for life and quite possibly be worth more than $100 million after a few years of growth, you'll just end up with nothing after a few years even if you do win the $100 million.

>> No.4834952

Red button: <span class="math">100\%\ 10^6 = 10^6[/spoiler]
Green button: <span class="math">50\%\ 10^{8}, 50\%\ 10^{-Infinity} = 10^\frac{8 - Infinity}{2} = 10^{-Infinity} = 0[/spoiler]

Of course red button.

>> No.4834961

>>4834952
Explain this math to me, even if it is trolling.

>> No.4834969

Red
a chance is a chance, but 1mil is still a lot

>> No.4834970

Math says that green button is a better choice.

But this is a better explanation >>4832828

>> No.4835108

>>4834961
The green button is worse than the red button.

1. $100 million is only 100 times as much as $1 million.
2. $0 is infinitely times less than $1 million.

>> No.4835121

>>4834821
>implying magical money would be valid in a real world.
Then again considering they're dollars you could just say god gave them to you in the US, people would believe you.

>> No.4835136

I would press the green button. But first I would make a bet that I don't win the $100 million. If I win the $100 million I'd have to pay $80 million betting debts. But if I don't win the $100 million I would win $20 million. So after all I would have $20 million. That's better than $1 million and also without any risk.

>> No.4835140

1 million 100% = 1 million
100 million 50% = 50 million

>> No.4835167

Green button because why not

>> No.4835175
File: 194 KB, 435x327, spidyfsense.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
4835175

>>4834794
if you say so.

>> No.4835176

I would hit the green button, and if I won, give half of it to my friend who would also press the green button. Hopefully, vice versa if I lost/he won.

>> No.4835186

The red button op, where am I cashing?

>> No.4835192

public int[] mergeSort(int[] unSort) {
if (unSort.length == 1) {
return

>> No.4835199
File: 134 KB, 1050x803, capitalism.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
4835199

i would sell 100 million shares in green button's win at 45 cents a share, then press it

>> No.4835224

For the retards who use
"hurr durr 100*10^6*0.5>1*10^6" argument yes it is that way if you had infinite amount of button presses. However, for a single-instance occurence like this, red is superior unless $1m is insignificant to you (i.e. you are really rich).

>> No.4835296

>>4835224
Money is not proportionate to utility, so the benefit of $1,000,000 may indeed be more than half of the $100,000,000. However, I think I'd be more than twice as happy at finding out I have $100,000,000 than finding out I have $1,000,000, so I'd choose the latter.

>> No.4835341

>>4835296
You will also be 100,000 times as disappointed when you DON'T win.

Why don't you fucktards consider that possibility?

>> No.4835354

Red button.

I am a humble person.

>> No.4835369

Red button, so as not to risk a loss. The net gain to me to have $100m rather than $1m is inconceivable, and thus not worth the risk.

>> No.4835378

press both over and over and over.

>> No.4835386

instant million

house
car
motorcycle
boat
maybe a little cessna

and i'm set for life

>> No.4835429

Well, these questions are the ones you should be asking yourselves:

- How long will it take me to earn 1 million dollars?

- How long will it take me to earn 99 million dollars?

>> No.4835437
File: 45 KB, 299x300, 1339686278175.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
4835437

>>4832933
>spend 90 million
>50% to get all your money back

>> No.4835447

>>4835437
50million would be a lot more logical.

>> No.4835452

>>4835447

Ten million would make even more sense since there is even greater incentive, thus a significantly larger pool of potential buyers.

>> No.4835459

>>4835447
>>4835452
Some billionaire would easily buy it for 50m.

>> No.4835456

>>4835452
I'd settle with 25 then.

>> No.4835474

gogo green!

>> No.4835487

>press red button
>invest
>instant $100 million

I win

>> No.4835505

With 1 million I wouldn't have to work ever again.

>> No.4835522

1 million will give me a house and some luxuries, it's not even a million in my national currency. It wont affect my freedom that much, in terms of how much I'll want to work and travel. Considering I'll still feel pressured to work in the same way, I could make a million on my own.

50 million would change my life situation.

Also 1 million would help me but wouldn't mean much to my family, it wouldn't even be enough to buy them better houses.

So green.

>> No.4835568

>>4835522
a million is worth 25,000 hours of work at my current rate of pay.

25,000 hours is the amount of work i do in 10 years

a million means 10 years of total leisure

>> No.4835643

>>4832935

If you opt for the green button and fail, you will be setting yourself up for a lifetime of wondering "what could I have done with that million dollars?"

>> No.4835646

>>4832800
How many times do I get to push the button?
My first push will always be Instant $1 Million.
All subsequent pushes will be 50% chance of $100 Million.

>> No.4835683

There's also a factor of an individual's past experience with luck. I have shit luck so I would press the red button rather than walk away with nothing.

>> No.4835707

Instant $1 million of course. I can just invest them into some of my projects which will pay off a hundred times or more over time.

>> No.4835717

>>4835683
1/10

>> No.4835736

>>4835707

It would take you 48 years to get $100 million assuming you got 10% on your investments every year.

It would take you 26 years to get $100 million assuming an annual return of 20% on your investments.

>> No.4835748

>>4835736
That's not a problem.

>> No.4835752

>>4835736
those are wildly high returns, especially as they are, i assume, inflation adjusted

>> No.4835763

>>4832892
> if your post ends in an odd number, you won the 100 mil. If even (or 0), you lost.
> if even (or 0)

>> No.4835768

a million would be enough to pay off all my debts, buy a new house, new car, and live comfortably for a couple of years.
i don't really need 100 million.

>> No.4835771

green
#YOLO
lol

>> No.4835794

>>4835768
for a hundred million i could buy an island and decree there a pleasure palace, populated with teenage slave-whores.

u jelly?

>> No.4835822

>>4832800
The utility of money is logarithmic. The first million is worth more than the second million. Hence, picking a sure 1 mil is rationally better than 50% chance to win 2 mil.
But 100 mil is 100x more, and a million isn't as much as it used to be. The first is a surefire way to improve your lifestyle. The second is a fifty percent chance to live a dream. I'd go for #2. But neither option should be considered rationally better than the other.

>> No.4835838

>all these people saying you'll regret it when the 1 million runs out
You could just invest it, and even if you just get 5% on it, that's 50k a year from doing shit all.

>> No.4835834

>>4835822
as money can be exchanged 1-1 with people for whom it has more/less utility this is untrue. see >>4835199

>> No.4835835

You can comfortably live off the interest of your $1 million for the rest of your life. There isn't any reason to favor the $100 million if all you want is to live comfortably.

>> No.4835844

>>4835835
but i want a gold meka-suit and have people tremble at my power

>> No.4835882
File: 25 KB, 400x352, 77.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
4835882

> Free money
> Wow, I'll take it, no questions asked.

No wonder our economy is so fucked up.

>> No.4835889

>>4835838

How do you get 5% returns?

>> No.4835895

>>4835834
If you do that, then that's obviously the best choice.
However, it is implied that this scenario happens in a vacuum, and you can't cover your risks in advance.
The fact that the utility of money is logarithmic in nature is the very reason that risk sharing, insurance and investments actually work.

>> No.4835915

>>4835889
REIT

>> No.4835930

>>4835915

But you might lose the money

>> No.4835956

>>4835930
welcome to anything doing better than savings interest

>> No.4835969

>>4835956
If you are willing to take a risk with your million, then why pick the million?

>> No.4835975

My answers
1: Push both buttons.
2: Push the red button 100 times.
3: Punch the guy in the face and steal the 101 million.

>> No.4835982

>>4835956
>>4835969

Exactly. It makes no sense to risk your future livelihood for 5% returns.

>> No.4836047

It's simple, use expected value:
v*p = Expected Value, where v is value and p is the probability of the given value
$1000000*1 = $1000000
$100000000*0.5 = $50000000
Therefore, the green button is the best.

>> No.4836054

For a moment i was really affraid no one would talk about utility function and such...

Left one for me.

>> No.4836053

>>4836047
>Does not compute opportunity cost
>Takes expected revenue as utility
>2012
The board may have you believe otherwise, but economy actually did develop a bit since the 1950's.

>> No.4836071

risk vs reward.

I could make a mill in 7-15 years of investments and doing my job.

I could not make 100 Mill ever unless I gained godly luck.

I would hit the Green in 30 seconds of thinking.

>> No.4836073

>>4835835
>You can comfortably live off the interest of your $1 million for the rest of your life
that's pushing it a bit. assuming a consistent 5% rate of interest returns (which is pretty high, frankly, considering current bond yields) only gives you about $50k per annum. less the 15% in taxes (in the US, anywhere from 20-45% in the UK) and you're not really talking a particularly large amount of money.

>> No.4836084

>>4836073

What if you have no job and live off your bank interests?

I heard Americans can live comfortably on $5000 a year.

>> No.4838369

You guys got this all wrong:
Pressing green gives you a 50% chance of lifelong regret,
pressing red gives you lifelong regret with certainty,
because greed.
Even with $1million, after a few months you'll all be thinking about that big yacht next to your pretty little new yacht (or whatever rocks your boat).