/sci/ - Science & Math

[Anonymous No.4621537]

In the US...
<span class="math">P(In jail) = 2,418,352/(309*10^6) [/spoiler]
<span class="math">P(Black)=38,929,319/(309*10^6) [/spoiler]
<span class="math">P(Black | In Jail) = (4,347+260)/100,000 [/spoiler]
Bayes' theorem:
<span class="math">P(In Jail| Black) = \frac{P(Black | In Jail) P(In Jail)}{P(Black)} =0.00286194 [/spoiler]
<span class="math">P(White) = 223,553,265/(309*10^6) [/spoiler]
<span class="math">P(White | In Jail) = (678+91)/10,000 [/spoiler]
<span class="math">P(In Jail | White) = \frac{P(White | In Jail) P(In Jail)}{P(White)}=0.000831888 [/spoiler]
<span class="math"> \frac{P(In Jail| Black)}{(In Jail | White)} =3.4403 [/spoiler]

You are 3 times more likely to go to jail in you're black.

[Anonymous No.4621544]

[That noob No.4621543]

>implying that racism has nothing to do with this.
Shiggidy digidy

[Filosofer scientist linguist No.4621551]

Yes, it is a function of lower intelligence.

See the paper mentioned and quoted here: http://emilkirkegaard.dk/en/?p=2752

[Anonymous No.4621558]

I find you're much more likely to be in jail if you've run afoul of the law.

[Anonymous No.4621563]

>>4621551
What I am about to say is 100% serious.

If I met you in real life I would literally beat you until you died.

I'm not going to say I am going to kill you. This is ambiguous and vague.

What I would do is simple yet effective. I would literally bludgeon you to death with nothing more than my fists and feet and elbows. I would perform as any painful and horrible acts before you died a slow and painful death.

I understand that your parents may have been brother and sister, but that is no excuse for your bullshit.

[Anonymous No.4621567]

P(InJail | Black)=0.00286194
seems wrong , should be more like 0.02

[Anonymous No.4621570]

>>4621563
You mad, brother?

[Anonymous No.4621576]

>>4621563
I find it amusing that you consider murdering someone because they said something you disagree with a valid option. You should kill yourself as fast as possible.

p.s. I'm not the person you replied to either.

[Anonymous No.4621578]

>>4621567
That's probably P(Has been in Jail | Black)

[Anonymous No.4621584]

>>4621576
Trust me, once you have been alive long as I have, you start to see that value in executing the stupid racist idiots who run amok.

[Anonymous No.4621585]

>>4621584
Trust me he says.

[Filosofer scientist linguist No.4621590]

>>4621563
There is a pretty good response to that:

More realism, less moralizing.

http://emilkirkegaard.dk/en/wp-content/uploads/J.-Philippe-Rushton-Arthur-R.-Jensen-WANTED-MORE-RACE
-REALISM-LESS-MORALISTIC-FALLACY.pdf

The data are pretty clear in regards to IQ and crime. It is pretty much perfectly predicted with regards to population mean IQ as shown in the Gordon paper I linked to.

[Anonymous No.4621598]

>>4621584

Trust me, once you have been alive long as I have, you start to see that value in executing the stupid liberal idiots who run amok.

[Anonymous No.4621600]

>>4621598
>liberal idiots
Oxymoron
>run amok
[Citation needed]

3/10, would response again.

[Anonymous No.4621626]

But there are quite a lot of blacks in ghetto like conditions.

growing up like that, with that "street" mentality practically assures that you will commit crime and go to prison unless you become actively aware that that's where you're heading if you keep doing the same shit.

it's just a vicious cycle.

[Anonymous No.4621638]

Why does this happen? fucking thug culture they grow up thinking to coolest thing they can be is a drug dealer and a gangster knowing that there are options for them that they dont need to go to school for.

i know some very smart black guys but they are 1/100 kind of guys on track for medical school, straight edge and such and then there fellow blacks bring them down call them uncle toms and say they are acting white. how are they acting white have you met the majority of us guys nowadays? the just smoke weed and drink dont study

support your own damn race and get some better role models

[sage No.4621644]

cool.

did you know that race is the 4th best predictor of crime.

1. age: 15-30 commits nearly all crime
2. sex: men commit most crime
3. $$$: poors crime more than nonpoors
4. race: asian<white<brown<black

are racist supportive of age-discrimination, anti-male discrimination, and $$$-discrimination?
>nope
why not
>they 15-30 poor males

that'll be $400 please

[Anonymous No.4621653]

>>4621644
Five-star post.

[Anonymous No.4621657]

>>4621600
If you live in the US and you think one political party is better than another, you are an idiot.

[Filosofer scientist linguist No.4621661]

>>4621626
Perhaps, but as it turns out, this is not the entire explanation. Pretty much no amount of creative social engineering will remove the discrepancy between US blacks and whites. Sorry.

[Anonymous No.4621664]

>>4621661
>hurrr top-down legislated solutions don't work that means nothing works

[Anonymous No.4621690]

If someone gives me the number of blacks in poverty in jail and the number of whites in poverty in jail I can adjust the calculation to poverty rates making a fairer comparison.

[Anonymous No.4621698]

>>4621644
Well, that's because all the others (age, sex, income) are too general factors which apply to anyone. There are obviously way more young, poor men who don't commit crimes than those who commit them. It's the race factor which nails it.

Regards.

[Anonymous No.4621699]

>>4621644
>>4621644
Roundhouse kicking some racists?
Roundhouse kicking some racists.

[sage No.4621706]

>>4621698
does the general populace have the right to segregate themselves from 15-30 year olds?

we can talk without the trappings of political correctness, thats fine with me.
but you must admit that racism has no positive function.
it doesnt help anyone do anything.

its just a tool for institutions (like govt) to erode individual autonomy.
as a (classical) liberal, thats not cool with me.
your thoughts

[sage No.4621714]

>>4621657
>one political party is better than another

>one political party is different than another
FTFY

seriously, though
obama is the most conservative president ever

obama(drones)>bush(drones)
obama(deportations)>bush(deportations)
obama(weedraids)>bush
obama(antiwhistleblower)>bush
obama(progunleg)>bush

by which metric is obama liberal?

>but he doesnt feel conservative!
so?

[Anonymous No.4621723]

>>4621698
>There are obviously way more young, poor men who don't commit crimes than those who commit them.

Are there way more young, poor black man who don't commit crimes compared to those who do?

[sage No.4621734]

>>4621723

there are 4 crime indicators
>i have 3 but the 4th should be discriminated against

thats all racists have.

[Anonymous No.4621746]

Statistically what non-racists claim is that;
<span class="math">P(In Jail | Age = x, \; Gender = y, \; Income = z \; and \; Race =Black) = P(In Jail | Age = x, \; Gender = y, \; Income = z \; and \; Race =White)[/spoiler], given any x,y,z.

If someone gets me some good sources, I can work this out.

[sage No.4621789]

>>4621746

>equal
i never said that nigger.
i never said race played no part.
but that race played a smaller part than 3 other things.

the data below
has arrests, prison, and courts
by race, age, and sex
poverty is on you

http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/cats/law_enforcement_courts_prisons.html

dont let reality shake your preconceived notions bro.
keep the arbitrary non-beneficial fight up!
after all theres notions of identity and belonging on the line.

[Anonymous No.4621820]

>>4621789
If you don't think they're equal then race plays a part independent of age, income and gender - which is the definition of a racist.

>dont let reality shake your preconceived notions bro.
I haven't come down on either side of the argument, I'm asking for data so I can decide.

Without any mention of poverty in the statistics how am I supposed to adjust for it?

[sage No.4621848]

>>4621820

> which is the definition of a racist.

so statistics is racist?
i dont like race discrimination.
because it doesnt fix anything.
it is only scapegoating and feels.

if it helped anyone do anything then maybe
i would consider it.

-thought-
what if blacks, generally, are poorer than whites?
if so then higher crime rates would be predicted for blacks.

is the above thought racist?

>data
how do you think i found it?
it should be obvious to you that i
did what you are trying to do.

im not saying take my word, do it.
i cant hold you hand.

(i also did a paper on obesity and poverty
turns out low-income is a better predictor
of obesity than poverty is)
stats is cool brother, good luck

[Anonymous No.4621864]

>>4621848
>so statistics is racist?
No the belief that the two quantities aren't equal is racist.
>is the above thought racist?
No, because you haven't singled out race as the independent factor.

>>4621746 Singles out race as the independent factor.

OK, I'm not talking to you any more - you're retarded. You sound like a 12 year old.

[Anonymous No.4621952]

>>4621864
i think it generally plays out like this:

racist: the causes are biological
nonracist: the causes are social

those are generally the lines that are drawn in the sand, right?

if crime varies more across different societies than different races then the cultural explanation wins out.

>2012
>pushing racism

srsly, how does racism benefit any individual
of any race?

[Anonymous No.4621968]

>>4621537
statistics do works that way but you can't conclude something like
>you are 3 times more likely....
it's not probability, you just calculate the percentage using notation in probability

also, this
>>4621543
i'm not saying it's right, but the US is made by white people for white people in the first place

[Anonymous No.4621976]

YOU ARE 15 TIMES MORE LIKELY TO GO TO JAIL IF YOU ARE MALE

[Anonymous No.4621978]

>>4621976
reminds of a man get in jail for 19 years becuase of a bitch

[Anonymous No.4621979]

>3 times more likely to GO to jail if you're black

Nope. You are 3 times more likely to BE in jail if you're black. Big difference.

[Anonymous No.4621981]

>>4621978

You seem smart.

[Anonymous No.4621980]

>>4621968
>i'm not saying it's right, but the US is made by white people for white people in the first place

like europeans dumped dirt into the ocean until the constitution and roads popped up huh?
why didnt i read that part in my history book?

>for whites
so the govt should intervene into the lives of nonwhites? so as to limit their choices?
this is what you advocate?

[Anonymous No.4621983]

>>4621979

you have to GO into a vagina to BE in a vagina.
everyone that BEs in a vagina has GOne into a vagina.

what distinction are you aiming at?

[Anonymous No.4621989]

>>4621983

if your going on about the time spent in a vagina
remember that blacks serve longer prison times than whites.

dont mix your premise and your conclusions together bro.
we hate mixing around here.

[Ziltoid !Gv599Z9CwU No.4621998]

I'm currently in Statistics, have a final next week. And have no idea what Bayes' theorem is.

[Anonymous No.4622005]

>>4621998
you'll do better the second time you take it.

(just teasing, study hard friend)

[Anonymous No.4622006]

>>4621998
>trip
very suit you
P(A|B) = \frac{P(B|A) P(B)}{P(A)}

[Anonymous No.4622107]

>>4621998

Someone's going to fail hard.

[Anonymous No.4622150]

>> You are 3 times more likely to go to jail in you're black.
wtf is this ?

if you pick randomly someone in prison, it is 3 times more likely for him to be black !!! that's the right interpretation

[Anonymous No.4622169]

>>4622150
Nah, that would be P(black|injail) wouldn't it?

[Anonymous No.4622174]

>>4622107
business or psychology student detected

[Anonymous No.4622180]

>>4622150
nope. there arent 3 black for every nonblack in jail.
there are 3 times as many black than their percent of the pop would indicate.

you shouldnt try to stats if you can barely a sentence.

[Anonymous No.4622969]

>>4622180
say that to my face in real life

[Anonymous No.4623117]

>>4621979
Only valid comment in this thread.