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/sci/ - Science & Math

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4618797 No.4618797 [Reply] [Original]

I'm dedicating the rest of my life and over 20% of my disposable income on attempting to win and make a profit of the lottery and attempting to decode random numbers.

Are draw numbers truly random? Or are there just factors we don't know?

Is there really no way to increase your odds of winning?

Discuss.

>> No.4618799

its random

don't believe his lies

>> No.4618837

>>4618799

What?

>> No.4618888

>>4618799

>> No.4618913

So the universe is deterministic then?

>> No.4618917

sdofsdfsdfsdfsdfsdfsdfsdfsdpofpo

>> No.4618923

>I'm dedicating the rest of my life and over 20% of my disposable income on attempting to win and make a profit of the lottery and attempting to decode random numbers.
You can't do this unless the process they use for selecting winning tickets is not random.

Tell me, do you know how various lotteries pick the winning numbers?

And of those ways, is there any way that they differ from a uniform distribution?

And in those cases, do you have any hope about getting information about those hypothetical systematic deviations from uniform?

And in THOSE cases, does this extra information about systematic deviation from uniform distribution give you enough of an advantage to make a profit (After all, the lottery is taking money off the top, you have to be significantly better than random to win, not just slightly better).

>> No.4618934

>>4618923
Anyway, here's a quick guess as to the OP's state:

>Tell me, do you know how various lotteries pick the winning numbers?
He has no fucking clue, unless maybe he's seen some of the ones that use rollcages or such filled with little numbered balls.

>And of those ways, is there any way that they differ from a uniform distribution?
He doesn't even know what this means.

>And in those cases, do you have any hope about getting information about those hypothetical systematic deviations from uniform?
He'll imagine information where there is none. Numerology.

>And in THOSE cases, does this extra information about systematic deviation from uniform distribution give you enough of an advantage to make a profit (After all, the lottery is taking money off the top, you have to be significantly better than random to win, not just slightly better).
He doesn't know how to calculate this. Wishful thinking will lead him not only to imagine an advantage that doesn't exist, but to believe that it is sufficient to turn a profit.

>> No.4618959

>>4618934

Good effort there buddy, let me actually answer for my self though.


>You can't do this unless the process they use for selecting winning tickets is not random.

Perhaps. But how do you know what is truly random?

>Tell me, do you know how various lotteries pick the winning numbers?

Yes, most if not all of my states and the main lotteries use draw machines filled with balls that all weigh the same, there are usually up to 4 sets of balls that are changed ever few drawings at random, there are also usually 3 PRE test draws before every single actual draw.

>And of those ways, is there any way that they differ from a uniform distribution?

Yes, there are many many deviations that you could potentially take advantage of.

>And in those cases, do you have any hope about getting information about those hypothetical systematic deviations from uniform?

Yes, perhaps.

>And in THOSE cases, does this extra information about systematic deviation from uniform distribution give you enough of an advantage to make a profit (After all, the lottery is taking money off the top, you have to be significantly better than random to win, not just slightly better).

You don't have to be a lot better then random to win, slightly better is still better and offers an advantage over everyone playing.

>> No.4618969

save your self pain and trouble op just buy all the long call options on a weighted stock index that you can afford, sit back and pray

>> No.4618971

>>4618959
>But how do you know what is truly random?
Professional mathematicians have been paid to ensure it is.

>Yes, there are many many deviations that you could potentially take advantage of.
Yes, but name some.

>Yes, perhaps.
Name *one* that doesn't involve rigging the machine yourself.

>You don't have to be a lot better then random to win, slightly better is still better and offers an advantage over everyone playing.
You're not trying to beat others. You're trying to beat the *lottery*, and make money. I can beat the vast majority of people playing the lottery by NOT PLAYING. No loss is better than loss.

>> No.4618974

They change things every two years to keep you from gaining any analytic advantage. Powerball is designed to be impervious to statistics. Though you can do things like not choosing computer drawn numbers. Computers are subject to statistical bias towards certain numbers so they'll always fudge your chances. You need to choose them randomly yourself. Use diceware to pick if you have to.

Scratch tickets are different matter. Don't buy a variety of games, buy multiple tickets of the same game. That's why they're pretty low payout or the ones with bigger payouts are more expensive/harder to crack.

>> No.4618985

There is a possibility that the ink on some balls may cause them to be slightly heavier and therefore slightly more likely to be chosen, but I would say it may be possible to get it correct by guessing well.

A British magician/illusionist/mentalist called "Derren Brown" has done many things on British TV, including a series called "The Events" in 2009
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derren_Brown#Derren_Brown:_The_Events_.282009.29

One thing he did was successfully predicted all 6 National Lottery numbers (The National Lottery is a lottery in the UK - the most well known and most popular. It's playable by anyone in the UK, and has the largest jackpot to people from the UK (on Saturdays) except for the Euromillons). Unfortunately for him, he did not buy a ticket. If he did, he would have won £2.4 million ($3.9 million).

>(continued in next post)

>> No.4618987

>>4618985

Of course, many of Derren Brown's things are just very clever tricks - which have been detailed by the Daily Mail newspaper here:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1212370/How-did-THAT-Derren-Brown-predicts-winning-lottery-n
umbers--hell-reveal-method-Friday.html

Basically what he did was he had some white balls on a stand which he said were what he thought the numbers would be. Then he watched the lottery on a TV next to the balls. He wrote down the results as he watched, then revealed what were on the balls (which all matched).

Because of a law/agreement, the BBC have the exclusive right to broadcast the lottery results first. "Channel 4" who broadcast the Derren Brown show had to wait until the draw was completely finished before they were able to broadcast it - giving a few minutes time.

It was thought that he could have used a splitscreening method, where the section of the screen showing the balls was edited over the live footage, so stagehands could move in and print the numbers on as the results were revealed (in the few minutes between the draw and when they are allowed to broadcast).


Either that, or he is truly magic ;)

>> No.4618992

>>4618985

That's bullshit. He didn't pick the numbers. They were added in later.

>> No.4618995

>>4618974

How so? Are quick picks not completely random? Or is it Pseudo random code?

I have a better chance of picking winning numbers by using true random generation?
Also. What about number spreads?

Of course according to the laws of physics, every single number has the same exact chance of coming up each drawing.

So why don't you just pick 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and a megaball of 6 then? Obviously, that number spread has never happened before, and it's extremely rare.

Don't you improve your odds slightly by never picking that set of numbers since it's not going to come up? Of course if the 123456 does come up then you fucked yourself over.

BUT, it wont. And if it doesn't then you did improve your odds.

>> No.4618998

trace the string of events from the inception of the universe to the time right before you purchase a ticket. oh wait, even that won't help, because DETERMINISM holds your future...for all you know, you may never win! HAHAHAHAH sorry bro. don't you have another fucking interest you can pursue?

>> No.4619003
File: 20 KB, 200x233, 1324864646287.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
4619003

>>4618998

There are a lot of hobbies that cost money.

There are very few hobbies that have a chance at granting you millions of dollars.

>> No.4619006

>>4618987
>>4618985
He should have published a hash of his picks before the lottery results, or released an encrypted version of his picks before the results and given out the key after.

As it is, I call bullshit. A man who can beat the lottery doesn't do this publicity stunt "mentalist" shit - he just becomes a billionaire.

>> No.4619011

>>4619003
>hobby
>could get you millions
Beach combing is more likely to get you a net profit. By far.

>> No.4619013

>>4619003
well fuck me, have a fun life attempting to win a HIGHLY statistically unlikely game. with the money, are you gonna vegetate in a blank empty room all day? because you'll still be dull

>> No.4619016

>>4618995
>Of course according to the laws of physics, every single number has the same exact chance of coming up each drawing.
Only if the lottery is designed properly.

Which it is - they've had a long times and lots of professional work to make various random number generators.

>> No.4619018
File: 34 KB, 553x380, sevendolla.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
4619018

Here's a good simulation of the Mega Millions:

http://megaswf.com/serve/2337028/

Protip: You wont win

>> No.4619021

>>4619011

Except it doesn't. Thousands of people win decent amounts of money from the lottery every year, (then again, millions lose)

But I've never heard of someone getting a decent lump sum from beach combing,

You're a faggot.

You probably believe you're more likely to get struck by lightning right?

Except there's like 90 people a year that are struck by lightning, and thousands of lottery winners.

>> No.4619031

Invest your 20%. Earn 200million. Buy 1 of every combination. acievement unlockef.

>> No.4619035

>>4619021
>But I've never heard of someone getting a decent lump sum from beach combing,
Lots of people get small profits. No one finds any buried treasure, really.

Tell me, do you think airplanes are less safe than cars?

>hurr unlikely things still happen
So fucking what? It doesn't change the fact that you're a retard if you play the lottery.

The fact that someone will win doesn't mean that *you will win*.

Wanna play Russian roulette for a million dollars? There's a guaranteed winner!

>> No.4619036

Fuck people who play lottery. Fuck you. Dumb cunt.

>> No.4619046

>people ITT actually defending their decision to play the lottery
LOL

I could set up a lottery for you. I'll even give you better odds than the state-run lotteries. Who wants in? I'd be more than happy to take your money.

Of course, thanks to government monopolies and such, I'd have to run this through a VPN in a gambling-friendly jurisdiction somewhere on the globe.

>> No.4619057

>>4619021
>You probably believe you're more likely to get struck by lightning right?
Uh, you are, if we're talking about jackpots.

>> No.4619060

>>4619057

Yeah! And your blood is actually blue when it's not touching oxygen!

>> No.4619069

>>4619060
No it's not.
>hurr my unrelated myth means what you said is also wrong
Nah.

>> No.4619087

>Governments exert control over lotteries because it's a source of revenue for them
>The fact that lotteries make money means that the people playing the lottery are losing money on average
>But I'm special and smart, that means I'll be one of the few who win!
LOL
You poor, pathetic faggots.

>> No.4619100

>Are draw numbers truly random?
For some lotteries and other random number games, they have turned out not to be, and people have exploited the patterns and won fortunes.

In other cases, the lottery jackpot got so big that it was a good bet to buy all possible numbers, and people have done so and made a solid profit.

>> No.4619101

OP there is one way to beat the lottery, but you have to pretty much be a millionare to do it, you ahve to find one of those lottos where the money carriers over each time no one wins, wait for the amount of winnings to become greater than the cost to buy every single ticket of every possible number combination. There was one guy who did this and won almost every lottery in every state. As you can imagine its not a one man job, you need to hire hundreds of people to buy tickets all day long like a job

>> No.4619114

>>4619100
>In other cases, the lottery jackpot got so big that it was a good bet to buy all possible numbers, and people have done so and made a solid profit.
However, not even the recent Mega Millions jackpot fit this condition, mainly because of the high chance of sharing the jackpot (which turned out to happen).

>> No.4619381

Is there anything that is truly truly random?

>> No.4619406

>>4619381
cocks

>> No.4619408

>>4619381
Doesn't matter if you can't get any information that can inform an expectation about the outcome.

>> No.4619476

>>4618995
There are millions of combinations that have never come up. pick a completely random set of numbers and it is very very likely that that one set hasn't come up either. 1 2 3 4 5 6 just stands out more than the others, that's all, but has just as much chance of coming out as any one set of numbers

Seriously hope you're not serious.

>> No.4619497

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Lottery_%28Ireland%29#Lotto_6.2F36:_1988.E2.80.9392

That guy is my hero.

>> No.4619505
File: 3 KB, 160x130, 1333994876269.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
4619505

I know I'm not supposed to announce when I'm reporting threads.

But this is a clear case of viral advertising.
I'd suggest you all report this thread, too.

>> No.4619520

>>4619505
>implying lottery corporations would advertise covertly on slow 4chan boards populated by jobless neckbeards and college students

Get the fuck out and drop out of whatever shitty community college you go to. The entirety of science is better off without your "critical thinking" skills bringing it down.

>> No.4619529

>>4619520
>one person suggests that the OP has an ulterior motive for encouraging people to play the lottery
>you react like he fucked your mother
Hmmmm...

>> No.4619539

>>4619497
Yeah, this is why big lotteries hire mathematicians to design their games. Same with casinos.

That said, the lotto guys were just being dicks about it - they weren't going to be bankrupted or anything. They make money no matter how big the jackpot gets - they make their profit by taking a chunk off the top of the ticket sales.

>> No.4619545

>>4619520
>implying lottery corporations would advertise covertly on slow 4chan boards populated by jobless neckbeards and college students
I'm not implying that.
I'm outright stating it.

Jobless neckbeard losers are the perfect people to hire for viraling campaigns.

1) They have no lives
2) They have no money
3) They have no friends

Additionally:
1) Anonymity allows for easy infiltration.
2) Anonymity allows for disassociation.
3) Anonymity allows for false advertising.

It's a corporate wet-dream.

>> No.4619548

Lotteries are a tax against people who don't understand math.

>> No.4619559

>>4619548
How much are they paying you?

It's far too much. You really fucking suck at your job.

>> No.4619569

>>4619559
Who the fuck would pay someone to tell people NOT to play the lottery?

Really, listen to what you're saying.

>> No.4619583
File: 32 KB, 500x576, others-should-fail.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
4619583

>>4619569
Why would I ever enjoy seeing stupid people waste their money on the lottery?

It's bad enough that my roommate bought $20 worth of tickets last month.
And worse that he goes on to complain about how "The rich keep getting richer".

I don't enjoy seeing idiocy in any shape or form.
It burns my eyes.

>> No.4619587

>>Implying the Lottery companies need to advertise
>>Implying the recent huge jackpot wasn't all over the news and didn't negate any need for marketing for months.

>> No.4619592

>>4618995

you split it with the other hundred people who also picked 123456

so your losses are even fucking greater

there are so many better ways to get money using statistics

>> No.4619597

You want to make money with math?

Go into quantitative finance.

>> No.4619601
File: 1.00 MB, 400x225, 1333933723943.gif [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
4619601

>>4619587
>Implying the recent huge jackpot wasn't all over the news and didn't negate any need for marketing for months.
Oh, come the fuck on.

This is getting pathetic.

>> No.4619605

>>4619592
Case in point
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/01/05/hurleys-lost-numbers-win-fans-mega-millions-lottery-money_n
_804723.html

41,763 people played the number from Lost. It only matched 4 of those. Say, hypothetically, if those numbers had been drawn for the recent $690 million jackpot every person would have won about $16,000.

>> No.4619615

if you really think that a lottery draw is not fixed then you dont know shit about science.

>> No.4619616
File: 11 KB, 320x350, 1252222202150.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
4619616

>>4619601
http://articles.cnn.com/2012-03-30/us/us_mega-millions_1_lottery-fever-texas-lottery-lottery-winner?
_s=PM:US

>> No.4619625
File: 92 KB, 576x747, nihilism.gif [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
4619625

>>4619616

>> No.4619635

>>4619615
Fixed? That could cause people to stop playing the lottery if anyone even suspected it. The drawing doesn't need to be fixed - the lottery itself is "fixed" by the very structure of the game.

If you play the lottery, you are the sucker they make their living from.

>> No.4619640

Hey!

Hey guys!

Guys!

I have a great idea. Ten of you give me a dollar. Then I'll randomly pick one of you and give you eight dollars. That's SEVEN TIMES the money you spent!

Who's in? You'll all be rich!

>> No.4620388

>>4619640

I would go for that, because I'm not a poor fag like you. Those odds are reasonable.

>> No.4620394

Just going to prove something.

You can cheat the lottery, I use mental powers to effect what numbers come up. (Look up Influencing RNG with mental thoughts)

Tonights TX pick 3 is going to be 181.

Drawing in 1 hour.

>> No.4620399

>>4620388
You are a moron. Play my lottery as many times as you like, in fact, PLEASE play my lottery as much as you possibly can. I will gladly take your money.

>> No.4620403
File: 9 KB, 200x200, 13071293394791.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
4620403

>>4620399

>yfw I play 3-5 times and win, then leave you.

Mad? pleasure doing business and thanks.

>> No.4620408

>>4620403
Ah, but I only offer an eight dollar jackpot if ten people play, because I'm setting the jackpot at 80% of ticket revenue. Hell, I'll even let that roll over is no one wins, no problem.

But if only you play, the jackpot is 80 cents. 80 cents added to the jackpot for every dollar you spend.

See how this works now?

>> No.4620410

>>4620408
>I'll even let that roll over if no one wins
fixed.

>> No.4620412

>>4620408

Are you stupid?

You said your lottery works by choosing one of the people playing.

If I'm the only one playing you would choose me, and I would win the base $8 every single time for 80 cents.

Thanks man.

>> No.4620417

>>4620412
No, you've misunderstood.

The jackpot is 80% of total ticket revenue. If you're the only one playing, you give me money and I give you 80% of it back.

>> No.4620418
File: 14 KB, 357x402, rocko.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
4620418

>>4620399
>>4620408
You're getting trolled. He's getting paid to act like a moron.

You should probably stop arguing with him. It's how he makes money.

>> No.4620420

>>4620418
Looking like you're right. Sorry, I'll stop feeding the troll.

>> No.4620421

>>4620418

Are you sure you're wearing your tinfoil hat? I hope it's double layered.

>> No.4620425

>>4618797
OP, you'll come out ahead if you just take 20% of your disposable income and put it in a Roth IRA.

>> No.4620429
File: 34 KB, 493x402, 1335276061849.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
4620429

>>4620421
Look, can you please just leave already?

No one on /sci/ plays the lottery. None of us support the lottery. We all recognize it for the horrible business it is.

Your tactics aren't working here. You're just going to make a name for yourself as an annoying douche that no one takes seriously. Just go to /pol/ or something.

>> No.4620430

>>4620417
>>4620420

Nah, I haven't misunderstood.

Read what you typed here: "Ten of you give me a dollar. Then I'll randomly pick one of you and give you eight dollars."


The jackpot is eight dollars every time.

You should have restated the rules if you're going to change them and assume I read your mind.

>> No.4620435

Why waste money on the lottery when you can learn to play poker or black jack? Or, even better, learn to play the stock market.

>> No.4620437

>>4620429

No. I'm not even the first person pointing out how stupid you are thinking they would hire people to try to advertise in /sci/.

Not everyone is out to get you buddy.

>>/reddit/

>> No.4620440

>>4620437
So, it's just the latest fad in trolling?

>> No.4620441

>>4620437
Anyone who advocates the lottery is retarded or paid.

/discussion

>> No.4620442

>>4620430
If you want to abide by the original plan, you need nine buddies to play too.

>>4620441
Or trolling.

>> No.4620444

>>4620441

Who the fuck said I'm advocating the lottery?

>> No.4620445

Yeah guys.

You should all play the lottery.

I won $50 the other day. Why would anyone lie on the internet?

Plus, you never know if you'll win unless you play!
Ignore what all those mathfags are saying. They're just jealous!

>> No.4620446

The only tip I have is don't pick common numbers.

It wont make you win more, but if you do win, you wont have to share

>> No.4620449

>>4620446
That is actually a decent tip. Nothing that looks like a birthday, either.

But it's not nearly enough to make playing the lottery anything but a waste of money.

>> No.4620450

>>4620446
The only tip I have is "Don't play the lottery".

Because only retards play the lottery.

>> No.4620451

>>4620445

And now you're somehow pretending to be me, how cute and autistic, I'm not surprised that you think everyone's out to get you and you're autistic!

You made a shit lottery that offered way to much of a reward for such a small ticket price and only 10 people playing, anyone smart would play it 4-5 times and come out ahead and quit. You're retarded.

The real lottery is a lot more shitty then that. It's a stupid tax if you lose, but if you win then I guess it's a pretty damn good investment.

>> No.4620459

>>4620451
What?

No man. I love the lottery. It donates to schools and stuff!
Just don't look up the actual statistics or amounts or anything like that.

Otherwise, that just ruins the magic!
You like magic... don't you?

>> No.4620467

>>4620451
>And now you're somehow pretending to be me, how cute and autistic
Only an autist wouldn't detect the sarcasm dripping from that post. He wasn't pretending to be you - he was mocking you.

>You made a shit lottery that offered way to much of a reward for such a small ticket price and only 10 people playing, anyone smart would play it 4-5 times and come out ahead and quit. You're retarded.
I'm that guy, not him. And no, you're retarded. I said "if ten people buy $1 tickets, I'll give one of them a $8 jackpot". I later clarified that I would always set the jackpot at 80% of ticket revenue, which is consistent with the original special case proposed.

I wish I had a way to really do this with you, because I'd take you up on your desire to play that lottery in a heartbeat.

> It's a stupid tax if you lose, but if you win then I guess it's a pretty damn good investment.
And in my lottery, you will lose. And the more you play, the more you will lose. In fact, you'll lose money at an average rate that is exactly 20% the rate you spend money on tickets. I wonder how I figured that out...

>> No.4620477
File: 24 KB, 632x467, 1268354634678.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
4620477

>>4620459
I like magic!

Let's ALL play the lottery!
Quick, everyone! There's only 20 minutes left!

You've gotta go now or you're going to miss out on the chance of a life time!

>> No.4620485

>>4620467

You really think I didn't know that? I just thought it was cute, the most sincere flattery, and yes He was pretending to be me, and attempting to mock me. It didn't work out to well.

You keep assuming I would keep playing after a win.

You're still being autistic, please stop.

I would play that and win and come out with a profit and leave. Stupid people would probably keep playing that but it's a much better deal then the lottery, the odds to ticket price to jackpot is way to good with 10 people, it's time to except that you're not really scamming people to well with that lottery, at least compared to other jackpot games.

Sometimes it's okay to admit you fucked up.

>> No.4620489

>>4620485
Yes!

Finally on /sci/ who knows what he's talking about!

Please talk more sense into these plebs. Make them understand that the lottery is a great idea!

>> No.4620490

Also, on second thought, we can simulate it here.


SHA1 Hash your prepicked numbers and post them, 1-10, I will pick the number you pick in at least $5 (5 tries) and come out with my $8.

>> No.4620492

>>4620485
>You keep assuming I would keep playing after a win.
You'd start playing at all. That means I've got you, and everyone like you. Sure, there's a small chance you'll walk away with a profit if you quit after your first win in a pool of 10 people playing, but it's no skin off my nose. And the odds are still against you.

>> No.4620494

>>4620492

Except the odds are not against you if you quit on the first win, they're about 80% that you'll come out with a profit and quit.

Angry? That's how I would beat your lottery.

>> No.4620502

>>4620394

Wait, did anyone see this? Did it happen yet?

>> No.4620504

>>4620502
I don't think it's out yet.

>> No.4620514

>>4620494
You're missing the point - I am making money, guaranteed. It is not even possible for me to not make money on this lottery. Every round I get $10 of revenue and give out $8 in prize money.

>> No.4620518

>>4620494
>Except the odds are not against you if you quit on the first win
Yeah, but that means that you still played the lottery.

Which by default means you're enough of a sucker to play the lottery.

>> No.4620521

>>4620502
yeah man!

It's totally true! Go buy your tickets now!

>> No.4620524

>>4620494
Another anon here. Your 80% number is bullshit, but I'm going to check something here.

>> No.4620525

>>4620514

No.

YOU'RE missing the point.

I don't give a shit if you're making money, I gave you $1 and you gave me back $8 for free.

>>4620518
samefag.

Sorry buddy as hard as you try the bottom line is I came out with a profit and won.

>> No.4620529

>>4620525
>I gave you $1 and you gave me back $8 for free.
Uh, no. There's only a 10% chance of you getting that outcome, and I make $2 regardless because there's only an $8 jackpot if I have $10 in ticket revenue.

>> No.4620531

>>4620529

You're either trolling or really autistic. No other explanation.

I come out with a profit

even if I have to play 7 times.

I win.

Thanks for the free money.

>> No.4620545

>>4620531
OK, let's step back. If you're not trolling, that is. I think I've actually got something interesting to think about here.

Here are my rules:
1) Any number of people can play in a round of the lottery.
2) Tickets are $1 each.
3) You can buy as many tickets as you want.
4) The jackpot will be 80% of the ticket revenue that round.
5) A single winning ticket is guaranteed, and selected at random from the tickets purchased. 6) You can play for as many rounds as you want, with anyone else who also wants to buy tickets that round.

Are you interested in playing this lottery?

>> No.4620546

>>4620521

Just got back, got a $1 ANY for that number, worth a shot.

>> No.4620548

You probably don't make enough money for it to make a big enough difference to win. Just buy a single ticket every big drawing. That's good enough.

>> No.4620556

>>4620555
Then I'll change that rule.

I will guarantee that there are exactly 10 players in any round, yourself included.

>> No.4620555

>>4620545

>1) Any number of people can play in a round of the lottery.

Hah, no thanks, now your lottery is way to unreasonable. I'll play if there are 10 players or less.

>> No.4620560

>>4620556

Ok. Then I'll play until I win once.

>> No.4620564

>>4620531
Sure, who gives a fuck, it's a dollar. I don't know if you're all poor fucks, but I throw 1 dollar coins in the rubbish if I can't be fucked putting them in my wallet. Sure, you make profit, who gives a fuck, I could do the same, but the thing is, I have a chance of getting 80% of 1 million dollars. I don't give a fuck if you make a heap of money, I'm putting in a dollar and getting 1 million. Your logic is tard logic.

>> No.4620567

>>4620560
Ok. (also, to let you in on what's going on in my head here, I think you're on to something. Even though I'm not going to lose money on this lottery, I think you might be right that you can win by taking advantage of the other players this way).

>> No.4620576

>>4620567

That's correct.

>> No.4620582

>>4620564

This.

I would pay for meteor insurance if it was 1$ a month, if my property is struck by a meteor I get a giant lump sum.

>> No.4620600

>>4620567
>>4620576
Here's my math. Your odds of making money by the "quit after winning once strategy" are

<span class="math">0.1\cdot \sum_{n=0}^{7}{0.9^n} = 0.56953279[/spoiler]
And your expected return is
<span class="math">0.1\cdot \sum_{n=0}^{7}{0.9^n\cdot (7-n)} = 2.3046721[/spoiler]

This works because all the other guys keep playing, even if they win. Or at least, there are always other people playing. If everyone played by your strategy and were waiting their turn to play, it's like a pyramid scheme - the early players get some money and get out, at the expense of the later players.

And if there's only 10 people total who want to play, ever, and they quit as they win, then your odds change and it's no longer worth playing even by this strategy. Next post has those odds.

>> No.4620603

>>4620600
(cont)
Oh, and this is actually "quit after winning once or playing eight rounds."

And the first probability is your chance of not LOSING money, not your probability of winning money. Oops.

>> No.4620752

>>4620600
>>4620603
Anyway, if there are only 10 players total and they drop out as they win, your expected return (going as far as one player left) is -$0.18. Which, as expected, means this would be a bad idea.

What this turns out to be about is that you're taking lots of money from all the guys who get unlucky. They're left with losses much larger than the individual winnings of the lucky players. In this case for instance, the last player is left with a $9 loss.

So this lottery is like playing Russian roulette, winners take all the loser's money. And the organizer gets 20% off the top.

Ooh, this is devious. It really looks like playing is a good idea from a first glance, even with a little naive application of math, because you ignore the guy who absolutely gets stomped on to produce all the other players' small gains.

>> No.4620758

>>4620394
Welp, it was 304, not 181. Looks like you're not psychic.

>> No.4621315

>>4620758
zing

>> No.4621319

the best method known for generating true random numbers is an algorithm based around atmospheric noise.

http://www.random.org/

most pseudo random sequences need some kind of starting value to randomize. lots of them use the current time or the current number of CPU clocks since last restard

>> No.4621320

kay, OP.
Don't be discouraged that there are many people employed full time to make sure that people can't cheat at the lottery.
But I'm sure what you can do with 20% of your income is more powerful than the 5000 times your salary they spend to prevent you from cheating.

>> No.4621327 [DELETED] 

>>4618797
the odds are fucking shite. you'd be better off blowing 20% of your disposable income on a slot machine....and you're still a fucking idiot

>> No.4621575

Each set of number is as improbable as any other. If I have a random number generator that generates any number from 1 to 100,000,000 inclusive, and it generates 11,111,111, then that is amazing. But it's as probable as 10,356,296. It's just that 11,111,111 is 'special' because it's all 1's. That's why you're inclined to think "Wow! All 1's? What are the odds of that?!". Because you group all of these 'not special' numbers together, when in reality, each number is different, and given the nature of the number selection, each has the same probability of being chosen:

1/100,000,000

Short answer: Theoretically, no.