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2023-11: Warosu is now out of extended maintenance.

/sci/ - Science & Math

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4361201 No.4361201 [Reply] [Original]

When will we make official first contact with an intelligent extraterrestrial species ?

Your predictions , based on facts please.

Here is a picture of a whale and a human handshaking.

>> No.4361229

~22nd century

Colonizing the solar system , gain the attention of a more developed species.

>> No.4361238

If we're lucky, never. Intelligent ETs will probably be much more developed than us, and will barely have to lift a finger to eradicate us and harvest our planet for resources.

>> No.4361251

>>4361238

Well from a darwinist POV cohabitation beats eradication on the long run.So I don't see why they would do that other than being complete assholes.

>> No.4361267

Never, that's the most likely case.

>> No.4361276

>>4361267

What do you base your opinion on ?

>> No.4361282

>>4361251
Sure. But from that same perspective, they might want perpetual conflict. A Red Queen race can be mutually beneficial, as long as you don't over-specialize to each other.

>> No.4361289

>>4361238
>More intelligent than us
>Still resource-scarce

lolno, we're 50-300 years from nanotech post-scarcity ourselves. Even without nanotech, we'll have abundant cheap energy from LFTRs alone

>> No.4361292

Universe is 14 billion years old.

Human race has had the technology to 'explore' space for about 500 years? The last 100 years we've had 2 world wars.

So let's be generous and say that once a civilisation reaches a certain point it's a matter of time before it gets wiped out by itself (due to powerful weapons, like a-bomb and future variations, being accessible to alot of people). So if we give it a span of 1k years, the odds that two civilisations during this 14 billion span will find each other seems too slim for me.

If there is a civilization that has had space exploration technology for more than 1k years, let's say 1 million years, then it seems likely that any contact with them will be fruitless due to them being to extremely more advanced. It will be like finding a TV back in the middle ages.

Does this make sense?

>> No.4361298

>>4361289
Not all beings will develop in the same direction.

>> No.4361300

>>4361289
>post-scarcity
There is no such thing as infinite resources. Unless you're saying that there's a limit to how much a civilization will want to build/accomplish/control, and they'll be content to stay in their own star system.

>> No.4361303

>>4361251

>anthill on a gold nugget

COHABITATE IT

>> No.4361305

>>4361292
Yeah, both concerns. That we're very unlikely to be on a remotely comparable tech level, and that civilizations might not have a great lifespan anyway.

>> No.4361335

>>4361282

I do not see how a Red Queen's race can initiate intentionally.

>> No.4361355

>>4361335
It requires sentience for it to be intentional, obviously.

"OK, you and I are roughly equally matched in ability to innovate and adapt, and aren't *too* far off in current tech level. You and I are going to go to war forever, OK? Just don't actually exterminate the other guy entirely. Then whenever a menace from another galaxy appears, we'll be ready for them. Oh, and here's some schematics that will bring your current tech level closer to ours. See you in a few years."

>> No.4361384

>>4361355
I wonder how limited you can make the warfare without compromising the adaptations and innovation you're going for. If the homeworlds are off-limits, does that mean you won't be ready for Exterminatus weapons when the extragalactic invaders come?

If ALL planets are off-limits, doesn't that mean you won't have any offensive or defensive abilities in the area of planetary invasion?

>> No.4361401

>>4361355
>>4361335
>>4361282
So it's like having an extremely tough sparring partner. You won't kill the other guy, and you might even help him recover from serious injuries, but you're not going to pull punches otherwise.

"Sir, all orbital bombardment assets are in place. The planetary missile shield has been neutralized."
"Sir, we're receiving a comm!"
"On-screen."
"GG. You win, but we'll get you next time. See you in twenty standard years."

>> No.4361451

Simulation would be a lot more productive than actual war, if you're using it as a way to advance in tech and strategy. And you can have limited IRL engagements from time to time to verify the integrity of the simulations.

>> No.4361461

>yfw they set up a base on the moon and don't give us a fuck

>> No.4361516

It will be one of the greatest events in human history for sure.

>> No.4361524

>>4361355

Damn.Can't really come up with an argument why that couldn't happen but ... just feels wrong and implausible.

>> No.4361532

>>4361524
Probably because all that material waste is unnecessary, in the vein of
>>4361451
So you hold all your war games in a vast simulation, and only use real battles to keep the simulations accurate.

>> No.4361542

>>4361451

Well maybe if it were a machine race vs. another machine race.

I don't really see why humans would ever initiate that kind of conflict.

>> No.4361548

>>4361303
There is no equivalent of the "gold nugget" on Earth. Earth is made of a not-very-special mixture of the same constituents (periodic table) as everything else. There would be no reason for any alien life to care about the "resources" on the Earth, which are stuck down a deep gravity well with many of the rarer elements sunk all the way to the core. Unobtainium does not exist.

>> No.4361553

>>4361251

Yeah, kind of like america when it was first discovered huh? That went great.

>> No.4361558

>>4361548
What if they just want silicon and iron to expand their fleet of Von Neumann berserker probes? Earth has plenty of both.

>> No.4361566

>>4361553

That was more of a theoretical remark.

Furthermore , I don't think that 17th century puritans were much into the Darwinian benefits of cohabitation.

>> No.4361578

>>4361558
asteroid belt has plenty of both
kuiper belt has plenty of both
oort cloud has plenty of both
venus has plenty of both
rogue planets have plenty of both
stars with dense debris disks have more of both by orders of magnitude
pretty much everywhere has these common-ass elements

In every case the resources are more accessible from other locations and don't require excessive energy investment to extract them

>> No.4361593

>>4361578
So they hit Earth last, if they don't consider us a threat. It's still worth it to them.

>> No.4361618

>>4361593
You've created this diabolus ex machina that wants to convert every particle of usable matter in the universe into flying space toasters for no discernible reason. I can't be bothered to argue against such horse shit.

>> No.4361621

>>4361548
>implying alien technology wouldn't be fueled by living beings

They would haverst US.

>> No.4361649

>>4361618
>for no discernible reason.
What? You can't think of a reason why a civilization would want more mass and energy?

Almost any primary value can be advanced by controlling more space, mass, and energy.

>> No.4361655

>>4361621
Yeah, peddle power sure is efficient, that's why we've stuck with it.

>> No.4361667

>>4361621
You know how they did it in the movie version of the Matrix was fucking stupid right? It *can't* work. At best you would burn all the people as a one-shot biofuel.

>> No.4361679

>>4361667
>implying my idea didn't involve burning

How else are you going to get energy out of anything?

>> No.4361693

>>4361679
Oh, well then go for it. But we wouldn't be that huge a source of energy. Sure, they might burn us, but it would be a minor side benefit. Something you might as well do when you're already controlling the planet.

>> No.4361708

>>4361649
Except, you know, such "primary values" as compassion and curiosity about the natural world which would only require the preservation of prime habitats for natural life constituting less than one trillionth of the useful matter of the universe. Your aliens, befitting their status as diabolus ex machina are unwilling to spare a gnat's turd worth of resources for the sake of those objectives.

>> No.4361728

>>4361708
>curiosity about the natural world
That's actually a decent point. They might leave Earth alone just as a natural testing ground for biological evolution.

At the least, the might catalog all the lifeforms and relationships in the biosphere before scrapping it, and then exploring anything interesting in simulations or labs.

But don't pretend that it's not easily possible to have civilizations that don't give a fuck about the natives. We've already seen it in our own history, of our own species, to say nothing of how very different aliens might be.

>> No.4361746

We can hardly communicate with animals on our own planet with whom we share 90%+ DNA

>> No.4361749

They wont be organic creatures, but mechas. They will be almost immortal due to this fact.

>> No.4361759

>>4361746
In our defense, it's because there's not much for them to say, and little we can say that they understand.

But then we come to things like dolphins, chimps, gorillas, etc., where there's clearly more going on mentally than we are able to open to communication. I guess one good standard is whether we can communicate with them as well as they communicate with each other. Unfortunately for a lot of animals this requires having or creating a body that is like theirs (to communicate through).

>> No.4361761

>>4361749
When biology and machinery get advanced enough, they start looking very similar.

>> No.4361775

>>4361728
>But don't pretend that it's not easily possible to have civilizations that don't give a fuck about the natives. We've already seen it in our own history, of our own species, to say nothing of how very different aliens might be.

The New World is more than a trillionth of the resources available on Earth. Not everybody agreed with the rapacious exploitation of the New World (just read the excoriating critiques penned by some spanish clergymen of the conduct of conquistadors). Don't you think that compromise would have favoured sparing the natives and their land *if* it had been the case that this land was utterly insignificantly negligible compared to the land and resources that were free for the taking?

>> No.4361789

>>4361775
It doesn't make the natives any less dead. Though you're right that there was conflict about it, and not all the natives are gone.

>*if* it had been the case that this land was utterly insignificantly negligible compared to the land and resources that were free for the taking?
This is a decent point, but if the aliens don't give a shit about DNA-based life (having concluded it was strictly inferior to other systems of which they are aware), they'll still eventually take advantage of Earth.

Or maybe they're in a war, and they want our resources more than our biological distinctiveness.

>> No.4361918

When we are able to traverse dimensions they will be waiting for us. 400-500 years is my guess.

>> No.4361937

Probably never

If we do, it will be "contact" in the way humans "contact" some bacteria living under a rock 20+ light years away

The Universe is just too vast for us to likely meet any intelligent extraterrestrial life. If intelligent life somehow DOES find us, they will either

a) Ignore us completely and we'd never notice them, like a person walking past an anthill

b) wipe us out completely for various strategic reasons

>> No.4362132

>>4361708
>>4361728

This is the only real reason I could ever see aliens wanting to visit earth.

Just to witness another sentient alien race.

Even assuming that life isn't "special" or uncommon, that doesn't mean the'll be smart, intelligent, species of organisms capable of pooping in a hole in the ground instead of a wherever they so desire.

Evolution isn't a ladder after all, the universe could actually be pretty quite with a few animal grunts and the odd alien radio station to break the silence.

We could go for hundreds of thousands of years and find nothing but unintelligent alien animals.
Mind you thats still a very good reason to go looking for them.

>> No.4362232
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4362232

>implying that we are not already visited
>implying that we are not a mere genetic experiment of evolving civilization by alien race which manipulated first primates
>implying that we do not have hundreds thousands of radar confirmed fast ufo's since first world war
>implying that we did not found metallic implants in abductees
>implying that any kind of alien would do an official first contact with 95% of world population being religious freaks