/sci/ - Science & Math

[Anonymous No.4253914]

For those tech-savvy/engineering /sci/ence /m/en out there, a question: what's likely to be our first foray into serious space colonization, and how long is it going to take to get there? Space elevator? Permanent colony on Mars/the Moon/Europa? Lagrange colonies? What form will they take?

[Anonymous No.4254077]

It was never a tech issue. The tech is comparatively easy. The socio-economic issues are the impossible ones. We're NEVER going to colonize space. The 21st Century will be one of ever-rising wars, called the Resource Wars. There will be no time or money available to colonize space with those going on.

The the RW will transform into the Last War, where billions of Humans must be killed off since there just won't be enough oil left at any price to feed them. Obviously when you're killing off billions of people, you won't have the time or money to spare for space colonization.

After the Last War, Humanity will devolve into a Pastoral existence; we'll become a race of scratch farmers and sheepherders, effectively. Obviously there won't be anything to drive us to colonize space, then.

[Anonymous No.4254094]

There will be no space colonization. But there will be 50% of GDP spent on paying poor people to be lazy and old people to keep on vegetating. The future is not for the dreamers ;)

[Anonymous No.4254111]

reported for discussing about science fiction
enjoy your ban

[Anonymous No.4254138]

It's likely that we will first start off with space hotels, where tourists can go for exorbitant prices for up to a week. Then once enough money builds up, either a government or group of billionaires will establish a colony, almost certainly on the Moon. This colony would be ridiculously expensive to maintain, so there must eventually become a profit motive for keeping it open.

That's the one thing about space; it is currently not viable because of the costs. Once governments tart allocating funds towards technologies that low the opportunity cost of space, colonisation will flourish.

[Anonymous No.4254143]

>>4254077
>Resource Wars
You do realize that colonizing the moon for it's resoruces would be a lot cheaper than waging war.

As a bonus, whoever colonizes the moon have can drop kinetic weapons on the earth.

We will definitely see space colonization. It's either china(which it's science/engineer goverment, as opposed to us 100% lawyers). Or spaceX and private ventures.

But it will definitely happen.

[Anonymous No.4254166]

>>4254077
>dat feel when you open /sci/ and read depressing but cold facts

I have a dream. Why won't you allow me to live a dream, to live in delusion for the rest of my life until I'm old and incapable of any thought. Then I'd die as a bitter and disappointed man.

[Anonymous No.4254266]

It will take some time op, we have the technical prowess it will just depend on what event will trigger the immediate need for it.

Short of a international crises or a major finding that questions almost all levels of modern science, the event will most likely be china's space venture. And since the u.s. likes competing so much we will get another space race that will involve low-level colonization of the moon.

I could go on with would happen after that but then I would be talking about events beyond my lifespan.

Which by the way we will probably need a life calculator/life expander for anything beyond colonization of the moon.

[Anonymous No.4254356]

I'm thinking the first colonization will be an extension of a lunar science station. I can't imagine that it will be a very large city, however. I would say something like 20 years after most of the science station is functioning. So...50 years? Unless private spaceflight really takes off, then maybe 30 years.

[valjean !!4SOyPF0IuOv No.4254372]

We have the tech for manned outposts on mars or the moon. But the best way to do it would be to use one-way missions and aging astronauts - there are literally tens of thousands of such qualified people who would readily give their lives to become the first person to settle another planet, but the social implications are sticky and no one is willing to field the money for such a long-term investment.

[Anonymous No.4254379]

>>4254143
> You do realize that colonizing the moon for it's resoruces would be a lot cheaper than waging war.

You do realize you're trying to rationalize the thought processes of violent simians, right? Any rational man (i.e. one who has conquered his violent-simian side) would see the profitability, but he's a tiny minority. And the capitalists with access to the billions of dollars necessary for space investment are ALL alpha males, hence the very worst of the violent-simian lot.

[Anonymous No.4254677]

>>4254143
> As a bonus, whoever colonizes the moon have can drop kinetic weapons on the earth.

Then why the fuck will Earth governments EVER allow space colonization?

Earth governments can't TAX anyone who leaves the Earth. So why ALSO would Earth governments INVEST in space colonies?

[Anonymous No.4255157]

>>4254677
Governments can tax any colony that still does business on earth; unless these colonies are so completely self-sufficient, they will be using resources from earth, which means they can be taxed.

[Anonymous No.4255172]

Hmmm. Even money says moon based colonies, first, followed by mars, the asteroid belt, the moons of Jupiter (maybe Saturn), Pluto and the Kuiper Belt.

After that, all bets are off, since we're going beyond the solar system (hopefully breaking the escape velocity of the sun).

[Anonymous No.4255228]

easiest way to get a moon colony going.

Make America believe China is constructing one to store weapons out of reach of earth, that can be launched to targets in Earth.

Make China believe they can do this.

Both countries start a space race to weaponize and colonize moon, under the pretense of working together etc. But not really.

[Anonymous No.4255276]

>>4255157

Here's exactly what you sound like: HERP DERP DERP.

There will be almost exactly ZERO business with Earth. Anything shipped up to a colony would be ruinously expensive, and as such totally economically nonviable. And there's no reason to drop anything down to the Earth, since there must be EXCHANGE, and there's almost nothing that the Earth can provide a colony that is economically affordable as I said above.

Without EXCHANGE, there is no such thing as an ECONOMY. And the costs of making exchanges dictate that there be no commerce between Earth and anything off Earth.

The economics of space colonization ONLY benefit the colonizers. NOBODY ELSE. Therefore the capitalist scum on Earth won't make the investment. It's not an investment, after all, since by their economics IT'S JUST MONEY THROWN AWAY. And nobody just throws billions of dollars away.

Space colonization is a dead dream. Humans only do things for ECONOMIC reasons. Even religious behavior is largely driven by ECONOMICS.

[Anonymous No.4255283]

OP, this thread talks about what you are asking
>>4255106

[Anonymous No.4255290]

>>4255276
>There will be almost exactly ZERO business with Earth. Anything shipped up to a colony would be ruinously expensive, and as such totally economically nonviable. And there's no reason to drop anything down to the Earth, since there must be EXCHANGE, and there's almost nothing that the Earth can provide a colony that is economically affordable as I said above.

um... population and supplies?
DERP DERP DERP

[GL !Bgpe2HycPk No.4255295]

>>4255276
>CAPSLOCK

Good morning, RedCream.

[Anonymous No.4255316]

>>4255290

Stop HERPing. There's NOTHING that the colony can return to possibly compensate for the COST of the supplies shipped up Earth's massive and expensive FUCKING GRAVITY WELL. Launch costs of $10000/lb make EVERYTHING unaffordable. So a colony would be a pure WELFARE EFFORT. And that's never, EVER going to happen.

Physics can't trump ECONOMICS, you stupid asshole.

[Anonymous No.4255326]

>>4255316

Scientific creations done in low-gravity or no-gravity situations...

> Metalurgy?
> Medicine?
> Basic Research?
> Scientific Experimentation?

[Anonymous No.4255339]

>>4255316
SPACE elevator. TELEPORTER. MASTERY of the GRAVITON

[Anonymous No.4255340]

>>4255316
you are retarded. Getting to the point where we could have a colony on the moon would mean massively reduced energy costs anyway. We arent goign to run on oil and antiquated ships forever you shortsighted fool.

[Anonymous No.4255406]

>>4255276

>The economics of space colonization ONLY benefit the colonizers.

I guess all those scientist, researchers, mathematicians, architects, designers, manufacturers, contractors, etc and etc. don't count then.

>NOBODY ELSE. Therefore the capitalist scum on Earth won't make the investment.

Yeah they will, there will always be a someone willing to take a chance and invest.

>It's not an investment, after all, since by their economics IT'S JUST MONEY THROWN AWAY.

I wasn't aware that the idea of the human species expanding beyond a single planet was just "money thrown away"...

>And nobody just throws billions of dollars away.

Yeah they do...a lot of it actually.

[Anonymous No.4255420]

>>4255406

> Yeah they do...a lot of it actually.
This is truth. And it's not billions, it's trillions.

> The whole world wastes a shit-load.

[Anonymous No.4255424]

>>4255316
>Implying launching from mobile aerial platforms isn't right around the corner and isn't going to reduce costs significantly.

[Anonymous No.4255443]

No space colonization unless its a profitable endeavour. I think it will never happen as long as we live in a society where everything revolves around money.

[Anonymous No.4255500]

Here's my argument for space exploration/exploitation.

>New heavy lift boosters
>Engineering proposals for better/cheaper ways of lifting things into orbit
>Surveys of Trojan orbit asteroids
>Space based solar power satellite prototype/pilot project
>Manned Mars mission, more probes to finally determine if there is primitive life there
>Plans to begin terraforming Martian atmosphere with engineered microorganisms
>A manned deep space exploration vessel

Sometimes, it takes a government to make investments to create economies of scale when developing/introducing new technologies.

The free market isn't willing to take long-term risks and invest the huge amounts of capital necessary to develop things like:

Heavy lift rockets (it wasn't until the 90's that commercial space launch became a profitable business and even now only the US/EU/Russian space agencies can do true heavy lift)

Intertial confinement fusion (monstrously expensive)

Molten salt reactors (testing reactor design by building a prototype in the 1960's was WAY beyond the means of even the largest corporations, they partnered with government to pave the way)

Nuclear batteries (beta voltaics rock, but they came from government labs)

Fly by light (developed jointly between NASA and private enterprise with generous helpings of government funding)

Dynamically flexible wings (developed by NASA, implemented by Boeing in commercial airliners, extending their service lives-- done with government money as private industry wouldn't build the necessary testbed aircraft without subsidy)

Quiet supersonic aircraft are also a NASA development (which will soon allow titans of capitalist industry to jet about at greater than the speed of sound in supersonic business jets)

[Anonymous No.4255530]

>>4255500
>Asteroid mining
>Space based solar power
>Orion nuclear pulse drive
>intertial confinement fusion
>laser propulsion/ a space elevator to orbit
>Improved automation
These things are all things once proposed by NASA.

These things could, if all implemented in the right ways, lead the US economy to tower above all others and say there in an unassailable position of might. This isn't even to mention what they'd do for our military power.
They could even lead to the beginnings of a post-scarcity economy.

the research isn't worthless. Just because it doesn't turn an immediate profit doesn't make it worthless. It's very useful stuff, but it's also out-there.

Were it not for some geeks at Bell Labs looking into the electrical properties of silicone, the US wouldn't have been the home of the digital revolution. This kind of far-sighted investment in R&D is NOT something the free market does well. It can do it, but examples are exceedingly rare in the modern era of science and technology.

This is why we all (as taxpayers) "take the hit" on things like NASA, the CDC, NSF, NOAA, etc. in order to provide for our future.

Advanced industrial economies don't really experience true growth these days without advances in technology. Not investing in R&D on a massive scale is to ignore the future of our economy and it's what (could) ultimately lead to the downfall of the USA as the dominant power on this planet.

We could use lunar regolith to construct makeshift pusher plates for Trojan orbit asteroids. Once we fine suitable candidates, we could propel them into Earth orbit to be refined/mined using solar foundries.

From there, automated factories in Earth orbit process the raw materials using night unlimited solar power.

The scale of projects we could do would be almost limitless, given that power and raw materials are (practically) unlimited and ultra-cheap.

[Anonymous No.4255536]

>>4255530
The issue is this:
We're spending money like crazy to keep the economy afloat. Prevailing wisdom says the deficit spending is to ensure economic growth so that we can pay off the debt later.

>If we stop spending, the (anemic and largely superficial) growth stops.
>If we keep spending as we're doing (bailouts, subsidy to shitty pet projects, etc.) then the economy won't grow enough to pay off the crippling debt later on in the future.

The only two solutions that I can see are either SEVERE austerity measures that will impact quality of life and ultimately lead to economic downturn as energy and raw materials supplies dwindle

or

Investment/subsidy in high technology and space exploitation. The only way to meet the growth targets necessary for this deficit spending binge to not end in disaster is to dramatically change our economic reality.

Unless anyone else has any ideas for dramatically changing the US (and Western) economy, I say we go with my plan.

[Anonymous No.4255576]

>>4255536
Wait wait
we should spend money to keep the economy afloat
we need to stop spending money
and we should spend money on exploiting space
wat

[Anonymous No.4255604]

>>4255576
Keep thinking, you'll figure it out.

[Anonymous No.4255612]

>>4255604
lol yea and the growth is "anemic" and about "pet projects"
except growth is back to per-recession days.
We just haven't filled the ginormous gap in employment left by no hiring and layoffs.
And companies that were hiding their need for layoffs or trying to tough it out are coming out of the closet now.
Soon enough... 2015 we will likely be not so bad...

[Anonymous No.4255630]

Ask for my will and i will try my mbest for spac colonies in the future

[Anonymous No.4255821]

>>4253914

the moon would be good. great power source (unfiltered sunlight), substantial water discovered around the poles, good material for tunnelling into (housing & cities subterranean)...

and it's close.

[Anonymous No.4255908]

>>4255339
> SPACE elevator.

Impossible. The physical material required would have to exceed the strongest atomic bond known, the double-covalent Carbon-Carbon bond. You can't make a physical object using Unobtainium. Unobtainium doesn't fucking exist, retard.

> TELEPORTER.

Doesn't fucking exist, retard.

> MASTERY of the GRAVITON

No such fucking thing, retard.

You spacebros read WAAAAAAAAAAYYYY too much scifi. It's your fucking RELIGION.

[Anonymous No.4255920]

>>4255340
> We arent goign to run on oil and antiquated ships forever you shortsighted fool.

You're the shortsighted niggerfag if you believe there's anything after petroleum. We're not going to have nuclear cars. The oil will continue depleting until we economically run out of it. Are you going to shovel coal into your car, hero?

Planning a lunar colony, for example, WON'T ALLEVIATE ANY OF THAT FUTURE. It'll just be another $100 billion that the people of Earth will never see again.

Your spacebros and other assorted FAGGOTS have gotten used to FREE GOVERNMENT CHEESE to fund your retarded scifag dreams. Well, that era is OVER. It was all fueled by CHEAP-AS-FUCK PETROLEUM and that is gone FOREVER. Buy a good shovel now, assfags.

[Colonel Coffee Mug !phJ7yIcs.Q No.4255929]

>>4255908

Actually the space elevator could probably be doable. (Graphitic bonds are pseudo-double C-C bonds9. But I've so far not seen any proposal re: space debris. It's a big, big wire, and for most of its length it does not have media on which to unload stress or vibrations.

You're correct on everything else.

[Anonymous No.4255942]

Ah, science fiction, /sci/'s biggest vice. The answer to your question should be obvious: Never. Here is the logic behind that: Resources.

Go and find an abundance source of anti-matter fuel to blast us into the cosmos and then we'll start talking.

[M No.4255951]

>>4255929
If I remember correctly, the space elevator would be built top down, right? You couldn't build it from the ground into space. If this ever actually worked, what you'd have is a heavy tether in geosynchronous orbit, and a machine capable of making carbon nanotube ribbons that would be created as the machine moved down towards Earth. No way in hell are you going to get people up there to build it upside down.

[M No.4255956]

>>4255942
You mean like Earth's antimatter belt? Unfortunately there isn't so much of it, but it is a reusable source of energy.

[Anonymous No.4255959]

>space elevator
>lunar/mars colonization

Lol just wait until we find a Stargate

[Anonymous No.4255988]

>>4255956
wait, the Earth has an antimatter belt? Do other planets have one?

[M No.4255993]

>>4255988
Yes, they do. I think all planets have antimatter belts but I could be wrong. Earth does, so does Saturn, and Saturn has something like 10 or 100 times as much antimatter as Earth does.

[Anonymous No.4255997]

>>4255988
yep, though I forget the specific conditions which lead to their creation.

[Anonymous No.4256065]

>>4254077

UGHH ENOUGHH IS ENOUGH.

IM TIRED OF THESE MUTHERFUCKING HUMANS ON THIS MUTHERFUCKING EARTH.