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/sci/ - Science & Math

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3807809 No.3807809 [Reply] [Original]

two people play a game of rock paper scissors what is the chance that player one will be win?

>> No.3807813

One fourth.

>> No.3807814

50%, he will either win or lose.

>> No.3807823

it can also be a tie

>> No.3807839

there are nine outcomes since they each have three choices giving 3*3 =9 3 out comes result in a tie and three out comes result in wins. Therefore P(a) = k/N where k is teh possible win outcomes divided by the N number of outcomes giving P(a) = 3/9 or 1/3 chance of winning. This is assuming complete random picking of outcomes.

>> No.3807842
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3807842

this

>> No.3807851

>>3807839
This

33.33...% chance

>> No.3808114

win lose or draw 9 possible outcomes
3 of them are draws
3 of them are win
3 of them are lose
33.33% chance of winning

>> No.3808131

better play rock paper scissors lizard spock to diminish the propability of a draw.

>> No.3808151

>>3807809
Depends on the strategy of the two players.
Let Ri, Pi and Si, denote probability of player i choosing rock, paper or scissors respectively.
Assume that the choices of the players are independant (they do not communicate their choice).
The probability of player 1 winning is P1*R2 + R1*S2 + S1*P2.

>> No.3808171
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3808171

>>3807809
Rock-Paper-Scissors between two people
=>
3 possible outcomes
1) Player 1 Wins, Player 2 Looses
2) Player 1 Looses, Player 2 Wins
3) Playder 1 ties Player 2

Now, you find the relative "weight" between then outcomes.

The weight of outcome 1 = outcome 2, by symmetry, since the player labels are interchangable.

Now all you need to do is find the relative weight of outcome 3.

Still follwing me OP?

>> No.3808183
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3808183

>>3808171
Pick one of three hands, this beats one hand only = 3 ways to win

Pick one of three hands, this looses to one hand only = 3 ways to loose

Pick one of three hands, this ties one hand only
= 3 ways to tie

Hence, all weights are the same:
1/3 chance of winning
1/3 chance of loosing
1/3 chance of draw

>> No.3808197

>>3808183
Why provide a flawed analysis, when the correct analysis is given in >>3808151?
You assume the probability of picking a hand to be equally likely, where this is not necessarily the case.
Also, if one of the two players is playing randomly (Pi = Ri = Si), then it follows that the probability of winning is 1/3.

>> No.3808204

You all forgot to mention the "draw possibility"