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/sci/ - Science & Math

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[ERROR] No.3775703 [Reply] [Original]

Probability of getting dubs?

>> No.3775709

1 in 10

what are you, 5 years old?

>> No.3775710

1 in 10, we have this thread every single day now fuck off.

>> No.3775713

In your case it approaches zero.

>> No.3775722

It's impossible

>> No.3775726

>>3775722
BIFF

>> No.3775742

>>3775726
>Implying I didn't plan that

>> No.3775744

When you posted, the chance that your post, draw uniformely among every post of that board, was one of the posts with dubs (including trips etc) was exactly 377570/3775703.

>> No.3775749

>>3775742
>Implying I didn't know you knew.

>> No.3775759

it's less than 1 in 10.
1 in 10 is probability of having any dubs, trips, quads etc.

probability of dubs alone is 0.888... recurring.

>> No.3775762

>>3775759
trips is one in 100
quads in 1 in 1000

>> No.3775767

>>3775759
Leave us alone, please?

>> No.3775770

>>3775762
i think i did it wrong before, but trips or higher is 1/100 (just as dubs or higher is 1/10)

>> No.3775773

>>3775767
whoa, wtf did i do?

>> No.3775776

You don't count trips as dubs even though theres dubs in them. you don't count quads as trips or dubs even though theres trips and dubs in them
>>3775759 is correct

>> No.3775781

>>3775770
Yeah you forgot to alternate the sign every power of n, I think.

>> No.3775798
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[ERROR]

>>3775776
I think probability of dubs is actually 0.09
which is 0.1-0.01 (as in 1/10-1/100, which is prob of dubs or higher minus prob of trips or higher, which leaves dubs alone)

>> No.3775800

THE FINEST

>> No.3775810

>>3775776
>>3775759
Then the change of OP was, using my distribution cause it's funnier than yours (cf >>3775744):

<span class="math">\frac{1}{3775703}(3775703-(377570-(37757-(3775-(377-(37-3))))))[/spoiler]
<span class="math">=\frac{3432458}{3775703}\approx 0.9090911017[/spoiler]

Notice how it's not exactly 0.909090_.

>> No.3775827

>>3775798
Yeah indeed you're right EK. What I suggested in >>3775781 and did in >>3775810 (ignoring the distribution problem) are incorrect. There is no "recursion" in the formula.

pr(dubs) = 1/10 - pr(more than dubs)
pr(more than dubs) = pr(trips) + pr(more than trips)
pr(trips) = 1/100 - pr(more than trips)
=> pr(more than dubs) = 1/100
=> pr(dubs) = 1/10 - 1/100 = 9/100

>> No.3775843
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[ERROR]

>>3775827
>Yeah indeed you're right EK.
WOOT!

>> No.3775854

Getting double digits at the end of your post number is exactly 1 to 10 (obviously).
If trips and more don't count though, it's 1/10 minus chance to get trips minus chance to get quads and so on..

The equation would then be:
<span class="math">\frac{1}{10} - \sum_{n=2}^{\infty } \frac{1}{10^n} = \frac{4}{45} = 0.0888...[/spoiler]
Or what EK said.

>> No.3775855

>>3775843
When are you ever wrong? I fucking love you. Ek celebratory thread. All dubs commemorate our queen

>> No.3775859
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[ERROR]

>>3775855

>CAPTCHA: DRAMA houleye

>> No.3775877
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[ERROR]

>>3775854
nah, thats what i first though, but you end up minusing off the quads twice, and then the pents 3 times...etc.
0.9 is right. i realise it now.

>>3775855
not sure if being very fucking sarcastic, or legit fan. probably the former.

>> No.3775883

ek can I put it in your butt?

>> No.3775893

the probability of winning solitaire

>> No.3775899

>>3775877
Intuition says it's less than 0.9
Why do you think it's exactly 0.9?

>> No.3775908

>3775703
>3775
>377
>77

100%

>> No.3775917

>>3775899
*0.09
see: >>3775798

explained more fully by: >>3775827

probability of dubs or higher - probability of trips or higher = probability of dubs

0.1 - 0.01 = 0.09

>> No.3775920

>>3775854
>>3775877

I see what you mean now, I just have no idea how to put it in an equation.
This is harder than it should be.

>> No.3775921
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[ERROR]

>>3775877
>probably the former.

You're smart and humble. My love for you

>> No.3775937

>>3775854
No, your formula assumes it's possible to have 8 identical digits or more although the posts contain only 7 digits on /sci/.

>>3775810 's formula is more correct but you can refine it. Without any calculation, I can fairly say no one won't have sextuple for at least the next hour. With some statistics and a good timing, one can increase his chances of getting dubs to, I'd say roughly 80% on /sci/.

>> No.3775943

>>3775937
The idea behind my formula was incorrect anyway.

>> No.3775952

>>3775855
>When are you ever wrong? I fucking love you. Ek celebratory thread. All dubs commemorate our queen

While I'm the one admitting defeat right now, it has happened a few times that I've seen EK be wrong. It's kind of hard to always be right on /sci/ because even if you don't speak when you don't know, well when you know a lot, you'll see a problem, read it the wrong way because you don't have enough context, and end up doing a mistake.

[random statement about the fact that being always right implies being always silent]

>> No.3775956

>Implying there is a probablity of a non-random event.

>> No.3775960

>>3775956
>>3775956

Randomness is assumed.

>> No.3775964

>>3775937
>increase chances by 80%

Please don't do that mistake. You probably don't mean "go from roughly 10% to roughly 18%", but "go from roughly 10% to roughly 90%". At least I hope so. And if so, you seem more knowledgeable than what this mistake makes you.

>> No.3775969

>>3775956
See >>3775744
Why do you think I wrote "draw uniformely among every post of that board"?

You are given a "real world" exercise. Pick a model, justify it if needed, do maths into the model. The model will never be perfect anyway.

>> No.3775971

>>3775952
well i post a lot, so i'm likely to be right a lot, but also wrong fairly frequently as well.

as expected, haters seem to only catalogue the times when i'm wrong; bringing it up to haunt me with later.
but /sci/ seems fairly free of haters this evening. :)

>> No.3775973

>>3775877
>>3775827

That is when infinity digits are assumed. Most boards have 8 digits, and /sci/ only has 7.

>> No.3775975

>>3775952
Wrong.

When EK is "wrong" the universe adjusts itself until she's right.

>> No.3775976

>>3775973
dubs will still always be 0.09 (presuming total randomness in the ending post number)

>> No.3775978

>>3775964
he said raise to 80%
youre nitpicking where there are no nits to be picked

>> No.3775980

where are the digits? I don't see them.

>> No.3775989

>>3775971
>>3775971
It's not hate from me. It's just an all around disrespect.
I don't like attention whores. There are (or rather: were) plenty of great 4chan contributors who go by anonymous.
/sci/ is dead
thorium reactor guy even left

>> No.3775992

>>3775976
LIES

Quads contain trips and dubs. This has always been the case.

>> No.3775996

>>3775989
We have Mad Sci, Col. Mug, Inurdaes, and Josef. Our tripfags are pretty darn good, actually.

>> No.3775999
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[ERROR]

>>3775992
yes, that was taken into account during my explanation.

do you actually READ my posts??

>> No.3776001

>>3775976
I don't think so EK. I don't study math so there is a good chance that I'm wrong. If you find a mistake in my post, please correct it.

You stated that the chance to get dubs is the chance to get dubs or higher minus the chance to get trips or higher.
At this point, you just cancelled out the "or higher" terms, which in my opinion was wrong. That's because the chance to get something better than dubs is:

<span class="math">\sum_{n=2}^{7}\frac{1}{10^n} = 0.0111...[/spoiler]

While the chance to get trips or higher is:
<span class="math">\sum_{n=3}^{7}\frac{1}{10^n} = 0.0111...[/spoiler]

The terms weren't equal and thus you couldn't just substract them.

>> No.3776004

.8888...

where the number of 8s is 1 less than the number of digits in the post number.
so
.888888

>> No.3776007

>>3775999
Nope. Nice Dubs, and trips.

>> No.3776010

EK, men are talking.

>> No.3776011

>>3776001
Forgot to add one zero behind in decimals in the second equation.

>> No.3776019

>>3775973
You're wrong. Just read >>3775827
I don't think there's anything left to debate after reading it.

>> No.3776038

>>3775971

>/sci/ seems fairly free of haters this evening.

I hate you. I am smarter than you. Deal with it.

>> No.3776046

>>3776010

>implying EK isn't really a Scotsman with MPD.

>> No.3776047
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[ERROR]

>>3776038
>i am smarter than you.
=p

>> No.3776051

>>3776046
i heard that before...why the hell did you pick scotsman? just making up a nationality, or are you racist against the scottish for some reason?

>> No.3776053

>>3775827

On the other hand, when I look at
>>3776001
It makes sense and I can't see anything wrong with it, so you're probably right in the end.

>> No.3776059

>>3776051
Do you like the scottish, m'lady?

>> No.3776063

>>3776059
nothing against them. i've never been.

>> No.3776071

>>3776063
> i've never been.

I was hoping you could have you travel there quite a lot and are on the lookout for a fuckbuddy up north.

>> No.3776074

>>3776071
*have said

>> No.3776077

>>3776071
you're scottish?

>> No.3776079

>>3776038
>I hate you. I am smarter than you.

Not that I want to defend EK, but really, these don't go together well on a board about science and math. When I'm smarter than someone on the Internet (feel free to discuss the odds of that happening), I usually just laugh at them, I can't really hate them. Cleverness is power here. You don't hate your inferiors.

>> No.3776086

>>3776079
he didn't say they were related.
he might well think he's smarter than me, and hate me for unrelated reasons (hurr durr, attention whore tripfaggot shitposter) etc.

>> No.3776096

>>3776086
>attention whore tripfaggot shitposter
At least you know what you are, love.

>> No.3776105

>>3776077
indeed

>> No.3776116

>>3776086
I didn't just say that, to me, they one doesn't imply the other. I said that one implies the negation of the other. I really don't think I can feel more clever than someone I met on an anonymous "scientific" board, and hate him or her for whatever reason. I can be pissed at him or at her, but hate? Nah... I can only hate someone that I consider dangerous in the most general meaning.

>> No.3776118

>>3776096
no, but i know how haters perceive me.

>> No.3776125

>>3776116
i dont think he means 'hate' in the strict sense of the word. i presume he means 'mildly irritated by' as much as one can be mildly irritated by text and pictures on a website...

>> No.3776153

>>3776125
Text is language. Language written by a person. Arguably images are a form of language as well. What makes you think just because language isn't spoken that it's impact is diminished?

>> No.3776159

>>3776153

because that would be crazy?

>> No.3776160

>>3776153
oh yeah...i suppose not.

>> No.3776167

>>3776159
How so?

>> No.3776169

>>3775703
Define dubs

>> No.3776172

EK, we hate you because you are extremely stupid and you don't seem to realise it. You are constantly giving people hilariously shitty advice about everything. Also your sense of humour is completely shit.

>> No.3776173
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[ERROR]

>>3776118
WELL IN FAIRNESS THAT IS A GOOD DESCRIPTION

>> No.3776185

>>3776169
Last two numbers are equal whereas third to last number doesn't equal those numbers.

>> No.3776201

>>3776086
My pure unbridled rage at your very existence subsides greatly when you reduce yourself to a regular tripfag like this. Let's keep it this way, eh?

>> No.3776222
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[ERROR]

>>3776201
>dat sentence formation

you that poet-guy from before?

>> No.3776225

>>3776153
Because of distance, relative anonymity, the fact that you have time to think about what you write, how you write it, and if you should, after all, not post it at all. The fact you can say total shit, lose an argument, but be watching a good movie at the same time and close the page if you become bored.

>> No.3776235

>>3776222
mfw when trips
mfw when surprised at someone putting some efforts in his writing

mfw when I have no face to show both reactions at the same time

>> No.3776242
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>>3776222
I'm putting time into this, you could at least insult me.

>> No.3776251

>>3776235
well i read the first part in the voice of some deep voiced anime villain, and it sounded awesome. and then the last part as canadian/terrence and phillip.

>> No.3776258
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[ERROR]

>>3776242
holy mother of fuck, what have you done!??

>> No.3776259

>implying trips,quads... dont count

>> No.3776290
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[ERROR]

>>3776258
I found a legit copy of photoshop and now I can't stop shooping. I'm not terribly good at it.

>> No.3776291
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[ERROR]

>>3776225
yeah I guess people don't get angry when they read an article or comment on the web that they disagree with

Oh wait this and every other website anonymous or otherwise tells us they do.

if what you say is true, no one would lose sleep over online arguments or in other words relate to this.
andall munroe's success directly contradicts your thesis

>> No.3776304
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[ERROR]

>>3776290
turning peoples mouths upside down is still creepy as fuck...well played.

>> No.3776315

>>3776304
d'aww, you placated me. I don't even feel like hating on you now.

>> No.3776317
File: 30 KB, 358x882, super_dubs_counter.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
[ERROR]

Don't know why, but I felt the need to verify this with a spreadsheet.

>> No.3776318
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[ERROR]

>>3776290
> Copy 100% legit

>> No.3776319

>>3776290
link?

>> No.3776322

>>3776319
You may want to consider payign for a usenet server. They are pretty aweosme.

>> No.3776324
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[ERROR]

>>3776317
wow, fucking dedicated!
and thankyou for confirming me to be correct.

>> No.3776327
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[ERROR]

>>3776319
here he is

>> No.3776329
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[ERROR]

>>3775703
With Wizard Get 100%

/thread

>> No.3776330

>>3776317
no =AVERAGE command?

>> No.3776338

>>3776329
legit?

>> No.3776339

what random number generator does 4chan use ?

>> No.3776343

>>3776327
I was just about to agree with >>3776315 in saying you were nice and the hate is unjustified.

>> No.3776346

>>3776318
I did not purchase it, not is it returnable.
>>3776319
thepiratebay.org

>> No.3776347

>>3776330
I guess that would have saved me maybe 3 characters of typing.

>> No.3776349

>>3776338
yeh, its a program that detects whether the post before it has been posted (like 3758887) and it detects it hundreds of times a second, while keeping your post ready to send, but held back as a delay.
as soon as the post before yours comes into existence, your post is then automatically posted. so you get the quads or w/e

>> No.3776355

>>3776339
/b/?
its fast enough for the last 2 digits at least to be almost completely random.

>> No.3776359
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[ERROR]

>>3776343
heheheh

>> No.3776361

>>3776291
Nah I don't think he does. I can totally stay up one night arguing on the Internet, anonymously or not. That doesn't contradict the fact that if someone tried to really hurt me on the Internet, I doubt he could. In real life, it'd be much easier.

First of all, they'd have much more information about me. They'd know where I am, what I look like, they'd feel it if I get uncomfortable.
Furthermore, when I argue all night long, I can still decide to quit whenever I want to. The fact that I don't doesn't mean that I can't. It's comfortable to know that you won't be harassed by someone who still disagrees with you and won't "let you go".
To conclude, people I might argue with IRL, well I'm likely to meet them again soon and be recognized (especially if they're, like, my friends, coworkers, family...). That gives less freedom of action if you are aware of the consequences.

Everything I said can be interpreted as a "So you're anonymous and there no risk, just be a jerk". That's obviously not what I mean. I just mean that it shields you from most "negative emotions" (sorry if that sounds like wannabe psychology, that's unintended).

>> No.3776364

>>3776347
Actually only 1

sum/1000 8 characters
average 7 characters.

You need to save pixels bro.

>> No.3776371
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[ERROR]

>>3776361
and yet people often still get very very frustrated even just over internet arguments.

>> No.3776372

>>3776343
>>3776359
Well, good, now that this thread is an EK love-fest, let's get some topless shots going.

>> No.3776385

>>3776361
The question wasn't whether you can feel genuinely frightened, scared or threatened by text. which of course you can . more than in real life, obviously not.

The question was whether people can feel "mildly irritated" online. Clearly words don't lose their power that much in the translation of spoken to written word.

>> No.3776389

50/50

>> No.3776393

>>3776385
Well to me, they partially do. Or maybe it's because I don't get irritated easily anyway. But I've never felt irritated at anyone while browsing except for my own self when I do something really stupid and I realize it afterward...

>>3776364
How much time will you save if you don't answer this comment questioning the time I'm losing by asking you if you're losing your time thinking about saving pixels and characters?

>> No.3776412

>>3776393
I don't believe you've never felt compelled to respond to an incorrect comment.

If it were true, your blood would be highly sought after for the production of a troll immunisation

>> No.3776443

>>3776412
Well I feel compelled to do it indeed, but as some sort of game. And if for some reason, I didn't have the choice and was forced to answer trolls, I certainly wouldn't have the same kind of fun doing it.

I want to answer on the Internet just as I want to take another round as well when people order more beer: if I'm too drunk, if I don't have enough money, if I have to go now, I'll skip it. I rarely do, but I always know I can. And choosing not to is, in itself, pretty entertaining. The "Ah what the hell, OK!" is a little exciting.

>> No.3776462

>>3776443
what if you can't_tell_if_troll

>> No.3776473

1/10

However you should always shoot for a 99/00 get because they're consecutive dubs and therefore easier to get

>> No.3776499

>>3776462
I don't get annoyed. If I answer and it's a troll, it's not such a big deal. If I don't answer and it was serious, not a big deal either. Considering the amount of trolls on 4chan, it's not like anyone but pure lurkers can say they've never answered to a troll for sure. I really can't see how trolls are a problem, unless you think about cutting your arteries whenever you realize you've fallen for one.

>> No.3776501

what are the chances of gettin dubs in any part of the post number (like 3776564, where 77 is the dub).
I'm not sure how to even start figuring it out.

>> No.3776536

>>3776501
Assuming that 888 is correct, and that 7788 are correct as well.

Chance to get that kind of dubs in post number of length n is denoted by D_n.

Consider that you just append the nth character to the previous n-1. Either there were dubs in there, or there weren't. If there weren't, you have a 1/10 chance that adding your digit creates dubs because the (n-1)th digit was the same.

So,
<span class="math">D_n=D_{n-1} + (1-D_{n-1})\frac{1}{10}[/spoiler]
<span class="math">D_n=\frac{1}{10}+\frac{9}{10}D_{n-1}[/spoiler]

Should be enough for you to find the general form.

>> No.3776550

>>3776499
No what happens if you think it's legitimately someone being retarded in the midst f an argument? Are you telling me you don't argue online? or while you're arguing your facial expression doesn't shift from 'knowing smile' ?

>> No.3776562
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[ERROR]

>Probability of getting dubs?
>117 posts and 21 image replies omitted. Click Reply to view.

>> No.3776566

all these suckers
calculating pior odds
just calc the posteriori odds

>> No.3776570

>>3776550
By "I don't get annoyed", I mean that the specific situation of not knowing if someone is a troll or not doesn't really affect me (by the way, are we trolling each other or is there any real interest to anything either of us has said for about 10 posts?).

But as I said, I can of course get a bit pissed of. Usually at me.

>> No.3776582

>>3776562
Hahahaha, I'm so happy talking shit that long has actually been useful in disappointing an unwary anon.

>> No.3776587

>>3776566
posteriori odds are 1 for you?

captcha: stepson HiDerp

>> No.3776787

>2011
>not getting doubles

The probability of me getting doubles is 10/10

>> No.3776799

>>3776787

moar liek 0/10

>> No.3776827

So if it's 1 in 10, what about boards that are faster than others. With the slowest board, isn't it a hell of a lot easier to predict when you will get dubs? And the fastest boards like /b/ posts go by so fast it's impossible to predict and is completely random? Or am I missing something here?

>> No.3776862

>>3776339
it's not random. It just counts

>> No.3776869

>>3775759
The question needs to be more clearly defined. The probability of being assigned a dub on any random post is 1/10, ignoring trips/etc...
The probability of getting dubs however, as you mentioned, is linked to the post count/second as well as the ability to calculate the approximate count/second so that you can get dubs with relative consistency. It has nothing to do with being assigned a 1/10 number but at how reliable you can predict the frequency of dubs happening.

>> No.3776885

>>3776869
As OP didn't mention he was trying to get dubs or gave any strategy he would use, we're clearly asked to find the probability of getting dubs when you have no damn idea about what the current post count is.