Ray Kurzweil

[Anonymous No.3382926]

If he is to be believed, the near-future is going to be fucking awesome. Why shouldn't I believe this guy? Thanks /sci/.

[Anonymous No.3382927]

Futurism is not science.

[Krakengineer !!5XY+x7grkpt No.3382941]

Futurists have a very poor record of being correct. Kurzweil himself made predictions about what the present day would be like back in the 70's and 80's, none of which have panned out.

[Anonymous No.3382942]

/sci/ does not like optimism or progress.

[Anonymous No.3382948]

http://scienceblogs.com/pharyngula/2010/08/ray_kurzweil_does_not_understa.php
http://scienceblogs.com/pharyngula/2010/08/kurzweil_still_doesnt_understa.php

/thread

[Anonymous No.3383057]

>>3382948
Why do these links seem famili... oh it's the quack that thinks Dawkins is a sexist because he won't white knight for a feminist.

[Anonymous No.3383062]

>>3382942
I think you might be correct about the optimism part

[Anonymous No.3383070]

>>3382942
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Age_of_spiritual_machines#2009

That's what Kurzweil predicted for two years ago. Guys nuts.

[Anonymous No.3383145]

>>3383070
Only perhaps 2 or 3 of those predictions are incorrect. 2 of THOSE are matter of adoption of a technology which does exist.

And really the recession was more about not regulating how people handled their debts rather than anything to do with growth

Here ya go
http://c0068172.cdn2.cloudfiles.rackspacecloud.com/predictions.pdf

[Anonymous No.3385469]

Le bump

[Anonymous No.3385839]

>>3382926

Because he's a kook. Do you honestly think that much progress will be made in less than 100 years? C'mon. We'll be lucky if the next 2 generations can fucking read.

[Anonymous No.3385894]

>>3385839
Nanotechnology, bro.

[Anonymous No.3385988]

>>3383145
>Only perhaps 2 or 3 of those predictions are incorrect.

>"body LANs"
NOPE
>Rotating memory (CD-ROMS, Hard disk drives) are on their way out
NOPE
>The majority of text is generated with speech recognition software
HAHAHA NOPE
>Computer-controlled orthopedic devices, "walking machines" are used to help the disabled
NOPE
Translating telephones (where each caller is speaking a different language) are commonplace
NOPE
>The ten years leading up to 2009 have seen continuous economic expansion
ALL MY NOPE
>Tele-medicine is widely used, where the physician examines the patient at a distance with virtual reality
NOPE

[Anonymous No.3385999]

>>3385988
Yeah.

These two are OKish though:
>Most purchases of books, videos and music are digital downloads
>Warfare is dominated by unmanned intelligent airborne devices

[Anonymous No.3386002]

Isn't this the guy who was so in love with his father that he wants to bring him back to life with AI?

nutjob detected

[Anonymous No.3386046]

>>3385988
>>3385988
>Rotating memory (CD-ROMS, Hard disk drives) are on their way out
>NOPE
Have you heard of solid state drives? And I bet you don't have any rotating memory in your phone, music-player or camera.

>The majority of text is generated with speech recognition software
>HAHAHA NOPE
True, but this is due to copyright and legal issues. Technologywise we are almost at a stage where it is possible to do. But then again, who wants that? I like typing my texts by hand.

>Computer-controlled orthopedic devices, "walking machines" are used to help the disabled
>NOPE
These are actually about to be released to the market in Japan.

>Translating telephones (where each caller is speaking a different language) are commonplace
>NOPE
True, but this is tied to the issue of speech recognition. Once that hurdle is passed it is not beyond current tech.

>The ten years leading up to 2009 have seen continuous economic expansion
>ALL MY NOPE
All mine as well, but then again, the guy is not an economist.

>Tele-medicine is widely used, where the physician examines the patient at a distance with virtual reality
>NOPE
This is currently being developed.

[Anonymous No.3386060]

>>3386002
If I could bring my father back I would too. And I also know that that is what my father would have wanted (he was a big time futurist and transhumanist).

[Anonymous No.3386072]

>>3385999
>Warfare is dominated by unmanned intelligent airborne devices
Even this is being very, very generous. Predator was deployed in the mid 90's, can't be said to 'dominate warfare', and isn't meaningfully intelligent.

[Anonymous No.3386073]

>>3386002
Gary Schwarz is the guy who voices the Heavy and Demoman in TF2, as well as various other Valve characters.

He has like 4 doctorates or something in science, and is a ghost scientist. He studies afterlife phenomenon.

Also, there's a guy who invented the neurophone or something, a device which transmits vibrations to the ear canal via bone conduction and can permit deaf people to hear. Except he's nuts otherwise.

[Anonymous No.3386117]

>>3386060
>>3386073
I read an article in the Atlantic Monthly, I think--may have been Rolling Stone or something--in which the guy was going on and on about how great his dad was, he was literally crying and shit, talking about how great it would be to "bring him back to life" with AI.

[Anonymous No.3386128]

>>3382926
total nut job.

[Anonymous No.3386129]

Neil Degrasse Tyson is better at this shit, and futurism isn't even his field. Fuck Krazy Kurzweil. Go do some voodoo on your daddy.

[Anonymous No.3386144]

>>3386046
>Have you heard of solid state drives? And I bet you don't have any rotating memory in your phone, music-player or camera.
Are you buying movies on NAND? SSD existed in 1999, "technology will advance" is hardly a ground-breaking prediction.
>True, but this is due to copyright and legal issues.
Are you using speech-to-text right now? No. So how the fuck is it "copyright and legal issues" preventing this?

>If we had the technology, we'd have the technology!

[Anonymous No.3386154]

>>3386144
>Are you using speech-to-text right now

My girlfriend has an HTC Evo. There's some kinda thing that's lets you talk and then your speech gets turned into a text message. So yes. I am.

[Anonymous No.3386175]

>>3386046
>mfw my videocamera still uses cassette tapes

[Anonymous No.3386209]

>>3386144
Legal issues as in "the patentholders won't allow others to use and further develop the technologies", I would imagine.

[Anonymous No.3386220]

>>3386144
Are you fimiliar with Dragon Naturally Speaking? They have the technology patented currently. when their patent ends, it will become widespread. I downloaded a trial, the shit works great. Not worth the 100$ price tag tho.

[Anonymous No.3386231]

His 2009 predictions are actually quite reasonable.
>2019
>virtual sex
ALL OF MY HOPE.

[Anonymous No.3386257]

>>3382941

Source, I wanna see his predictions and how they didn't pan out give me a few

[Anonymous No.3386272]

>>3382948

Ok I see this article, but then you and I both know about the experiment they did with rats recently. The first functional brain implant to improve intelligence. And the way it works can actually reverse enginered

[Anonymous No.3386284]

66 years. From the invention of the first flying machine to putting a probe in orbit around Mars

[Anonymous No.3386302]

>>3386257
see
>>3383070

[Anonymous No.3386316]

>Computers are primarily portable, with people typically having at least a dozen on or around their bodies, networked together with "body LANs"
Completely incorrect
>Rotating memory (CD-ROMS, Hard disk drives) are on their way out
Entirely true.
>The majority of text is generated with speech recognition software
This may be true in the next few years, as the technology is currently patented.
>Learning at a distance, through computers, is commonplace
This is true, khanacadamy for an example
>Computer-controlled orthopedic devices, "walking machines" are used to help the disabled
This is just dumb
>Translating telephones (where each caller is speaking a different language) are commonplace
When Google gets their hands on speech recognition software this is most certainly going to happen
>Virtually all communication is digital and encrypted
This is true, analog is almost entirely phased out
>The ten years leading up to 2009 have seen continuous economic expansion
911 caused economic downturn, and noone predicted 911
>Most purchases of books, videos and music are digital downloads
Entirely true
>Warfare is dominated by unmanned intelligent airborne devices
this may be true soon
>Tele-medicine is widely used, where the physician examines the patient at a distance with virtual reality
Some japanese company, i forgot the name, already has something like this, and is implementing it.

[Anonymous No.3386344]

>>3386231

>2019
>virtual sex

Please god make it happen.

[Anonymous No.3386375]

>>3386316
>>3386316

>The majority of text is generated with speech recognition software
"This may be true in the next few years, as the technology is currently patented."


there are about 100 different "major" voice recognition algorithms in play. they are used on everything from car-entertainment systems in BMW and Mercedez type high end vehicles, all the way to professional voice recognition software used by the military and FAA to the voice recognition software use by companies who operate automated telephones.


the reality is that there are SOO MANY different, nonequivalent, algorithms and sets of programming code, that the patents mean almost nothing.

in 2011, the available processing power and storage in most devices also means that even the poor performing algorithms will still work well enough.

>Computer-controlled orthopedic devices, "walking machines" are used to help the disabled
"This is just dumb"

actually Honda and Toyota have developed a set of "bionic legs" similar in many respects to the leg section of the Raytheon robotic frame thing that everyone knows about.

it does NOT have a huge battery pack, nor does it have a big gigantic tether to a 12'x24'x12' portable generating station

currently they are still in development, but they have had working prototypes for over a year now.
Everything else you said I agree with 100%

[Anonymous No.3386380]

>>3386316
911 did not cause the economic downturn, it actually delayed us having to deal with it, due to war mobilization. The crash would have happened earlier if not for 9-11 lets not be pants on head here.

[Anonymous No.3386416]

The economic down turn began in about 2002, the peak prices of real estate of 2006 just shows how oblivious we were to the problem. Our economy was not sound in 2002, we just didn't have to face reality at the time. Most of the money that made its way to the middle class and the poor was leveraged money. When that money disappears so did jobs property and the illusion of economic stability

[Anonymous No.3386474]

>Make prediction in 1999 that fusion reactors will power the world in 2009. "well, fusion is in development, we'll just call that 99% right"

Look Ma, Ima Futurist!

[Anonymous No.3386487]

Everything Kurzewil says will one day come. Just not nearly as soon as he says it will.

But we can hope. And you can hit the books to help some of the things indeed come to pass.

[Colonel Coffee Mug !phJ7yIcs.Q No.3386492]

He made 108 predictions for 2009, and the only ones people are responding to are the ones listed in the Wikipedia article?

I'll go download a copy of the book and evaluate them myself.

He's still some kind of nutjob, too. I mean, he has some good ideas. But he has some terrible, terrible nonsense that is demonstrably false, and I don't know what's what anymore.

[Anonymous No.3386497]

>>3386492
Being a nutjob shouldn't matter, and i expect better than this from /sci/.

Tesla and newton are two perfect example of nutjobs.

[Colonel Coffee Mug !phJ7yIcs.Q No.3386509]

>>3386497

My main objection is simply that, no matter how many times Peter Diamandis or whatever his name is says Kurzweil is a "scientist of scientists", he's still some kind of computer science guy.

I'd rather listen to an actual neuroscientist, such as Anders Sandberg, talk about mind uploading and mind uploading only since it's what he studies, than have some Internet random talk about the future of absolutely every technology ever.

Well, I got my copy. Time to start judging.

[Colonel Coffee Mug !phJ7yIcs.Q No.3386529]

>Individuals primarily use portable
computers, which have become dramatically lighter and thinner than the
notebook computers of ten years earlier. Personal computers are
available in a wide range of sizes...

Yes.

>... and shapes, and are commonly embedded
in clothing and jewelry such as wristwatches, rings, earrings, and other
body ornaments. Computers with a high-resolution visual interface range
from rings and pins and credit cards up to the size of a thin book.

... No.

[Anonymous No.3386530]

>>3386509
Studying a thing, and actively trying to accomplish a thing are two different things..... thing a ding ling thing ding thing ding.....thing

[Colonel Coffee Mug !phJ7yIcs.Q No.3386538]

>People typically have at least a dozen computers on and around their
bodies, which are networked using "body LANS" (local area networks). [1]
These computers provide communication facilities similar to cellular
phones, pagers, and web surfers, monitor body functions, provide
automated identity (to conduct financial transactions and allow entry
into secure areas), provide directions for navigation, and a variety of
other services.

Nope.

>For the most part, these truly personal computers have no moving parts.
Memory is completely electronic, and most portable computers do not have
keyboards.

Keyboardless computers? And this totally has nothing to do with the fact that the guy sells speech-to-text.

[Anonymous No.3386543]

>>3386509
Kurzweil is a genius. He's an engineer and has been inventing shit since before you were born. He said he has neuroscientists on his team. Besides, mind uploading isn't his main MO. It's AI.

[Colonel Coffee Mug !phJ7yIcs.Q No.3386547]

>Rotating memories (that is, computer memories that use a rotating
platten, such as hard drives, CD-ROMS, and DVDS) are on their way out,
although rotating magnetic memories are still used in "server" computers
where large amounts of information are stored. Most users have servers
in their homes and offices where they keep large stores of digital
"objects," including their software, databases, documents, music,
movies,...

Yes.

>...and virtual-reality environments (although these are still at an
early stage).

If you count WoW.

>There are services to keep one's digital objects in
central repositories,

Fuckin' dropbox.

>but most people prefer to keep their private
information under their own physical control.

Haha!

[Anonymous No.3386552]

>>3386072

Everything lately has been drone attacks

[Colonel Coffee Mug !phJ7yIcs.Q No.3386570]

>Cables are disappearing. [2] Communication between components, such as pointing devices, microphones, displays, printers, and the occasional keyboard, uses short-distance wireless technology.

No, except some things. Also

>the occasional keyboard

>Computers routinely include wireless technology to plug into the ever-present worldwide network, providing reliable, instantly available, very-high-bandwidth communication. Digital objects such as books, music albums, movies, and software are rapidly distributed as data files through the wireless network, and typically do not have a physical object associated with them.

Yeah, I guess.

>The majority of text is created using continuous speech recognition (CSR) dictation software, but keyboards are still used. CSR is very accurate, far more so than the human transcriptionists who were used up until a few years ago.

Again, totally unrelated.

>Also ubiquitous are language user interfaces (LUIS), which combine CSR and natural language understanding. For routine matters, such as simple business transactions and information inquiries, LUIS are quite responsive and precise. They tend to be narrowly focused, however, on specific types of tasks. LUIS are frequently combined with animated personalities. Interacting with an animated personality to conduct a purchase or make a reservation is like talking to a person using videoconferencing, except that the person is simulated.

No. I think that was popular in, like, 1998.

[Colonel Coffee Mug !phJ7yIcs.Q No.3386587]

>Computer displays have all the display qualities of paper-high resolution, high contrast, large viewing angle, and no flicker. Books, magazines, and newspapers are now routinely read on displays that are the size of, well, small books.

Soon...

>Computer displays built into eyeglasses are also used. These specialized glasses allow users to see the normal visual environment, while creating a virtual image that appears to hover in front of the viewer. The virtual images are created by a tiny laser built into the glasses that projects the images directly onto the user's retinas. [3]

Also soon.

>Computers routinely include moving picture image cameras and are able to reliably identify their owners from their faces.

Not that I know of.

>In terms of circuitry, three-dimensional chips are commonly used, and there is a transition taking place from the older, single-layer chips.

Oh, I wish.

>Sound producing speakers are being replaced with very small chip-based devices that can place high resolution sound anywhere in three-dimensional space.

Don't know.

[Anonymous No.3386593]

>>3386570
But don't you want Bonzi Buddy to control your finances?

[Anonymous No.3386611]

Kurzweil's logic makes sense to me. Back in 1997 the cost of 1 GB of memory cost around $250. Now its closer to about $1/GB. So a little more than 10 years the technology got better by about 250%. Where do you think we'll be in another 10 years?

The exponential is getting steeper as time goes on. Look at modern society. We can't go anywhere outside the comforts of our smartphones or wifi. Human beings are already merging with the technology, they just haven't been physically made part of the human body. In 10 years, today's technology will be archaic.

[Colonel Coffee Mug !phJ7yIcs.Q No.3386616]

>A $1,000 personal computer (in 1999 dollars), can perform about a trillion calculations per second. [4] Supercomputers match at least the hardware capacity of the human brain - 20 million billion calculations per second.

*sigh*

>There is increasing interest in massively parallel neural nets, genetic algorithms, and other forms of "chaotic" or complexity theory computing,

Well lately everyone has been all like "lolz let's make everything procedurally generated and use a genetic algorithm DERPBIKE!!!!".

>Research has been initiated on reverse engineering the human brain through both destructive scans of the brains of recently deceased persons as well as noninvasive scans using high resolution magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of living persons.

Neuroscientists gonna neuroscience.

>Autonomous nanoengineered machines (that is, machines constructed atom by atom and molecule by molecule) have been demonstrated and include their own computational controls. However, nanoengineering is not yet considered a practical technology.

To date the closest thing to mechanosynthesis we have is banging an AFM/STM tooltip against a surface in an ultra-high vacuum at liquid Helium temperature. Reusable, fully programmable assemblers? No.

hey mommy i made a diamond in nanoengineer-1 am i siens yet

>Education In the twentieth century, computers in schools were mostly on the trailing edge, with most effective learning from computers taking place in the home. Now in 2009, while schools are still not on the cutting edge, the profound importance of the computer as a knowledge tool is widely recognized. Computers play a central role in all facets of education, as they do in other spheres of life.

This is very vague.

[Anonymous No.3386632]

>>3386543

Yea to be honest there are a lot of option for what a "singularity could look like" It could be the advent of AI Human co-operative, it could the seamless integration of machine capability and human intelligence(I think it will look more like this), we might make significant advancements biological engineering and the sigularity might look more organic than we thought, and we actually make our machine more organic instead of making ourselves more machine like. It all depends on where our advancements occur first and what trends become lucrative in the early stages. Right now it looks as if the tech for a more organic future is behind the tech for a more AI/machine oriented future. But given a bit a legislation, funding and interest that could change

[Anonymous No.3386625]

The only good prediction is digital downloads. Everything else is bullshit to complete bullshit.

Also in "How my predictions are faring" I think Kurzweil says his wearable computing idea is essentially correct....

That#s the point about Kurzweil. He creates an image in an normal person's head about the future, like robot suits for the disabled. Now you think you would see at least some disabled people here and there with those things on. Of course you don't. Then Kurzweil says "entirely correct", because they do exist in labs. He's a fraud.

[Anonymous No.3386644]

>>3386611

If by memory you mean RAM, then 1GB costs far more than a dollar, if you mean hard disk wise, the n you're also way off, my 1TB HDD cost me like 60 dollars

[Colonel Coffee Mug !phJ7yIcs.Q No.3386650]

>>3386530

Well, Dr. Sandberg would have little ethical qualms with laminating a living brain (lol) if he had the funding and there weren't any ethics committes, he and Nick Bostrom also published a roadmap to whole brain emulation. I haven't seen many people take an interest in that except general transhumanist types, though. And Kurzweil? Yeah he, um, does whatever the hell he does. I trust he'll soon unveil a general-purpose AI that does anything a human can do, after all, 2009 was two years ago so all you need is time on a Beowulf cluster and you can run your ten million people on a chip, right?

Well, at least Ray Kurzweil is not as annoying as Tipler.

[Anonymous No.3386673]

sorry, meant hard disk space.

[Colonel Coffee Mug !phJ7yIcs.Q No.3386704]

Well I have to go now, but there's one last thing:

Isn't regular transhumanism good enough for this guy? Why did they have to invent some consumationalist fantasy where a benevolent AI powered by tofu whisks them away to nerdtopia? In the end all these people are just Charles Stross characters, technobabbling and blogging and thinking it to be an expression of their transhumanist ideals, while the real transhumanists do the research -- And then these people will take the credit.

Pic is OC. Enjoy.

[Anonymous No.3386804]

>>3382941

But many have underestimated the greatness of the future. Some thought we'd have our own personal computers operated with huge levers right now.

Sidenote: why the hell does the Firefox dictionary use guesstimated not estimated?

[Anonymous No.3386832]

>>3386416

Hasn't been sound since forever. It violates common sense, but nobody believes in can be that simple so it goes unnoticed.

[Anonymous No.3386899]

>>3386552
>Everything lately has been drone attacks
Because they're a cheap way to kill random brown people, they're currently worthless against anybody who can fight back.

[Anonymous No.3386908]

>>3386899

>fight back

Nobody with an AK-47 on the ground with a turban is going to shoot down a drone at 10,000 ft.

[Anonymous No.3386922]

>>3386704
I find his transhumanism a lot more realistic and defined, thank you very much.

[Anonymous No.3389282]

Soooo... In conclusion, Kurzweil is right?

[Anonymous No.3389348]

There's too much harping on past predictions ITT. Are some of the technologies Kurzweil claims will be available in the 2020s really being developed? Nanomachines that will keep you healthy from the inside, etc.

Captcha: Testify! oekepedia

[Anonymous No.3389377]

lol this guys is a joke and a media whore.

[Anonymous No.3389409]

>>3389377
>Mad that he isn't a genius millionaire like ol' Raymond

[Anonymous No.3389443]

>>3385988
>Rotating memory (CD-ROMS, Hard disk drives) are on their way out
>NOPE

>2011
>Not using SSDs, implying smart phones and mp3 players use spinning platter hard drives

Not even worth my time.

[Anonymous No.3389661]

Fuck long post didn't make it through the chans it seems...

Here he proves his predictions, some a debatable but most are spot on in at least the technology existing.
http://c0068172.cdn2.cloudfiles.rackspacecloud.com/predictions.pdf

[Anonymous No.3389681]

ITT: Ad Homenium

[Anonymous No.3389714]

>>3389681
Well, OK:
Homenium + Homenium = 2 Homenium.
and so on in this fashion until Cantor kicks your ass.