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/sci/ - Science & Math

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File: 32 KB, 580x392, sunspot_decline.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
3232802 No.3232802 [Reply] [Original]

>What may be the science story of the century is breaking this evening, as heavyweight US solar physicists announce that the Sun appears to be headed into a lengthy spell of low activity, which could mean that the Earth – far from facing a global warming problem – is actually headed into a mini Ice Age.

>The announcement made on 14 June (18:00 UK time) comes from scientists at the US National Solar Observatory (NSO) and US Air Force Research Laboratory. Three different analyses of the Sun's recent behaviour all indicate that a period of unusually low solar activity may be about to begin.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/06/14/ice_age/

What do you /sci/entists make of this?

>> No.3232808

Original release.

http://www.nso.edu/press/SolarActivityDrop.html

>> No.3232818

>>3232808
This news will soon be buried by politicians who support the AGW.

>> No.3232839

>>3232802
I could fit that data with exp, <span class="math">\frac1\log[/spoiler], <span class="math">x^a[/spoiler], ...
But yeah, linear is fine too

>> No.3232844

>>3232839
R^2

>> No.3232854

>>3232844
That is to say what? It's obviously linear? Ehrm.

>> No.3232855
File: 13 KB, 480x323, 115.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
3232855

Winter Apocalypse here we come

>> No.3232870

>>3232854
With the correct parameters you can fit any function to any data...

>> No.3232884

>>3232870
My point was that you could fit this data well with a shitton of functions. Extrapolating 100 % into the future linearly is a pretty retarded thing to do with it.

>> No.3232893

>>3232884
Oh.

I guess it depends on the model whether the long term behaviour is linear or not. The R^2 would just be the measure of goodness of the model.

>> No.3232897

looks more like e^-ax to me

>> No.3232898

More graphs and stuff at the NSO link guys, cool stuff.

>> No.3232900

This interests me. Aside from the graph and line of best fit math, does /sci/ think this is legit?

>> No.3232906

>>3232893
I'd call the data inconclusive and the plot a political plot that's as unscientific as it gets.
>>3232897 exp
That would've been my guess as well, but the error bars make it completely negotiable hehe

>> No.3232903

I fucking hope so. I live in Florida and can't even go outside right now.

>> No.3232912
File: 24 KB, 640x480, iseewhatyoudidthere.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
3232912

>>3232898
>cool stuff
>cool

>> No.3232918

I do hope it's true, would make for a quite a fun change. Oh, all tropical tourist destinations would be booming in economical terms.

>> No.3232924

>>3232906
Explain. I don't see how it correlates to my statement. I made no conjecture concerning its validity.

>> No.3232931

>>3232900
NASA and the US Airforce were involved, looks legit to me.

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml

>> No.3232946
File: 65 KB, 500x375, 1269982629691.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
3232946

>yfw current sunspot activity is heading for a serious long term low

>yfw cosmic ray impacts (usually high energy protons) are an indirect progenitor of low altitude clouds

>yfw the generated clouds generally reflect more solar energy and distribute heat around the planet much faster than normal, causing an increase in storms and a slow decline in global temperature

>yfw the sun's heliopause usually deflects these protons to some degree, whereas our magnetic field isn't strong enough to fully deflect them

>yfw earth-bombarding cosmic rays are 19% higher than have ever been recorded

>yfw the last time this happened, it was the Dalton Minimum, and the Thames river froze over

>> No.3232948
File: 208 KB, 1024x768, ssn_predict_l.gif [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
3232948

>>3232906

It's a grand extrapolation yes, but not completely without reason.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/28/Sunspot_Numbers.png

We were recently through a sunspot minimum, and who's to say there won't be another phase like in the 1800's. Then again who's to say there will be one. Predicting the Sun is very hard, but the rise in solar activity has been very moderate when compared to past data.

>> No.3232959

>>3232808
From this article:
>"We are NOT predicting a mini-ice age. We are predicting the behavior of the solar cycle. In my opinion, it is a huge leap from that to an abrupt global cooling, since >the connections between solar activity and climate are still very poorly understood. My understanding is that current calculations suggest only a 0.3 degree C >decrease from a Maunder-like minimum, too small for an ice age. It is unfortunate that the global warming/cooling studies have become so politically polarizing."

And from reading the article, it just says that sunspot activity will drop significantly. Nothing to indicate a decrease in solar radiation or anything potentially affecting the earth's climate; though I'm no expert, just inferring from the article.

The article posted in the OP seems a bit biased towards this 'solving global warming', or something. Which would be nice, but I'm not going to assume anything.

>> No.3232973
File: 6 KB, 372x243, canada-flag.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
3232973

nonoticeabledifference.jpg

>> No.3233033

>>3232959
It wouldn't solve global warming. The CO2 is still there. Unless the sun is suddenly and inexplicably dying, we're going to see an increase in solar radiation after this minimum. Unless we remove that CO2, the Earth is going to continue warming up, it'll only be delayed by a decade or so. Maybe not even, maybe only slowed down.

>> No.3233102

>>3233033
Well, assuming a mini ice-age DOES set in because of this, I would think that we'd be able to replace petroleum and coal power with biofuels and nuclear/renewable within a 50-70 year window.

But what I would like to know is whether or not a decrease in sunspot activity would mean a decrease in solar radiation and effect the earth's climate in any way. I'm with you on the global warming thing, and it's still a big problem whether or not we get a mini ice age. But getting a mini ice age would just give us some extra time to solve it.

>> No.3233141

>possible mini-ice age
>insect life everywhere dies off
>no more fucking midges flying up my nose

Can't wait.

>> No.3233173

Dr. Frank Hill, associate director of the NSO's Solar Synoptic Network:
>We are NOT predicting a mini-ice age. We are predicting the behavior of the solar cycle. In my opinion, it is a huge leap from that to an abrupt global cooling, since the connections between solar activity and climate are still very poorly understood. My understanding is that current calculations suggest only a 0.3 degree C decrease from a Maunder-like minimum, too small for an ice age. It is unfortunate that the global warming/cooling studies have become so politically polarizing.

Mainstream media:
>Earth may be headed into a mini Ice Age within a decade

cool story journalists