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/sci/ - Science & Math

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2549411 No.2549411 [Reply] [Original]

Hey /sci/, I don't know where to post this so I'm gonna post it here because it involves criminology sort of, and criminology is a subset of sociology which isn't technically a science but its close enough. Anyway...

Say a man kills another man for some reason. Doesn't matter how, just that the victim is found 3 hours after it happens. The police have say a 97 chance of finding out who the killer is, and if they do indeed find out it would take them whatever the average time it usually takes. The killer flees the scene and attempts to leave the country. What is the best way to do this? He has a car, a cellphone, a laptop, enough money for a one way plane ticket, and a legitimate passport.

(I don't intend on killing anyone obviously, I just feel that if a situation were to arise knowledge on the timing/how to get out of the country in a hurry would be of a great help)

>> No.2549424

/b/ probably has more experience.

>> No.2549442

Situations like this are studied to a limited extent in game theory. They're called "pursuit-evasion games" and good strategy must incorporate randomness. If, as the "evading" player, you always choose a route that would seem to be the easiest, you will fail by reason of predictability.

>> No.2549452

It's easier to flee than to follow

>> No.2549457

>>2549442
Right. So it quickly becomes a cat-and-mouse game of "what does he know", "what does he know I know", "what does he know I know he knows", etc.

>> No.2549484

>>2549442
Interesting. I'll read up on that, thanks.

>> No.2549535

>>2549484
Just know that all the examples are chosen to be theoretically tractable, so they're quite abstract.

In real life, you have to consider not only getting away but how you will live once you've escaped. The countries that provide the highest chance of eluding the authorities long-term also provide the lowest standard of living. As an extreme example, a person can elude capture indefinitely in the Amazonian rain forest (in fact, there are fugitives wanted on drug trafficking charges who live there in small communities) but the rain forest is a harsh mistress.