[ 3 / biz / cgl / ck / diy / fa / ic / jp / lit / sci / vr / vt ] [ index / top / reports ] [ become a patron ] [ status ]
2023-11: Warosu is now out of extended maintenance.

/sci/ - Science & Math

View post   
File: 1.04 MB, 1159x809, muskmars.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
16006900 No.16006900 [Reply] [Original]

"best case 10 years, worst case 15 to 20 years"

It's been twelve years. Going by this genius' worst case scenario, does /sci/ believe we're gonna have a man on Mars in the next 8 years?

>> No.16006909

>>>/sci/sfg/

>> No.16006918
File: 787 KB, 1003x633, sfg_dont_go_there_02.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
16006918

>>16006909
Don't go there

>> No.16006922

>>16006900
Economic and political issues make such predictions impossible. At best, a rough "if everything goes well" prediction can be estimated but of course not everything will go well so any estimate should be seen as the soonest possible, not the latest.

>> No.16006963

that's nice but do you believe a man will step on mars in 8 years though?

>> No.16007043

>>16006900
> First human on Mars
Not before 2080
> First full self-driving car
Not before 2050
> First fully functional brain chip
Never
These are truths muskrat knows but too afraid to utter

>> No.16007080

>>16007043
now that's just shortminded

>> No.16007102

A human will not set foot on Mars until he steps off a rocket that will also be able to take him home. That's harder than coming home from the moon, but your rocket already has to be strong enough to leave Earth, and Mars is much easier to leave than Earth.
"A man on Mars in current year plus 20-30" is even more played out than "fusion is 40 years away".

>> No.16007115

>>16007102
>A human will not set foot on Mars until he steps off a rocket that will also be able to take him home.
wouldnt there be astronauts willing to live there and when the time came euthanize themselves? I feel like most would find it worth sacrifice for the privilige of experiencing it and an eternal legacy

>> No.16007116

I'd be shocked if Artemis isn't scrapped in the next 2-3 years, and we don't see a human being set foot on the moon, let alone Mars, this century.

>> No.16007125

>>16007043
>First full self-driving car
2030
>First fully functional brain chip
Hmmm.... 2040-2050, depending on what you mean by "fully functional"
>First human on Mars
Probably never, desu

>> No.16007440

>>16006900
>8 years
try 80

>> No.16008148

>>16007116
>I'd be shocked if Artemis isn't scrapped in the next 2-3 years
why

>> No.16008312

>>16007115
The question is not "are there astronauts willing to make a one-way trip? " but rather "is there a space programme willing to send an astronaut on a one-way trip?"

>> No.16008314

Name one useful thing a human can do out there that a robot cannot

>> No.16008326

>>16008314
hype funds

>> No.16008331

>>16008314
Literally everything. Even shoveling dirt.

>> No.16008351
File: 26 KB, 400x400, 1-mars-nasa-gov-jpg.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
16008351

>>16008314
Die for emotional engagement of mindless hordes who will just never care unless people are up there.
I think an orbital station, an ISS of Mars, should be our first goal - we have a lot of shared global experience of space station environments and perhaps more importantly, we can test them here before we ship them to Mars. Astronauts in orbit with real time control of a fleet of landers, high altitude balloon drones, etc, could perform the work of fifty separately launched landers and rovers etc. A space station above mars can experiment with extremely cheap (in relative terms) experimental descent modules for remote devices, and can be a hotbed for testing a Mars rocket that touches down and can leave the red planet with a human payload.
Mars Space Station is something we have the technology for, it challenges us on a few new ends, but it doesn't require any great leaps forward to achieve, but it may be enough to drive proposals of the paired rockets that use a minute quantity of their fuel to rotate and have some carnival ride gravity.
Mars Space Station baby

>> No.16008376

>>16008351
Boy, that canyon has a lot of room for activities

>> No.16009456

>>16008351
>Mars Space Station
its a good idea. a Geostationary mars space station would give permenant acess to an entire hemisphere while having a non variable communication delay to insurments on the ground which would simplify things massively. More importantly it would be substantially easier to get to than one closer to the surface.