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/sci/ - Science & Math

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15965782 No.15965782 [Reply] [Original]

how can there can be a 4% chance that I'll get bad sides from a med? either I'm going to get the sides or I won't, so that's either a 100% chance or a 0% chance.

>> No.15965860

Yes in one scenario you belong to category A (4/100) and in another scenario you belong to category B (96/100). You either belong to A or you don't and you either belong to B or you don't.

(0,5 * 0,04) / (0,5 * 0,96) = 0,04 / 0,96

You do A and don't B in one scenario and you do B and don't A in another scenario.

((0,5 * 0,04) + (0,5* 0,96)) + ((0,5 * 0,96) + (0.5 * 0,04)) = 1

>> No.15966052

>>15965782
If we knew everything then we wouldn't have probbilities. The either/or is exactly what it's about.

>> No.15966697

>>15965860
>>15966052
Hmmmm, it seems to me that it makes no sense to tell OP that he has a 4% chance of getting sides just because your knowledge is limited. That's a problem with your knowledge, not with the objective facts. The objective facts are that he has either a 100% chance or 0% chance of getting sides.
t. 85 IQ, btw.

>> No.15966704

My interpretation of the matter is that amongst tested population, 4% got the "bad sides" while the other didn't. So, it's a probability based on historical data collection. But I agree, something either will or will not occur. So, there is a 50% change you'll get bad sides and a 50% chance that you will not. Or... maybe, the bad sides will land on ... their side. ;)