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/sci/ - Science & Math

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15006307 No.15006307 [Reply] [Original] [archived.moe]

My wife saw a tiktok about the Monty Hall paradox and she didn't understand it. So I explained the usual "Imagine it with 100 doors and the moderator opens 98 of them" story. She still didn't get it and said "What if I was right with my first choice?" I then showed her the table with all possible outcomes on Wikipedia, but that's too many numbers for her.

Do you guys have a better and more intuitive explanation even a very unintelligent person will understand?

>> No.15006320
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>thinly veiled 0.99999...=1 thread

>> No.15006324
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>my wife
our wife

>> No.15006335

The probability of your INITIAL choice being correct, remains the same, regardless of whatever other doors are opened. So, still 1/N.

>> No.15006338

It's ok if she doesn't understand.

>> No.15006341


>> No.15006346

This was the only one that actually worked intuitively, with no thinking required, on me:
You have to realise that it's not one game, it's two small games played one after another. The first game is just "pick a door", and obviously there your chances are 1/3. The second game, "stay or switch", has two possibilities:
A) you think your 1/3 guess in the first game was right and stay, or
B) you decide that you were probably wrong, and switch.
These, A and B, are the only possible answers. A has a win-rate of 1/3, obviously, and so B *must* have a win-rate of 2/3.
That's all it is. No prognosticating about what Monty knows, no "what if there were 100 doors" nonsense, you just need to realise it boils down to betting on if a 1/3 guess was right or not.

>> No.15006357

>retard op can't explain it simply
OP you know the answer but you have no intuition on why the answer is right. Here's how I'll explain it you, and you can SHOW your wife this. Don't explain it, show it.

Take a deck of 52 cards. Remove all cards except the four aces. Her goal is to pick the ace of spades RANDOMLY. Each time, you inspect the remaining three and reveal two of them. Ask her if she'll switch or hold.

Repeat ten times. See what happens. Next include the full pack of 52 cards. Her goal is to select the ace of spades. Each time, inspect the remaining 51 cards and remove 50 cards that aren't the ace of spades. Ask her again if she wants to switch. Repeat ten times.

OP, since you're a retard I need to clarify this. Introduce this as a way to test if YOU'RE wrong, not if she's wrong. She'll only agree if you make it a group activity and say you're unsure and it'll be fun to test what happens. Be sure to tell her you acknowledge you might be wrong.

Make sure to record your results with both experiments. What general trends can you infer from the experiments? How likely do you think such results are a coincidence?

>> No.15006362

This is a great way to show that opening all but one door reduces it to a 50/50 chance.

>> No.15006371

Women are for breeding not for math

>> No.15006387


The Monty hall problem is a completely artificial problem that has no bearing on any real world problems. But its pretty simple, the critical thing is that the host knows which door the prize is behind and never opens that one. If you stick with your first choice you have a 1/3 chance , if you switch its like getting to choose two doors from the start since if the prize is behind either you win so you have a 2/3 chance if you switch.

>> No.15006391

Breeding, beating and baking.

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