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/sci/ - Science & Math

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Why do NPCs always introduce their subjective feelings into problems like pic related when there exists a mathematically objective solution? Are there studies on why so many people value feelings more than logic and refuse to accept a logical answer?

 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 14:09:09 2022 No.14772042 >>14772037What is the logical reason for your starting this inane thread? Protip: I will run your proof through an automated theorem checker and if it doesn't check out, you're an emotional, feminine tranny LARPing as a rational intellectual.
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 14:09:48 2022 No.14772046 >>14772037What do I get if I chose the green button and didnt win the $50 million?  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 14:10:41 2022 No.14772049 >>14772046You get to enjoy the comfort of knowing that you are highly rational and intellectual like the cattle-brained NPC who started this thread.  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 14:11:59 2022 No.14772055 What is the mathematically optimal solution here?  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 14:12:34 2022 No.14772058 >>14772037NPCs are bad at mathematical reasoning (you could probably find NPCs with$5m to their name who would press the red button), but it isn't objective if you can only run it once since you don't get to realize your equity. consider utility, risk of ruin, bankroll management etc.
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 14:14:53 2022 No.14772062 >>14772058You're the NPC here. The quesiton isn't asking anything objective in the first place.
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 14:16:16 2022 No.14772068   >>14772037>there exists a mathematically objective solutionThere is none.Rational expected value is only a thing when you retry the experiment several times over. This is purely "would you feel worse winning 1 million but knowing you missed out on 50 million or winning 0$but knowing you missed out on 1 million$". For most people the 1 million would be better but if you're rich enough 1 million is spare change the 50 million looks more attractive, although anyone that got rich would likely value every penny and not risk the opportunity of losing 1 million whereas anyone that was born rich and not educated properly would pick the 50 million.Honestly though those who pick the 50 million are the type to fail at life, relying on luck is the same as saying you're worthless, a real smart guy would figure out how to make 50 million from the 1 million.
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 14:23:30 2022 No.14772091 >>14772068I agree with this except the last part. You are luckier than you think.
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 14:38:34 2022 No.14772132 >>14772037Unironically would press the red button. My current balance to one million is a much smaller step than one million to 50M. Also, with green you risk a lifetime of remorse. I could live better with the red button than with the green button and bad luck. To all highschoolers who think they figured it out because 50/2 > 1, rationality doesn't just depend on expectation values.
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 14:42:39 2022 No.14772136 >>14772037I would absolutely press the red button. Because a bird in the hand is better than a hundred in the bush. Nassim Taleb has created a theoretical model to justify such decisions if you feel like common sense isn't enough of a good explanation.The problem you present isnt a mathematics problem either way. Choosing any button makes sense depending on your personal goals.
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 14:42:45 2022 No.14772137 >>14772132>rationality doesn't just depend on expectation values.It probably does. The problem is that the expected value in terms of dollars, in the narrow context of this problem, tells you nothing about what's rational to do in the broader context of optimizing expected value in the broader context of a real life and real values.
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 14:55:24 2022 No.14772175 >>14772037your "logical answer" serves nothing more than masturbating yourself. from a human aspect both are tickets out of poverty but one is guaranteed the other isn't. more money=/=more happy
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:00:55 2022 No.14772195 This is that bells curve with the same opinion on the ends and the average retard in the middle thinking he should hit the green button, not realizing expected values only matter when you're going to be doing the same thing multiple times.
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:04:13 2022 No.14772204 Press the red. You have a guaranteed chance of a nice monetary reward and that cannot fail. You're not going to regret not being greedy and pressing the green, but if you press the green and don't get the 50 mil you will forever regret not pressing the guaranteed 1mil. I consider it to be the best possible play primarily because it cannot go wrong.
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:07:46 2022 No.14772216 >>14772132It's really dumb to press green unless you were born into the top 0.1%, red with compound interest opens countless possibilities in life.
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:08:30 2022 No.14772219 >>14772037The impact of a dollar on your quality of life will diminish the more of them you have already, so the first one million can easily be worth more than the subsequent 49.
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:09:12 2022 No.14772222 >>14772037"Subjective feelings," as OP puts it, is a thought process independent of the rational mind that often time can be both logical and correct. The problem is western society writ large doesn't value this part of the mind and instead focuses ALL public education and training exclusively on the purely logical side of the mind. This leads to errors to occur in the logical of the logical mind that never get corrected for the lifetime of the individual. These errors can persist, and even grow and build on themselves leading to wildly inaccurate conclusions, but this is no different than doing science with bad facts and never checking those facts. IMO this is no different then the term PEBKAC. Problem exists between keyboard and computer, except in this case it'd be more accurate to say something to the effect of problem exists between physical brain and the soul, and this is quintessentially why western society can't acknowledge the problem they have. They've relegated the soul to the domain of religion, and religion is deeply rooted in upholding tradition and that means not changing/growing.>>14772055The answer itself is subjective, or based on the person pressing the button. Green should only be pressed if a person can afford to lose $1million.  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:09:38 2022 No.14772224 >>14772175>from a human aspect both are tickets out of poverty but one is guaranteed the other isn't. more money=/=more happyFrom a human aspect, pressing the red button is almost guaranteed misery while the green means either nothing changes or all your problems are solved.  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:10:46 2022 No.14772228 >>14772055Depends on the utility function. OP just assumes that U(25 million) > U(1 million)  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:12:37 2022 No.14772231 >>14772224>pressing the red button is almost guaranteed miseryWhy would a million dollars make you miserable but 50 million not?  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:12:47 2022 No.14772232 >>14772037People are risk averse and risk management isn't illogical. If you're so risk averse that you'd give up 49 million for insurance then that's your business.  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:15:01 2022 No.14772238 >>14772231Because a million is just enough to LARP as upper class for a short time while getting yourself into a world of shit, while 50 is enough to spend the rest of your life living comfortably.  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:16:13 2022 No.14772240 >>14772232I feel a large part of why people are more risk averse regarding this thought experiment is because it is a fixed 50% chance of that or nothing at all. It's unlike most risk where you can try to mitigate and manipulate your risk through careful and clever planning, this risk is completely beyond your control and will always take everything if it happens. So naturally the risk is much heavier than the risks people typically face in day to day life.  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:16:28 2022 No.14772241 File: 36 KB, 640x455, 1659703951244208.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>14772037This is literally the best argument for socialism. That is, it's a case where it's better to reason on average of outcomes if this is spread among enough experiments. Meanwhile, no sane person would press the green button as an individual.  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:18:03 2022 No.14772242 >>14772037So I'm actually familial with the Math that says green is better.The problem? It doesn't really apply to many people. There's no law of large numbers to guarantee you win in the long run with this approach since you have 1 shot.Since 1 million is such a large sum relative to most peoples current wealth and they only get 1 shot you should probably always take red. It doesn't benefit you that much more if you're student poorfag that you stand to gain 50 times as much money when it's not guaranteed since you have such a large chance to lose it for many getting 1 million would multiply their wealth.If you're Bill Gates this does not apply.You could consider this an applied example of the Kelly criterion and most people do not have the money to waste 1 million dollars on a 50% chance to turn it into 50 million.I'm not gonna write it out for you in formula.  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:18:20 2022 No.14772245 >>14772238Not everyone aspires to an upper class lifestyle. Lots of people would be perfectly content with a comfortable middle-class lifestyle, and a million dollars well managed can provide that.  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:20:06 2022 No.14772248 >>14772245A million dollars gives you nothing.  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:21:53 2022 No.14772252 >>14772248A million dollars is enough to buy a house, a car, and have enough left over to invest. How is that nothing? Are you Jeff Bezos or something?  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:22:40 2022 No.14772257 >>14772238Short time? Dude you could just live forever on profits from investing 1 million dollars. Just buy and rent farmland and get$30.000 in year rents. Enough to live somewhere cheap.People want safety. Wealth is just a desire to ensure safety but often it backfires like when some greedy dictator with trilions gets rekt by someone he fucked over
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:22:51 2022 No.14772258 >>14772252>A million dollars is enough to buy a houseIn a place where no one really wants to live.
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:23:51 2022 No.14772263 >>14772257Alright, kiddie.
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:24:13 2022 No.14772264 >>14772248A million dollars right now pretty much insures I retire in peace and luxury, freeing a lot of time and money to do other things.
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:24:39 2022 No.14772266 >>14772258You really must be Jeff Bezos, because if you're ruling out any house worth less than a million dollars as being somewhere "no one really wants to live" you are completely out of touch with 99% of the population.
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:24:55 2022 No.14772267 >>14772264>this is what poorfags actually believeDo you live in India or something?
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:27:51 2022 No.14772271 >>14772266Show me where you can buy a decent house or apartment for a million or less. >inb4 flyover state in Burgerland>inb4 other third world countries>inb4 eastern europe
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:28:44 2022 No.14772273 >>1477224850 million dollars gives you nothing as well because money is not true wealth. Wealth can only be acquired from money when you lose said money, and yet you can still acquire wealth without money. Ultimately money is nothing. Try to stop for a minute and think about what TRUE wealth is, independent of any numerical denomination you might try to assign to it. After you know what true wealth is, try and think about how much money you'd need to acquire it and/or if it'd be easier to acquire by means that are not monetary.>>14772222check'n quads
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:29:23 2022 No.14772274 >>14772037People who are sure of pressing green are falsely assuming that each additional dollar is of equal utility. Do you think that someone with 100 billion dollars is 100 thousand times happier than someone with 1 million?
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:29:30 2022 No.14772275 >>14772055It's utility of random variable vs utility of constant. Utility functions are concave in practice (poor people have more use for $1 than rich people and the richer you are the less utility an extra$1 gives you), so Jensen's inequality says smaller certain payouts are preferred to bigger random payouts up to a point. This critical point depends on the concavity of your utility function (i.e. risk aversion).
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:30:21 2022 No.14772278 >>14772267A billion people live in India. How is their opinion not important? Most people are poorAlmost no one would reject 1 million dollar over the chance of 50 or even over a chance of 1 trillion dollars. I would press the red even if the amount was reduced to $100.000  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:30:40 2022 No.14772279 File: 41 KB, 641x729, 463534.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>14772273>50 million dollars gives you nothing as well because money is not true wealth.Ok, retard.  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:31:47 2022 No.14772282 >>14772278>t no one would reject 1 million dollar over the chance of 50 or even over a chance of 1 trillion dollarsMaybe, but most people in the world are third worlders, actual retards or (probably) both, so that's not saying much.  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:31:53 2022 No.14772283 >>14772271So a lot of places? What are you even saying?>show me where to buy cheap>lists a bunch of cheap placesHello?  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:32:46 2022 No.14772285 >>14772271No I refuse to do that, because you're just going to pull some reason out of your ass for why "nobody would want to live there" anyways. You already disqualified all flyover states, which have a lot of great communities I'd love to live in. And anything that isn't America you're going to call a third world country and disqualify on those grounds. You're basically just unwilling to accept anything that isn't central NY or LA, but I'd rather shoot myself than live in those hellholes anyways.  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:32:52 2022 No.14772286 >>14772283Notice how you are unable to satisfy my fair and simple criteria of not living in a shithole.  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:33:18 2022 No.14772288 >>14772248KEKWhy are the most clueless people the ones who are always so sure of themselves?Warren Buffett himself said the first 100k are the hardest to get. Once you have 100k in your bank, your life changes.Now who should I trust, one of the most consistent investors, a legend, or a retarded idiot on 4chan?  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:33:35 2022 No.14772291 >>14772271>WAAAAH I CANT LIVE IN BEVERLY HILLS ITS FUCKING OVER /biz/ tourists are the worst  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:34:00 2022 No.14772292 >>14772285>you're just going to pull some reason out of your ass for why "nobody would want to live there" anywaysI promise you I won't.>anything that isn't America you're going to call a third world country and disqualify on those groundsI wouldn't. I actually disqualify the uS as a whole for being a disgusting third world shithole where only an utter degenerate would want to live.  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:35:03 2022 No.14772295 >>14772055You will acquire$1M in your lifetime. It won't be much money by then. You will probably acquire >$10M in your lifetime, but you will need that much money just to build a (likely smaller) nest egg with which to retire.$50M, though, that depends on inflation and wage growth.It depends on your utility function. If the goal is to maximize money, and if money is not useful, then the EV of the $50M button is$25M, and the EV of the other button is $1M.$25M>$1M, so the answer is obvious.If your utility function does not care for money, then the buttons should be ignored and you will continue upon your obscure quest which somehow lacks instrumental goals. If your utility function requires that you become a singleton, and if that action costs with$1M, you should hit that $1M button (EV = 100%). If your utility function requires you become a cattle rancher, then the problem becomes complicated as$1M is not enough, yet, $1M would be a much better starting point to reaching the goal than$0. Likewise, $50M may also not be sufficient for your function.Given this, it is easy to see that a rational&logical being may choose either button if it had need of >$50M.>>14772204This is a good take, but it ignores that $1M is something everyone under age 40 with a job will naturally acquire with minimal effort.  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:35:27 2022 No.14772296 >>14772282And? What is your point? Most people are poor. Rich people would choose the green button for obvious reason.  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:35:29 2022 No.14772297 >>14772288>Warren Buffett himself said the first 100k are the hardest to get. Once you have 100k in your bank, your life changes.That may be true, you mouth-breathing imbecile. Now reflect on the difference between the context of Buffet's statement and the one of some normie retard getting$1m for free.
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:35:52 2022 No.14772300 >>14772295Dude You're actually and I meant it unironically, retarded
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:36:35 2022 No.14772301 >>14772286No one cares about your criteria. Go fuck yourself
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:36:56 2022 No.14772302 >>14772297Don't even @ me you idiot
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:36:56 2022 No.14772303 >>14772296>What is your point?That if you're the average normie living in a first world country you would be better off trying to for 50M. 1M is only going to make your life worse.
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:37:57 2022 No.14772306 >>14772302You've been exposed as a brainlet and now you're shitting and pissing yourself with rage. :^)
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:37:58 2022 No.14772307 >>14772292See>>14772301Your criteria are bullshit and arbitrary, and I'm not going to waste my time.
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:38:18 2022 No.14772309 >>14772303Is this cope for wanting but not having a million? >A-ackshually i never wanted a millionSour Fucking Grapes
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:38:58 2022 No.14772313 >>14772307I accept your full and direct concession, mouth-breathing American retard. Why would anyone besides Mexican illegals wnat to live in your failed state?
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:39:58 2022 No.14772316 >>14772037the green button is only the rational choice if the marginal utility of 50M is >2x the 1M.It's definitely not 50xif you have no money, then the difference between getting 50M isn't going to be that different from getting 1M
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:40:02 2022 No.14772317 >>14772309I could use an extra million. A normie mouth breather like you, on the other hand, will inevitably use it to make his life worse. This happens on a regular basis: retards get moderate amounts of money they didn't earn and end up worse off.
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:43:09 2022 No.14772328 >>14772313I don't even live in the US, I just recognize your bullshit for what it is.
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:44:22 2022 No.14772329 >>14772328>I don't even live in the USWhere do you live? Let's see how much an apartment costs in a reasonable area in your country, assuming you live in the first world (which I now doubt).
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:44:26 2022 No.14772330 >>14772316Pretty muchBut /v/ and /biz/ tourists have no idea of actual business economics. They think they're hot shit for trading some shitcoin on a serious looking terminal and larp like they're on a Bloomberg terminal. Case in points that guy itt
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:44:46 2022 No.14772332 >>14772271literaly every single US state has good houses under 250kget out of your disgusting megacities, midwit
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:45:25 2022 No.14772334 >>14772332>every single US stateI said no failed third-world banana republics.
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:47:43 2022 No.14772343 Red button. If you click that, you get a million. If you click green you will get nothing. And then the developer will just lie and tell you 'sorry m8'.
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:48:08 2022 No.14772346 File: 167 KB, 659x525, GeniusApu.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>14772037The right answer is red. It's not about mathematics being wrong. Expected value isn't expected utility.Expected Value:1 * 1,000,000 = 1,000,000.5 * 50,000,000 = 25,000,000Expected Utility:1 * ln(1,000,000) = 13.82.5 * ln(50,000,000) = 8.87This kind of problem with naive expected value has been known since Bernoulli published Commentaries of the Imperial Academy of Science of Saint Petersburg in 1738.
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:48:48 2022 No.14772348 >>14772329Fine then. I live in Sweden. Let's see what sort of arbitrary reason you come up with to justify how nothing you find under 10 million SEK is worth it.
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:49:56 2022 No.14772352 >>14772346Dangerously basedHaven't seen such a brilliant exposure of brainlets in a while
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:50:55 2022 No.14772356 If my savings are 100money, or 1000money1mil would make it either 10,000x or 1,000xwhile50mil would make it either 500,000x or 50,000xSure the 50mil is damn tempting but then again i have also lost red/black roll in roulette so many times that it would not land this time either and i would just btfo with 1mil
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:52:53 2022 No.14772359 File: 59 KB, 500x332, 32534.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>14772348Alright, I stand corrected. I just checked and housing in Sweden is dirt-cheap.
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 15:59:49 2022 No.14772372 >>14772252A house? For less than 1 million dollars? Where? Not in America surely.
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 16:01:51 2022 No.14772378 >>14772359I'm genuinely shocked, I thought for sure you were just baiting me. But I wouldn't say it's dirt cheap, I'd say it's more a case of house pricing going completely haywire in dense metropolitan parts of the world due to easy credit access, large concentrations of valuable corporations drawing in high-wealth individuals, large landlords squeezing the market, and the general view that housing is an investment. Even in Sweden there's a lot of talk about a real-estate bubble, and prices aren't generally considered low. They just seem low because other parts of Europe and the US are so insanely expensive, particularly the capital regions of especially wealthy countries or large US states.
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 16:03:21 2022 No.14772380 >>14772359Kill yourself now loser, only way to save your dignity
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 16:04:46 2022 No.14772385 >>14772372In DFW Texas $300K would be a very nice suburban house. It's like that in most of the US excluding New York and California.  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 16:05:30 2022 No.14772387 >>14772037>Are there studies on why so many people value feelings more than logic and refuse to accept a logical answer?just watch any post 2010 america documentary, What is a woman is my favorite  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 16:10:04 2022 No.14772395 >>14772380I realize you're a worthless subhuman whose entire sense of value comes from winning reddit debates, but I don't care that much.  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 16:11:52 2022 No.14772400 >>14772258I'm happy with my 3+2 on a half acre lot in the foothills of the Blue Ridge Mountains. I paid$180k for it five years ago. There is a bubble right now but that's not permanent and even if I had to pay $300k for my house, that's still$700k left over. But I could go down to Atlanta and sink the entire million into a condo where there are homeless shitting outside the front door and constant racial "unrest". If that's what you aspire to, then yes, you need more than a million for the privilege of having drug addicts shit on your doorstep and break into your car to steal the $0.37 they saw on the console.  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 16:12:07 2022 No.14772403 >>14772378I agree with your general assessment but as you say yourself:>other parts of Europe and the US are so insanely expensive, particularly the capital regions of especially wealthy countries or large US statesThat's what I had in mind when making my judgment and it certainly applies where I come from.  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 16:13:36 2022 No.14772409 >>14772346This anon is correct. Utility functions are often approximated with $\frac{c^{1-\eta}-1}{1-\eta}$ where $\eta$ is anywhere between 0.2 to 10 depending on the study. Even if you take $\eta = 0.2$ , the green button beats the red button hands down. Only people with unusually low risk aversion would pick green.  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 16:16:04 2022 No.14772411 >>14772395Sour fucking grapes. Loser. You have been talking here for over an hour  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 16:19:36 2022 No.14772416 >>14772385I heard in pitsburgh it often runs up to 3-6 mil  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 16:21:04 2022 No.14772420 >>14772411It's really funny to watch you lose your mind over it. Keep it up. Life must be stressful for a retard who worries about his 4chan reputation.  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 16:24:41 2022 No.14772426 File: 70 KB, 220x229, 27A4E6C8-4EC4-449C-A978-65B56666E3E8.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >this thread  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 16:25:59 2022 No.14772427 >>14772416>I heardYou're connected to the internet. You can go check real estate sites for yourself. Also that anon specified a suburban house so don't run off to Zillow and find the most expensive penthouse in a skyscraper in the middle of the city.  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 16:27:20 2022 No.14772432 File: 968 KB, 1619x1872, streaming house.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] Cancel your subscriptions, get a house.  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 16:27:44 2022 No.14772433 >>14772403Yes, that's pretty common. People who grow up in those places end up having that as their frame of reference for what reasonable housing costs. The massive disconnect between house pricing in the really expensive metropolitan areas and everywhere else is very jarring. Of course I can understand not wanting to be forced from your home city by an overheated housing market.The people who do manage to live in those expensive areas end up rationalizing how everything not in those areas is garbage and subhuman and that's why it's worth paying so much, and that's what I figured you were doing, but I guess that wasn't the case.  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 16:31:19 2022 No.14772436 >>14772433Or maybe you're just lucky to live in a country where your perspective is applicable.  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 16:33:21 2022 No.14772441 >>14772432>black neighborsyeah no thanks  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 16:33:58 2022 No.14772444 >>14772436What do you mean by that?  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 16:42:23 2022 No.14772458 >>14772441east charleston used to be nice, it is now a nigger filled, crime ridden slum. 50 years ago charleston tore down it's black neighborhood to build a highway, but they didn't rid themselves of the black problem fully and its now grown back to being worse than it ever has been before.  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 16:44:13 2022 No.14772466 Press the red and use it to make$50M.
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 16:44:16 2022 No.14772467 >>14772444You keep trying to make some dumb political points about urban vs. rural or whatever, but the fact of the matter is that housing in Sweden is relatively cheap even in the capital (at least according to Google). Moreover, as a general rule of thumb, if you stray too far from urban areas, you have to deal with shit infrastructure, nigger-tier people and trouble finding decent work. If this doesn't apply in your country, then again, just consider yourself lucky.
 >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 17:17:46 2022 No.14772568 >>14772295> $1M is something everyone under age 40 with a job will naturally acquire with minimal effort.pay attention, this is guy that wont sell the top. dont be like this faggot. hey cum guzzling faggot, given that ill make a million over the next 20 years, then whats the compound return if i choose 1 million now?  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 17:20:20 2022 No.14772580 >>14772346damn anon you just made me hard  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 17:26:21 2022 No.14772598 >>14772037I'm homeless, so I press the red button, and I don't care what you fucking nerds think.  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 17:33:23 2022 No.14772607 >>14772037It’s hard to objectify the expected quality of life increase of receiving$1 million vs $50 million. For many (if not most) people, 1 million dollars would be life changing. It could mean escaping poverty or being able to buy a house and start a family. That kind of guaranteed quality of life improvement is worth more to me than a coin flip chance of being super wealthy.  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 17:37:13 2022 No.14772615 >>14772222wrong(or not...I just like saying 'wrong' to all effort posts)  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 17:39:57 2022 No.14772620 >>1477256825 million  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 17:48:53 2022 No.14772648 Ideally you'll find someone who will insure you and pay out 25 million if the green button fails, for the cost of handing them 25 million (or a bit more, to make it worth their while) if it succeeds.  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 17:50:17 2022 No.14772651 >>14772648You have to pay insurers before the event, not after  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 17:51:19 2022 No.14772656 >>14772346Some of us can't describe the reason behind our intuition that red is the better choice as well as you can. Therefore feelings do matter. That was what I felt all along, even though I didn't have big fancy math terminology to say it.  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 17:54:08 2022 No.14772663 >>14772648That's assuming you can find someone who'll want to bear this kind of risk. If you can, then it's optimal.  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 18:16:26 2022 No.14772717 >>14772663If they wouldn't accept and you don't want to be greedy, there's a lot of room for better deals for them. Have them pay you 10 million if you lose and you pay them 40 million if you win, that's still a guaranteed 10 million for you and much less risk form them  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 19:22:30 2022 No.14772898 >>14772663>>14772717Just find someone rich that can bear the loss. Sell the green button for 10 million and it should be a good deal for them.  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 19:24:36 2022 No.14772903 >>14772898As an alternative don't push the green button, just use it as a coin worth 25 million.  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 19:41:29 2022 No.14772958 >>14772037ITT: OP gets blown off  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 20:02:17 2022 No.14773021 >>14772037Easy, I'd choose the green button as my only button and spam press it. What are you guys thinking pressing the red button? It never says you can't press it more than once, just that you can only choose one button to press. Yeah, my IQ is over 9000  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 20:03:38 2022 No.14773022 >>14773021>you only have ONE button press  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 20:04:35 2022 No.14773025 >>14773021>It never says you can't press it more than once,Jajaja but you are wrong. The posts explicitly says you only have "one button press"  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 20:19:42 2022 No.14773077 >>14772274Depends on the person. If you think everything available for purchase is worthless shit, then you would need a large amount of money such to fund the creation of objects actually worth purchasing. Personally I would probably need at least a billion to get what I want.  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 20:21:28 2022 No.14773080 >>14773022Laws are for the poor.  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 20:37:51 2022 No.14773125 File: 378 KB, 1699x883, ok boomer.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>14772441Ok Boomer!  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 22:52:51 2022 No.14773364 >>14772037What if your family is going to be killed by the cartel if you don't come up with 500k tomorrow... The choice can be statistically rigorous but it's still a personal choice as it pertains to the life of the chooser.  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 22:59:35 2022 No.14773375 File: 9 KB, 225x225, Pepe_Cigar.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>14772037A starving man would rather have the guarantee of one meal then the chance of fifty.I would press the green button.  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 23:01:03 2022 No.14773377 File: 113 KB, 720x810, PHretard.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 23:03:02 2022 No.14773381 >>147725681*1.08^256 million, which is also approximately the number of Jews that died in the Holocaust  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 23:07:27 2022 No.14773387 >>14772037>primes people to say red button in the OP post  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 23:16:01 2022 No.14773406 Auction off your button press to a group of professional gamblers and game theorists for between 1-25m.  >> Anonymous Fri Aug 19 23:22:20 2022 No.14773415 >>14772037why do your subjective feelings prefer mathematically objective solutions?  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 00:01:27 2022 No.14773477 This thread is starting to make my teeth hurt. Expected value only makes sense for things you do over and over, not for one time events.It is only "mathematically" correct to choose the green button if you can play the game multiple times. Otherwise it is always a matter of the value to you of the win versus the loss. The proper rationality is not mathematical but relational; does the loss of the million dollars hurt you more than the chance of the gain of 50 million dollars? Unless you are a billionaire, OF COURSE IT DOES!  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 00:10:26 2022 No.14773492 >>14772037There is no mathematically objective solution, since the utility function is inherently subjective. A homeless man on the street would be perfectly rational to take the million dollars because it's more important that he get off the street than risk a 50/50 chance of staying there for an extra$49 million.
 >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 00:14:13 2022 No.14773497 File: 1.79 MB, 3000x2317, Rich.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>14773477>does the loss of the million dollars hurt you more than the chance of the gain of 50 million dollars? Unless you are a billionaire, OF COURSE IT DOES!Not really,A million is not enough to retire on, it would make life much easier, but I would still have to work.50 million means me and my entire family could retire to a good life.The green button is the best button.
 >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 00:18:56 2022 No.14773507 >>14773492>There is no mathematically objective solution, since the utility function is inherently subjective.You can be directionally objective without needing to get to an exact solution.The objective part is that some better calculations than naive expected value which use a directionally better transformation like making it logarithmic can be supported with experimental evidence as more closely matching the results in aggregate of many random participants in a problem like this thread's one.The closer you match the larger number of participants the largest number of times across multiple trials the more you can say you're approaching an objectively correct solution.Across large numbers of participants it's no longer subjective and you can see a pattern and disregard the silly noise of retards trying to be special.
 >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 00:23:18 2022 No.14773511 ITT nobody here studies economicsThe utility from money is not linear, that first 1 million is more utility than the second million which is more utility than the 3rd, etc.Consider U($) = ln(x+1)With 1 million expected value, your expected utility is 13.8 and the expected utility for the 50 million button is a 50% chance of 0 and 50% chance of 17.7.Thus your expected utility is higher with the guaranteed 1 million  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 00:25:07 2022 No.14773513 >>14773511Someone posted that exact utility calculation already, anon:>>14772346  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 00:25:46 2022 No.14773515 I would always choose the red button.I can live on 100k for 10 years with that money, this would allow me to pursue endeavors that could gain me even more money.  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 00:26:11 2022 No.14773517 File: 313 KB, 638x359, eb7.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 00:32:48 2022 No.14773526 >>14772037This is an interesting problem from the perspective of Judaism (and also materialism since they're determinists)In essence, the choice doesn't matter, you can press red, green, or neither, since the amount of money you will earn in a given year was already predetermined in Heaven, if you are supposed to win 50 million in that year, you will no matter what. If you are supposed to earn 1 million, you will no matter what. If you are supposed to not earn anything astronomical, you won't no matter what.With that said, not choosing any buttom would be a good action since it would be an act of faith and thus increase your merit.  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 00:35:41 2022 No.14773528 >>14773507None of this is relevant to my post. There is no objective answer, regardless of experiments.  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 00:40:48 2022 No.14773531 >>14773528It's objective.You can objectively say X formula predicts actual decisions with a success rate of 95% based on Y number of random participant trials.  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 00:40:59 2022 No.14773532 >>14772037no ones an npc, every person alive had to make a plan to come here  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 00:42:40 2022 No.14773534 >>14773531>You can objectively say X formula predicts actual decisions with a success rate of 95% based on Y number of random participant trials.Again irrelevant. It's objectively true that the answer is subjective.  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 00:45:21 2022 No.14773536 >>14773534Nope. A success rate based on experimental evidence is objective.It's subjective for one person, but you can get past that issue and make it objective by taking down the results of multiple participants in aggregate.Your opinion about the Beatles is subjective, but the sales numbers for Beatles albums is objective. Subjectivity cam be solved for in most cases simply by aggregating.  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 00:55:54 2022 No.14773549 >>14773511Plenty of people already gave the same answer. This isn't arcane knowledge.  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 00:58:28 2022 No.14773553 File: 6 KB, 225x225, 32524.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>14773536>just make your decision according to some aggregate, bro>it's rational and objectiveWhy is this board so full of disgustingly moronic individuals?  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 01:02:30 2022 No.14773556 >>14773553I didn't say mske your decision based on that.I said you can objectively measure how accurate a utility function is by using experimental data from large numbers of participants.  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 01:04:50 2022 No.14773558 >>14773556>I said you can objectively measure how accurate a utility function isWhat's the point of an """objective""" utility function that no one can rationally use, retard?  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 01:08:27 2022 No.14773561 >>14773558It models behavior accurately. Might be useful if you're a marketer.Don't know why you're so fixated on your one personal decision. You're one data point. Most likely you would match up with the function that's accurate to the largest number of participants, but you might not and it doesn't matter either way since you don't build anything useful based on a single person's answer.  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 01:10:58 2022 No.14773569 >>14772037Instant$1,000,000. Invest it and just keep living my minimal life.
 >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 01:11:03 2022 No.14773571 >>14773561>Don't know why you're so fixated on your one personal decisionMaybe because that's what the thread is about.
 >> Jealous Sat Aug 20 01:13:48 2022 No.14773575 File: 905 KB, 1x1, TIMESAND.pdf [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] economic analysis
 >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 01:15:10 2022 No.14773577 I live in a third world country making $500 per month (which is a lot compared to most people) where the dollar possess gigantic purchasing power. Of course it's RED.  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 01:16:37 2022 No.14773581 >>14772037>Why do NPCsBing Bang fake , Michelson Moreley bullshit, Evolution Theorie absurd, climate change wording for idiots, Sea level rising neglectable, Covid a chimera PCR test dumbshit, the whole virus story a fairytale but muuh, pressing this or that non existing knob is "emotional"The current state of science and /sci  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 01:32:34 2022 No.14773608 File: 134 KB, 1920x1080, super-mario-64-mod-lets-the-game-run-at-a-crazy-60fps.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>14772037I half press both.  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 01:42:59 2022 No.14773628 >Do you buy a stock?>Or do you buy a out of the money call?Bird in hand.  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 02:10:26 2022 No.14773666 File: 487 KB, 2560x1280, African_Slum.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>14773577 With Green you could rule a city in your country.  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 02:19:24 2022 No.14773683 I'll take the 1 million. That's a lot of money and can give me financial freedom. The people who chose 50m are either gamblers or don't know how probability works  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 02:53:47 2022 No.14773724 File: 976 KB, 750x675, 10F1A595-02D3-4963-89A6-543F27E9F6E6.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>14772037>50% chanceWhy should I believe you? It’s much harder to scam me out of a 100% chance.  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 02:58:41 2022 No.14773730 >>14773536>A success rate based on experimental evidence is objective.Irrelevant, a success rate is not the answer. The answer is subjective. >It's subjective for one person, but you can get past that issueNope. This is as silly as saying the answer is objective because you can ask a person and observe their answer.  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 03:36:59 2022 No.14773778 >>14772037Red button obviously. The chance of getting 1 million is certain and is larger than the chance of getting 50 million.  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 03:52:32 2022 No.14773798 >>14772037Red button is for poor people and greedy people who want to take care of themselves.Green button is for those who want to take care of their family and friends.  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 04:02:42 2022 No.14773821 >>14772037Green. 1 mill ain't shit anymore. Unironically YOLO, might as well go for the legendary win. As others pointed out, if you're piss broke you go with the 1 million obviously.  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 06:37:33 2022 No.14774083 Imagine not taking the safe milly and throwing it in some nice investments or simply buy a house and retire and chill.>But noooooo I can't afford 500 jet skisSorry, you got nothing instead lmao. This really is the /sci/ brainlet test. Muh probability means nothing when you get nothing because you were greedy  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 07:20:57 2022 No.14774177 File: 27 KB, 600x556, 73c.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] NOOOO YOU CANNOT USE A MAXIMIN STRATEGY BECAUSE THATS IRRATIONAL AND YOU JUST CANT  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 07:34:21 2022 No.14774202 >>14772037Hedging one's bets is rational. Doing a simple average because "mathematics is so awesome!! :DD" is irrational.  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 08:00:33 2022 No.14774277 >>14772037the utility of a certain 1 million is much higher to me than of an uncertain 50 millionmy life would be changed with complete certainty in the first case, but it would be a coin flip in the secondi would press the left button for sure, no matter how high the right button was, it could be one trillion  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 08:12:55 2022 No.14774301 >>14774277but there would be a number for the first button being so low that you wouldnt press it150k50k10ka threshold exists, maybe not dependent on the second but instead on the person  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 08:15:54 2022 No.14774309 >>14774301dunno man, even 10k would let me quit my current shit job and try to find something more comfortable, even if i couldn't buy a house and invest from it like i could with one millionthere would be a threshold once you got low enough yeah, it depends on the first button  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 08:17:16 2022 No.14774313 >>14774309you need investment and saving in your life.get proficient and youll see your money stabilise and grow isntead of struggling the way you describejust saiyan.  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 08:17:52 2022 No.14774315 >>14774313must be nice to have a monthly wage higher than 300 bucks  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 08:18:41 2022 No.14774316 >>14774301There would also be a number low enough for the second button that you wouldn't press it. /sci/ is unironically the brainlet board kek. Choosing a mathematical gamble over a large secure sum is peak Reddit math imbecile.  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 08:19:14 2022 No.14774318 >>14774315how old are you, get off this board.are you missing limbs? >are you blind>?  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 08:19:48 2022 No.14774320 >>14774318those are the only options you can think of? lmao  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 08:20:37 2022 No.14774324 >>14774318First world privilege  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 10:07:57 2022 No.14774522 >>14772037You've examined the expected value, but what about the variance? The variance of the first one is zero, while the variance of the second one is (25 million)^2 which gives a standard deviation of 25 million. That means that zero is within one standard deviation, ergo it's objectively dumb to pick 50 million 50% chance button.  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 10:27:33 2022 No.14774537 Equivalently, suppose you have at least 1 million dollars in the bank and someone offered you a chance to bet it for a 50/50 chance at 50 million. Would you take it?  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 11:28:05 2022 No.14774618 >>14772037>win$50mil>give $10mil to all my buddies who tried and failedeveryone turns out for the better  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 11:38:35 2022 No.14774639 >>14772055Something to do with decision making. There is something in microeconomics that deal with that, but I forgot the subject  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 12:04:48 2022 No.14774676 >>14774618>give$10mil to all my buddies who tried and failedTheres only 1 button press. No buddies can try, only you
 >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 12:10:39 2022 No.14774694 File: 31 KB, 736x530, 1658871851179082.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>14772346It should be noted here that anon has chosen a log utility function, which is an arbitrary choice. I observe a utility function that ascribes ridiculous amounts of value to the color green, so for me the answer is the 25 million button.
 >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 12:28:11 2022 No.14774739 >>14772257>spend 1m to charge 30k/yr in rentYeah I definitely want to wait over 30 years to break even. How about fuck off, retard.
 >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 12:32:58 2022 No.14774751 >>14772346What the fuck does expexted utility have to do with logs? Where are the logs coming from?
 >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 12:53:18 2022 No.14774792 >>14772132>My current balance to one million is a much smaller step than one million to 50MYou mean bigger, right because otherwise that's an argument in favor of pressing green>>14772295>getting a lifetime of earnings in an instant isn't worth it because you'll get it anyway Look at what you wrote and think about it
 >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 13:03:23 2022 No.14774819 >>14772271>demands to live in an area he can't afford>slaves away to both pay rent on his shoebox and taxes that pay my flyover mortgageThanks for all the freebies, never give up!
 >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 13:17:01 2022 No.14774859 >>14774751He's just assuming the utility function is log(x).
 >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 13:45:32 2022 No.14774940 >>14774751>>14774859It's not a random assumption. The reason utility functions tend to be some variation on ln(x) is because taking the logarithm reflects diminishing returns. An extra one million after gaining an initial one million for example isn't really equally useful to the average person. With log applied you need much more money before it starts to move the needle again.In this case that helps explain why people would prefer the red button since ln(50,000,000) gets flattened out to a much smaller utility value closer to ln(1,000,000), to the point where the 50% chance becomes more relevant and reduces the utility value of the green button to a lesser amount than the utility value of the red button.Natural log is basically just the opposite of exponential modeling. Instead of reflecting runaway growth it reflects how utility flattens and isn't impacted much by linear scale additions.
 >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 13:57:51 2022 No.14774976 >>14772055Auctioning the rights to button push with starting bid at 10m
 >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 14:09:18 2022 No.14775007 >>14773821Best answer in the thread, go balls out or die trying
 >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 14:14:54 2022 No.14775022 File: 235 KB, 1264x1500, 81Ja9FgWUcL._AC_SL1500_.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>14774739You will still have that 1 million in equity, and it will increase in value over 30 years, ensuring stability for your children and grandchildren. How would you even spend over 30k a month anyways?I make 95k/yr in Virginia, and the red button is a no brainer. Asked my wife about this and she said green, which got me flustered and in turn made her upset and we almost started having an argument. Both kids (7 and 6) said red.
 >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 14:24:22 2022 No.14775056 >>14775022I would punch your wife in the face. She's trying to cost you one million.
 >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 14:40:47 2022 No.14775097 It's called marginal utility of income.Most people would find a guaranteed 1 million much more useful than a 50% chance at 50 million.
 >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 14:55:48 2022 No.14775144 >>14774940>logarithm reflects diminishing returnsAny concave function reflects diminishing returns. Logs are a good approximation of actual behavior but you don't have to use logs if the data suggests another utility function to be more appropriate.
 >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 15:56:05 2022 No.14775297 >>14772049Fucking kek
 >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 16:05:43 2022 No.14775323 >>14772037This is retarded, the red button should at least be 12.5 million. 1 million isn't even 1 million nowadays, it's like $580,000 compared to a millennial million in the year 2000. Might as well replace the 1 million with a McDonald's cheeseburger. Normally though the red button would be the wiser option even though it's mathematically less money overall.  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 16:57:53 2022 No.14775505 >>14775022>How would you even spend over 30k a month anyways?A month? You mean a YEAR  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 17:15:06 2022 No.14775570 >>14775505Yes sorry, the question remains. What are you spending 30k a year on anyways? After two or three years with a real job, expenses drop to almost nothing. Only big expenses are a house and vehicles.  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 22:22:24 2022 No.14776373 >>14772037who is to tell me I only have one button press? I have a million dollars now. I'll just hire a bunch of guys to shoot anyone trying to take back the button.  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 23:08:03 2022 No.14776475 >>14774976pretty good!>>14773021over 9000 is a mistranslation. the original is 八千以上だ which could be roughly translated "it's over 8000" but more accurately is "it's greater than or equal to 8000"  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 23:11:06 2022 No.14776479 >>14773497I want to test the plausibility of Scrooge McDuck's money diving by throwing ducks at a pile of coins.  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 23:12:32 2022 No.14776482 >>14773536You are fucking retarded. You could use the same reasoning to find the ideal place to fuck by averaging the locations of your neighbors' wives' cunts  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 23:13:39 2022 No.14776483 >>14773536You are fucking retarded. You could use the same reasoning to find the ideal place to stick your cock by averaging the locations of your neighbors' wives' cunts  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 23:19:43 2022 No.14776497 100% chance to win$1 million.1% chance to win $1 trillionIt's OBJECTIVELY BETTER to pick the trillion. Any other answer means you're low IQ. I, of course, am a genius either way.  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 23:21:35 2022 No.14776500 File: 33 KB, 800x688, ruin.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] Red button minimizes my personal probability of financial ruin.  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 23:26:43 2022 No.14776512 >>14776483No, that's not the same reasoning at all. The average location in your retarded example wouldn't be representative of the majority of locations if you mean geographical, while the tested function would be what gives the right answer in the majority of test decisions. And if you mean anatomical location instead then that'd just be trivially correct.Also obviously it's a correct and objective way of measuring things to source from many different trial participants since that's exactly what every major corporation in existence spends massive amounts of money on to figure out how to market and sell their products.  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 23:35:36 2022 No.14776530 >>14772037Red all way. I am poorfag and a guaranteed 1 million is better than 50% possibility of 50 mills or nothing.  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 23:42:33 2022 No.14776539 >>14772231Cause I already have one million  >> Anonymous Sat Aug 20 23:45:48 2022 No.14776545 File: 29 KB, 781x716, me, but bold.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>14772037>chanceYou should base your answer on probability only if you have multiple attempts or if award doesn't matter that much.  >> Anonymous Sun Aug 21 00:00:40 2022 No.14776569 File: 39 KB, 1024x576, genie-1024x576.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] I'll propose an alternate problem:>You are lost in a desert without drinking water for days;>You see a settlement in the distance;>It would take about a day to reach it walking, but you will certainly die of dehydration in the middle of the way;>A genie finds you and grants you a wish, but there are only two options:>1. You will get 5 jars of water;>2. You have 50% of chance of getting 12 jars of water and 50% of chance of getting nothing;>You only need 4 jars of water to survive the trip to the settlement;>Which wish is the best option?Now, even if wish #2 has an average of 6 jars, that doesn't matter because that means nothing here. Wish #1 is 100% of chance of survival and wish #2 is 50% of chance of survival, the amount of water doesn't matter after the 4 jars.  >> Anonymous Sun Aug 21 00:11:15 2022 No.14776579 >>14772037>a mathematically objective solutionAnd there's a realistic solution of there are no buttons because nobody does that. Which one wins, the mathematical one that will never be valid for a single real world problem or the realistic solution that is uninteresting?  >> Anonymous Sun Aug 21 00:12:45 2022 No.14776581 >>14772037Find a dumbass rich Gambler like Trainwrecks and sell the the right to press the green button on your behalf for 1M and another 10M if they win the 50M.  >> Anonymous Sun Aug 21 00:31:54 2022 No.14776609 >>14776479>I want to test the plausibility of Scrooge McDuck's money diving by throwing ducks at a pile of coins.Scrooge McDuck has DIAMOND HANDSThe guys from /biz/ will get the joke  >> Anonymous Sun Aug 21 01:05:26 2022 No.14776669 >>14772334>highest gdp in the world>third worldI guess literally every country on Earth is a shithole and you will only be satisfied living on Mars  >> Anonymous Sun Aug 21 01:12:25 2022 No.14776683 >>14772346>>14774940If you use square roots, which is another diminishing return function, you get an Expected Utility of ~$3,535.53 for the green button and and Expected Utility of $1,000 for the Red button.  >> Anonymous Sun Aug 21 01:23:34 2022 No.14776706 >>14776569only comparable if you're either literally a third-worlder or you were planning on committing an hero to escape poverty  >> Anonymous Sun Aug 21 01:40:10 2022 No.14776735 >>14776706But I am in a third world countryA million would change my life for the better, the green button is not worth 50% of staying in the same place no matter how big the prize is  >> Anonymous Sun Aug 21 02:33:18 2022 No.14776809  >> Anonymous Sun Aug 21 02:34:21 2022 No.14776812 >>14776669>Muh GDPNot an indicator of whether your country is a shithole or not.  >> Anonymous Sun Aug 21 04:11:04 2022 No.14776929 >>14775570>What are you spending 30k a year on anyways?Accordions. Help!  >> Anonymous Sun Aug 21 05:09:56 2022 No.14777024 >>14776706Such situations apply to most people even in first world countries.  >> Anonymous Sun Aug 21 05:24:51 2022 No.14777045 >>14776812Its just an indicator of wealth not of happiness. This is known. Wealth is often a burden, for instance cars make it possible to get stuck in traffic  >> Anonymous Sun Aug 21 05:26:24 2022 No.14777046 >>14776812>>14777045If we aren't basing it on wealth, then its just opinion based what country is a shithole. One man's utopia is another man's dystopia  >> Anonymous Sun Aug 21 05:29:35 2022 No.14777053 Now do this one:Red button: 100% chance to win a billion dollarsGreen button: 1% to win a trillion dollars  >> Anonymous Sun Aug 21 06:27:14 2022 No.14777115 Left. No risk of leaving with nothing. I rather have something then nothing. Right button shills with screech and cry as they leave with nothing while left shill Chad's all have a million dollars.  >> Anonymous Sun Aug 21 07:13:13 2022 No.14777162 A 10 dollar wine bottle is more value for money than a 500 dollar wine bottle, most luxuries get diminishing returns the more expensive they are. What could you do with 50 million that you couldn't do with 1, and is it worth the risk of missing out a significant financial windfall?  >> Anonymous Sun Aug 21 07:19:42 2022 No.14777172 >>14772467Yokels in sweden are nice, if a bit tasteless, so there's nothing wrong with the character of people in the countryside. There's a significant amount of depopulation though, which is just sad to see and experience.  >> Anonymous Sun Aug 21 15:11:42 2022 No.14777873 yea, people are more risk averse because evolutionarily a risk could have marginal utility but the cost of failing such a risk could lead to death  >> Anonymous Sun Aug 21 15:27:41 2022 No.14777916 >>14776569I pick wish #2 because I'm not a fag.  >> Anonymous Sun Aug 21 15:36:58 2022 No.14777945 >>14772598Bro quit the alcohol or sugar or whatever the fuck and get your shit together, come on  >> Jealous Sun Aug 21 15:38:13 2022 No.14777950 >>14772037>Why do NPCs always introduce their subjective feelings into problems like pic related when there exists a mathematically objective solution? Are there studies on why so many people value feelings more than logic and refuse to accept a logical answer?OP is retarded.  >> Anonymous Sun Aug 21 15:38:23 2022 No.14777951 >>14772037The real question is... how much money would the Green button have to offer for it to become the objectively smart choice?  >> Anonymous Sun Aug 21 15:54:48 2022 No.14778002 File: 96 KB, 927x691, one-trillion-dollars.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>14777951Anything over one trillion dollars (seriously).  >> Anonymous Sun Aug 21 16:02:47 2022 No.14778028 >>14777951Exactly one (1) SneedCoin  >> Anonymous Sun Aug 21 16:04:01 2022 No.14778036 >>14777951Something abstract that inherently has more value than money. Example:>Red button: instant$1M>Green button: 50% chance of living 50 more years in good healthNOW it's a choice
 >> Anonymous Sun Aug 21 23:24:50 2022 No.14779216 >>14772228kek
 >> Anonymous Sun Aug 21 23:32:24 2022 No.14779220 >>14772037It's a behavioral economics question. If you are struggling for money, a 100% chance of $1 million has more utility to you than a 50% chance of$50 million, because it instantly alleviates your financial problems. If you already have money in the bank and are set to retire comfortably regardless, then you're more likely to press the green button since a smaller chance of a greater reward has more utility to you.
 >> Anonymous Mon Aug 22 16:05:38 2022 No.14780883 >>14772037>>14772037Alright OP. Let's say you have 1 unit of an infinitely divisible currency, and a unit of this currency is equivalent to 1 million USD. Each step you can pay any amount less than the current money you have, to do a coin flip. If heads, you get 2.5x what you paid, if tails you get nothing. You play this game 50 times. By the same faggot logic that says the green button is better, you should be betting the entire amount of money you have every single coin toss - which gives an almost practically guaranteed ($1 - \frac{1}{2^50}$) chance of losing all your money, netting negative 1 million from where you started.
 >> Anonymous Mon Aug 22 16:07:12 2022 No.14780888 Find 10 friends.Everybody pushes green.Split the winnings 10 ways.
 >> Anonymous Mon Aug 22 16:08:37 2022 No.14780889 >>14772037There's no objective solution, red for sure
 >> Anonymous Mon Aug 22 16:09:38 2022 No.14780892 >>14780888Press the two buttons at the same time
 >> Anonymous Mon Aug 22 16:09:57 2022 No.14780893 Find somebody who will buy the buttons for somewhat less than 25M
 >> Anonymous Mon Aug 22 16:12:29 2022 No.14780900 >>14780883You should bet 1/6 of your bankroll each time.
 >> Anonymous Mon Aug 22 16:18:28 2022 No.14780917 >>14780900That's not optimal in terms of expected value of money, which is what OP is using to justify the green button. 1/6 is only optimal in terms of expected log value of money, and under that criterion the red button would be optimal. In terms of expected value of money - betting the entire amount every time would be optimal
 >> Anonymous Mon Aug 22 16:19:20 2022 No.14780919 >>14780893What makes you (and all the other "I'd hack the system" posters) think that the opportunity will continue to be there after the immediate moment?
 >> Anonymous Mon Aug 22 16:25:08 2022 No.14780927 >>14780919Mine is flawless, you need to press both at the same time
 >> Anonymous Mon Aug 22 16:26:51 2022 No.14780929 >>14772037Find the person who is in possession of this money and shoot them, start over in alaska
 >> Anonymous Mon Aug 22 16:51:18 2022 No.14780968 I can't fathom not pressing green. However, I've been on such a hot streak for the past 5-10 years (really since birth if you count inherited assets) that I'm worried I'm being irrational.The investment/betting math I'd use? = kelly criterion =, and rough way of saying that is treating the Green Button as 1M gamble at about 49/1 odds. Long story short, rounding up, you'd press 'Green' if your current net worth is over about 3M. Otherwise the bet (1M) would exceed Kelly, so you'd take the red.Since it's a one time thing, you'll have to actually incorporate a lot more of the considerations in this thread.
 >> Anonymous Mon Aug 22 16:53:15 2022 No.14780970 >>14780927Ooops, you didn't know that pressing both at the same time delivers a lethal dose of electricity. Guess that's just the risk you take when playing with undefined behavior of a system.
 >> Anonymous Mon Aug 22 18:30:56 2022 No.14781145 File: 360 KB, 498x498, wut.gif [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>14780970Like i'm gonna let cliff pickover tell me the what I can or cannot press. Of course he would want me to think that...
 >> Anonymous Mon Aug 22 18:32:29 2022 No.14781150 File: 636 KB, 1920x1283, neethqç.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] The correct answer is obviously red.Invest in bitcoin and you will have made 50 millions of off the red amountHave fun staying poor
 >> Anonymous Mon Aug 22 19:45:14 2022 No.14781342 >>14772037If I'm the only person then I press the red button.When we are 10 persons then all of us press the green button and share equally.
 >> Anonymous Mon Aug 22 19:50:03 2022 No.14781356 >>14781342plot twist, it's rigged and all 10 of you lose.
 >> Anonymous Mon Aug 22 19:59:16 2022 No.14781382 >>14781356Well if it's rigged then it's rigged.
 >> Anonymous Mon Aug 22 20:42:22 2022 No.14781480 >>14772049>implying money doesn't have diminishing returns
 >> Anonymous Mon Aug 22 20:46:19 2022 No.14781493 File: 69 KB, 452x363, 3524344.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>14781480>ooops, it appears as though you were implying [insert low-functioning autismoid brain fart that was neither stated nor implied]
 >> Anonymous Mon Aug 22 21:10:29 2022 No.14781580 >>14772037There is no mathematically objective solution retard. I would take the guaranteed $1 million without even hesitating and so would any other normal sane person. With that much money I'm guaranteed to never have to work a day in my life again.  >> Anonymous Mon Aug 22 21:56:39 2022 No.14781695 >>14772137comparing expected values is only the most rational solution if:a- you can repeat the experiment several times (because of LLN)b- the expection is finite (see the St. Petersburg paradox)  >> Anonymous Mon Aug 22 23:18:13 2022 No.14781870 >>14772037>let me disregard the law of laege numbers.  >> Anonymous Tue Aug 23 01:04:24 2022 No.14782227 >>14772037Restate the question and the answer is obvious:Would you pay$1,000,000 to press a button that has a 50% of giving you $50,000,000 and a 50% of giving you nothing?Only if you can afford to lose$1,000,000.
 >> Anonymous Tue Aug 23 01:22:58 2022 No.14782249 >>14774976actual smartest post in the thread right here
 >> Anonymous Tue Aug 23 01:26:05 2022 No.14782254 >>14772295>$1M is something everyone under age 40 with a job will naturally acquire with minimal efforti admire your optimism but lmao no  >> Anonymous Tue Aug 23 01:43:08 2022 No.14782275 take the million and buy a property in London  >> Anonymous Tue Aug 23 01:49:42 2022 No.14782289 >>14782254Over the course of your life? He’s almost certainly right. Never at one time, no, but as an aggregate of every paycheck you make until you die? Easily.$20k * 50 years = one millionAnd that’s assuming you work a minimum wage job until retiring.
 >> Anonymous Tue Aug 23 05:27:42 2022 No.14782668 >>14782275Enjoy your shed
 >> Anonymous Tue Aug 23 07:43:54 2022 No.14782893 >>14772037>there exists a mathematically objective solutionAccording to my (subjective and implicit) utility function there is much greater difference between having $250 in my bank account and$1M, than $1M and$50M
 >> Anonymous Tue Aug 23 07:45:19 2022 No.14782897 >>14772295>1M is something everyone under age 40 with a job will naturally acquire with minimal effort.If you're American, maybe. Where I live (slavland) you're a big boy if you make more than \$24k/yr pre-tax.
 >> Anonymous Tue Aug 23 07:53:29 2022 No.14782912 >>14772055Green has a higher expected value than red, so it's the better "mathematical" choice, however even 1 mil usd can turn your life around so Id just go with that.
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