The future, transhumanism, the singularity, etc.

[Anonymous No.1466926]

Okay /sci/,

Let's talk about the future and related concepts. What do you think life will be like in 2020, 2035, and 2050?

Also, what's your stance on Moore's Law? Do you think that technological progress is starting to decline, or are we experiencing a temporary halt before the next huge paradigm?

I think the skeptics are wrong. I hear a lot of talk about how our computing power is about to come to a grinding halt (as they've been saying for the past so many decades - and proven wrong), but then I think they fail to consider the following:

1) http://www.technologyreview.com/computing/25834/?a=f
Graphene chips which will greatly improve computing power; and this is AFTER many people were skeptical about graphene, calling it fragile and non-viable. Apparently it's becoming more of a possibility every passing day.

2) Quantum computing. This will pretty much revolutionize the computing industry, and while we may not see it any time soon, it doesn't mean you can downtalk Moore's Law because of it. This will be the next paradigm in computing and it will offer huge fucking breakthroughs.

For my next question: What technologies are you anticipating the most? When do you see it happening?

Immersive virtual reality for me. If I can fly through the cosmos and walk on Jupiter within my lifetime then I know I'll be a happy man.

If we do not access such awesome technologies within my lifetime (as in it's not predicted to happen), then I plan on freezing myself and waking up in the future. I know this tech's not fully ready yet, but I'm still very young and hopeful it'll happen within the next 30 years.

Discuss, /sci/

[Anonymous No.1466942]

the funny thing about the singularity is that it's as much an article of faith as any religious tenet.

sure, it seems to make sense, but there's no proof or guarantee that it's going to happen. you must BELIEVE in it.

i want to see it happen as much as anyone, but i remain skeptical. will we see some cool shit in the next 50 years? definitely. will it involve the vertical drop of no longer being the dominant force on the planet? unlikely.

that said, i'm waiting for cybernetic enhancements. i can't imagine [by definition] the sorts of crazy shit a brain could do once it's got direct access to some RAM.

[снайпер No.1466954]

>>1466942
>i can't imagine [by definition] the sorts of crazy shit a brain could do once it's got direct access to some RAM.

Problem there is a brain-computer interface.

And it's a pretty big doozy of a problem. You either do an invasive procedure and stick gear directly into the brain for high resolution, only to have the subject die of some infection or another a few months later, or you do a non-invasive procedure with extremely low resolution such that just controlling a mouse on a computer screen is difficult.

[Anonymous No.1466959]

>>1466942
What are you talking about? We have so much on our side as opposed to religion.

Statistics and trends, technologies in development, science in general, and the will to create and biological imperative to manifest technologies that could essentially grant us immortality.

[Anonymous No.1466960]

>walk on Jupiter
good luck with that

[Anonymous No.1466973]

>>1466954
the answer is surgery, of course.

no one said it was going to be painless. the technical details of infection and rejection will get sorted out eventually, like what happened with pacemakers.

more likely you'll implant some kind of port, which you can swap components freely in and out of.

[снайпер No.1466974]

>I plan on freezing myself and waking up in the future.

Unfortunately, you're gonna need money for that. Money that you earn after you die.

Which pretty much means you have to be rich. Even then, once you're dead, there's not really going to be much to stop the company from adding charges or whatever to drain you of money faster.

As far as they're concerned, you're dead, you're not coming back, and they can take as much as they want from you because you've given them the key. Oh whoops they withdrew ten thousand dollars on that payment. Oh boy, sure hope he doesn't notice, tee hee.

And then when your money runs out, they thaw you and throw you in a dumpster.

Hell they might not even wait until that point. Save money not running the cryogenic machines at all.

Yes, I'm cynical.

[Anonymous No.1466981]

>>1466960
What? Why would that be impossible in an entirely simulated environment, given that the conditions were altered to make it possible? lol

[Anonymous No.1466984]

>>1466974
you forget the 'futurama effect' as I call it
accidentally steal someones chryonic chamber when he never enters in the first place, however doing so requires a massive lack of knowledge in how chryogenics actually works

[Anonymous No.1466993]

>>1466959

yes we have a bunch of graphs that show accelerating pace of change.

but those are valid only for times for which we have data. extrapolations to the future are based on a bigass assumption that there won't be some disruption to the pattern.

whether or not that will happen is almost entirely unpredictable and thus if you believe it won't, you're acting on faith.

[Anonymous No.1467002]

>>1466974
You're a fool.

1) Ethical standards to maintain. There's a reason why the sort of business you've just described ends up failing in real life. No one wants their business due to failure in upholding said standards and failing to be socially responsible.

And it's very likely the government would have a huge hand in watching over this sort of activity.

2) Other family members/friends/guardians could watch over your case to make sure no bullshit was going on behind the scenes.

3) I'm not talking about freezing myself for a century, maybe 10-50 years tops.

4) I doubt it'll cost more than a couple thousand per year.

[Anonymous No.1467019]

>>1466926

Quantum computing is far away.

Transhumanism would be a ridiculous attempt.

And singularity will never happen.

And the future will be boring (or at least you would be too old to be bored by any technology revolution).

[Anonymous No.1467031]

>>1467019
...we already have quantum computers -_-
we also already have electronic brain implants that treat certain ailments.

skeptictard.

why do you assume all this wicked progress will come to a sudden screeching halt?

[Anonymous No.1467040]

>>1466926
Many people forget one thing about singularity: All the technologies they expect to come with the singularity are not defining for singularity. Thus, they may as well be caused by the singularity, which means, we only see them after we've already "crossed the border".

The one key technology is Artificial Intelligence. This technology will cause a dramatic increase in humanity's progress as it "shifts evolution one level higher". The last time this happened was when humans "acquired" culture. And compare the cultural evolution in the last 10,000 to the biological one.

So, the interesting thing is, that AI can practically hit us tomorrow. Well, not exactly, it is expected that it'll take a few years until our computers are theoretically powerful enough. But basically, it's just ONE idea that missing. Hundreds of scientists are doing research in this field and fail to get "the big picture" of intelligence. Chances are, that some time there's gonna be an "accident" and someone happens to get it right.

[Anonymous No.1467048]

>>1467031
or get it wrong.

skynet anyone?

[Anonymous No.1467052]

>>1467048

misquoted. should be

>>1467040

[Anonymous No.1467069]

>>1467040
I would replace 'culture' with the dawn of 'intelligence' and then we're on the same page.

As I understand it, the paradigms are as follows:

Big bang > elements > cosmic bodies > single celled organisms > multicelled organisms > creatures with limited intelligence > dawn of intelligence/opposable thumbs/ability to manipulate environment > technology

We know that between each of those paradigms is a very long period of time, with the longest being between the earliest stages and gradually getting shorter (exponentially so). Technology was introduced in order to maintain this exponential momentum, and artificial intelligence will set it sky rocketing even more.

[Anonymous No.1467093]

Wats going on in this therad? We getting saved? Singularity is going to happen bro! Take your head out of the sand!!!

[Anonymous No.1467092]

>>1467048
I suppose you're responding to me.

Well, yeah, perhaps. I really think a machine can only be "capable of intelligent thinking" and that true intelligence can only be acquired through communciation with other intelligences. Thus, it's going to happen on the internet (more communictaion => bigger success), Cleverbot style, you know? But that just on a sidenote.

Regarding the apocalyptical AI secnario, a few things:

1. It does not mess with the Singularity scenario. The progress of Skynet WILL be great. Well, humans will be fucked up. But there are many possibilities how this could happen anyways.

2. It's quite improbable. If you look at my paragraph above, a machine "capable of intelligent thinking" still needs to acquire proper ways of thinking. This is often greatly underestimated. But look at it that way: The only (fully developed) intelligence we know (human) needs YEARS to actually do something you could consider intelligent. And what do they do then? What they learned from their parents.
Conclusions: Intelligence probably needs to "grow up" and if they do, they will grow up in a human environment, thus being quite human in thinking. Thus, I cannot see why they are more likely to destroy humanity than any other human
(Addendum: It WILL be a challenge to tell all all the retards around the world that this "computer program" should be considered human. That's what I fear most. But then again, if humanity isn't capable of accepting that, we probably deserve to be wiped out. lol)

[Anonymous No.1467101]

>>1467069
>technology was introduced in order to maintain

yeah you sound like a douchenozzle.

SOMEONE IS HELLBENT ON MAINTAINING THIS PATTERN AND HE INTRODUCED TECHNOLOGY

[Anonymous No.1467128]

>>1467092
continue'd:

3. There probably never is the time for this to happen. I'd still expect about 30-50 years between the first AI on human level and AIs being _main_ motor of human progress. During this progression, AIs will not be capable of overcoming all homo sapiens on the planet. Towards the end of this, though, I think that humanity itself has changed so much that there are no more clearly defined homo sapiens you could attack.

[Anonymous No.1467147]

>>1467128
AI advancement is unlikely from the way I see it, because civilization will collapse from way to great a population, notably because of a lack of rare earth metals needed to make such machines in the first place

[Anonymous No.1467151]

>>1467101
I'm not the person you're responding to but it's right if we assume that there probably is some "law of evolution" behind that. It's to be understood in the same sense as "a force was appeared to maintain the conservation fo energy" or something (sorry, I'm no physicist.)

[Anonymous No.1467154]

>>1467092

the threat of enemy AI is real, and is a huge motivation for those actively working on ultratechnology to develop a friendly AI first, so as to counter the threat.

yes, an AI needs to learn. but to treat it as human will result in catastrophe. real working AIs today do not simulate the human brain, but use completely different processes that arrive at an intelligent OUTPUT.

a learning computer taught by humans is no guarantee of friendliness.

[Anonymous No.1467157]

>>1467147
AIs are not robots.
AI is a software in the first place. Thus, no space consumption. 4chan could be overpopulated, though....

[Anonymous No.1467161]

We're not going to come to a grinding halt (well, we might, but we won't stay there for long). I doubt technological progress will become OMGWTFSOFAST. It will cause fucking massive societal changes. I doubt AI will pass the human threshold (though tons of human-level AIs will still be pretty cash).

[Anonymous No.1467172]

I say that the future of technology is making the world greener, as in, earth-friendly technology.. this is what we should be focusing on

[Anonymous No.1467183]

>>1467154
Of course it's not guaranteed to be friendly, just like a human child is not guaranteed to be friendly. (Hitler had parents, you know?) What I'm saying is that it is not much more likely to destroy (or want to destroy) humanity than ANY child born right now. And I mean, we take that risk like what, 7 times a second?

Also, yeah, I know, that's why you call today's AI weak as opposed to the strong AI I'm talking about. Perhaps I should stress that: I am talkin about STRONG AI the whole time.

[Anonymous No.1467185]

If the AI is going to be programed as humans, than that's what's dangerous!

[Anonymous No.1467205]

>>1467157
i see, but then they can only become enemy if we entrust with them our military
i find that unlikely due to the fact that people are paranoid about such things, even if inspired by movies, and high up government is even more so, text evidence being leaks from high up hosted on the appropriate sites
Then the only other way for them to be evil/unfriendly is if they manufacture their own army which is impossible/unlikely due to the resources and lack there of

[Anonymous No.1467231]

>>1467205
yep.

[Anonymous No.1467264]

i love how people compare the singularity to some religious prophecy. the thing that differentiates the singularity from a prophecy is that there are many reasonable extrapolations that it can be derived from. inb4 DERP NO WAY MAN THAT IS TO UNREASONABLE well yes it is based on moores law and current knowledge.

[Anonymous No.1467300]

>>1467264
I think the main difference is even more brutal:
Singularity is not a believe, it's a guess, a vision at best. If Singularity never comes, I'll just be like "Well, w/e." not like "OMG my life has no meaning!!!1".

[Anonymous No.1467320]

But OP, we wont make it past 2012!

[fizx !d75etXAowg No.1467350]

>Also, what's your stance on Moore's Law? Do you think that technological progress is starting to decline
I hate it when people confuse technological progress with the increasing power of processing power. Sure processing power is increased through technological progress, but processing is only one facet of technological progress. Technological progress is not exponential, it is generally geometric. Moore's Law is just for computational power and is bound to silicon. If we switched to a different means of computation then we would likely have a new law dictating rate of development.

[Anonymous No.1467399]

>>1467264
I know!! The difference between the Singularity and religious NONSENSE is fucking SCIENCE! Moore's LAW, bitches. It's on! in 20 years, we'll be fucking robots and living forever by downloading our minds into computers!