/sci/ - Science & Math

[Anonymous No.14505016]

How accurate is political polling on a technical, scientific level?

[Anonymous No.14505021]

Not at all

Political polls in the US are done with people who still have physical telephone connections and numbers in phone books. This skews the sample to a much older population who still have those.

That is not as big a problem as it sounds since the older you are the more likely you are to vote, but if you're looking for the zeitgeist then phone polls aren't the way to do it

[Anonymous No.14505026]

>>14505016
0%.

It's literally basic maths and marketing.

[Anonymous No.14505034]

>>14505021
lmao that owning a landline give me fantastic advantageous political sway over the poorfag iphone junkies.

[Anonymous No.14505047]

0%

The same people saying biden is fucked were the same people who said hilary was a slam dunk. If you want to talk about /pol/itics then democrats have unwillingly stayed in the center thanks to manchin/sinema cockblocking anything progressive, meanwhile the republicans seem content to devolve into the maga/christian science retard party. Since most americans are not evangelicals or trump supporters (especially since trump endorses gun control) this is the end of the republican national coalition. No idea what that actually means for the average joe, but it likely means the end of the GOP's ability to have legislative majorities or an electoral college majority.

For a specific example, all the emphasis on abortion, stem cell research, gays, and fucking companies that don't comply with christian values is the same hill the California GOP died on 20 years ago. Their last holdout was Arnold, but even then all the party did was fight him for being too liberal. They have not had a legislative majority since 2006 and will not ever get one again.

[Anonymous No.14505975]

>>14505016
They have failed to accurately predict the outcome of the past two presidential elections regardless having gathered more data than ever before.
However, if the elections are dishonest then it is irrational to expect statistics and probability to be able to predict the outcome.

[Anonymous No.14506050]

>>14505047
>The same people saying biden is fucked were the same people who said hilary was a slam dunk.
Proof?

[Anonymous No.14506056]

>>14506050
https://fivethirtyeight.com

[Anonymous No.14506063]

>>14505016
>How accurate is political polling on a technical, scientific level?
read fivethirtyeight.com
it's nate silver's website. they do a great job of aggregating polling data and following major race results. they also discuss the quality of polling from both a procedural and contextual perspective.

[Anonymous No.14506073]

>>14506063
>read this jew's website about politics, its totally trustworthy

[Anonymous No.14506137]

>>14506056
>https://fivethirtyeight.com/
lrn2b8

[Anonymous No.14506907]

>>14505016
Polls don't matter anymore.
Laughs in mail-in voter fraud and Dominion machines

[Anonymous No.14507536]

>>14506907