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/sci/ - Science & Math

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1385712 No.1385712 [Reply] [Original]

What are the odds of the octopus having predicted the winner of the world cup soccer?

>> No.1385713

1/2

>> No.1385724 [DELETED] 

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>> No.1385728

He had like eight correct guesses in a row, wasn't it? That's 1/256, barring foul play, which is always a possibility.

>> No.1385731

>>1385728
Tsk, OP didn't ask for the octopus' odds of guessing all those in a row! He asked for the odds of the final match.

>> No.1385737

>>1385731

I know, but someone already answered thay. I just expanded on the topic.

>> No.1385739

something about coin flips...

>> No.1385740

1/(Number of teams competing)

Easy enough.

>> No.1385743

>>1385740
This assumes he picked the winner from the start
Not how it happens.

>> No.1385748

>>1385743

No it doesn't. There were only two teams left to pick from, thus 1/2.

>> No.1385752

you guys aren't trying to figure out the chances of an octopus comprehending what the world cup is.

and dont say its zero those bitches are smart.

>> No.1385756

it was 50/50 everytime no? I thought probability doesnt carry over?

>> No.1385771

>>1385756

There are two teams competing in any given match. Assuming the octopus is equally likely to pick either flag, it's 1/2.

>> No.1385772

>>1385756
looking at games individually its 1/2

but picking every winner for the games it was picking for, thats consecutive

>> No.1385815

Octopi are a sapient race from another planet. They arrived on earth, but became trapped, with no way defend themselves from many stronger earth creatures such as human beings. This is their first noticeable attempt at proving sapience.

>> No.1385821

goodonya paul

>> No.1385837

Soccer players are known to be extremely superstitious. I wonder if the predictions of the Octopus could've given a slight psychological edge to the teams that we're picked, resulting in a sort of "self-fulfilling prophecy".

>> No.1385843

wtf?? probability?? what's that got to do with anything; he's psychic you dumb bitches.

>> No.1385846

The God-Octopus chooseth the winrars!

>> No.1385853

Cthulhu is so bored.

>> No.1385872

he always sat on the right (opposite of left) box. coincidence? I think not

>> No.1385882
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1385882

32 teams are participating so 1/32
idiot

>> No.1385885

>>1385712
100% obviously

>> No.1385889

SOLUTION:
teams are influenced because they are optimistic or pessimistic because of the prediction (they believe in it themselves), thats why he's always correct

>> No.1385894

>>1385837
Someone make a collage alternating between Robben and Paul when Arjen tries to make his breakaway goal.

>> No.1385906

1/2^8

given you think it's a 50/50 chance.

>> No.1385919

>>1385853
Lmao.

>> No.1385928

Stats fag here. It 1/2 mulitplied by 1/2 for 2 games. Just times by another 1/2 for each game. Someone said 8 games, so 0.5x0.5x0.5........
0.5^8. =. Something (on iPhone ATM, very hard)

>> No.1385970

>>1385928
oops now see the questions. 1/2 was the probability of the final. But to get them all, was 0.5^8

>> No.1386009

what is the probability that he tastes like victory?

>> No.1386021

OH BOY HERE WE GO

>> No.1386033

0.39%