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/sci/ - Science & Math

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12432389 No.12432389 [Reply] [Original]

>Infection fatality rate (IFR) estimated to be 0.3% in july in the UK (source: https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/estimating-the-infection-fatality-ratio-in-england/)), for comparison a typical flu season has an IFR of around 0.1 with some being far worse than others, the 2017-2018 flu season in the US had a fatality rate of nearly 0.2%
>40% of deaths occured in nursing homes, the median length of stay (before death) in a nursing home is 6 months
>Cases were already falling when lockdowns went into effect in several countries in europe during the second wave

How am i supposed to take the chink flu seriously knowing this?

>> No.12432410

>>12432389
You, as an individual, don't need to take anything seriously other than a direct threat on your life from someone in your geographical locality. You, as a member of a dense population group with next to no social hygiene, relying primarily on authorities despite your very low case load of serious threats to your life from other sapient members of your own species, should seriously consider what you, personally, as an individual, believe, would have happened if there has been a higher ratio of interaction between individuals during this crisis.

>> No.12432860

>>12432389
Seasonal flu yearly worldwide death estimate: 300-600k.
Covid death toll so far (less than a year): 1.5M.

>> No.12432865

>>12432389
>the 2017-2018 flu season in the US had a fatality rate of nearly 0.2%
Kek, no it didn't.

>> No.12432931

>>12432410
>crisis

>> No.12432935

>>12432860
Seasonal flu deaths are not counted the same way coronavirus deaths are.

>> No.12432941
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12432941

>>12432389
based retard overstating the IFR of everything else and understating the IFR of COVID (which is AT LEAST 0.5%, most estimates suggest 0.5-1.0 depending on conditions) to make himself blissfully unaware and comfortable. No its not the spanish flu or black death, but its also risky enough you or your family and friends might get caught lacking. The long term health effects seem to be nothing to sneeze at either. Keep lying to yourself though

>> No.12432955

>>12432389
Im gonna make an infographic if i keep seeing retards posting this shit
This is a new strain of coronavirus. This means large numbers of people can get infected at a single time. Many more people than with viruses that are already in circulation.
IF we let large numbers of people get the virus at the same time, then our health service will have more patients than it can handle, and so a large number of people will die.
If your country is properly performing its public response then the death rate will be low. If it isn't then the death rate will be high.
In the UK we had lockdowns, and provided ways of legally enforcing policies that reduce spread.

You aren't going to take the chink flu seriously because you are too stupid to understand the situation. That's fine. If stupid people die at a faster rate, we just speed up evolution. So do whatever you want :)

>> No.12433231

>>12432860
and the flu deaths have precipitously dropped while the covid deaths have risen. Coincidence?

>> No.12433430

>>12433231
What are you suggesting?

>> No.12433433

>>12433430
He's suggesting that many of what would normally be considered flu deaths are being called coronavirus deaths

>> No.12433436

>>12432389
It depends on age and comorbidities, these pseudo-average death rates mean nothing.

>> No.12433456

>>12433433
Heart disease is down too

>> No.12433467

>>12433456
>everybody wears masks
>everybody social distances
>heart disease goes down
no shit

>> No.12433468

>>12433433
Testing for influenza doesn’t find that to be the case though.

>> No.12433854

>>12432389
1968 flu cycle had a fatality rate of 0.4%

>> No.12433867

>>12432389
Not just that, but the flu vaccine is completely free and no one gives a fuck to take it, yet im meant to take a rushed corona vax to pacify scaremongers

>> No.12434377

>>12432865
>https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden-averted/2017-2018.htm#:~:text=CDC%20estimates%20that%20influenza%20was,severe%20seasonal%20influenza%20can%20be.
61000/45000000 = 0.14%

>> No.12434522

>>12432941
Even if that was true in march or april i think 0.3% is reasonable as of now https://www.livescience.com/covid-19-death-rates-falling-treatments.html
And don't forget that even that is an overestimate, many people don't develop detectable antibodies at all or they fade, specially the young and healthy, i remember reading a study a few months ago that found sars cov2 t cells in twice the people who had antibodies in households with a confirmed infected person

>> No.12434536

>>12434377
So corona is twice as deadly as the flu in IFR.
That means it would kill twice as many people even if the R0 were identical right.

>> No.12435814

>>12434377
They're working from estimates upon estimates. Actual confirmed influenza deaths were around 5k. Actual confirmed influenza cases were...I don't even know frankly. We can assume testing isn't adequate to detect the majority of cases since 75% of flu infections are asymptomatic. What we can look at is all-cause mortality, and there wasn't a hell of a lot of difference between 2016, 2017, and 2018. Pneumonia deaths average between 50k-65k per year in the USA, which would be the expected primary cause of death from flu complications. That trend has held steady since the 90's. Only 2020 dramatically deviates, with 250k pneumonia deaths and counting. Even very bad cold and flu seasons in recent decades add very little to all-cause mortality compared to an average season.

>> No.12435861

>>12433467
Why would masks have any effect whatsoever?

>> No.12435881

>>12433231
So how do you explain - and I mean *explain*, not asserting a moronic opinion - a sudden rise to 1.5 million flu deaths?

>> No.12436052

>>12435814
I don't get what's your poitnt, covid is more contagious and is something new, doctors didn't know how to treat it at first, didn't a lot of people die from being unnecesarly intubated?

https://www.livescience.com/covid-19-death-rates-falling-treatments.html
>people hospitalized for COVID-19 in March were more than three times as likely to die as people hospitalized for COVID–19 in August.
And that's after controlling for age and comorbidities

>> No.12436086

>>12435814
And if there are so few confirmed influenza deaths it's because nobody is testing everyone who enters a hospital for it like we're doing right now with covid

>> No.12436156

>>12436052
Assuming half of the pneumonia deaths were due to old folks getting intubated, that still leaves pneumonia deaths at double the annual rate in a time frame of only 10 months.

>>12436086
Hence pneumonia deaths, which are an easy cause of death to list and don't require a positive test for influenza or any other virus. Also, the bulk of pneumonia deaths during cold and flu season are probably from viruses besides the flu. Any upper respiratory infection can spread to the lungs, especially during the winter. The end result is still only around 50k-65k pneumonia deaths per year. 2020 is the outlier.