/sci/ - Science & Math

[Anonymous No.12242552]

>More and more people are getting tested due to school/work regulations, causing an influx of "positive" results despite minimal-to-no symptoms being displayed

"Oh My GoD tHe ViRuS iS SURGING!!!!! SHUT. EVERYTHING. DOOOWWWWNNNN!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

[Anonymous No.12242556]

Positivity rate shouldn't be going up if it's simply a matter of more testing.

[Anonymous No.12242558]

>>12242556
Just means we're getting better at detecting the virus. Doesn't mean the number of infected victims are actually on the rise.

[Anonymous No.12242559]

>>12242558
OK Trump

[Anonymous No.12242566]

>>12242559
What's your two cents on the situation?

[Anonymous No.12242568]

>>12242558
>Just means we're getting better at detecting the virus.
What are you basing that on? I'm not aware of any change to the PCR or the detection level required to trigger a positive result.

[Anonymous No.12242573]

>>12242552
You'll never again be free.

[Anonymous No.12242574]

>>12242568
Sorry, I just meant we're testing more people, not so much that we're using more effective techniques.

[Anonymous No.12242580]

>>12242566
I think you should shut up and listen to the epidemiologists instead of making up convenient excuses.

[Anonymous No.12242582]

>>12242580
I'm trans btw, if that matters

[Anonymous No.12242583]

>>12242573
Can't wait for the narrative to magically change (even in Europe) once Trump is out of office.

[Anonymous No.12242587]

>>12242580
I am. Too bad their conclusions are being twisted by the media. That's what I'm referencing in this thread.

[Anonymous No.12242598]

>>12242574
You're right about the increased testing, but then you have to look at the number of those tests that come back positive. More testing of asymptomatic people (compared to sick people asking to be tested) should result in a drop in the positivity rate. For the USA, JHU tracks those statistics. During the USA's summer surge, testing did indeed increase, but the positivity rate went WAY up, far more than could be explained from increased testing. The fact is that there were a lot of people getting infected. The positivity rate then slowly fell to under 5%, but it began climbing again in early October. Lethality was low in the summer despite retaining a high infection rate, but I expect the case fatality rate to start going back up as we move into colder weather. All respiratory viruses are more dangerous in the fall and winter.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states

[Anonymous No.12242610]

>>12242598
But it isn't going WAY up currently. Just up enough that it can be explained by increased testing. Also interesting that our positive cases are slowly increasing, but...

[Anonymous No.12242621]

>>12242610
... our coronavirus-related deaths continue to remain stagnant (even slightly decreasing), despite increased interpersonal contact since the beginning of school / on-site work.

[Anonymous No.12242628]

>>12242610
>Also interesting that our positive cases are slowly increasing, but...
It's a little concerning. Whether it's the start of a trend or if it will level out remains to be seen, but I expect it to steadily climb because that's pretty much the case with all respiratory viruses at this time of year. I hope I'm wrong of course, but more time indoors + dry air is a proven recipe for spreading respiratory infections.

[Anonymous No.12242638]

>>12242621
I'm pretty sure deaths are adjusted retroactively as it can to up to 8 weeks for death certificates to be reported. During the summer surge, the rise in cases was not causing a corresponding rise in deaths, but if you look at the charts now, deaths clearly went up as well, it just took time for the data to reflect that.

[Anonymous No.12242640]

>>12242574
But testing more people doesn't give you a higher positive to negative ratio..

[Anonymous No.12242645]

>>12242583
You're so deluded, you can't even entertain a possibility that democrats would lose. This is the hysteria that is the democrat party. They believe their party is the only valid one, and they undermine the constitution to make it so. If it were up to you, this nation would be one-party. We all know how that ends.
Oh and also, fuck the narrative. That BS is bipartisan. I'd tend to believe it's the true elite class that is behind it.

[Anonymous No.12242656]

>>12242628
True, there’s a near-certain chance that the death rate will go up for a short period once Winter hits. Just don’t know how CNN will tie this into their storyline since they’ve already cried wolf in July/October. It’ll finally become evident to their viewers that COVID-19 is taking the same course as any other virus, and is not simply spreading because we’re not standing more than 6 feet apart at the Walmart checkout line.

[Anonymous No.12242663]

>>12242640
I was talking about new cases per day. Please post evidence that the positive-to-negative test result ratio is increasing.

[Anonymous No.12242664]

>>12242645
sensitive much?

[Anonymous No.12242665]

>>12242638
Which is why these July deaths aren’t reported on the death trend chart even 3 months later, right?

[El Arcón No.12242667]

They were saying once the weather cools off is when there would be a big second wave. Too bad the fake mortality is 0.2%.

[Anonymous No.12242737]

>>12242667
Yes/No/Maybe/Maybe Not. What's the difference? Does that change if I'm right or wrong?

[Anonymous No.12242744]

>>12242667
>>12242737
Sorry Tooker, meant to respond to >>12242664
Huge fan btw.

[Anonymous No.12242826]

>>12242665
I'm not sure what you're talking about, deaths doubled from the low point in June to the end of July and followed the rise in cases with a lag time of one to two weeks.

I'm not exactly sure where those charts are pulling their info from (and several places are creating their own charts), but the statistics the CDC uses for deaths is retroactively updated. I remember debating with people back in April, and they were making the claim that the USA's expected deaths were below 100%. If you look at the final tallies, deaths were at 140% of the expected rate for the month. We were arguing over numbers that weren't even close to reflecting the situation at the time. In my experience, the numbers for deaths need to mostly be dismissed until at least four weeks out, at which point they'll likely be fairly accurate with some straggler certificates yet to be reported. Testing numbers on the other hand will typically be pretty accurate to within a week. So not only will deaths always lag a little behind deaths even when looking at the final figures (because it takes time to die after being infected), but the delay in reporting deaths means that it really can't be used to measure the current situation. It's better to look at total tests, positive tests, and hospitalization rates. The first two tell you about the rate of spread, and the latter the severity of the cases.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

[Anonymous No.12242887]

>>12242610
As the attached graph suggests, test positivity gives an incomplete picture because it depends on whether the people getting tested routinely are symptomatic or not (hence early in the pandemic when tests were more rare the positivity rate was so enormous even in states with smaller outbreaks), but I think it is nonetheless telling that now when we test a lot of asymptomatics we didn't test before the test positivity rate which spent so long going down is moving up (and I don't think it is because we're only testing symptomatic people now, since we're giving MORE tests). Deaths may lag long before but if cases were constant we would see a decrease in test positivity and that's not the case.

>>12242621
The national graph shows a compendium of different states with different policies. As you can see here for Texas https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83 deaths really jumped up in the mid to late summer after a spike in cases, even if in New York they were still decreasing. This tool at JHU is good since it shows state by state policy decisions and cases/mortality too https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/state-timeline/new-confirmed-cases/texas

[Anonymous No.12242914]

Why didn't we spaz out and shit everything down during 2018 when 1.5 million people died of tuberculosis

[Anonymous No.12242927]

>>12242826
And your link also shows the trends in excess mortality are very different for different areas of the country, which are geographically different and had different policies active at the time. To look at the whole US is to see an incomplete picture of the pandemic.

[Anonymous No.12242936]

>>12242914
Maybe because most of TB occurs in countries which have had it for decades or centuries and cannot into public health, or maybe because most people with TB have a latent infection that doesn't go away because you stay at home. You should think a little more before you post dumb statements.

[Anonymous No.12242940]

>>12242914
Honestly, because TB is more of a third world problem. Something like 95% of TB cases and deaths happen in developing countries. The USA only has about 10k TB cases and 500 deaths per year.

[Anonymous No.12242941]

OH MY GOD I CANT GO OUTSIDE GOVERNMENT GIVE ME MONEY TO LIVE OFF ILL BUY EVERYTHING OFF AMAZON OH GOD I'M SO SCARED

[Anonymous No.12242959]

>>12242927
Well sure, it all depends on how detailed you want to get. Within even a state, you can have hard hit towns and counties while others are relatively untouched.

[Anonymous No.12242987]

Literally just the flu.

[Anonymous No.12243205]

>>12242826
The graphs that I showed were pulled from the CDC website, with information accurate as of this afternoon. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases . These graphs indicate that although the rate of positive test results occurring in July more than double those occurring in April, the rate of deaths stemming from July cases (taking into account the 2 week lag), was not double that of April's rate, in fact, it was less than half thereof. This phenomenon is explained by >>12242887, which shows the dramatic impact of the virus back in April, the small resurgence in July, and the relative stagnation since then. In April, tests were only administered upon hospitalization for those experiencing critical respiratory issues, which explains why nearly a quarter of these patients came back with a positive result. When the virus resurged in July, testing had become more accessible, and more symptomatic individuals voluntarily received testing. This explains the rise in % of positive cases for that period, as well as the drop of tests being administered shortly after the spike (since most individuals were still not obligated to be tested). Once September rolled around, many U.S. institutions reopened their doors, while requiring their students/staff to be regularly tested for the virus. Despite the gigantic increase in daily tests since September (as indicated by the graph), the % of positive tests did not subsequently increase by a similar amount (as it did back in July).

The graph ultimately indicates that as more testing is carried out, more asymptomatic individuals receive positive results, in turn boosting the % of positive cases. And while there was a small resurgence of the virus back in July, the same situation isn't reoccurring in October. If it was, the increase of % of positive cases would have reflected the increase in testing, as it did back in July.

[Anonymous No.12243216]

>>12242558
Hospitals now overflowing with patients would like a word with you.

[Anonymous No.12243223]

how bad will this winter be

[Anonymous No.12243231]

>>12242826
>>12243205
TL;DR
The virus simply isn't as deadly as it was earlier this year. The % of positive results isn't indicative of the virus' spread. Positive cases go up when testing is increased since asymptomatics are taken into account. Deaths is a better representation of the virus' spread as opposed to novel cases, %positive cases etc., The COVID-related death rate has been in decline since August (even with facilities back open). Since most of the facilities that have been reopened were reopened over 4 weeks ago, a death lag would have been represented on the original death-rate graph, but it isn't.

[Anonymous No.12243243]

>>12243223
Will be another July-like spike, but I don't think we'll ever see anything like April 2020 ever again.

In terms of positive cases reported, that will be dependent on whether offices/schools decide to remain open in the winter (in which regular testing of staff and students will continue).

[Anonymous No.12243258]

>>12243216
Which ones?

[Anonymous No.12243257]

>>12243243
will there ever be things like concerts again or will they milk the holocough as an excuse to lock people inside?

[Anonymous No.12243272]

>>12243216
And I'm aware that certain communities are being affected more than others, but go to any hospital and I'll doubt you'll find any that would be considered "overflowing" with patients

[Anonymous No.12243276]

>>12243216
even at the height of it killing people in nyc in april hospitals were almost completely empty. How stupid do you think i am?

[Anonymous No.12243374]

>>12243257
I think the virus has created a stigma that will be tough to break. Even when venues start opening back up, there will be that brainless loud minority that will get their panties in a twist and lead a social media stampede that will cause those venues to close their doors again. Realistically, the number of worldwide COVID-19 cases won't drop back down to zero for a while (if ever). As long as this virus still exists, there will be that pressure group that will try to keep everything shut down.

And I mean look at where we are currently (in the U.S. at least). The virus has steadily slowed in spread since July (and had reached its peak in April), yet we are shown the picture that the virus is now worse than ever.

[Anonymous No.12243388]

>>12243374
I hate this. I have no future because of the long term effects this shit has created. Even 30 years from now people will still be afraid of it and having masks. It's too big of an event to have small consequences. The only good thing is I can use it as justification for not going out.

[Anonymous No.12243448]

>>12243205
>When the virus resurged in July, testing had become more accessible, and more symptomatic individuals voluntarily received testing
And also more asymptomatic individuals! Hence the drop from the crazy high test positivity in April and subsequent rise.

>as the drop of tests being administered shortly after the spike (since most individuals were still not obligated to be tested)
But if you look at when the testing dropped, the peak in test positivity (and, if it is a good proxy, also the peak in cases) had already happened weeks to a month prior. Test positivity was fell down and # of tests followed with a lag, which makes me think it is more likely a causal factor rather than the two events coinciding


>Once September rolled around, many U.S. institutions reopened their doors, while requiring their students/staff to be regularly tested for the virus. Despite the gigantic increase in daily tests since September (as indicated by the graph), the % of positive tests did not subsequently increase by a similar amount (as it did back in July).
I agree what happened in July (and which I would not characterize as minor) is not being observed just yet at a national level. I think it's also telling we went up on tests by 20-50% on average per the graph I cited and the test positivity didn't decrease, and in fact has been slowly creeping up in the last few weeks.

>The graph ultimately indicates that as more testing is carried out, more asymptomatic individuals receive positive results, in turn boosting the % of positive cases
You're forgetting as more testing is carried out, more asymptomatic individuals receive negative results too!

In fact if we are just testing symptomatics as in April, as you pointed out the %positivity will be much higher. But because we're testing a pool of asymptomatic people LESS likely to test positive, the fact they DO test positive tells us there is more of the virus going around

[Anonymous No.12243456]

>>12243388
It's just unbelievable - that's the only way I can describe it. I supposedly live in a COVID "hotspot" and yet I personally know ZERO people who ever had the virus. And out of all of the people I know, only a handful of them know others who had the virus. I couldn't name a single person off the top of my head who died from COVID-19 besides the guitarist from Fountains of Wayne. Yet every celebrity on the planet seems to be getting it. Apparently a shitload of people are dying from this that I don't know about.

I really don't know where this inconceivable fear of this virus came from. It's a deviation from a form of virus that had been discovered + studied half a century ago. It has a smaller mortality rate than influenza with less of a reach. This shit isn't even comparable to a bad strain of the flu. Yet most of the world has been indoctrinated in a manner where they now go on a rampage every time someone refuses to liken this virus to the Black Plague.

So what has happened as a result of this overreaction? I, as well as millions upon millions around the world, have been laid off in an attempt to meet "social distancing" guidelines. It's almost impossible for me to travel back home to see my family. Young children are missing out on vital education and don't have the opportunity to learn and improve their social skills. Big businesses are profiting off as small businesses are shutting their doors. All of this because of a teency weency benign little fucking virus.

FUCK

[Anonymous No.12243469]

>>12243456
but cvg says the death rate is like 2% which is 20 times worse than flu

[Anonymous No.12244034]

>>12243231
>Positive cases go up when testing is increased since asymptomatics are taken into account.
You're really confused. Total cases (i.e. all positive results) go up, but positivity rate (i.e. the % of total tests that are positive) will go down. Asymptomatic people being tested will cause a rise in cases, but asymptomatic people have a smaller chance of being positive than someone exhibiting symptoms, so the positivity rate will go down.

[Anonymous No.12244240]

>>12242587
based

[Anonymous No.12244262]

>>12243223
you'll get insane restrictions on everything and people panicking but it'll be about as deadly as the flu

[Anonymous No.12244270]

>>12244262
i just want her to step on my chest and make my lungs sick

[Anonymous No.12244273]

Stop spreading misinformation about Covid-19. You've been proven wrong for 6 months. It's bad, even if you survive you can have long term damage. So stop spreading a disease that is deadly. Wear a mask, keep your distance, and most of all, stop using statistics you don't understand to pretend like everything's fine. Listen to the doctors.

Dumb fucks.

[Anonymous No.12244283]

>>12243469
WHO says it's .02 which is the flu you tard

[Anonymous No.12244289]

>>12244283
i trust pol more than who at this point

[Anonymous No.12244292]

>>12244289
it's the same people who've been saying it, organizations finally admitted they were right

[Anonymous No.12244297]

>>12244292
source? I still see stories of healthy athletes with nothing wrong with them dying from it.

[Anonymous No.12244298]

>>12244283
The WHO has said no such thing. You're referring to a report where the WHO estimated that a billion people MAY have been exposed. Then you did the idiotic thing of dividing the people who MAY have been exposed with the number of CONFIRMED deaths. You are mixing up IFR with CFR numbers.

Pure stupidity.

[Anonymous No.12244316]

>>12243231
>The virus simply isn't as deadly as it was earlier this year.
I suspect this is not a change in the behaviour of the virus itself but rather a result of experience gained in treating it, things like knowing when and how to ventilate will be making a big difference in mortality rate by now.

[Anonymous No.12244324]

>>12242556
Aren't PCR tests too sensitive and picking dead virus rna or something?

[Anonymous No.12244327]

>>12243257
You won't see major events in places that fail to eradicate the virus until a vaccine is developed.
I give it another year or so

[Anonymous No.12244334]

>>12242656
Any person with more than two functional neurones realized that in may

[Anonymous No.12244337]

>>12244327
this is hopeless. It's never leaving and its too easy to spread.

[Anonymous No.12244339]

>>12244273
Not saying the virus itself isn't deadly. Just saying it isn't as prevalent as it once was, yet we are being force-fed narratives claiming this isn't the case.

There's a stark contrast between the statistics supplied by public health organizations and the subsequent conclusions drawn up by media players.

[Anonymous No.12244340]

>>12244283
The global IFR is 0.2, and between 0.3-0.6 in western nations with older populations

[Anonymous No.12244394]

>>12244340
sounds like nature thinks we should lose weight

[Anonymous No.12244397]

>>12244340
but shitposting aside we both know that's nowhere near high enough to justify the paranoid policies

[Anonymous No.12244625]

>>12242552
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_roulette
How do you know if (You) or someone you care about is going to be one of the people who is going to get so fucked up by it that they die?
>YOU DON'T
That's why it's such a big fucking deal.
That's why we have flu vaccines every year rather than just have a goddamned flu epidemic, too.
Do (You) really think it's worth the risk? If yes then go kiss a coronavirus patient and go home for 2 weeks and see what happens.

[Anonymous No.12244632]

>>12244625
There will always be a virus to be afraid of.

[Anonymous No.12244635]

>>12244625
a cold cause I have a functioning immune system

[Anonymous No.12244636]

>>12242558
Do you know what a rate is you fucking moron?

[Anonymous No.12244641]

>>12244632
>>12244635
>potential Darwin Award recipients
seems to be a lot of you guys around since March

Tell you what: go kill yourselves with coronavirus *all you want*, but if you infect others and you survive? We shoot you in the head.

[Anonymous No.12244647]

>>12244641
There is no winning with these people Anon. I was called a schizo/paranoid for calling the pandemic back in January.
People are not going to learn a thing until they get brain damage from hypoxia, or experience the death of someone they know. It takes suffering and pain to teach a human caution, not persuasion.

[Anonymous No.12245055]

>>12244647
>Death cures a fool
I used to wonder what that meant, but thanks to coronachan now I understand

[Anonymous No.12245075]

>>12244647
hello fellow tinfoil hatter :^)

[Anonymous No.12245162]

>>12244641
>but if you infect others and you survive?
Was the case every year with normal seasonal flu, but I guess you only care if newsmedia reports on a daily basis?
Pseudo-moral hypocritical bullshit, in my opinion.

>>12244339
>There's a stark contrast between the statistics supplied by public health organizations and the subsequent conclusions drawn up by media players.
Exactly!
This has been confusing me since March/April. Two completely different pictures. Unfortunately, most people inform themselves through newspapers instead of official statistics and reports, that must be the reason why the "Covid extremely dangerous" - narrative works.

[Anonymous No.12245219]

>>12244273
You need to go back

[Anonymous No.12245231]

>>12244625
>>12244273
Most people will get the virus anyway - the lockdowns can only delay it. The original point was to flatten the curve so that hospitals wouldn't be overflowing. They are empty right now, yet everyone is panicking and calling for another lockdown. Do you see the problem?

[Anonymous No.12245369]

>>12244647
you are schizo and you spreading paranoia is killing more people than this bad cold

[Anonymous No.12246260]

>>12242552
Money hungry medics? Who would have said that despite schizophreniacs who are talking for years about that.