Prediction thread: 2080-2100

[Anonymous No.12048310]

https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/02/17/844721/ai-openai-moonshot-elon-musk-sam-altman-greg-brockman-messy-secretive-reality/

>Every year, OpenAI’s employees vote on when they believe artificial general intelligence, or AGI, will finally arrive. It’s mostly seen as a fun way to bond, and their estimates differ widely. But in a field that still debates whether human-like autonomous systems are even possible, half the lab bets it is likely to happen within 15 years.

>One of the biggest secrets is the project OpenAI is working on next. Sources described it to me as the culmination of its previous four years of research: an AI system trained on images, text, and other data using massive computational resources. A small team has been assigned to the initial effort, with an expectation that other teams, along with their work, will eventually fold in. On the day it was announced at an all-company meeting, interns weren’t allowed to attend. People familiar with the plan offer an explanation: the leadership thinks this is the most promising way to reach AGI.


Alright, SERIOUS PREDICTIONS boys. Remove all cognitive biases and try to make an accurate range of predictions for end of century.

I predict: primitive AGI systems (very slow takeoff), modest life extension(20-30 year extension), neuralink reaching a modest comprehensiveness (blind intuition on this one desu), and VR almost indistinguishable (visually) from our reality. I admit I know very little about AI but as a bio grad student I am def bullish on life extension & the '9 hallmarks' being addressed. Additionally, Africa is having a massive population explosion. assuming their development into 1st world status stays on track w/ good education and literacy standards, in a decade or so we will have a MASSIVE influx of 20 year olds from there who can contribute intellectual wealth to society.

[Anonymous No.12048329]

>>12048310
I assume they stopped using ML because pretending that a bunch of stagnant algorithms will help reaching AGI based on pure bruteforce is retarded.

[Anonymous No.12048508]

>>12048310
By the end of the century?
Humans living in virtual anime worlds seeding spacecrafts out in order to convert more matter into computronium full of other intelligent entities in virtual anime environments.

[Anonymous No.12048534]

>>12048310
>I predict
Post your credentials with your prediction please

[Anonymous No.12048580]

>>12048508
Either this or Mad Max. 50/50 in my mind.

[Anonymous No.12048622]

This is going to plateau eventually.

[Anonymous No.12048668]

>>12048310
OpenAI has proved it doesn't have a clear vision on how to get to AGI.
Their "top secret" project is a pathetic PR move. They'll eventually announce GPT-4 two years later, now with 6 gorillion parameters, and still dumb as rock.

[Anonymous No.12048796]

>>12048310
>The year is 2100
>iPhone 100x released
>Global warming is 20 years away from causing a global disaster and we must cut carbon emissions
>economists promise us Africa is on the verge of an economic boom. India is set to become a superpower in just 20 years
> New hybrid car comes out
>Hollywood dutifully creating more product to consume.
>Marvel Avengers Reassemble for Battle VII in cinemas near you
> Government assures us the 1000 trillion dollar global debt is repayable and we are just in a glut at the moment due to the 2098 financial crash
>Property prices at 1000000 dollars for 2 bedroom appartment
>But its ok bc you are payed 3000000 dollars a year
>Bread costs 5000 dollars
>New Republicuck president promises withdrawal from Iraq, Syria and Iran after the 2082 wars of 'muh freedum'
> Demonrat senators appealing to the Somali vote, displeasing the majority hispanics. Did you know hispanics will be a minority in the USA by 2130?
>James Webb telescope announces further delays and has now cost 100 trillion dollars (adjusted for inflation) since conception. New launch date of 2101, February.
> Britain set to leave the EU after negotiations stalled in the 2070s
> Bill Clinton (the new one) did not have intercourse with that woman
> Kurtzgesagt releases new video for which they did a whole two hours of meticulous research
> The singularity is just 20 years away guys
>Ocean plastic leads to island the size of France in the pacific- UN headquarters relocated their.
>Greater Israel settles Morocco, if you think it is not Jewish land you are anti-semitic.
>Rupert Murdochs great great grandson owns 90% of media. dw tho a law has been passed, if it gets to 95% we'll show him what for
> Mars base by 2110!

[Anonymous No.12048818]

>>12048796
incredibly pessimistic. why?

[Anonymous No.12048825]

>>12048310
Personally I hope for space colonization that will be founded by the need for Helium-3 for our Fusion reactors, whihc will allow for independent habitats all across the solar system. Maybe by 2100 we will have begun to scoop up Saturn for that sweet, sweet H-3.
GRAIN technologies will be quite advanced allowing full-body cyborgization and superhuman AI intellects. Immortality will have been achieved by then and human augmentation will push mankind`s mental capabilities beyond genius.

[Anonymous No.12048829]

>>12048796
>James Webb telescope announces further delays and has now cost 100 trillion dollars (adjusted for inflation) since conception. New launch date of 2101, February.
Most realistic thing on the list.

[Anonymous No.12048841]

>>12048818
Its been too long since major innovations. The plagues than prevent progress are self-reinforcing.

[Anonymous No.12048851]

Either it will be singularity with millions of years of progress in 2030, or a total collapse.

[Anonymous No.12048861]

>>12048841
Quantum Computers? CRISPR? AI advancements? Medical nanomachines? Near room temperature superconductors? Progress is being made anon. It looks especially good for ITER with all material advancements we achieved in the last decade.

[Anonymous No.12048867]

>>12048861
K, except if good things happen I will be pleased. If they don't you will be disappointed.

[Anonymous No.12048874]

>>12048861
>Quantum computers
meme
>CRISPR
meme
>AI advancements?
Marketing BS, there are none
>Medical nanomachines?
Dont exist
>Near room temperature superconductors?
Dont exist

[Anonymous No.12048878]

>>12048867
Caution is good to not underestimate the complexities of the systems but pessimism hinders development. Strength is not to never fail, but to get back.

[Anonymous No.12048891]

>>12048874
Also this.
>Quantum computers
Our nuclear fission. Probs will work, no one will fund it
>CRISPR
Did have big impact on research of unicellular organisms. Humans are not unicellular.
>AI
Nowhere near. Unless 'advancement' means bezos knows what you had for tea last wednesday.
>Nanomachines
Do exist (I know a researcher who works on them) but they are not what you think they are. They're less 'robots' more chemicals that can enact one programme (kill cell or not kill cell)
>Superconductors
Probs the biggest meme. To discover something like this you need to just mix shit together and see what happens. Very few researchers have that kind of funding/ position in academia

[Anonymous No.12048892]

>primitive AGI systems (very slow takeoff)
There is no such thing as slow takeoff and primitive AGI systems. Either you never achieve AGI or go full singular in a short time.

[Anonymous No.12048899]

>>12048878
Here's a test. Remove screens from your life, how different is it from the average life in 1970? (I mean functionally)

Now imagine 1970s dude, how different is his life from 1910s? (Even if you remove air travel)

1910s dude. How different is his life from average 1860s?(Even if you remove the light bulb)

[Anonymous No.12048933]

>>12048891
>Did have big impact on research of unicellular organisms. Humans are not unicellular.
You are aware that the first genetically modified humans were already born?

[Anonymous No.12048941]

>>12048933
No proof the modification worked, or even still exists.

[Anonymous No.12048961]

How far away is full dive VR AKA total sensory immersion in a virtual world where everything you touch, taste, smell and see feels 100% real?

[Anonymous No.12048966]

>>12048961
think about what would be required for that.

[Anonymous No.12048971]

>>12048310
can you put a fat basedcel in-between the robot man and chuck noris, he's the one in front of the greek, in front of the turk/Armenian/mudslime, in front of the young african american fellow, in front of the slav, in front of Tooker.

[Anonymous No.12048993]

>>12048508
hot take: we're already in that virtual anime world, and one day we will be randomly woken up to seed a new planet.

[Anonymous No.12049006]

You are ignoring exponential growth... I wouldn't necessarily be partial to musk's 2025 prediction but only rudimentary agi 60-80 years from now seems very pessimistic. Personally I would put it in the 30's but I'm no expert (EE here)
>>12048891
You appear unaware of the fact that CRISPR is already being tested on humans. And the idea that quantum computing research won't be funded is ludicrous to say the least.


I don't why some people itt seem to be pessimistic for the sake of being pessimistic. No, the world is nowhere near a collapse, in fact now is the best time in human history, and it's only getting better. Spend less time on /pol/ or twitter or whatever and just look around you. everything is fine. there's no doomsday clock ticking

[Anonymous No.12050462]

>>12048891
>CRISPR
Its literally already being used you goober

[Anonymous No.12050497]

>>12048310
elon will make ai waifus real.

[Anonymous No.12050513]

>>12048310
>Additionally, Africa is having a massive population explosion. assuming their development into 1st world status stays on track w/ good education and literacy standards, in a decade or so we will have a MASSIVE influx of 20 year olds from there who can contribute intellectual wealth to society.
Laughed out loud at this one, good bait

[Anonymous No.12051289]

>>12048310
Fast take off beginning in 2023. one week- one month after agi is invented earth is turned into a ringworld with multiple levels and over 1000x the serface area. Also anime is real. This is not satire.

[Anonymous No.12051362]

>>12051289
>This is not satire.
Then you are a retard

[Anonymous No.12051459]

>>12049006
>everything is fine
No it really isn't
Macro innovation declining. g decreasing. debt rising. Suicides rising. Depression rates increasing. Drug use increasing. Wages stagnating.
Modernity and cultural decline: A biobehavioural perspective btfos this attitude. Has a whole chapter dedicated to disproving Stephen Pinkers 'everything is dandy' narrative you seem to have adopted.

[Anonymous No.12051471]

>>12048310
>Additionally, Africa is having a massive population explosion. assuming their development into 1st world status stays on track w/ good education and literacy standards,
>assuming their development into 1st world status stays on track w/ good education and literacy standards,
>development into 1st world status
>good education and literacy standards
>on track
>assuming

Anon, I...

[Anonymous No.12051475]

>>12050513
On the bright side we can turn their bodies into chum after the genocide and use it to help replenish oceanic fish stocks once we nuke the chinsects into oblivion.

[Anonymous No.12051490]

>>12051471
India and China have 1 billion each people but Africa is overpopulated. Snow nigger logic.

[Anonymous No.12051495]

The future is poor and religious because poor people and religious people are the only ones who make children and considering the paradigm shift of SJWjewishglobohomo governements they are nowhere near ready to do anything that solves any problem and will keep increasing the pressure until the terrible explosion in the end of the chain fucks us all.
Speaking of science fiction is useless because muslims and poorfags won't do science. Future is globalized third world and extinction of european men. The only "saving grace" is the soulless bugmen army and the CCP enslaving any non chinese through IA and drones but it seems they are going to get fucked economically soon and when the globohomo results will be too obviously catastrophic, they are going to blame the chinese instead of themselves, so the ccp dictatorship is unlikely to survive. Can't escape the globohomo third worlder coomer.

Cheers.

[Anonymous No.12051507]

>>12051490
India and China both have thriving domestic STEM industries and are world-class industrial leaders that can build jet fighters and aircraft carriers and send probes to the moon and Mars on their 100% domestically designed and built rockets, while all Africa can manage is shit like this:
https://youtu.be/0h_cqTCT5g0

It's not just quantity, but quality that matters.

[Anonymous No.12051512]

>>12048310
>assuming their development into 1st world status stays on track w/ good education and literacy standards, in a decade or so we will have a MASSIVE influx of 20 year olds from there who can contribute intellectual wealth to society.
(You)

[Anonymous No.12051515]

>>12051512
>>12048310
>biology grad student
checks out. keep it to yourself next time dumbass

[Anonymous No.12051519]

>>12051507
at this rate globohomo will make sure muslims make more babies than you, dont get your hopes up Rahul

[Anonymous No.12051547]

>>12051507
Nice try, they're still overpopulated compared to Africa, sending probes to the moon doesn't change the definition.

[Anonymous No.12051690]

>>12048310
Not a utopia nor a dystopia awaits us but new complexities, new potentials and new conflicts. Augmentations mostly won't be developed in black programs but will either be byproduct of medical research and follow in its application the supply/demand rule of all emerging technologies. Human modifications will be less horrific and glamorous than many think, it will be rather mundane. Or will become mundane because people do underestimate the therapeutic time humans will need to adapt to their augmentations. Transhuman technologies will not be the next computer or cellphones, but will become the next house.
I doubt that GRAIN augmentations will develop as smartphones did, because each augmentation will require a extensive treatment. Augments like nanosymbionts, genetic engineering and proteus nanovirusis are also autonomous thus can exist without a supporting system. Even bionic organ replacements wouldn't require a system and could operate independently.
The biggest issue with human augmentation is the growing gap between the rich and poor. Coupled with automatization your common baseline will not be able to compete with augmented rich or get access to the necessary enhancements. That's why I see a cardinal importance of establishing a Universal Health Care System that does not just seeks to treat people but to enable and enhance them. A society will benefit immensely if its children will all be born healthy, fit and smart and if it let's no potential go wasted by enabling anyone to have access to good cybernetic and nanotechnological treatments. In developed nations this might work out, but then the already existing gap between rich and poor countries will grow even larger. In 100 years a common european or japanese will differ fundamentally from anyone that grow up in a third world.

[Anonymous No.12051693]

>>12051690
Just like the computer, cars or penicillin at first the rich will be the users, but the rules of demand/supply will enable anyone to get augmentations.
>I would not benefit from this in any fashion.
Oh you would, especially in regards to medical treatments. Most diseases, even aging will become treatable. The costs for augmentations will not stay high, especially biological ones will see a fast decline in prize thanks to CRISPR. The first Ford of human augmentation will become a trillionaire, augmentations won`t stay a product for the rich - it will become avaible to the masses a decade or two after hitting the market, sooner than what happened to the car and computers. In 2050 you might afford yourself nanosymbiont treatment, that keeps you healthy, rejuvinates you a bit, enhances your physique and gives you a better focus.

[Anonymous No.12053352]

>>12051693
how are you so deluded? is this real life?

[Anonymous No.12053483]

>>12053352
A complex world, with its possibilities, can be scary.

[Anonymous No.12055193]

bumper

[Anonymous No.12056645]

>>12051459
Lol. In America. China is flourishing

[Anonymous No.12056669]

I agree with all of OP's predictions. They seem pretty reasonable for 2100, barring some major catastrophe between now and then. I think there'll be some interesting new things that no one today is predicting, as well.

>>12051693
Obviously this'll happen at some point but I really doubt it'll happen by 2050. I think people need to be more conservative with estimates for these breakthrough technologies.

>>12048329
ML is still not fully tapped out. It has a lot of potential. No, it won't get us to AGI, but it'll be able to do some interesting things. And AGI may include it as one of many components, kind of like how our own brains have ML-ish components in them which work with all of the other components.

[Anonymous No.12057784]

[Anonymous No.12058676]

>>12051507
China and India have more then 2 billion combines contained in much smaller area yet Africa is overpopulated?

[MD,500k,138IQ,GOD No.12058686]

>>12048310
>African 20 he olds
>Intellectual contributions
>African

[Anonymous No.12058819]

>>12058676
It`s about the disparity of economic and population growth. In the future africa might have too many people in the lines of 4 billions who couldn`t be covered by the emergent industrial/service sectors. This is an issue many african politicans know of, the ethopians for example, and they try to limit the population growth to managable levels.

[Anonymous No.12059916]

We cyberpunk now

[Anonymous No.12061038]

How long until gene therapy can give all women completely natural E-cup boobs?

[Anonymous No.12061129]

>>12061038

>wanting just massive tits
>instead of hoping for a gene therapy future that produces busty fit

[Anonymous No.12061177]

>>12051507

>retards still comparing countries to an entire continent

Not him but I'm getting really tired of this shit meme. India and China both have a dedicated accepted national language, over a billion people each, with realitively similar genetics and 99% of the people accept the nation's existence.

Africa is continent, where 70% of all the politically drawn country lines (made by Europeans) aren't fully acknowledged by a good sum of the locals. Most of said countries national languages are ducked taped European ones because no one agreed on a dedicated local African language out of the hundreds in each region. Despite everyone lumping Africans (especially sub-saharan Africans) all together they are not a monolithic ethnic group like Han Chinese.

Which leaves basically countries like Nigeria, Egypt, Ethiopia, Rwanda and South Africa (all who are significantly genetically different from each other) to pick up the slack. Together they account for roughly 470 million. Which barely make up half of either China or India's population. With really only Nigeria being the main country with ethnic black Africans that actually can into STEM at a decent level and send academically competent immigrants to US, Europe, India and China.

Why do we even gone this road comparing Africa to other countries when the only relevant African country 9 times out of 10 is Nigeria?

[Anonymous No.12061895]

>>12061038
>busty-fit chick
>still lazy as fuck
Yeah no thanks.

[Anonymous No.12061905]

>>12061177
470m is still more than USA, and despite having over 50% more people than USA, they still didn't come up with anything good.

If you didn't know, USA isn't a single country, it is in the name, but niggers probably wouldn't figure that out if I didn't tell them either.

[Anonymous No.12061969]

>>12048310
AGI by 2029. Kurzweil is right.

[Anonymous No.12061983]

>>12049006
This.
Not many people realize that today more people die from obesity than starvation ...
Yes, the world is getting overpopulated, climate change is happening but the trust in science and its help is growing, thus we need to rely on it again to save our fat asses from doomsday.
I assume that AGI will be developed in 2050, but who knows maybe it won't be developed ever.

[Anonymous No.12062008]

>>12048310

>Additionally, Africa is having a massive population explosion. assuming their development into 1st world status stays on track w/ good education and literacy standards, in a decade or so we will have a MASSIVE influx of 20 year olds from there who can contribute intellectual wealth to society.

top kek

[Anonymous No.12062547]

I believe the next major step for humanity (after AGI) will be removing our brains and hooking them up to machines. Life extension is possible, but will be much easier if focused on just preserving the thinky bits. At that point we just put the brain in an android body or just hook it into a giant server complex to live within the internet.

This will also be how we explore the stars, projecting our consciousness into our starships. This will also solve the hard problem of the 'virtual' replication of you not being you.

[Anonymous No.12062568]

>>12061905

First of all why are you moving goal posts? This conversation was about India, China and the continent of Africa not burger land. Second USA is a fringe example because at least 35% of intellectual contribution comes from foreign born nationals. Possiblely even more considering its history with first generation immigrants from Europe and Asia and institutions of higher learning.