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/sci/ - Science & Math


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11887853 No.11887853 [Reply] [Original]

Where is everybody? Why does the universe, at a glance, seem lifeless?

>> No.11887928

>>11887853
The galaxy center should outshine the full moon. What is in the way that it blocks the light so efficiently?

>> No.11888011

>>11887853
no one is stupid enough to use radio broadcasts for communications, they all use waveguides like optical fiber.

>> No.11888023

In all likelihood, there is other intelligent life out there somewhere
In all likelihood, we will never encounter other intelligent life

>> No.11888027

>>11887853
Humans tend to forget how absolutely mammoth the universe is. Even if there is an intelligent species relatively close, say 100 million light years away, we still wouldn't know shit about it. Even using the most accurate ways to look at the cosmos, we would only see their planet as it existed 100 million years ago, because of the speed of light. So we would see it only before the emergence of their intelligent life. And if they are sending out broadcasts, like we do, that would take even longer to reach us.

There probably is other intelligent life out there, but the sheer magnitude of the universe makes it impossible to see or hear any proof of it.

>> No.11888030

>>11888027
I've subscribed to the theory of our big bang being 1 of multiple big bang's going off all the time in the universe
https://youtu.be/PZbKarcIJ7o

>> No.11888058

>>11887928
>>11887853
All that black shit is dust.

>> No.11888071

>>11888058
How do you know it isn't something more?

>> No.11888844

Measure with ridiculous things, get ridiculous results.

>> No.11888847

>>11887853
we have not proven ourselves worthy to join the interstellar community

>> No.11888913

>>11887853
Because abiogenesis is as insurmountable a step as it seems and we really are alone in the universe

>> No.11889113

>>11888027
hubble constant (roughly 2 cm/s per ly) means that the 100M ly grows by 2 million km each second. the incoming photons have to plow thru that distance too
Before getting half-way here, more new space is formed in front of the photon than behind it. After reaching the half-way, more new space is formed in back of the photon than in front of it.
https://youtu.be/6CUe5SkMSIo?t=3m20s

>> No.11889131

>>11887853

Define life. If you define life as DNA then yeah, we might be alone. But you are thinking like a human. Think like the Universe: life as consuming, replicating, interacting and so life is everywhere. Stars are alive by the broadest definition. Us humans, we are the Universe come to life and that gradient of life is not as clear cut as you might think.

>> No.11889134

>>11887853
You ever read The Three Body Problem?

This Chinese guy proposed The Dark Forest Scenario in that book.

The universe is a dark forest with lonely orphans in it. The forest is also full of predators. The predators are silent and powerful hunters. They sit quietly and listen for the call of lost children. Any child who calls out in the dark immediately summons hungry predators who eat them up.

If a child is close to another one, and has any sense, he isnt going to call out to the stranger near him. He will sit and wait and watch. If his neighbor is foolish and calls out, the wise child will sneak up and kill the loud stranger so that his calls do not summon a hunter.


If we suppose that there are dangerous aliens and wise aliens and foolish aliens , we will see nothing and hear nothing, precisely because of the Dark Forest

>> No.11889147

>>11889134

This.

>> No.11889152

>>11887853
Congratulations on rediscovering the fermi paradox.

>> No.11889169
File: 154 KB, 1920x1080, Reach_menu_background_4.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
11889169

>>11887853
>>11888913

The native americans lived generations thinking they were alone, but, out of nowhere, not a single warning, white skinned humans arrived with sailing ships, firearms and many diseases. They were slaughtered.

They weren't prepared, they were foolish and ignorant to delay or deny development, they faced the consequences.

Now look at us, look how worthless humanity is at the moment. We are now space natives, 0 progress towards the next big step, ignorant, foolish, just waiting for our space europeans to come, like lamb to the slaughter.

>> No.11889170

>>11889134
scary.

>> No.11889172

>>11889134
I don't think it's extremely likely that species won't grow more peaceful over time, as intelligence both makes resources more easily available and war more costly. More likely explanation is, as I said:
1. Living on planets is basically the equivalent of living in a forest. Not something that more advanced species would prefer.
2. That space dust possibly is aliens.
3. Civs prefer areas with high concentration of stars, galaxy centers or solar cluster, with solar clusters made by more advanced species.

>> No.11889176

>>11889172
>2. That space dust possibly is aliens.

What?

>> No.11889186

>>11889176
The space dust. That prevents us from seeing the galaxy center. It's aliens. The light is blocked as they collect it. That's where everyone is. They are everywhere.

>> No.11889188

because God created life on earth. that's why we can't recreate it or find new forms of it.

>> No.11889214

>>11889172
There are numerous psychological profiles that a space fairing species could have and it would change over time based on their level of technology. Some races might be super organisms with no concept of autonomy or individuality. Others might just be extremely territorial or desperate for resources. Others might be extremely xenophobic. If we game the list of possible scenarios, a highly xenophobic species that does everything in its power to avoid detection and snubs out any species that it finds immediately stands the best chance for survival. Even if it is not out of fear or greed, removing species that make their presence known will reduce the overall level of violence in the universe.

Imagine you are in the milky way, minding your own business, but you've seen evidence of whole galaxy clusters destroyed by some unknown race. You dont need to know why it happened, just that it can happen. So you quietly go about your business. Then some earthlings have the bad manners to start broadcasting low power radio to the whole universe. Not much later, you start seeing more powerful transmissions. They are sending out probes which are also broadcasting. They start fooling with gravitational waves and neutrinos and exotic matter. This is a huge flashing light, pointing at this arm of the spiral galaxy you also inhabit. That's just rude. Genocidally rude. Cataclysmic level rude.

Even if it takes a hundred million years to reach the wrong set of antennas or tentacles or trans dimensional membranes, that clumsy broadcast might also spell the end of your species. So you just snuff it out.

>> No.11889228

>>11889170
It's like a fun ghost story to me. I enjoyed that novel. It was about the Maoists revolution, radio astronomy, high energy physics, game theory, and a mysterious game people were invited to play.

>> No.11889274

>>11888027
Pretty much.
The observable universe is around 76 billion light years in diameter. There was a repeating radio wave pattern detected about 1.5 billion light years away. There's some speculation as to whether it could be coming from a huge construct like a dyson sphere. If that were the case, then this civilization would have already reach Kardashev II 1.5 billion years in the past. And here we here, a bunch of slightly evolved but still very much retarded chimps on this miserable planet. Considering that half of us don't even know which bathroom we're supposed to use, do you really think an advanced alien civilization would take any kind of interest in us?

>> No.11889294

>>11889134
sounds like how china treats its minorities

>> No.11889296

>>11889274
93 bn ly

>> No.11889301

>>11889134
this is some urqan masters shit

>> No.11889308

>>11889228
the human computer was cool too

>> No.11889481

>>11889214
That seems unlikely.
First, keeping such an extremely agressive species united would be incredibly difficult. What force would prevent it from descending into civil war and mutual infights?
Second is that this strategy only works when you are the strongest of all. Otherwise you motivate others to resist you and destroy you. Any of your ship would be attaked on sight, you would have no peace, it makes the best strategy for everybody else to spend anything they can spare on harming you. The long string of pyrrhic victories would eventually exhaust you.

>> No.11889494

>>11889134
This is probably the stupidest explanation.
The simple explanation to the Fermi paradox is that our comms aren't sophisticated enough.
Try communicating with anyone via one of those Morse code war era radios,no one is gonna answer

>> No.11889517

>>11889481
It could be some sort of hive mind or AI or just a single entity. Why would there be ships? They / it could just hurl rocks or gamma radiation or whatever

>> No.11889527

>>11889517
Ants are the closest we know and they have similar problems. Most ants generally defend their nest. The warrior ants are constantly on the move, with no permanent nests. The most dominant species of ant by dar in any climate that suits the are argentine ants who don't fight, and they are the only species with large scale colonies.
So I think it may not be that different on the galactic scale: q major peaceful civilusation, occasional isolationists, possibly some warrior species that constantly move to avoid getting hunted themselves.

>> No.11889533

>>11889134
There is no reason to attack a civilization. There is no resources gained from doing so. Doesn’t seem likely that you’d Just attack your neighbor for no reason. It’s would need to be random cultural reasons to do so.

>> No.11889537

>>11889533
Potential threat management, can't know for sure that another race will be rational and not try to destroy you.

>> No.11889539

>>11889494
Wrong. The simplest explanation to the Fermi paradox is that no other intelligent life exists.

>> No.11889549

>>11889539
That explanation relies on the assumption that Earth is somehow extremely unique. The simplest explanation is that aliens exist, but we don't know how to spot them.

>> No.11889559

>>11889549
Saying that life exists elsewhere in the universe and then evolved to gain self-aware intelligence is also an extreme assumption. Why is saying the Earth is unique more unlikely than that? We exist and can observe that we do so if we are unique we have a distorted perspective on that because it seems like a guaranteed outcome to us.

>> No.11889579

>>11889559
No it isn't. It is not an assumption that Earth is not exceptional just like there is no reason to assume an experiment will only work once.
We know for sure that high levels of intelligence evolved independently several times on Earth, why would it not happen elsewhere?

>> No.11889584

>>11889579
> We know for sure that high levels of intelligence evolved independently several times on Earth,
wat?!

>> No.11889611

>>11889584
Cetaceans, elephants and humans evolved intelligence mostly independently. The common ancestor of birds and mammals also presumably wasn't particularly intelligent. Some arachnids are capable of planning, and social insects like ants, bees and wasps seem to be especially intelligent for their size. Octopus is also intelligent. The brain itself developed independently in insects, vertebrates and octopuses. Comb jellies evolved neurons independently from other life.

>> No.11889614

>>11889611
That is not the same thing as fully conscious self aware intelligence that is capable of developing communication & technology. That has happened once and once only.

>> No.11889616

>>11889614
How is it not the same thing?

>> No.11889621

>>11889616
Because that only applies to humans and none of the rest.

>> No.11889634

>>11889621
Of course it's tautologically true that people are the only intelligent soeaces if you define it that way. It doesn't make sense to define it that way.

>> No.11889637

>>11889614
How do you know other life forms on earth aren't on their way to become more intelligent? Many animals for example use objects as tools. Maybe in a few hundred thousand years, octopi or spiders would develop technology or societies or whatever. We were just the first on earth that we know about

>> No.11889640

>>11889634
Because that's part of the factors in the Drake equation. Only a fraction of worlds can support life, only a fraction of those then develop life, only a fraction of those develop intelligence and only a fraction of those become smart enough for communication between stars.

>>11889637
Because nothing in evolution theory means intelligence is some kind of end goal. Evolution doesn't work like that.

>> No.11889642

>>11889134
this literally assumes that the universe around us is fundamentally predatory which indicates a lack of necessary resources for intelligent life. which in a lot of ways seems asinine considering how much breathing room there is and how advanced the technology needs to be to get away from your home planet.

>> No.11889667

>>11889640
>Because nothing in evolution theory means intelligence is some kind of end goal. Evolution doesn't work like that.

Well we know of at least a few hominids that were getting more intelligent, with us somehow coming out on top probably because of intelligence. If intelligence provides advantages, it could be selected for. Doesn't need to be the end goal but it could happen either way because it already did happen.

>> No.11889672

It seems empty because any sufficiently advanced society will understand zooming around the universe isn't actually that useful. Most of it is boring, lifeless and a pain in the ass.

Everything points towards computing being the real endgame of technological progress. Aliens are probably far more interested in creating a VR paradise than interacting with us smelly chimps.

>> No.11889678

>>11889667
> If intelligence provides advantages, it could be selected for.
True but if there are lots of traits that provide a benefit, which is typically the case, evolution won't prefer to pick intelligence over the rest simply because it's better in the long term.

>> No.11889681
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11889681

>>11887853
It's probably all around but cloaking itself from us because galacticly we are pic related

>> No.11889695

>>11889640
But why? Life in fact could exist in the majority of stellar systems. As the examples from Earth shows, evolution of intelligence seems to be pretty much given.
>>11889678
It would, that's how evolution works.

>> No.11889721

>>11889695
>the examples from Earth shows, evolution of intelligence seems to be pretty much given.
but the Earth is only a single planet and only a single evolutionary tree so you can't say when happened here would apply everywhere with 100% confidence.

> It would, that's how evolution works.
nope. evolution selects for traits that mean an entity is able to replicate. that's it. In an exaggerated scenario you could say that an animal with bigger feet was more likely to survive. Selecting for intelligence may be "better" selection long term and in our opinion but evolution doesn't give a flying fuck about that and would select for feet.

>> No.11889738

>>11889721
But it happened several times on that tree, which means that intelligence doesn't need any special setup in order to evolve.
Natural selection doesn't pick more advantageous traits over less advantageous ones, it favors all advantageous traits at once, unless they are mutually exclusive or otherwise wouldn't work together well.

>> No.11889756

>>11889738
But that requires a brain and all its neurological components to have evolved first. That is a staggering number of prerequisites that are needed before intelligence as a trait can appear. That's not a give evolutionary path. Even the odds of going from single cell to multicellular, or even the absorption of mitochondria in the cell structure seem so unlikely they may have only happened once. There's no guarantee the same would apply on another world.

>> No.11889759
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11889759

>>11889579
>It is not an assumption that Earth is not exceptional just like there is no reason to assume an experiment will only work once.
Even the simplest self-replicating RNA needs somewhere between 60 to 100 nucleotides. Weigh that against estimates that in our volume of space, nothing above 20 in length should have had time to form by random emergence, and it looks like we are pretty alone in this observable universe (and the many next ones)

>> No.11889778

>>11889756
But as I said, neurons just on Earth evolved twice and brains at least three times. This should clearly contradict the idea that it requires a sequence of lucky accidents.

>> No.11889784

>>11889778
> neurons just on Earth evolved twice and brains at least three times
citation needed.

>> No.11889789

>>11889784
https://www.quantamagazine.org/comb-jelly-neurons-spark-evolution-debate-20150325/

>> No.11889809
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11889809

>>11889789
Interesting but even the article mentions that the consensus isn't favoring their argument. It's not close to being proof about neurons (yet).

>> No.11889915

>>11889759
I don’t know why abiogenesis is always ignored as the great filter when it seems the most obvious

>> No.11889932

>>11889169
Irrelevant analogy that does not apply to the topic of the thread.

>> No.11889933

>>11889915
It's not ignored but it doesn't seem to be as big a barrier as it was once thought to be. The proto-molecules needed for some early form of a ribosome seem to be more common that originally thought. Once a mechanism for some kind of chemical replication occurs then a form of molecular evolution can happen and kick start the entire process for life.

>> No.11889934

>>11887853
Everything is too far apart

>> No.11889936

"Where is everyone"

There exists a hard upper limit of technology that precludes ever becoming a space empire.
The universe is teeming with aliens like ourselves, and they can't surpasse the limit either.
Sci fi fantasy shit like Dyson spheres and artificial super intelligence do not actually exist and never will.

>> No.11889947

>>11889936

We could colonize the galaxy with 1980s tech. Sure, it would take millions of years, but thats nothing compared to the age of the universe.

>> No.11889949

>>11889947
Except we can't and you just saying we can, doesn't make it so.

>> No.11889961

>>11889936
That makes zero sense. Von Neumann probes do not take impossibly advanced technology to produce and they would get the job done.

>> No.11890320

>>11889533
If a given species lives on a long enough timeline the native system it lives in will inevitably suffer natural disasters such as gamma ray bursts or supernova.

If habitable or resource rich solar systems are rare, these long lived species will want to spread out and obtain them and also hedge their bet against annihilation. Purely just to spread out over a larger area to avoid extinction in the event of the death of your homeworld and its star is a good reason

>> No.11890327

>>11889539
That's definitely possible, but to me it just makes sense that if there is a hard limit on the physics of interstellar travel , there is little point to making yourself known or reaching out to other species if you can never directly communicate or contact

>> No.11890330

>>11889308
Oh yeah, Sophon? Or however it was spelled?

>> No.11890348

>>11888030
then how come we can't observe other universes?

If they're so common couldn't they bump into one another?

>> No.11890358

>>11887853
Universe is big. Bigger than anything you can picture in your mind

>> No.11890376

>>11890348
Infation is a beast.
It inflated a speck smaller than a proton to a ball the size of a grapefruit in 1E-32 sec.
That's over 10000 times the speed of light.

>> No.11890380

>>11890376
citation needed

>> No.11890383

>>11889961
Those probes would have to be advanced as fuck. We can't build them yet. They require serious AI and robotic sophistication we don't possess.

>> No.11890404

>>11890380
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflationary_epoch

>> No.11890582

>>11889932

>Topic is about alien life and the location of it
>Does not apply

What a fucking retard.

>> No.11890591

>>11889936

>Trust me, I'm very fucking smart

Fuck off.

Just because something did not happen doesn't mean it will never happen.
Humanity before the creation of airplanes always mocked the people who believed in human flying machines, saying they were impossible, now here we are.

Pseudo-intelectuals like you are a disservice to the progress of humanity. I wouldn't be bothered by such low IQ opinion if ignorant opinions didn't spread like wild fire, possibly stopping a future scientist from achieving a great goal.

>> No.11890642
File: 29 KB, 400x286, bbe895c3c3c55bf019d3e2cb7e8019a1.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
11890642

>>11887853
The universe cant be infinite despite what >>11889113 says. If the universe was infinite , there would be an infinite area of space temperatures being absolute zero or close . Heat loss would be so rapid that all energy from all universes would dissipate infinitely. Am I wrong here? Does the difference between (hot) and (cold) multiply the rate of heat loss?
Pic related is my second point. The universe is either a simulation or God did it.

>> No.11890658
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11890658

Universe is empty. If we calculate all known stellar bodies , and determine the percentage with inhabited planets, well it's pretty obvious. Science suggests that only one world is populated. They are 2mad to admit. You can test this, by testing other worlds. Find life? No? Because factually speaking, Earth is unique and so are humans.
>muh time frames
Muh early aquatic life and dinosaurs. You cant explain the absence of micro fossils in space.

>> No.11890672

>>11890658

>"If we have never seen aliens it means they don't exist" the post

>> No.11890678

>we're the only intelligent life in the universe
>all star systems are free for the taking
>the time for making the human galactic empire is now
nah let's just keep wasting money and resources instead of getting off this rock asap

>> No.11890683

>>11890672
>never seen a dragon , why no exist
Low iq post , u must go back to sci I

>> No.11890686

The world was destroyed by God and Satan. You exist in a postapocalytipc universe after a cataclysmic war. This is the only world remaining.


Jeremiah 4:24
I looked at the earth, and it was formless and empty; and at the heavens, and their light was gone.24I looked at the mountains, and they were quaking; all the hills were swaying.25I looked, and there were no people; every bird in the sky had flown away.26I looked, and the fruitful land was a desert; all its towns lay in ruins before the LORD, before his fierce anger.27This is what the LORD says: "The whole land will be ruined, though I will not destroy it completely.

Genesis 1:2 the earth was a waste

>> No.11890698
File: 57 KB, 420x640, fd1ebec9f89b4a3322406e8bcd5770c3.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
11890698

>>11889214
Your entire thesis rests on the assumption that the highly xenophobic species is the most advanced. Under such a scenario it would make "sense" for them to eliminate potential competition beforebit gets off the ground.

Another more likely possibility is that they are NOT the most advanced species, in which case going around exterminating everybody else would be a terrible idea, it would be like a kid in a forest going around poking hornets' nests, at some point they will poke the wrong one and they might get their shit pushed in by a more advanced xenophile people who see it as their mission to protect primitive civilizations for religious / cultural / ethical / environmentalist reasons. Maybe the primitive people were seeded by a more advanced civilization.

The reality is that alien civilizations can probably follow a large number of different cultural values and motivations that may be incomprehensive to us, because they are, well, alien.

Just look at Earth before globalization and the adoption of our current xenophile-democratic dominant ethos. Human civilizations had all sorts of extreme beliefs and ethics, from the radically pacifist Moriori who didn't even understand warfare, to the warmongering Mongols who would raze entire cities to the ground just to spread fear, to the fanatically religious like the Aztecs who saw warfare mostly as a way to capture sacrifice victims to feed their Gods, or the Muslims and Crusaders who saw it as their mission to convert everyone to their religion, etc.

Alien civilizations could adopt any of these ethical systems or even more strange ones that would be incomprehensible to us. We just don't know.

>> No.11890711

>>11890698
Assuming they are not micro sized or macro (like the size of our observable universe) . Hell , most folks don't know what a micro animal is. And then you get into the feasibility of sentient energy and waves , how do you even measure their sentience? And plants , they move so sloooowww. But if u watch them, it's very alive. Organisms moving an inch every thousand years would be imperceptible. J just brainstorming here, like a subterranean massive mold moving plate tectonics.

>> No.11890716

>>11890683

>Wrong usage of comma
>Abrevation you with "u"
>Compares intelligent life forms, like humans, to fairy tale creatures
>Somehow claims others of being low IQ

Just hang yourself mate, you are of no use for humanity.

And also anyone that is your descendant, if you have any.

>>11890686

Didn't know this was /b/ or /pol/

>> No.11890917
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11890917

>>11888027
This, the universe is too fucking big and the light speed is too slow., i can't see a good future for mankind if we will still act like retards for a couple of decades. Also why would a superior species contact us? we have nothing to offer, even for a type 1 civilization, not to mention a type 2 or 3 civilization. Most likely they would study us from a distance and then leave.

>> No.11890918
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11890918

>>11889134
this book changed my life, highly recommended reading for the patricians out there

>> No.11890931

>>11890917
Your image is very good but I don't like the pessimistic, self-hating and anti-Human tone of your post. We have done some fucked up shit in our history, and there is still some fucked up shit happening today, but Humans are capable of greatness, there is no reason to assume aliens would automatically be more enlightened and more moral than us.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mo-RcRQeqA8

>> No.11890936

>>11887853
inverse square law

>> No.11890950
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11890950

>>11889933
People have been saying that surely life will turn out to be common if we just push our research a little further since like Miller-Urey, but look where we are still. The leap in complexity between prebiotic material and even the simplest strand of RNA needed for a ribosome is enormous, and unless there exists some process that polymerises nucleotides better or faster than chance statistical processes, not a single RNA should have spontaneously emerged in any 1 observable universe in the age of our universe, and we are certainly alone

>>11889134
>>11888027
This is just absolutely braindead

>> No.11890954

>>11890931
Not that anon, but I want to defend his point, waht do you suppose, a civilization where half of the population is an actively working force on delaying by taking away resources with putting nothing back into the advancement of the civilization is gonna get to Type1? Most of the population needs to behave in an organized matter for them to be effective at such a large scale. Unless we, planet-wise not act together for shared, in a sense pre-agreed plan, we won't advance imho. So while we exhibit behaviours that go against this, why would any Type1+ civilization bother talking with us? Compared to their average level one would assume that our averaged level is akin to other tribalistic animals on an order of magnitude

>> No.11890963

>>11890950
Good point on the RNA formation, very possibly this planet is the first by chance

>> No.11890965

>>11890950
The fact that rna being created by random processes is so highly improbable is evidence that it is most likely produced by some ordered process we don’t fully understand, in which case it is very highly probable that the same ordered process has occurred elsewhere in the universe and we are not the sole extant instance of life.

>> No.11890972

>>11890965
t. doesn't understand probabilistics

>> No.11890979

>>11890954
>a civilization where half of the population is an actively working force on delaying by taking away resources with putting nothing back into the advancement of the civilization
Very subjective analysis, would like to see a citation for the idea that 50% of Humanity is holding the other 50% back. Where are you getting this percentage from? If it's an attempt to shit on menial laborers, artists or philosophers, their work is a fundamental part of Human civilization.

>Most of the population needs to behave in an organized matter for them to be effective at such a large scale. Unless we, planet-wise not act together for shared, in a sense pre-agreed plan, we won't advance imho.
Agree with this. However the whole of Human history hasn't been written yet.

>So while we exhibit behaviours that go against this, why would any Type1+ civilization bother talking with us? Compared to their average level one would assume that our averaged level is akin to other tribalistic animals on an order of magnitude
And how do you know that we are not one of the first species to develop sapience? The universe is incredibly young. Perhaps we are the precursors, mean to guide others to sapience. Perhaps we will be the Type 3 civilization reaching out to others thousands of years from now.

>> No.11890981

>>11890965
>The fact that rna being created by random processes is so highly improbable is evidence that it is most likely produced by some ordered process we don’t fully understand
How does that follow, at all? The anthropic principle very easily explains why we can find that our circumstances are extremely improbable

>> No.11890990

>>11890950
https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/jacs.9b10796

>> No.11890996

>>11890979
First point: Ah, a small misunderstanding here: the percentage is an example, not a literal one, I'm talking about the fact of such detrimental groups acting like forces within humanity exists. Under these groups, by no way I should mean artists, philosopers and else, agreed on their importance, I'm talking about the covid-denier rednecks, or the ghettos everywhere in the world, they need to be integrated or deleted for further advanvement (which brings up questions about humanism and it's validity yet again!). On the second: sure, but this an investigation on the current period.
Third: Also very possible, simikar point from >>11890950

>> No.11891055

>>11890996
Well if we limit ourselves strictly to the current period, it could be that we weren't contacted because the distances involved are just too big and unsurmountable, perhaps there are no Type 3 civilizations and everybody else is on par with our technological level, or less, or perhaps we are truly alone either because we are the first or because intelligent life is extremely rare, the reality is that we don't have enough information to know.

Then again, maybe we were contacted. The Wow! signal fits all of what is expected of an alien transmission, except it was a one off and didn't repeat.

>> No.11891134

>>11890996
They don't hold back anything. How would they? And if history is anything to go by, we should let capitalism take us into space, not some grand plan of central planning.

>> No.11891214

There might be life in Europa

>> No.11891411

>>11890698
My thesis is just that I liked the premise of a book which reads like a parable. I also think it makes a lot of sense.

There is no stable configuration where two separate lineages of spacefaring species maintain peaceful coexistence. Not over an extended timeline. Maybe xenophobic isn't the right word because it obviously has a connotation that it carries beyond "believing that interactions with outsiders will lead to trouble".

No two species could possibly meet on a perfectly equal technological footing and this will lead to outright eradication of the lesser species, or they will become the ward / subject of the stronger species. This is even less stable because it means the lesser species will eventually try to overthrow or escape the greater one or the stronger will find them to be too much trouble. In the end, the shared resources will still eventually become scarce because now two races are trying to share them and they are used up 2x as quickly or there is an unequal distribution of them.

Do you see where I am going? The real 3 Body Problem is to find a stable configuration between two competitors and a finite resource.

>> No.11891430

>>11890954
No, the key is to give up on trying to pull up the lesser groups who don't contribute. A uniform culture is bound to stagnate and fall into decline. You need constant competition and experimentation to drive differentiation and progress. For humans , the organising principles for progress have been war and trade. We innovate to increase our wealth and to defeat out-groups. Cross cultural idea transfer is best accomplished with a strong filter, which war and trade both provide. You want to adopt ideas that are so good that you ignore their origin because the practice or idea is irrefutably better than what you have now.

>> No.11891444

>>11890972
It’s conditional probability anon

If P(biogenesis | purely random processes) approaches zero as you say, while P(biogenesis | some mechanism we don’t yet understand) > 0, and we know P(biogenesis) = 1, then P(some mechanism we don’t yet understand) > P(purely random processes).

Your autistic insistence on the explanation that validates your preexisting bias and refusal to admit you’re wrong despite the evidence showing it’s probabilistically impossible is quite unscientific

>> No.11891445

>>11890591
The argument "in the past people thought technology was impossible but it was built, so it will happen now as well" is not a real argument and ignores the reality of the objective increase in the complexity and difficulty of open problems.
As low hanging fruit and easire problems are solved, the only ones left become more and more difficult. There exists a point where all the problems that need to be solved are so vastly complex and difficult that they are unsolvable in practical reality. At that point, no further advancement can happen, regardless of effort.

We are rapidly approaching that point. And my "opinion" is the actual high IQ opinion, your BS "things were solved in the past so they will be again!" fallacious argument ignores the increase in difficulty solving more and more complex problems.

>> No.11891459

>>11891411
Absolute brainlet take.

The availability of resources in the universe is potentially infinite. On an interstellar scale, assuming both species have mastered interstellar travel, there is no special resource a species could have that couldn't be obtained anywhere else.
Water, minerals, energy, and so on, are extremely plentiful in the Galaxy. The typical scifi trope of aliens travelling countless light years to take our water is beyond stupid.

The only resources that could be theoretically contentious are things like neutronium which presumably could be harvested from quasars, or some other rare element we haven't discovered yet, but most of the resources we know of are plentiful in the Galaxy or could be manufactued artificially.

The most likely reason for conflict between two alien civilizations would be a particular religious, ethical or cultural quirk rather than competition for land or resources as it happened between different civilizations on Earth.

Even planets would not be a point of contention, any civilization advanced enough would be more interested in living in space habitats rather than planets.

>> No.11891472

>>11889134
Not the moron with Dark Forest Theory again....ugh
Earth is visible since life began through its atmosphere, we are visible through altering atmosphere, roads and city lights.
Advanced telescopes that we already design can detect other life and civilizatoons. You can't hide in space.

>> No.11891475

>>11889214
>Then some earthlings have the bad manners to start broadcasting low power radio to the whole universe. Not much later, you start seeing more powerful transmissions.
EARTH HAS BEEN TRANSMITTING OUR PRESENCE SINCE EAONS MORON.
Seriously, stop with Dark Forest Stupidity. It is embarassing.

>> No.11891489

>>11891459
>quasars
Meant to type pulsars, or more accurately, neutron stars, I'm tired sry.

>> No.11891555

>>11887853
They've monitored our tweets and are too embarassed to be seen with us.

>> No.11891609

>>11888023
This. Space is really, really huge and we generally don't begin to grasp the distances involved.

>> No.11891646

>>11888071
The Tyranids ate everything else.

>> No.11891669
File: 523 KB, 720x540, 1593711234457.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
11891669

>>11891475
You seem to be upset.

>> No.11891688

Given the expected lifetime of the entire universe and that fact we've appeared so early on isn't it simply possible we are the first intelligent life that's existed. Are we basically the Vorlons?

>> No.11891710

>>11891459
I didnt presume that water or some exotic Avatar mineral is what the conflict would be over. It's just as likely it would be the implied threat of a foreign species being close enough to interact with.

In the end, over a long enough timeline, it will always end up being one species conquering and destroying the other. Especially if said species do not have a static culture or society or even a uniform society.

If aliens had factions within their society, one will inevitably seek to ally with outsiders against their own to gain control. You cannot assume that these other civilizations have built a utopia and even that would not remain static.

>> No.11891712

>>11889134
>imperial propaganda
Your brain’s a dark forest anon

>> No.11891729

>>11891459
Those at the top live in luxury. Whatever that means in those civilizations probably provides justification for any war just like in this world. Can you imagine the propaganda? What is the 'murica for intergalactic dominance. Is it the leftist shill war for individual expression? Do bugmen merely push buttons that supercomputers have since determined to be the best to push?

>> No.11891779

>>11891712
Your neck is a dark forest anon, but I love you anyway. You are what you are

>> No.11891825 [DELETED] 

>>11891710
>I didnt presume that water or some exotic Avatar mineral is what the conflict would be over.
You are backpedalling. You claimed resources would be scarce making war inevitable. The reality is that on any foreseeable timescale resources are limitless. The universe would have to become extremely crowded by billions of different species tightly packed over a small portion of space for resource competition to be a thing.

>It's just as likely it would be the implied threat of a foreign species being close enough to interact with.
So, like I said, a cultural quirk. In this case, xenophobia.

>In the end, over a long enough timeline, it will always end up being one species conquering and destroying the other.
How so? Why do you assume war is the only possible outcome resulting from the interaction between two alien civilizations? It's one of many possible outcomes.

>If aliens had factions within their society, one will inevitably seek to ally with outsiders against their own to gain control.
Why do you assume this?
A helluva lot of assumptions on your part.

Maybe they are organized as a peaceful confederacy or a democracy is even more perfect than ours, and factions alternate or share power in an orderly fashion. If some countries of Earth can do it I cannot imagine why aliens couldn't. Going back to the extreme example of the Moriori this was a Human culture that had NO warfare at all.

All of this assuming, of course, they have factions at all. They could also be a hive mind, they could all be connected by a computer network, etc, etc.

>You cannot assume that these other civilizations have built a utopia and even that would not remain static.
I literally said on multiple posts that there are many possible outcomes from contact between two alien species. You are the one making assumptions.

>> No.11891831

>>11891710
>I didnt presume that water or some exotic Avatar mineral is what the conflict would be over.
You are backpedalling. You claimed resources would be scarce making war inevitable. The reality is that on any foreseeable timescale resources are limitless. The universe would have to become extremely crowded by billions of different species tightly packed over a small portion of space for resource competition to be a thing.

>It's just as likely it would be the implied threat of a foreign species being close enough to interact with.
So, like I said, a cultural quirk. In this case, xenophobia.

>In the end, over a long enough timeline, it will always end up being one species conquering and destroying the other.
How so? Why do you assume war is the only possible outcome resulting from the interaction between two alien civilizations? It's one of many possible outcomes.

>If aliens had factions within their society, one will inevitably seek to ally with outsiders against their own to gain control.
Why do you assume this?
A helluva lot of assumptions on your part.

Maybe they are organized as a peaceful confederacy or as a democracy that is even better than ours, and on which factions alternate in power or share power in an orderly fashion. If some countries of Earth can do it I cannot imagine why aliens couldn't. Going back to the extreme example of the Moriori this was a Human culture that had NO warfare at all.

All of this assuming, of course, they have factions at all. They could also be a hive mind, they could all be connected by a computer network, etc, etc.

>You cannot assume that these other civilizations have built a utopia and even that would not remain static.
I literally said on multiple posts that there are many possible outcomes from contact between two alien species. You are the one making assumptions.

>> No.11891834

>>11891475

> SINCE EAONS

Not even remotely close, on a cosmological time scale.

In any case, it just means that we're fucked since we already gave ourselves away. Just a matter of time now

>> No.11891854

>>11887853
There are 2 non retarded reasons for that
>light is actually fucking slow for how big space is
>artificial signals are really fucking weak compared to natural ones

>> No.11891873

>>11889134
Lol China.

>> No.11891897

>>11891430
War and trade have always led to stagnation, because you put all the resources you have into destroying each other.

>> No.11891925

>>11887853
Maybe we're in the init() sequence.

>> No.11892057

>>11887853
We're standing on top of the HIGHEST coconut tree on the island with our longest hand held viewing scope and can see no signs of other islands nor the fishing outriggers other people would surely send out.

>> No.11892073

>>11889134
Wait, why wouldn't you band together and find your way out of the forest?
Is that why chingalings fought continuous civil wars for thousands of years, they never figured out cooperating with people that aren't your immediate family?

>> No.11892416

>>11891444
>>11890965
You must actually be joking

>> No.11892829

>>11891834
>Not even remotely close, on a cosmological time scale.

You don't get it do you?
Earth is perfectly visible through advanced telescopes. You can detect biosphere, continents, changes in vegetation. Life was visible since it begun. Dark Forest Theory is just ignorance, because you can't really hide in universe.

>> No.11892910

>>11892829
What bothers me about dark forest theory is the 'snuffing out' part. The theory assumes that civilizations that are making themselves known get deleted by predators or other hiding civilizations. But why would that deletion not make additional noise? At least in some cases, civilizations that were discovered might put up enough resistance to make even more noise. Or, if they're getting silenced by another 'child', it's not a given they'd lose.
The theory only makes sense if childs never attack each other and if all predators are advanced enough to instantly remove childs from existence and go back into hiding themselves before another predator shows up. But what if two predators meet? Would there not be constant fighting among predators? Would it not make sense to be as loud as possible because in theory, predators would not dare to attack you because they fear an even bigger predator showing up?
Idk, it makes sense at first glance but thought through it doesn't make any sense at all.

>> No.11892912

>>11887853
I'm here bro

>> No.11892956

>>11889188
Until we do

>> No.11892976

>>11889579
>why would it not happen elsewhere?
Abiogenesis needs to precede that don't forget.

>> No.11893172

>>11891134
Capitalism has been the dominant economic mode for 1% of human history. Why do you think it will persist? (Genuinely asking)

>> No.11893292

>>11892910
By the end of third book even the author quietly withdraws from the theory. There are merchant "hub" planets, and much later all races start to cooperate.

>> No.11893310
File: 105 KB, 1200x800, World_population_living_in_extreme_poverty_-_Our_World_in_Data_-_2015.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
11893310

>>11893172
I'm not the guy you replied to, but capitalism has existed since 1750, and it has led to an explosion of economic growth, technological development and improvement of living standards like no other system. Communism and command economies do not work as an alternative because they discourage competition and thus innovation (Soviets lost the CW because they couldn't keep up with Western tech, in particular computers), the Soviet system also promotes nepotism, shortages, breadlines, etc. as the market system is not allowed to function and price signals disappear. So, with current technology, capitalism is by far the best mode of social organization mankind has come up with.

All that being said, it is possible, that in the far off future, as technology and automatization continues to advance, the cost of production of goods will drop to near zero, and we will move to a post-scarcity Star Trek utopia, with an economy on which everyone on Earth has its basic needs guaranteed, and people work only on a voluntary basis for the sake of it rather than to survive, similar to how the "Libre Software" industry (Linux, Firefox, etc.) works, where there is already something closer to a post-scarcity situation (copying a program to your hard drive costs ~0).

That still wouldn't be communism though. You would have a market, and competition, possibly wages and prices as well, depending on how low costs go, I would argue it would be a more advanced form of capitalism. I don't see markets ever going away since it's the most efficient way to allocate resources.

>> No.11893401

>>11893172
This
>>11893310

And I believe that capitalism is kind of our default mode of operation. Engaging in trade and cooperation always pose less risk and better reward than violence. Some humans tend to be violent and don't fit into that but in general I do think we function that way.

>> No.11894068

>>11893310
Thanks for the reply. I didn't mention communism. But since you brought it up, what do you think communism is?

>> No.11894544

>>11894068
I'm a different anon. For the most part, I think that Communism is a tool to establish dictatorships by preying on peoples innate want to share and care for other people. Regardless of it's intended purpose, the end is the establishment of something that is worse than a Monarchy.

>> No.11896444

>>11887853
Universe big

>> No.11896855

>>11887853
why can't you see all the people walking around in London op? hypothesis: they must not exist.

>> No.11896859

>>11893310
Could a market really function in such a world? If there is no cost to make something, wouldn't competition bring the price down to 0, meaning investment yeilds no returns?

>> No.11896999

>>11896859
If costs came down *close to* zero (absolute zero cost is impossible), I imagine it would be a 'market' only in the most abstract sense, competition would be for prestige rather than profit. Similar to how different Linux distributions 'compete' over which one is the best, each one with their own userbase and community. Consumer goods would be provided free, or perhaps in exchange of a symbolic donation to the foundation producing them.

That said, this is an utopian view of the future, it's also possible that big businesses would enforce artificial scarcity to keep capitalism going, again software (an industry that is closer to post-scarcity) is a good example, propietary software enforcing copyright and patents creates an artificial form of scarcity.

>> No.11897112

>>11887853
There are no words in any human language that can describe the vastness and size of the universe.

>> No.11897410

>>11897112
umm sweetie, lightyears exist

>> No.11897508

>>11893292
The books take a hard dive into the toilet after the first one. They're fun scifi but have no literary value.

The Dark Forest is really just an explanation for why Chinese people act like they do. Their cultural perspective is that of the dark forest. I have enjoyed talking about it but it's really just asking the question"what if aliens were chinese?"

>> No.11897517

>>11892910
I can answer that: that is exactly what happens. Highly advanced civilizations have such ferocious battles that they damage spacetime when they inevitably meet and come into conflict. It's the whole reason lower civilizations who dont have the power to rip the universe apart hide from view or get erased early on. The truly powerful and beligerant civilizations have a tendency to wreck everything when they come into contact.

>> No.11897520

>>11897517
You are pushing the boundaries of what constitutes an advanced civilization so hard in order to defend your meme book that you might as well call it God at that point.

>> No.11897521

>>11892073
Yes. It is assumed that there can be no cooperation between outsiders, there can only ever be an uneasy peace where one group eventually gets the upper hand and destroys or overthrows the other.

>> No.11897526

>>11888888

>> No.11897539

>>11891873
It's worth a read just to get into the head of a particular kind of educated and literary asiatic mind.

Like "The Buddah Tree" is for Japanese.

You can learn a lot about a culture just from the imagination of a writer. Not empirical truths but cultural perspectives.

Take a 1970s-1990s American SciFi writer. John Varley or Peter Hamilton or John Updike can give you a view of where Scientism and POZ opens up the minds vistas and what it wishes to be true. Ian Motherfucking Banks and Frank Herbert were much more sophisticated individuals and are huge outliers from the norm

>> No.11897550

>>11891831
You're here asking dumb questions and participating in a retarded thread same as me. The obvious answer is that space is huge and we cant watch the entire universe for signs of life, and haven't even been looking for 500 years. The whole point of a thread like this is to speculate and have fun.

You're a cunt. We are arguing over the premise of a Chinese scifi novel. You seem to have a real aversion to the idea that xenophobia is a positive social or biological strategy. Why is that?

>> No.11897563

>>11887853
>Where is everybody? Why does the universe, at a glance, seem lifeless?

Life is very rare. Alternatively, intellligent life is very rare.

We are likely alone in this Hubble volume.

>> No.11897588

Lotta ayylien shills in this thread.
Maybe focus on doing you gay ayylien probing or whatever it is you greenfags do.
Humans = based
Ayyliens = pathetic

>> No.11897629

>>11897550
>The whole point of a thread like this is to speculate and have fun.
Yeah, and I'm having fun.

>You're a cunt. We are arguing over the premise of a Chinese scifi novel.
No, you've been pushing your Chinese novel since the thread begun as if it was an absolute empirical truth. It's a meme book with no basis in reality and of no scientific worth whatsoever. Certainly it's fun to think about but not something you'd want to base your worldview around.

>You seem to have a real aversion to the idea that xenophobia is a positive social or biological strategy. Why is that?
Not really, I'm not against the idea. I'm against the previous idea you were pushing, that xenophobia and war would be the ONLY logical outcome of two species meeting, I'm glad you've now conceded that is one of many possibilities.

>> No.11897647

>>11897550
Looking at species of ant, the most successful ones are the ones where different colonies cooperate with each other rather than the more territorial ones.

>> No.11898227

>>11893310
>Communism and command economies do not work as an alternative because they discourage competition and thus innovation
One of the most successful countries on the planet, Singapore, uses a mix of free market and command economy.

>> No.11898230

>>11887853
Probably is.

>> No.11898236

>>11891459
>The availability of resources in the universe is potentially infinite. On an interstellar scale, assuming both species have mastered interstellar travel, there is no special resource a species could have that couldn't be obtained anywhere else.
Water, minerals, energy, and so on, are extremely plentiful in the Galaxy

Actually they are two that might be rare if multicellular life idms rare:biospheres and culture.
It could mean advanced cultures would leave us alone and study in secret or from distance because we are more valuable developing on our own.

>> No.11898413

>>11887853
It would take just over 1 hour and 45 minutes to go across the galaxy going 1 AU/µs. Thats approximately just under 500 million c, and just over 300 million billion mph (93 thousand mi/ns). At that speed you could travel from here to alpha centauri in around 250 ms. You will travel through virtually empty space and encounter material at a rate of anywhere from 1 g∕s to 751 kg∕s at ultracold temperatures. And you wouldn't see anything at all: the universe would be completely black while traveling, because all light has been blueshifted way into gamma ray territory.
I have nothing to add I just thought this was interesting.