/sci/ - Science & Math

[Anonymous No.11512731]

its over

[Anonymous No.11512742]

>>11512731
uh a lot of people who had it don't get tested because their symptoms are mild or nonexistent

[Anonymous No.11512761]

Ya know I think on /sci/ at least we should start screening OPs before they make threads to make sure they've at least taken an undergrad course in the topic.

Statistics was clearly not your strong suit. And to what do refer to as "it"

[Anonymous No.11512767]

>>11512742
pol says if you get it you die

[Anonymous No.11512769]

>>11512731
OP never responds. Confirmed b8 thread

[Anonymous No.11512794]

>>11512731
Yes, my most conservative estimate of mortality puts it around 5%. Everyone is in denial. Also, the story has not broke yet, but ventilators are not effective. Almost all patients put on a vent die, only after weeks of draining resources and spreading the virus. Medically, the only chance to fight this thing is 1) prevention of infection, and 2) preventing people from needing a vent by any means necessary. After that, we really should be offering comfort care and letting them die quick. Also, at our local ICU, where there are 15 patients with Civid vegetating on vents sure to die, one is an otherwise healthy girl in her mid 20s. I don't think people are hiding the truth. It is just rudimentary denial.

[Anonymous No.11512795]

>>11512767
I've been to /pol/ and they said it's a nothingburger.

[Anonymous No.11512796]

>pol says

[Anonymous No.11512804]

>>11512742
We like to believe that, but my experience has show that everyone is obsessed with being tested or covid. A lot of the numbers are using numbers relevant to influenza, where I is true most do not get tested. I'd say around 50% of people with covid have been tested. I am being conservative. The first thought on almost everyone when they have any symptoms is, "where/how do I get tested." Socially, we are not acting even remotely close to influenza, so we should not use reporting rates there to compare. I predict an easy million deaths in the US.

[Anonymous No.11512808]

>>11512731
>I don’t understand statistics or epidemiology

People die from the disease much quicker than people recover from the disease, so *any* large increase in cases will be quickly proceeded by an increase in deaths, while the recoveries proceed a week or two later. “Verified” cases are also dwarfed by an amount of unverified symptomless or mild cases which are not included in the statistics, and more than 50% of deaths are people who are old as fuck and/or have pre-existing conditions. The median age of the dead in Italy is 80.3, an age higher than the average life expectancy in America.

You worry over what amounts to a mild irritation to mankind.

[Anonymous No.11512809]

>>11512731
Please write your local papers and ask them to investigate the mortality rate of Covid patients put on ventilators. Specifically, make sure they ask how many people have recovered after being put on a vent. The answer will shock everyone. Please help an actual truth come to light. The public need actual facts in order to properly manage this thing. We are at a critical point.

[Anonymous No.11512814]

>>11512794
>Yes, my most conservative estimate of mortality puts it around 5%.

You’re retarded. It’s 0.2% for *verified* cases of people younger than forty. Including unverified cases, which are potentially more than twice the verified cases, it’s even lower. You’re more likely to get killed by the flu quite literally.

[Anonymous No.11512823]

>>11512814
Again, ask yourself why you think that. Do you have any first hand knowledge of what is unfolding? Do you have an incentive to believe what you are believing? Genuinely ask yourself that. What intelligent person clings to their preconceived notions so rigidly?

[Anonymous No.11512829]

>>11512823
>Again, ask yourself why you think that.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

I know how to read, that’s why.

[Anonymous No.11512833]

>>11512814
Also, because of my first hand knowledge of what is happening in the ICU, I have it right now. It is not a threat to me at all. But this thing, and how we are handling it, is a threat our society. Being in denial will not help anything.

[Anonymous No.11512837]

>>11512808
the death rate only goes up. Last week it was 15%

[Anonymous No.11512844]

>>11512833
>Old parasites dying is a threat to our society

Hmmmmmmm nah.

[Anonymous No.11512846]

>>11512767
>pol says if you get it you die
Because they're retarded. Maybe you should stop browsing /pol/ is you're so easily taken advantage of and scared.
You could also try going and seeing a therapist about your health anxiety like I already suggested.

[Anonymous No.11512853]

>>11512829
I said first hand knowledge, my friend. You are too apt to blindly trust others to do your research for you. It's like believing a conclusion of a peer-reviewed scientific paper evaluate t is published--no scientist actually believes a paper because of that....even half of those are fatally flawed. But talking to you is like talking to an anti-vaccine person. There will be a minimum of a million deaths in the US. Our economy is now under strain unmatched since the Great Depression and we are no where close to feeling the weight of this thing. It is going to go on at this level for at minimum 2-3 months, and it will likely peak at about 5 times the current level. You will know someone who will die from this, more likely than not--if that helps your mind grasp the severity of this.

[Anonymous No.11512859]

>>11512837
>the death rate only goes up.

No it doesn’t. Deaths increase quickly when verified cases increase quickly because deaths occur before recoveries occur, causing an illusionary inflation in the “rate of death” for closed cases which is later negated as people recover from their initial infection 2-6 weeks earlier.

[Anonymous No.11512868]

>>11512853
>LARPing

[Anonymous No.11512870]

>>11512829
Also, in our local ICU is a girl in her mid 20s who has been on a vent for two weeks. She is not overweight, does not smoke, and has no know prior conditions. How many others like her are clinging on but not yet part of the stats? Also, I'd direct you to look at the anomalous mortality rate for younger health care workers that can not be explained by any present model or published data set. Inform yourself to lean truth, but to support what you want to believe, my friend. And if you don't care, please stop spreading the denialist lie that has already caused the US to have the most Covid patients in the world.

[Anonymous No.11512875]

>>11512868
No my fiend. I decided today and today only I would attempt to spread the truth about this thing. Fighting against preset humans is draining as hell, so I'm only doing it today. For my own conscience. I'm telling you, write your local papers an ask them to investigate one simple thing: how many people have recovered from covid after being put on a vent. Just ask. The answer is going to shock the world.

[Anonymous No.11512876]

>>11512870
>How many others like her are clinging on but not yet part of the stats?

0.9% of deaths have no pre-existing conditions, counting all age-groups, so very few. LARP harder.

[Anonymous No.11512883]

Reminder that countries are rationing tests and only giving them to either the rich and powerful or the severely ill. The case numbers are becoming increasingly inaccurate by the day.

[Anonymous No.11512885]

>>11512875
>LARPing even harder

[Anonymous No.11512921]

>>11512876
What motive would I have? Basement dwellers so autistic'ly assured they alone are genius enough to know the truth o what is unraveling, are probably one of the biggest threats right now, spreading your BS. You are not a published scientist, nor a healthcare worker on the front-line, yet somehow you know all the facts because of your internet researching. Why do you think this? Are you oblivious to the consequences on not only our local but the global economy? Are you oblivious to how inter-dependent we all are?

[Anonymous No.11512969]

>>11512769
No, OP is already dancing with Corona-chan in purgatory.

[Anonymous No.11512988]

>>11512767
>pol says [thing they didn’t say]
I’ve seen this episode already

[Anonymous No.11513050]

>>11512988
they literally say it causes permanent lung damage because its a weapon made by jews in a laboratory to crash the economy and bring on the new world order. Why are they telling people to stay in over a cold?

[Anonymous No.11513253]

>>11513050
>they literally say it causes permanent lung damage
This is true...in very severe cases and it's the pneumonia that's doing it. Pneumonia always has a chance of causing temporary or permanent damage to the lungs.
>its a weapon made by jews in a laboratory to crash the economy and bring on the new world order
This should probably be enough to make you disregard anything else /pol/ has to say. That's the
>Why are they telling people to stay in over a cold?
This might come as a shock but there's actually a place on the spectrum between "just a cold/flu" and "END OF THE WORLD OMG SUPERBUG AAAAAAAAAA"

[Anonymous No.11513318]

>>11513253
coronaviruses aren't even the same phylum as flu is

[Anonymous No.11514824]

>>11512809
Coronavirus patients in UK intensive care have 50% survival rate
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/mar/28/coronavirus-intensive-care-uk-patients-50-per-cent-survival-rate

[Anonymous No.11515096]

>>11514824
They're already in intensive care. That's the definition of selection bias. Yes, the people who are sick to the point of needing life support are more likely to die. Great fucking discovery.

[Anonymous No.11515105]

>>11514824
>People who require intensive care are more likely to die than people who don’t require intensive care

Holy shit big brain

[Anonymous No.11515108]

>>11513318
Technically that is correct, since viruses do not get classified into any phylum.

[Anonymous No.11515111]

>>11512767
/pol/ says a lot of things

[Anonymous No.11515114]

>>11515108
Wrong. Viruses are classified in the phylum viricota. They have species, genus, etc.

[Anonymous No.11515141]

>>11515105
>>11515096
You are fucking brainlets. Unbelievable.

[Anonymous No.11515162]

>>11512921
>>11512870
>>11512875
>>11512853
>>11512823
>>11512794
>Also, in our local ICU is a girl in her mid 20s who has been on a vent for two weeks. She is not overweight, does not smoke, and has no know prior conditions.

[Anonymous No.11515175]

>>11512814
My whole family is doctors and nurses, kindly go kys before you become a vector.

[Anonymous No.11515178]

>>11515141
I'm a brainlet because I think that looking at specifically the small proportion of symptomatic people who require life support isn't a great way to gauge the overall mortality of a disease?

[Anonymous No.11515189]

>>11515175
Considering it's purging the elderly, what's wrong with being a vector?

[Anonymous No.11515192]

>>11515178
He thinks you're a brainlet because you're using your brain instead of mindlessly buying into the hysteria. Ironic.

[Anonymous No.11515276]

>>11515162
>>11514824
>NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO STOP RUINING MY EPIN DOOMSDAY LARP NARRATIVE AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
Just do everyone a favor. Get it over with and kill yourself. You aren't going to have some magical solution come from the sky and finally kill you. Either you grow some balls and do it yourself or you suffer for the next 30+ years.

[Anonymous No.11515289]

>>11515276
Did you reply to the wrong person or something? I have very little to worry about since I am young and the young people who need ICU intervention are outliers.

[Anonymous No.11515295]

>>11515289
Oh woops, yeah. The second quote was meant for >>11515141

[Anonymous No.11515303]

>>11515295
I am referring to the first quote: >>11515162 (You)

[Anonymous No.11515307]

>>11515303
Sorry, first quote.

[Anonymous No.11515331]

>>11515178
I know you are a brainlet because you didn't get his point and have shit reading comprehension, then acted like he argued for something else.

>>11515295
If that reply was meant for me, thank for outing yourself. Absolute cringe btw.

[Anonymous No.11515509]

What is the data on the mortality rate on that one princess cruise ship? The ship was kept from docking or something like that until they figured out what to do. Wasn't everyone on that boat tested? Even though it isn't necessarily a representative sample of the effect of COVID-19, it should give us a pretty good picture as to what the true mortality rate is. The cases on that boat probably should have come to a conclusion by now so we should know who all died and who recovered.

[Anonymous No.11515561]

>>11515509
There is an article on nature dot com that shares some data. Can't post the link because the system thinks that it is spam.

This article says that there was a case mortality rate of 1.1% and that 18% of cases reported no symptoms whatsoever. Asymptomatic, mild and moderate cases are under-reported in numbers published by the government, inflating the mortality rate.

I don't know for sure, but I think that cruise ship populations tend to be skewed to older ages as well, which could mean that the true case mortality rate could be even lower than the 1.1% estimate. While a 1.1% mortality rate for COVID-19 may not seem very high, what is also worrisome is how quickly it spreads. The seasonal flu is estimated to have a mortality rate of 0.1%. Therefore, combined with how quickly COVID-19 spreads, we could see the number of deaths from this disease to be anywhere from 20x to maybe 200x that of the seasonal flu.

[Anonymous No.11515566]

Have to keep in mind that a lot of people are still in the RECOVERING stage

[Anonymous No.11515569]

>>11512767
pol is mentally handicapped, as their savior

[Anonymous No.11515584]

>>11515561
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-outbreak-diamond-princess-cruise-ship-death-rate

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/24/us/diamond-princess-cruise-ship-asymptomatic-tests/index.html

The tests on the Diamond Princess were conducted on Feb 20. A little more than a month ago, so I think the cases on there should have reached reached a conclusion, but I don't know for sure.

[Anonymous No.11515748]

>>11515178
The question was "Will you survive if they put you on a ventilator?" and the answer is "You are fucked." Half the people die. Half the people suffer for weeks and survive with wrecked lungs. You might need oxygen for the rest of your life.

[Anonymous No.11515764]

>>11515748
>>The question was "Will you survive if they put you on a ventilator?"
The real question is whether that question has much significance.

[Anonymous No.11515946]

>>11515748
What the fuck happen here?

[Anonymous No.11515961]

>>11515748
I mean sure. That's a large concern, especially for populations who might be vulnerable to this sort of thing and are more likely to need a ventilator. The next question is the proportion of people whom become symptomatic who get to the stage of requiring a ventilator, which appears to be well under 5% of all confirmed cases (and that's a fairly large overestimation for the general population).

So you're talking about a disease were of confirmed cases 95% do not end up requiring a ventilator, and of the 5% who do there is a high end estimate of approximately 50% of those people who die. This would put the symptomatic lethality rate at around 2.5%. That 2.5% estimate is with a very large overestimation for the number of cases requiring a ventilator, and a large skew of the population sampled in that ICU mortality rate towards older people and people with underlying health conditions. This doesn't factor in that the majority of people who contract the disease do not experience any major symptoms which would result in them getting tested. This is a disease which more than likely has a top end for the true general population mortality rate of around 1%. 1% can cause a lot of damage sure, especially for people who have the risk factors which would make them more likely to suffer severe symptoms, but running around like this is the black plague is unproductive and makes you look like a moron.

[Anonymous No.11516078]

>>11515189
Because then my family members have to deal with your fucking stupidity. They've all agreed that they will likely contract it. Even if you're 30 and in good health, working six 12+hr shifts a week during this bullshit drains your immune system. You say it's only killing old people but we're going to lose thousands of healthcare workers by the end of this. I will reiterate, kys you fucking degenerate.

[Anonymous No.11516108]

>>11516078
My parents are staying isolated in their rural home, and I'm not planning on visiting them anytime soon. So given that I'm not going to transmit it to the only boomers I care anything about, what's wrong with being an asymptomatic spreader?

[Anonymous No.11516123]

>>11512742
Anecdotes are not evidence

[Anonymous No.11516136]

>>11516123
Do you really doubt that relatively few people have been tested?

[Anonymous No.11516324]

It went to 19% by the way

[Anonymous No.11516579]

>>11512742
that could be said for literally any disease though

[Anonymous No.11516588]

>>11516108
You see no problem with someone else spreading to your parents?

[Anonymous No.11516605]

>>11512767
Hi, My name is Pol. Im from Cambodia. I am sick and tired of people putting words in my mouth
it
has
to
stop
NOW

[Anonymous No.11516610]

>>11516136
Moving the goal posts.

[Anonymous No.11516612]

>>11512761
second post best bost

[Anonymous No.11516620]

>>11516610
So you admit that a lot of people haven't been tested because their symptoms are mild?

[Anonymous No.11516624]

>>11516588
They're alone at home, who would spread it to them?

[Anonymous No.11516666]

>>11516624
They will have to leave home sometime. The problem is that you may give it to someone who is cared about as much as your parents are.

[Anonymous No.11516670]

>>11516666
They've got food for months.

[Anonymous No.11516863]

>>11516666

[Anonymous No.11516970]

>>11515946
https://www.shutterstock.com/editorial/image-editorial/germany-autobahn-accident-nov-2011-8222586b

[Anonymous No.11518540]

>>11515961
please use actual data and don't make up numbers

[Anonymous No.11518546]

>>11515764
if you or a close relative comes in this situation it's certainly relevant

[Anonymous No.11518855]

>>11518540
What actual data would you suggest people use? The self-selecting infection/hospitalization percentage where only those with very severe symptoms are tested and still the hospitalization rates are under 10% for people under 45? Is there some magical data set which can correct for the fact that it the testing is not comprehensive and there is and will always be a massive unknown quantity of people who have it and will never be tested due to their asymptomatic response/mild symptoms? There's no actual "data" which can answer the questions of real mortality rate. We can look at hospitalization and mortality rates of known infected, but we have essentially no way to know how large the denominator is because there's no way to gauge the percentage of people who get the disease who never get confirmed via testing.

If we use the limited known testing data which is a heavy overestimation because of selection bias, we're looking at around a 1.7% mortality rate (142,000 cases, 2500 deaths) with an average age of death being 74 in the US. (CDC numbers from this morning, this will probably change in a few hours as it always does). We're basically looking at a top end of mortality being 1.7% with hospitalization rates for people under 45 being less than 10% for confirmed cases (with a requirement that you present severe symptoms and were exposed to a confirmed case to even get access to the test in most areas).

[Anonymous No.11518902]

100k-200k deaths is not a good sign this will hurt everyone as a whole.

[Anonymous No.11518918]

>>11516624
Me

[Anonymous No.11519055]

>>11518902
This.

[Anonymous No.11519099]

>>11512767
>reddit comes to pol
>don’t get lab tested cases aren’t representative of all chases
>don’t get most fatalities happen before the 9 day after symptoms onset, probably less if there is a significant number of cases in nursing homes they mostly die after 3 or 4 days
>don‘t understand recovery takes 17-20 days in most cases and isn’t even mandatory to report in all countries
>don’t get the exponential functions