/sci/ - Science & Math

[Anonymous No.11440692]

I thought more aggressive virus would be spreading slower, and aggressive virus would evolve to be less aggressive. But this graphic here says the corona is evolving to be become more aggressive, and the more aggressive version is spreading even faster. How can this be explained?

[Anonymous No.11440803]

Being more aggressive increases a virus's ability to infect, but it usually reduces its host's ability to move around and thus bring the infection to more hosts. In an environment where everybody isolates themselves when they feel sick, a virus has to evolve to be less aggressive in order to survive.

Places like hospitals can lead to more aggressive strains because the virus's ability to spread won't change based on how sick people are. A virus in a quarantine bay doesn't lose anything by turning into an ultra-aggressive strain. Generally, this doesn't happen because such a strain has a small chance of occurring in the small population of a quarantine bay, but if you had an entire walled city of infected people walking around and interacting with each other, it would create an ultra virus.

[Anonymous No.11440844]

>>11440692
I‘ve been wondering. There have been cases of reinfection with the virus in China and in Japan. A person who was sick with the virus recently though should have immunity to it though, thanks to posessing antibodies, that‘s how viruses work.

Were the reinfections caused by the affected first contracting L and then S strain?

[Anonymous No.11441095]

Bump

[Anonymous No.11441448]

>>11440844
>Were the reinfections caused by the affected first contracting L and then S strain?
It's possible, the paper that started this listed a few cases where people were found to have both of them simultaneously.
One was the Chicago patient who had come from Wuhan.

[Anonymous No.11442795]

>>11440844
That's how antibodies ideally work, but ideal is rare in medicine. Take herpes for example. Previous infection with HSV1 or 2 does not make you immune to the other. I can cause infection by the other to be more mild, but infection occurs nevertheless.
Lets say you get infected with a strain of Corona and the antibodies you produce are against the viral caspid proteins (I have no idea if this is the case or not). A new strain, read new mutation, may have an altered AA sequence in that caspid protein, making those antibodies you formed to the first strain unable to bind to the new strain. Thus, you will still be infected, and have to start from square one with your IgM response.

[Anonymous No.11442811]

>>11440692
Anon, what part of "Infections have trailed off as outbreak has spread" aren't you getting?

The more aggressive one is basically being outcompeted globally by the weaker strain because its easier to spot and get stopped. Notice that it was only effective in wuhan where people were coralled together and the city was sealed off into a viral box.

[Anonymous No.11442993]

>>11440844
Not how it works. Look up EBA. See dengue and influenza for common examples.

[Anonymous No.11442998]

>>11440692
Lrn2reed it says the less aggressive version is the one spreading now i.e. likely most of the community transmissions outside of china.

[Anonymous No.11443584]

>>11442998
>>11440803
If this was true, the death rate in other countries hit, like iran, would be drastically lower than china's rate.
But China's rate is roughly the same or BETTER than that of outside areas.

So the new one must be just as deadly in its later phases even if it spreads better.

[Anonymous No.11443708]

>>11442993
EBA?

[Anonymous No.11444971]

The first and sufficient phylogenetic analyses of SARS-CoV-2
https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.08802

[Anonymous No.11445060]

>>11440844
it's possible that the patients never actually fully eliminated the virus and them being deemed "recovered" was a false negative
In which case they aren't being reinfected as such

[Anonymous No.11445287]

>>11440803
Isn't this irrelevant because the incubation period is almost a month.

[Anonymous No.11446479]

>>11443584
>every country is perfectly identical therefore the difference in death rate can simply be attributed to the deadliness of the virus
you outed yourself as a brainlet my friend