2017-nCOV Prediction

[Anonymous No.11349896]

What are the newest numbers?

[Anonymous No.11349902]

>>11349896
>believing those numbers
SHIGGY DIGGY

[Anonymous No.11349931]

>>11349896

[Anonymous No.11350097]

>>11349896
Realtime updates here

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[Anonymous No.11350393]

>>11349931
Except that stupid prediction was over a 2 year lifespan, dumbfuck

[Anonymous No.11350937]

>>11349896
259 people have died and 11,791 infected
it's isn't that fast and stronk frens

[Anonymous No.11351044]

>>11350393
>It's different this time.
What prediction model are you using?

[Anonymous No.11351057]

>>11350937
>11,791 infected
Are you retarded? Is it that you believe in the lies being spread originating in China? Are you being paid by the CCCP?
Like seriously... holy fucking shit. I'm not crazy am I, who saw that fucking WHO thing the other day, "Good thing we have great Chinese scientists on the case" "It's so good to have an open government on the case like China" "The Chinese government has done such a great job of being transparent" "We've never seen a government act so quickly to help the world in a time of an emergency"
this was all in like 5 minutes...also shutting Taiwan out... like it was disgustingly obvious that faggot white cunt was a Chinese shill, no joke. I wonder what they have on him.
Literally everyone knows the Chinese numbers are drastically under reported if you don't, you're either retarded, brainwashed or lying.

[Anonymous No.11351060]

>>11351044
not him.

[Anonymous No.11351069]

>>11351057
Like this was after they had prior knowledge of an outbreak happening, arresting doctors for talking about it and allowed a 40,000 person dinner to happen while it was happening, in fact encouraged it, then after that they continued to arrest doctors trying to discuss it with their colleagues.
very responsive, great caring, country of many winning.

[Anonymous No.11351085]

>>11351060
But that's not a prediction.

[Anonymous No.11351086]

>>11351085
nope, just the reality of the situation

[Anonymous No.11351162]

>>11351086
It is bad, I agree with that. But let's not make the assumption that this line is:

1. An accurate depiction of the infection inside of China.
2. Going to continue on its current trajectory.
3. A good model for predicting future infections outside of China.

1. The average Chinese citizen choose traditional cures before modern medicine. This implies that there are more infections than previously discovered, and that the lethality of the virus is lower than current estimates.

2. This virus is not left unmolested by scientists, doctors, or government action.

3. Countries like Germany, France and the U.S. have well educated populations with access to real medicine. They don't live as densely packed as the Chinese, and they have good hygiene.

This disease will mostly wreck havoc in countries where the average income is below $32 a day.

[Anonymous No.11352727]

>>11350393
>dumbfuck

[Anonymous No.11352738]

>>11349896
>>11350097
so at 2/1/2020 the predicted is 497, the actual is 259.
the rate dropped drasitcally on 1/30/2020 so it was obvious it was gonna fall.

nothing to see here, really. it is an overblown flu.

[Anonymous No.11352741]

>>11352738
This. Stop scaremongering you bored meets.

[Anonymous No.11352767]

it is another "i thought it would be log(y)=x but it turned out to be log(x)=y"

[Anonymous No.11352773]

>>11352738
>259
that's yesterday

[Anonymous No.11352777]

>>11352738
>>11352741
Look at the death-recovery ratio. We may be underestimating how long it takes for the virus to kill you.

[Anonymous No.11352789]

>>11352777
Recovery takes a lot longer than dying.

[Anonymous No.11352792]

>>11352773
Yes, today is 304. Predicted is 733.

Go home.

[Anonymous No.11352797]

>>11352789
The longer recovery takes, the higher chance you have of dying.

[Anonymous No.11354134]

>>11352792
3.6 roentgen

[Anonymous No.11354145]

>>11351057
>>11351069
China still has all reasons to under report since they lose money on travel bans. that didn't stop the US from issuing travel bans, and China was very cross.

[Anonymous No.11354149]

>>11351162
None of those points issue the elephant in the room: that this disease spreads while people are in the incubation period.

[Anonymous No.11355211]

>>11354149
Is there any evidence of this? As far as I know (and I'm a layman) there's only been a few SUSPECTED cases of symptom free spread between individuals.

[Anonymous No.11355305]

>>11354149
>that this disease spreads while people are in the incubation period.

[Anonymous No.11355312]

Why are you people even viewing public numbers?

It has been shown, time and again, that they are bullshit.

>A department director of a designated hospital told the Caijing reporter that there were about 120 fever patients a day in the outpatient clinic of these two days, about 80 of whom had lung infections, but only 5 of them might eventually be admitted to the hospital.

google translate this
http://archive.is/ObawP

[Anonymous No.11355368]

>>11349896
if the old number was n, the newest number is n+1. Kinda weird to be asking about if anyone has created the next number but I guess someone has to. Have they invented 10^501 yet? If not I'd like to claim it.

[Anonymous No.11355416]

>>11355312
Your evidence is anecdotal at best.

[Anonymous No.11355752]

>>11351162
>1. An accurate depiction of the infection inside of China.
True, the real number will be way higher, considering they don't have enough test kits.
2. Going to continue on its current trajectory.
True, it's likely gonna accelerate without effective intervention.
3. A good model for predicting future infections outside of China.
This is true.

[Anonymous No.11355757]

>>11352738
>what is a bottleneck

[Anonymous No.11355762]

>>11355757
A good place to put a cork to stop the liquid inside from coming out.

[Anonymous No.11357686]

>>11355416
>Your evidence is anecdotal at best.
That pic is a picture of a hospital which is 400 km outside of Wuhan. Do you think they can diagnose nCOV 2019?

Let me tell you, that a simple check which lasts for 5 minutes at a doctor is waaaay below what is needed to confirm that the patient has indeed the nCOV 2019 and not some other coronavirus/flu/pneumonia.

So, it's kinda clear. People wait to get in line, give up after a few hours of waiting and then go home.

Also, at an apartment where a sick person lives, the government will weld the entrance shut and people literally CANNOT LEAVE. So all the people in the same apartment may also catch the nCOV but they can never get diagnosed.

If more than two apartments get the nCOV the entire building is sealed off - sick people again CANNOT LEAVE TO GET DIAGNOSED.

If you think I'm making this up, just google: coronavirus weld doors

Also, what would you do if you found out that they weld your appartment door if you are confirmed positive for nCOV? Would you go see a doctor? And basically lock your family in (or maybe out) ?

[Anonymous No.11357787]

>>11357686
>If you think I'm making this up, just google: coronavirus weld doors
>mfw it seems legit
Thanks m8, that shit's hilarious.

...I kinda hope there were some preppers there.

[Anonymous No.11357819]

>>11357686
It would take ten seconds to take those doors off the hinges and just leave anyways. A box cutter can get you through a wall. They certainly didn't weld bars on windows. They would be pictures of that too. You can access the weakest point of the structure in the videos I have seen. That little fucking bolt isn't shit to break.

[Anonymous No.11358191]

>confirmed cases increased by 3k between 31st Jan and 1st Feb
>2,9k the next day
>2,5k yesterday
Is it slowing down? Is the party over already?

[Anonymous No.11358896]

>>11358191
We don't know. People could be dying in lockdown and noby would know. Also
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51362772

[Anonymous No.11358924]

>>11358191
Dump eet.

[Anonymous No.11358927]

>/sci/ swallows the numbers provided by a communist totalitarian state in the middle of tanking their whole economy for an unspecified period of time

Absolute state

[Anonymous No.11358971]

>>11354149
This is a worry.
I am also concerned by the lack of transparency in Communist China, it's hard to know what is really happening in Wuhan with such strict censorship. How do you get a city of 11 million people to just stay indoors in what would seem like (for them) an end of the world scenario?

[Anonymous No.11358972]

>>11349896
>What are the newest numbers?
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51362336
>The death toll has risen to 425, with more than 20,000 confirmed cases.

Seems the figures are well below the model. With no vaccine available I guess this is due to the lockdown - infection rates declining and people dying quietly at home and nobody has registered this yet.

Any news from India yet? I would trust India more for true numbers.

[Anonymous No.11358975]

>>11355368
Sorry anon 10^501 is my number, patent pending.
Better luck next time.

[Anonymous No.11358977]

>>11355211
>>11355305
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30154-9/fulltext
>asymptomatic infection

[Anonymous No.11359002]

>>11358191
Limited test kits available on top of lying autocratic regime.

[Anonymous No.11359082]

>>11358972
>Any news from India yet?

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/kerala-declares-coronavirus-outbreak-as-state-disaster/articleshow/73910377.cms
>Kerala declares coronavirus outbreak as state disaster

No lockdown and high population density could make this rather serious.

[Anonymous No.11359089]

>>11358971
Because unlike Americans, they don't chimp out when their lives are slightly altered. Compare Japan after the tsunami to any American disaster. Chinese, whilst not, Japanese, are similar.

[Anonymous No.11360135]

>>11349896
Are you going to update with the numbers already provided here?
Also log-lin graph, please.

[Anonymous No.11360215]

>>11359089
Slightly altered?
I think being forced to stay inside indefinitely is a big deal.
If there's a pandemic in my neck of the woods, I'm gonna keep on keeping on. Survival of the fittest.

[Anonymous No.11360887]

>believing anything the CCP says

[Anonymous No.11360898]

>>11360887
>Wuhan CDC
>49 days after Dec 1
>brought to you by the same writers who wrote such classics as "we have traced the origin of the novel coronavirus to this wet market in Wuhan" and "trust the government, our BSL4-lab researching offensive biological weapons in Wuhan has nothing to do with this"

[Anonymous No.11361233]

>>11349896
My model (based on bifurcation theory) using these numbers holds up relatively accurately to the current numbers from >>11350097
New numbers to plug in would be nice to get a more accurate spread.

[Anonymous No.11361239]

>>11361233
This but as a graph, left Y axis is total officially infected on that day, right Y axis is total deaths as of that day.