/sci/ - Science & Math

[Anonymous No.11347846]

just how much danger are we in?

[Anonymous No.11347855]

>>11347846
very much danger

[Anonymous No.11347864]

The results of the economy is likely going to be the most impacted.

[Anonymous No.11347871]

>>11347864
>100 million die
>Jewish bankers: "economy most impacted"

[Anonymous No.11347875]

>>11347846
We are at officially 10.000 infected.
I would at least multiply it by 10 for the real number.

100.000 infected and we finally stopped the flights. Lets assume we have about 5k - 15k infected walking around Europe, US, Australia etc

Each person infects 15-25 people.

It takes 2 - 3 weeks for the virus to kick in and you are dead within 3 - 4 weeks if you receive full time care.

You can assume we will enforce serious containment measures when we reach 20k - 100k infected, because that higher then the total hospital capacity of most countries. It will then still take another hundred thousand infected until they make it stop.

You can assume 600k dead per country at least.

I would argue 10% of world population if we do a good job. 30% if we fuck up.

[Anonymous No.11347885]

>>11347875
How are you getting 10 to 30% if the mortality rate is 2%?

[Anonymous No.11347897]

>>11347871
more like people aren't getting as much products as before, which could ruin service jobs and limit food capacity.

[Anonymous No.11347904]

Hard to say, since China's numbers aren't exactly reliable, but if their reaction is anything to go by, it could be the worst epidemic since the Spanish flu, which killed 5% of all mankind in 2 years. Though, unlike that one, 2019-nCoV isn't all that dangerous to young and healthy people.

Still, even if you don't catch it and aren't immunocompromised enough for it to kill you, it wouldn't be insane to secure a few month's worth of non-perishable food for the likely skyrocketing of prices due to failing supply lines and immense pressure on healthcare systems and society in general.

[Anonymous No.11347905]

>>11347885
Because it isn't 2%. We don't have accurate nuembers since the Chinese gov is not classifying the deaths correctly in order to prevent a mass panic.

However we can look at relations between the infection rate, incubation time, new deaths.

In the best case its 10%.

[Anonymous No.11347908]

>>11347905
The Chinese aren't releasing "infection rate, incubation time, new deaths." So how did you get 10%? I don't deny that China is lying though.

[Anonymous No.11347910]

>>11347904
Agree its as bad if not more potent then the Spanish flu. Also we have means of transportation for hundred of thousands of working class Chinese carrying the disease.

Also people die in their 20s and 30s, I think its a rumor that it only affects old people.

[Anonymous No.11347911]

>>11347885
Wasn't mortality rate like 55% and not 2%?

[Anonymous No.11347930]

>>11347908

The death toll of the official numbers are approximately doubling it self every two days.

While the rate of infection is doubling every third day.

At the same time the duration till mortality is between 2-4 weeks.

[Anonymous No.11347948]

>>11347910
As far as I know, it's not about old or young, but whether you have an immune system that's well-equipped to combat it.
Children are more vulnerable because their immune systems are underdeveloped, while the elderly are more vulnerable in general, but you're not completely safe if you're an adult, especially if you're already struggling against other illnesses such as the common cold, flu or AIDS.

[Anonymous No.11347960]

>>11347948
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316

Its not killing children. Also young males affected and dying in their 20s and 30s

[Anonymous No.11347962]

Either the virus is picky or this is a bioweapon

[Anonymous No.11347976]

>>11347846
We need to wait for data from countries that don't have millions in extreme poverty and where there aren't any slums and people shitting in the street. It's not as bad, but it's like looking at how something is killing africans and deciding that's the same rate it's going to kill people in north america... wuhan has bad poverty and toxic living conditions. HHS says the treatment is liquids and humidifier.

[Anonymous No.11347981]

This virus will change the political landscape in Asia. Chinese are fed up with their government, Koreans and Japanese are sick of China which keeps on causing problem and will change the way they vote (chinks will riot).

[Anonymous No.11347983]

>>11347981
Eh no. China is too large and powerful. Only America can keep them in check. Europe eat dogshit as usual.

[Anonymous No.11348005]

>>11347885
My nigga the disease has grown exponentially
You can’t just divide the dead by the infected and multiply by 100 to get the percent of people who die.
The simple answer is we don’t know yet and the experts are pitching 11% last time I looked.

[Anonymous No.11348010]

>>11347885
In terms of dead v recovered that’s pretty much 50/50, but also not that useful since dead people could be folks early in the disease who didn’t seek treatment. And if the disease doesn’t particularly hammer people they may never seek treatment to begin with.

[Anonymous No.11348033]

>>11347846
Also consider that it doesn't really matter what the ratios are. It's like, you aren't very likely to get hit by lightning, and if you decide to stay inside rather than go outside with a metal rod, you're chance is zero. If you're a shitty starving African your chances of dying are high, if you're a healthy, not taking any medications, normally functioning human being, your chances are back to zero... it isn't Ebola, it's a shitty genetically engineered common cold that they were probably using for a sars vaccine. Do you wipe your ass with your hand and then eat? Does your water glow when you shower? Do you fry your food from oil taken from transformers? You will be fine...

[Anonymous No.11348043]

>>11348033
Fine is a relative term, even people who are "recovered" have lungs like swiss cheese and have to take medicine for life, when the infection rate reaches a certain tipping point and hospitals become overburdened even the recovered would start dying, the low mortality rate will become irrelevant when no one has access to medicine.

[Anonymous No.11348048]

>>11348043
Probably in places with poor hygiene, lack of access to medical supplies and a government that doesn't give a fuck about the majority of its population. Even if 10% of the world's population is wiped out, this could be entirely within China, India and Pakistan and not have even made a global changing dent.

[Anonymous No.11348062]

>>11347948
so, will people with stds be more vulnerable?

[Anonymous No.11348104]

>>11348043
Of course it's all relative... but probably to your situation. I stated in an earlier post we have to wait and see what the data is like from places like USA where we don't sleep in garbage and eat dirt chips and millions are in extreme poverty. It is not a wild type virus and I'm not a doctor or anything so I don't know, but I do know some viruses can cause neurological problems in a small group of people, I wonder to what extent that might be true with engineered viruses? I don't know. There was an independent research institute IPAK that looked at the genetic sequencing and found vector technology and sars spike protein, so it's clearly not a wild virus. You're right that there's more than just death, but it's like, some people are just fine and some people aren't. So what's the difference between them? You can't say both are perfectly healthy because one is fine and one isn't but they have the same thing, so there's just something you don't know going on with the "healthy" person right?

[Anonymous No.11348108]

>>11347871
As if /pol/tards give a shit about dead Chinese either

[Anonymous No.11348110]

>>11347976
>it's like looking at how something is killing africans and deciding that's the same rate it's going to kill people in north america
Similar demographics and hygiene habits, though

[Anonymous No.11348111]

>>11347846
>Another virus meme thread

I screenshot every one of these so I can put them into a big collage that I’ll post after it turns out to be nothing.

[Anonymous No.11348116]

>>11348005
>My nigga the disease has grown exponentially

Wrong. The disease’s growth has never been exponential. Look at the charts.

[Anonymous No.11348118]

>>11348110
>slums and people shitting in the street
Yup, sounds like San Francisco

[Anonymous No.11348124]

>>11348108
Environmentalists shouldn't give a shit either but they're not really environmentalists since mentioning population growth is a no-no.

[Anonymous No.11348130]

>>11348124
I hate environmentalists and want them all killed.
If we want coronavirus to stop happening, we need to enact an extermination campaign against bats. Kill them all.
Turn all the forests into lumber camps and strip mines

[Anonymous No.11348132]

>>11347846
It's not a big deal it's just overglorified flu. Yeah it infects a lot of people but who's dying? Last I checked out of the 10k original cases in china with a population of 2 billion (estimating), only 9 people died from it. That's actually pretty low spread and mortality rate all things considered. It's highly likely the deaths were from lack of immune system. So assuming you dont have aids or something you should be fine. You might miss a few days work but some chicken soup and sprite will fix you up in no time. This whole thing is just another scary thing to make the masses paranoid. Its fucking swine flu all over again

[Anonymous No.11348139]

will surgery masks prevent infection and do we wear them now 24/7?

[Anonymous No.11348215]

>>11348108
As if you do.

[Anonymous No.11348220]

>>11348130
>Turn all the forests into lumber camps and strip mines
You'd like that, wouldn't you, (((Christian))).

[Anonymous No.11348225]

>>11347846
I need to know if any of you lads are in London right now.

[Anonymous No.11348226]

>>11347930
Because the rate of infection was higher at the beginning when there were fewer countermeasures. Next conspiracy theory please

[Anonymous No.11348239]

>>11347864
We have gigabit per second internet now and video streaming. You can have people appear at meetings, and even tour facilities digitally now. Travel for work crews (mostly manual labor) can be done over the highways and roads. The only part of the economy that will be impacted is air travel, which was a mistake anyways. The world would be a better place if 99% of airplanes were banned. They pollute and encourage useless travel for the sake of it (muh family, muh meeting). You don't need that. The smartest man who ever lived, Immanuel Kant, never traveled more than 10 miles away from his Königsberg .

Give me ONE good reason why this (pic related) is acceptable

[Anonymous No.11348251]

>>11348225
Yep

[Anonymous No.11348253]

>>11347983
Stfu junior, the grown ups are talking now.

[Anonymous No.11348254]

>>11348220
>You'd like that, wouldn't you, (((Christian))).

Fuck Christianity too

[Anonymous No.11348255]

>>11348253
this

[Anonymous No.11348257]

>>11348215
I do.

[Anonymous No.11348260]

>>11348239
>The smartest man who ever lived, Immanuel Kant, never traveled more than 10 miles away from his Königsberg .

Can’t have been the “smartest man that ever lived” if he never left Konigsberg and was so retarded he thought moral facts existed.
Philosophers are basically useless cretins who look at the world through a keyhole and think they know everything about it.

[Anonymous No.11348262]

>>11348260
>Can’t have been the “smartest man that ever lived” if he never left Konigsberg and was so retarded he thought moral facts existed. Philosophers are basically useless cretins who look at the world through a keyhole and think they know everything about it.

[Anonymous No.11348266]

I'm curious to know why the entire nation of China has not been infected yet - Viral transport is so easy and you can't be 100% blocking the virus? So why doesn't everyone have it yet?

[Anonymous No.11348268]

>>11348260
>Can’t have been the “smartest man that ever lived” if he never left Konigsberg
That's a sign of intelligence, moron.

[Anonymous No.11348272]

>>11348260
https://www.reddit.com

[Anonymous No.11348273]

>>11348268
>It’s a sign of intelligence to waste your life living in one town and never seeing the world

COOOOOOOOOOOPPEEEEEEEE
It’s not even true. Kant travelled to Russia.

[Anonymous No.11348275]

>>11348272
Not an argument.

[Anonymous No.11348276]

>>11348262
Avatar-posting now?

[Anonymous No.11348336]

>>11348266
Have you seen the level of containment? Some guy in Shanghai posted a pic on reddit and it's a ghost town over there. On Chinese New Year as well. Viruses need hosts to survive.

[Anonymous No.11348426]

>>11348336
You can't sterilise every building though.

[Anonymous No.11348515]

>>11348426
My understanding is that the virus, while very contagious, is not that potent (compared to SARS, H1N1 - some people are already recovering or have recovered) so the idea is just to isolate as many people as possible and wait for it to die off.

[Anonymous No.11348520]

Plz die in horro europeans

[Anonymous No.11348527]

>tfw you only leave the house once a week
>tfw you live in the middle of nowhere
>tfw you thought about investing the the stock market but held off

[Anonymous No.11348547]

>>11348527
You should buy as much stock as possible right now.
>>11348515
Apparently it takes only 5-7 days for symptoms to resolve, a lot of the infected persons are likely classified as such solely due to still having positive infection markers.

[Anonymous No.11348633]

>>11348132
Only like 173 died from it since early December, it's definitely an over glorified flu honestly while 145 have recovered from it as well.

[Anonymous No.11348638]

>>11348633
I've also been hearing that even the ones that recovered have suffered permanent organ damage though.

[Anonymous No.11348714]

>>11348062
what do you think einstein.

[Anonymous No.11348718]

>>11348633
It's almost like the virus has an incubation rate and will kill far more soon enough

[Anonymous No.11348727]

>>11348225
I live in a village close to a town, which has a train station that is an hour away from London.

[Anonymous No.11348746]

>>11347875
>We are at officially 10.000 infected.
>I would at least multiply it by 10 for the real number.
>100.000 infected and we finally stopped the flights. Lets assume we have about 5k - 15k infected walking around Europe, US, Australia etc
Okay.
>Each person infects 15-25 people.
R-nought falls between 1.4 to 3.9, so that would be one to four secondary infections, not 20.
>It takes 2 - 3 weeks for the virus to kick in and you are dead within 3 - 4 weeks if you receive full time care.
The incubation time is between four to seven days.
>You can assume we will enforce serious containment measures when we reach 20k - 100k infected, because that higher then the total hospital capacity of most countries. It will then still take another hundred thousand infected until they make it stop.
>You can assume 600k dead per country at least.
>I would argue 10% of world population if we do a good job. 30% if we fuck up.
Where the fuck are you getting these numbers? One would need a seriously cavernous arse to pull out these massive exaggerations from it! I'd be more worried about that if I where you.

[Anonymous No.11348763]

>>11348746
>Where the fuck are you getting these numbers?
Not him, but he's bullshitting and probably a HABBEDINGZ fag. Even the absolute worst case scenario we currently have indicate 14% mortality, and even that report implies the possibility of non-reported cases recovering on their own which could lower the mortality rate as far as 1%.

https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.3.2000044

Because I believe that a pessimist never disappointed, I'm going to assume a 14% mortality rate. We're dealing with something slightly more infective and slightly more severe than SARS, yet we've detected and contained it sooner than SARS. My guess is that the number of dead will in the end be 2-3 times that of SARS (so 2-3 times higher than ~800). But again, I'm being deliberately pessimistic so things can only get better than expected.

[Anonymous No.11348779]

>>11348547
>You should buy as much stock as possible right now.

Why?

[Anonymous No.11348804]

>>11348779
To watch it drop when the economies do

[Anonymous No.11348810]

>>11348804
Buy high, sell low.
That's the /biz/ way.

[Anonymous No.11348836]

>>11347911
No

[Anonymous No.11348837]

>>11348763
This, it's bad but we managed to contain it much quicker than SARS and done more research on it faster too. Plus the amount of people recovering from it is closer to the people who died from it. The current trend is more recoveries than deaths. Also it's mostly contained to a single city so I'm not expecting an out Another epidemic in a different country.

[Anonymous No.11348842]

>>11347948
>Children are more vulnerable because their immune systems are underdeveloped
And yet no children are dead.
>especially if you're already struggling against other illnesses such as the common cold, flu or AIDS
There's no evidence that a cold or flu makes it more deadly, it's typically people with serious, long term illnesses are dying.

[Anonymous No.11348848]

>>11348746
>The incubation time is between four to seven days.
That's the average, but can be as low as 1 day and up to 14 days. That isn't to say this guy isn't overestimating almost every metric. But the one I think he might be right about is the actual number of infected. The Chinese would have absolutely no chance in diagnosing all of those cases, and if the mortality is as low as they say (or lower), there ought to be a lot of cases that recover from this infection just fine in a few days before they get a chance to get the diagnosis. It is possible to diagnose after recovery from antibodies lingering in the blood for years, but when they have recovered they will be downpriotized because there are literally thousands of people that are waiting to get diagnosed. They cannot count the case before they have done the test. I doubt the Chinese will after epidemic is done test for antibodies in people that suspect they had it and recovered just fine at any point.

[Anonymous No.11348911]

>>11348130
t. Saruman

[Anonymous No.11348931]

>>11348215
>implying he ever implied that he cared

[Anonymous No.11348940]

>>11348848
Some estimates have the Chinese detection rate as low as five percent. This paper hasn't been peer reviewed yet as far as I know. But it is consistent with how the Chinese government works. It is also consistent with the assumption that the Chinese people rely on traditional medicine, rather than seeking professional medical care.

[Anonymous No.11348942]

>>11347846
That depends. How good are you at tightrope walking across an active volcano?

[Anonymous No.11349597]

>>11347846
as many people as possible need to catch this disease
china wants their citizens to have immunity to the virus, so that future versions won't impact them

[Anonymous No.11349656]

>>11348130
Fuck you, flying foxes are adorable.

[Anonymous No.11349689]

>>11347846
It's a glorified flu, basically.
No one is in any danger, except people that are in danger of being killed by the normal flu too.
Mortality rate, instead of what some anons might tell you, is dropping every day. At the moment, we're at a bit more deadly than the flu. We started at "a lot more deadly than the flu".

[Anonymous No.11349694]

>>11347846

[Anonymous No.11349700]

Kind of reminds you of Chernobyl doesn't it?

[Anonymous No.11349713]

>>11348254
We should fuck Islam while we're at it

[Anonymous No.11349719]

>>11349689
That what I've been actually hearing lately and not just on the internet either but even people I know of are now saying the same thing, including the fact that it's only deadly to old people and the ones with other viruses. Perhaps it was overblown after all

[Anonymous No.11349724]

>>11347911
>2% mortality? Why isn't China doing more about this new virus with 5% mortality? Why haven't we shut down our borders for this disease with 10% mortality? I can't believe these Chinks let out a virus with 20% mortality. Help! We've been hit with a Chinese bioweapon with 55% mortality!

[Anonymous No.11349725]

>>11347846
none lol

[Anonymous No.11349731]

reminder that during the SARS outbreak, the only people that died outside of china were in canada

[Anonymous No.11349743]

>>11349724
>Chinese bio weapon which only impacts their own population

What level of chess are these guys playing on?

[Anonymous No.11349754]

>>11349731
Nah. There were unreported deaths in the USA too.

[Anonymous No.11349758]

>>11349754
Apparently not enough for anyone to notice all of the people dead from SARS

[Anonymous No.11349772]

If you have rations, sterile water, and shelter, and can defend it from the vibrant and diverse roving gangs of looters, this is your best chance ever to get laid.

[Anonymous No.11349782]

>>11347948
You have it backwards. Your immune system is what destroys your own lungs when reacting to it. People with normal immune systems are at most danger.

[Anonymous No.11349791]

mfw I work in a lab and have access to lifetimes' worth of water purification chemicals, disinfectants, and accelerants at a moment's notice

[Anonymous No.11349800]

>>11349782
Yes and no. Innate immunity is different from acquired immunity and most of the physiological problems of pneumonia and ARDS are related to the former. If you had none of the former you'd probably get something more like a rapidly progressing emphysema until your lungs just stopped working but most immunocompromising conditions either primarily or exclusively affect the latter.

[Anonymous No.11349816]

>>11349689
Of course mortality rate is dropping. You presumably die faster than you recover, so the statistics are skewed by the ongoing epidemic. But considering this mortality rate was at like 50% I'm not breathing or just yet.

[Anonymous No.11349834]

>>11348225
You're telling me there is no case of the coronavirus in London right now? A place with 9 million people? Something's not right here.

[Anonymous No.11349864]

>>11347846
I'm sure we'll be fin

[Anonymous No.11349869]

>>11349743
Pranked by five eyes glows?
>steal Chink killing virus from Canada
>bring it into a transport hub of China
>pranked bro

[Anonymous No.11350078]

>>11349782
I assume you mean from cytokine storms. What makes some healthy people with a disease perfectly fine vs another healthy person with the same disease not fine and dead? There's obviously something wrong with these "healthy" people we don't understand. Everyone has essential functions, you eat food, your stomach breaks it down, your intestines absorb nutrients, you shit and piss. Your heart beats, brain and bacteria sends signals, your immune system detects and destroys antigens. To have a failure in one of these processes is a series of cascading events, you do not simply have a heart attack, you don't simply not absorb nutrients, etc. If your immune system over reacts and can't fail safe like other people and you fucking die because of it, that means you got some shit wrong with you. Just because we don't have conclusive answers doesn't mean there was nothing wrong, and people have undiagnosed problems that can be missed in autopsy. I'm not going to look at a through z I'm just going to say you died of the cold but you seemed healthy so you must have not had any problems. It's like the kid that died on the rollercoaster from an undiagnosed heart problem, someone might seem one way but our life styles have become so unnatural and fucked that there's hardly even a basis for what healthy is anymore. It's like half of people get cancer and everyone is diabetic and autistic as shit. The medical view of healthy has slowly converted to if you have diseases managed by medications then you are healthy. My doc told my sister she is healthy at her last check up despite the fact that she is on multiple medications in her 30s. What the fuck? This is the story the media gets too.

[Anonymous No.11350085]

>>11347875
>You can assume we will enforce serious containment measures when we reach 20k - 100k infected, because that higher then the total hospital capacity of most countries. It will then still take another hundred thousand infected until they make it stop.
The purpose is to limit self reliance and depopulate. Why would they contain it?

[Anonymous No.11350487]

real zombie virus when? do you think it's possible in the decades ahead?

[Anonymous No.11351236]

Apparently, it targets ACE2 receptors, which are more common among certain groups than others.
I'm a layman when it comes to this. Does this mean that it would have a lower R0 and weaker symptoms among those with less ACE2, or would it fuck shit up to the same extent it did in China?