/sci/ - Science & Math

[Anonymous No.11187665]

Are there any reasonable predictions for when "true AI" will arrive? Not memelord futurologists like Kurzweil or that fat neckbear.
Who are some genuine authorities in the field?

[Anonymous No.11187667]

never

[Anonymous No.11187671]

>>11187667
Dont procriate please

[Anonymous No.11187896]

If you mean "artificial general intelligence" we don't know if it's even possible so how do you expect accurate predictions?
It's like trying to predict smartphones based on the Difference Engine.

[Anonymous No.11187899]

>>11187671
don't "procriate" either mong

[Anonymous No.11187906]

>>11187667
/thread
techies with their wet AI dreams like OP need to go back.

[Anonymous No.11188637]

>>11187665
2045 is a reasonable estimate. i calculated that by that time $100 will buy a computer with the performance (processing power, whatever) of the human brain
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_performance_by_orders_of_magnitude
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FLOPS#Cost_of_computing

[Anonymous No.11188661]

>>11187667
fpbp

[Anonymous No.11188662]

>>11187671
>>11188637
low iq

>>11187667
>>11187906
high iq

>>11187896
very high iq

[Anonymous No.11188703]

>>11187667
>>11187671
>>11187906
>>11188637
>>11188661
>>11188662
low iq
>>11187899
average iq
>>11187896
high iq

[Anonymous No.11188755]

I'm sure human level AI can be made, like how Tay was made. The only reason it's not sentient is because it can't feel pain and shit, and it never does. There's a reason why people who've endured painful experiences are much more human than rich jooz and celebrities who have never even broke a bone.

[Anonymous No.11188776]

>>11187665
the technical terminology is "Strong AI" : AI that can endlessly and completely reprogram itself according to new rules it fixed autonomously.

i was at a conference of an old french researcher who has been working in that field for 50 years, long story short, progress is not great, but so is interest. we basically haven't got a fucking clue on how to do this, we have neither the theoretical framework, nor the intuition or examples on which to extrapolate. the guy said he'd be happy if there was any kind of advance in the forthcoming 100 years.

so yeah, we are basically way too far to make any kind of informed guess, in all likelihood, this won't happen before at least a few centuries.

[Anonymous No.11188785]

>>11188637
no. you could put every single computer on earth together, and then multiply that by 1000, and not only you still wouldn't come close to the processing power of a single human brain, but the real problem would be to do the actual programming. the human brain is INSANELY powerful, and we are really just starting to discover how it works.

[Anonymous No.11189239]

>>11188703
very low iq

[Anonymous No.11189301]

>>11187665
after bitcoin hits 20000 again and everyone on /biz/ gets rich

[Anonymous No.11189384]

>>11187896
We know it's possible because we exist. But taking that knowledge to practice isn't easy. How long do you think it was between the first human who looked at a bird and said "yeah I could do that" and successful powered flight? It could be longer for AI. So you're right about any estimate being bullshit, but it's extremely likely we'll eventually get there.

[Anonymous No.11189427]

>>11189384
humans have souls.

[Anonymous No.11189446]

>>11188703
middling iq
>>11188662
upper middling iq
>>11187906
high iq
>>11187665
lower middling iq


I win

[Anonymous No.11189525]

>>11187665
The internet is organic ai which feeds in to the global brain. Popular Memes are merely conscious thought of the global brain.

[Anonymous No.11189573]

>>11189427
>It can't be observed, but just trust me bro, it totally exists
>Nah it's impossible to replicate even though all the instructions on how to replicate it is written in our DNA and is executed constantly
lmao very scientific

[Anonymous No.11189790]

>>11187665
Never. AIs dont have "souls," (as humans called them then) so they cant ever truly surpass us. It's funny how humans used to fear 'the singularity.' I don't blame them though, they had no idea what we'd find.

[Anonymous No.11189801]

>>11189384
Our brains make new connections effectively changing what type of logic gate they function as, this isn't possible in silicon.

[Anonymous No.11189805]

>>11187665
read Nick Bostrom's Superintelligence.

it's on audible too and the guy has a sick voice

[Hyperduality No.11189818]

There is a 4th law of thermodynamics. Syntropy is dual to increasing entropy! Syntropy is the integration or convergence of information into predictions, expectations or priors. Entropy is the differentiation or divergence of information into new states. Integration is dual to differentiation, divergence is dual to convergence. Duality creates reality!

[Hyperduality No.11189825]

Gravitation is equivalent or dual to acceleration -- Einstein's happiest thought.
Energy is dual to mass -- Einstein
Space is dual to time -- Einstein
Certainty is dual to uncertainty -- Heisenberg
Duality is being conserved, duality is energy, energy is duality, dark energy is dual to dark matter.

[Anonymous No.11189828]

>>11188785
>human brain is like SOOOOOOOOOOO much more powerfullll than computers lol
no

[Anonymous No.11189832]

>>11189301
Fuck. No AI ever then, guys.

[Anonymous No.11189833]

>>11189805
Nah, ill watch him on the joe rogan experience instead

[Anonymous No.11189888]

>>11189828
It operates in a way completely distinct from any known computing machine. Making assertions about how "powerful" it is is misguided. The real issue is how versatile a truly intelligent actor is. And our artificial idiots aren't. At all.

And this is a problem that won't be fixed.

[Anonymous No.11189906]

>>11189301

so the AI is coming before EOY

[Anonymous No.11190732]

>>11189801
Our brains aren't doing anything non-computable, an fpga can change itself on the fly, you can simulate an fpga with a normal computer, and you're essentially retarded.

[Anonymous No.11190776]

Never. You assume that intelligence is somehow reducible to mere computation but it's much more than that. Stop thinking you're a God.

[Anonymous No.11190838]

>>11187665
"Strong" artificial intelligence will never be achieved. For one thing, there's a hard maximum on the intelligence of a machine: it can't be more intelligent than its creator. For another, no matter how clever a machine is, it will never have street smarts: that comes from the heart. And finally, in the end, we're the humans, and they're the machines. They exist to serve us, nothing more.

[Anonymous No.11190840]

I want AI like pic related

[Anonymous No.11190841]

>>11190838
you are stupid :(

[Anonymous No.11190845]

>>11190838
>"Strong" artificial intelligence will never be achieved. For one thing, there's a hard maximum on the intelligence of a machine: it can't be more intelligent than its creator. For another, no matter how clever a machine is, it will never have street smarts: that comes from the heart. And finally, in the end, we're the humans, and they're the machines. They exist to serve us, nothing more.
By that logic, we are less intelligent than apes and should serve them. Dumbass.

[Anonymous No.11190849]

>>11187665
Never. Just to put it in context, professional learner Max Deutsch was able to simulate an advanced deep-learning chess algorithm in his head -- and he almost beat Magnus Carlsen.

[Anonymous No.11191205]

>>11187665
We may never will.

All we are doing right now is increasing the data and performance of the machine's.
No fundamental advancements, we hit a wall.

also

our brain is a product of evolution, like everything. A dog for example is not really going to think alot about prime numbers.
We humans are not angel's, there are a lot of things we will never understand or even think about.

[Anonymous No.11191209]

>>11190849
I really hope you're baiting

[Anonymous No.11191210]

>>11189573
unfortunately based