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10820222 No.10820222 [Reply] [Original] [archived.moe]

When are we going to see the first permanently unemployed due to automation?

>> No.10820224

>>10820222
Yeaterday. We already have a caste of manbabies who sit around playing videogames all day

>> No.10820469

>>10820224
But when will mass unemployment become a real problem? After the next big recession?

>> No.10820498

>>10820469
Yes after trump's elections. The economy is going to crash. Bitcoin will zoom. Non-CS majors will cry.

>> No.10820502

>>10820498
LMAO

>> No.10820506

>>10820498
All those years of being bullied on /sci/ will finally pay off.

>> No.10820507

>>10820502
He's right though

>> No.10821763

bump

>> No.10821767

>>10820222
>When are we going to see the first permanently unemployed due to automation?
There has always been permanently unemployed people and today there are less of them then there used to be as people with disabilities that would have meant they could never work can do certain jobs today.

>> No.10821771

>>10820498
Buddy, lightning doesn't strike twice.
The polls were wrong when they predicted Trump's chance of winning, but they were right in predicting the popular vote.
This time around, his approval rating is slightly lower, so I doubt he will get reelected.
(Not that I would be personally affected, I left that shithole way before he took office.)

>> No.10821780

>>10821771
He was much more of an underdog last time. Unless there's a strong democratic candidate running, he'll almost certainly get in again.

>> No.10822506

>>10821767
I mean a permanently increasingly percentage of unemployable people, not the structurally practically always unemployed people even the best doing economies have.

>> No.10822985

>>10821771
Doesn't matter. What will probably happen is that the economy will crash somehow.

>> No.10822992

>>10820222
>permanently unemployed
What does that even mean?
There are already people who become unemployed and stay unemployed for the rest of their life. I have no idea what you're getting at.

>> No.10823025

>>10822506
>I mean a permanently increasingly percentage of unemployable people, not the structurally practically always unemployed people even the best doing economies have.
Unemployment rates are extremely murky and heavily manipulated. A lot of people you wouldn't expect to be excluded from unemployment counts are e.g. you stop counting as part of the unemployed population if you haven't "actively looked for work in the prior 4 weeks."
So laid off workers who get depressed and give up on searching for a few weeks disappear, even if they were aggressively finding and applying to job openings for several months straight before then.

>> No.10823073
File: 489 KB, 550x600, 1508701386304.gif [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
10823073

Way sooner than we can prepare for it.
Actually there is a projection in which around 40 million people in US alone could be laid off in next decade.
Almost billion worldwide.
If you run those numbers past you a few times you might realize this is fucking harrowing.
Those people are not getting new jobs.
There will be no new jobs to give them.
This is not tech revolution that opens new ways to employ people. This is one that does the exact opposite.

>> No.10823154

>>10823073
Is there actually any country preparing for this?

>> No.10823201

>>10823154
nope

>> No.10823333

>>10823073
Mostly useless middle management positions get hit first, so fuck 'em.

>> No.10823354

>>10823073
We are not even at the fun part yet. You have not even begun to describe the broader picture. Americans will have their jobs automated, but broad band the greater porportional unemployment will happen in .... You guessed it the third through second world. Which means, you guessed it, war/strife/revolution as any recourse contraction generally has a negative projection on broad public health and stability.

This would be perhaps manageble in those places if you also didn't tell them, that they might have to move because of sea level rise, or heat waves, and or ask them to purchase a heating unit and then supply that with energy.

Just factoring in those two parts you end up in a shit fest. Now what happens when all this shit splays? Well it's obviously that people whose utility doesn't match robots will look for the cheapest form of energy they can to continue their life styles. Which really must be renewebals and likely a world goverement or we are fucked.

This is even without asking the what if, of chinese economic collapse and or fragmentation. Which would spell such severe stress for the region it would not recover quickly.

Because china is a foundationally built on various minority groups, infighting, and all forms of proxy war bullshit would soon apply.

In that case, besides the 1 billion unemployed, how many others are dead, in disease and war. And here is another fun fact, this creates an immeasurable number of refugees headed north.

Good luck europe. Eastern Europe/Russia have pretty poor demographics, and they could probably take them in in the future. But can western europe/britian accommodate?

Anyways, it's a shitfest that us NA folks will not have to worry about

>> No.10823367

>>10820222
When automated trucks become ubiquitous (and they will since they work longer hours than humans, don't make pit stops, and don't need to be paid as much), that's 1-2 percent of the US population out of a job. It doesn't seem like much, but I'm not sure where they're expected to go.

>> No.10823415

>>10823354
Yeah you have nothing to worry about considering south America

>> No.10823421

>>10823415
We'll make the Panama Canal 10 feet wider!

>> No.10823430

>>10823415
/shrug mexico is an a-okay bottle neck, and desu if you are in canada america acts as the biggest buffer zone in the universe

>> No.10823437

>>10823430
There's gonna be less boomers in the future to vote for racists so chances of the border staying closed are low as the libs will open them.

>> No.10823450

>>10823437
that's true, in the long term. But here is what I pose to you. If we go the UBI route, why in the world would amnerica and canada ever commit to an open border. Especially, if they are forced to swing more left.

>> No.10823458

>>10823450
You can open the border but only give special rights to citizens. Libs like freedom but not privilege.

>> No.10823469

>>10823458
>Libs like freedom but not privilege.
They would definitely not go along with your idea.

>> No.10823499

>>10823458
Then really you get the best of both worlds. The underclass of soceity, attempting to join the city on the hill. Can't say I'd be against it. If done carefully and each non-citizen tagged.

>> No.10823605

>>10820222
Well, the gods & robots will be the first because there will always be some human group vs human group conflict.

>t.first immortal interdimensional/disciplinary meme God for consciousnesses

>> No.10825576

bump

>> No.10825587

>>10820222
Trips checked.

We already have. The job reports routinely cite some number of people who have given up looking for work.

>> No.10825687

>>10820222

I dunno. My family has been impoverished since the 9th century when windmills made grinding grain by hand obsolete.

>> No.10825718

>>10820222
>permanently unemployed
they exist already, its niggers, muslims with 10 kids, and chavs on benefits

>> No.10825741
File: 3.22 MB, 1600x752, deepdream.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
10825741

>>10825687
Grinding grain is a manual labor task. The thing of interest in modern times is the automation of intellectual tasks.
If you just take away manual labor options then sure, you just create more opportunities for new, more thinking based jobs.
If you take away intellectual labor options, there isn't really another domain to escape to. You hear arguments in favor of creative work still being a refuge for humans, but I don't see much reason to believe you need to be made out of meat in order to grok creativity.
I know nobody's impressed anymore by DeepDream after all the dog pictures got spammed to death, but at the time it came out my personal impression was amazement at how much it (more specifically the style, not the subject matter, which again, was at the time a bunch of dogs read into non-dog pictures) reminded me of stereotypical psychedelic compound induced visuals.
And just to head this off because I can already feel this response coming: No, I'm not falling victim to some naïve layman's misunderstanding of how ML works. I'm a software developer, have been for ten years, and while it's not the only sort of subject matter I've covered I have in fact developed instances of ANN and other ML applications (as in actually developed from scratch in C++, not "developed" in the sense of being one of those non-programmer data analysts who loads up a prefab ML application from TensorFlow or [insert Python library here] or wherever the fuck you types get this shit from).
Still impresses me even knowing how it isn't magic and is all ultimately the result of deterministic processes like minimizing an error function through the adjustment of weighted nodes while iterating through a known / labeled training data set. I don't see any evidence at all our own brains are any less ultimately reducible to deterministic processes. If anything, biological brains are more convoluted, which isn't saying much since so are weather phenomena.

>> No.10825756

>>10825741

My grandpa starved to death when we moved from mechanical calculators and trig angles to digital computers.

My great grandpa hasn't painted since the photograph was invented.

Stop pretending this generation is unique.
Marx believed we were in a post scarcity society 150 years ago due to mechanization.

>> No.10825762

>>10825741

>baaawwww diversification and adapting to job markets is for peasants, muh super cerebral do-nothing number cruncher job might be at risk

That's you.

>> No.10825800

>>10825756
>from mechanical calculators and trig angles to digital computers
Either dishonest or misinformed. You know who worked as human computers doing manual calculations before digital computers were created? Unskilled women. So no, that's not an intellectual task.
>hasn't painted since the photograph
0.001% of historical painting was ever photorealistic to begin with.
>Marx believed we were in a post scarcity society 150 years ago due to mechanization.
Which once again, is physical labor, not intellectual labor.
>Stop pretending this generation is unique.
Say it isn't this generation for the sake of argument. Is your belief that NO generation in the future will ever deal with a situation where anything a human can do is a task an artificial application can do a better job at with less expense required?
I could see quibbling about dates (within the lifetime of millennials vs. one thousand years in the future) but I don't see how you could believe there's never any point where humans maintain some ability that an artificial process can't match or greatly exceed.
>>10825762
No, I never expressed any sort of distress about this. I'm just pointing out the differences between tasks like grinding grain vs. what's getting automated in modern times. I mean, I wouldn't want to be unemployed and/or homeless because I can't successfully maintain employment in the future, but in terms of the larger trend I'm not advocating for some Ted Kaczynski overthrow of modern civilization either. I think it's inevitable we'll see machines overtake humans in most any task worth paying someone for today at some point in the future, and I don't think it's anything to get upset about given I don't think you or anyone else can do anything to stop it.

>> No.10825810

>>10825800
>>10825756
>>10825762
Correction:
*I don't see how you could believe there's never any point where humans *no longer* maintain some ability that an artificial process can't match or greatly exceed.

>> No.10826021

>>10823154
Yang is probably the biggest politician who's talking about these issues.

>> No.10826046

>>10825687
This is not the same thing as past technological advancements. This is something that can literally replace everything that humans can do, either physically or mentally. I take screenshots of people like you to laugh at in 30 years time. Well I hope I'll be laughing and not pulling my hair from being frustrated at how stupid people used to be.

>> No.10826119

>>10820222
The cotton gin did that a long time ago.

>> No.10826266

>>10821771
lightning hits the cn tower hundreds of times...

>> No.10826278
File: 18 KB, 800x450, nick-young-confused-face-300x256-nqlyaa.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
10826278

>>10826119
>be abducted from home
>forced into slavery in foreign country
>have job replaced by automation
>be told you've emancipation was act of altruism
>next be told to go back to your own country

>> No.10826487

>>10826046

>it will replace everything guys, I swear

Fucking cope. Chicken littles have ALWAYS declared the sky is falling and the mental midgets have always believed that their world is truly ending this time.

>> No.10826493

>>10825800

By the time we have full automation the rest of society will have gotten wealthy enough to get negative population growth like we have in the west and are already seeing on India, Iran, and Brazil.

>> No.10826496

>>10826021

Trying to.

Homeboy doesn't have the charisma to hold a debate, best he can handle are soft ball interviews with 5 foot tall jews.

>> No.10826556

>>10826496
Why would analog normies who do manual TSP solutions matter to the digital hivemind?

>> No.10827035
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10827035

>>10826487
But have you ever heard the boy who cried wolf? Eventually there were wolves. The point is, it is absolutely clear we are coming against technology we simply can't compete against physically or intellectually. Just because we have had a few false predictions in the past does not take away from the validity of the current claims. The process is literally happening right now and yet you are too foolish to see it.

>> No.10827161

>>10825762
If someone can run a billion copies of a human brain on a server farm, what exactly can you do that they can't?

>> No.10827192

Whats the point of robots making our food, tech, clothes, furniture etc building houses, roads etc. If no one can buy these products because they dont have jobs? Im not worried in the slightest about future unemployment

>> No.10827216

>>10820222
>When are we going to see the first permanently unemployed due to automation?
Never, there are always too many jobs, hence the need for mass migration and infinite growth.

>> No.10827235

>>10827161

Explain my conclusions to an executive and to the people who work for me on what to do next and how.

>> No.10827236

Best case scenario is a post-scarcity future envisaged by Marx - no one will need to work because our economy is so productive at making material goods. Almost every single industry will be nationalised and the products will be distributed to whoever wants them. In a sense, automation will liberate us from having to work.

Worst case (and much more likely) is a dystopian capitalist hellscale ala Elysium.

>> No.10828405

>>10827192
Because the price of goods will drop significantly once you get rid of labour and can work around the clock at maximum efficiency. These things will be so cheap that everything will be provided for us.

>> No.10828408

>>10827216
>Never, there are always too many jobs, hence the need for mass migration and infinite growth.
This is so fucking dumb, it's frustrating. Imagine being on /sci/ and having no idea how advanced AI and robotics will become.

>> No.10828438

>>10823025
That’s just headline unemployment. Plenty of other measures out there freely available but you people and the media are too retarded to look past a wapost headline so you conclude there’s some sort of conspiracy

>> No.10828447

>>10822506
Why would it be impractical for there to be a higher % of unemployed than there is today?

>> No.10828723

>>10828408

>/sci/ claims to understand science and technology of the future and the human response to them
>can't understand how to get a chubby 30 year old to fuck them

Big think.

>> No.10829072
File: 91 KB, 967x800, groundswell-word-bank-report-infographic-sample.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
10829072

>>10823415
Honestly? America has it so easy.

South America has less than half the population of Africa or India. Even in the absolute shitshow that is Venezuela, most citizens have high school level education and know how to live in a modern urban society. Brazil and Mexico (60% of the population in Latin America) are richer and more stable than any nation in Africa. The US has already absorbed 10s of millions of immigrants from Latin America, as both their culture is more compatible, and our culture allows people to integrate; Quite the difference between immigrants from, say, Algeria in France. If worst came to worst, the US and Canada would just have to funnel resources into Mexico and set it up as a bottleneck, instead of making sure a dozen countries from MENA (Libya, Morocco, Turkey, Tunisia, Egypt, etc.) stay stable.

The US will be affected, but relatively speaking it has everything to come out of it mostly unscathed.

>> No.10829146

>>10820222
No
https://timeline.com/robots-have-been-about-to-take-all-the-jobs-for-more-than-200-years-5c9c08a2f41d

>> No.10829230

>>10820224
>playing videogames is bad
die boomer scum
you're an old fuck
>>10820506
sorry but pajeet does it for cheap

>> No.10829346
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10829346

>>10829146
>Airplanes were never invented because people had been talking about flying for more than 2000 years

>> No.10829386

>>10829346

And after kittyhawk all previous methods of transportation became obsolete and led to billions of people's legs withering away from misuse within a generation.

>> No.10829493

>>10829386
Airplanes don't do what other forms of transportation do.
AI has no hard limit on what sorts of labor it can cover.
In any event the point is it's a shit argument to say just because you can find quotes from people 200 years ago about the possibility of both physical and intellectual labor automation this means the actual automation that's already taking place in modern times and wasn't taking place then isn't going anywhere new.
What this really boils down to is where along the temporal axis is your quibbling preference for when this happens? Not within the next ten years but within the next hundred years? Next one thousand years? And if never, why never? What exactly about human behavior is so thoroughly profound and untouchable that AI has zero chance of matching or exceeding it?

>> No.10830016

>>10823073
But wouldn't better tech also make more complex jobs simpler and more accessible?

>> No.10830228
File: 248 KB, 1280x720, IN THE YEAR 2000.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
10830228

>>10829386
>And after kittyhawk all previous methods of transportation became obsolete and led to billions of people's legs withering away from misuse within a generation.
True

>> No.10830284

>>10829230
that's not the problem. The issue is that people are doing nothing except playing videogames. Instead of working they are playing games.

>> No.10830298

>>10830284
Or maybe the people who play video games all day instead of working would be doing something else equally unproductive if not for video games.

Nothing wrong with playing lots of video games. Too much of anything is bad for you though.

>> No.10830305

>>10820498
bitcoin will zoom into orbit within a decade, guaranteed

>> No.10830311

>>10821771
I don't really see any other strong candidate atm, who do you thing will take office?

>> No.10831596

bump

>> No.10831921

>>10823073
Perhaps we shouldn't have jumped up our populations for an unsupportable ponzi scheme mechanic where every generation had to be twice the size of the preceding one?

>> No.10831925

>>10823354
>Eastern Europe/Russia have pretty poor demographics, and they could probably take them in in the future.

Are you suggesting they won't do a Hungary and secure their borders, or a Croatia and take them in only to release them out on the other side of their country into the rest of Europe?

>> No.10831934
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10831934

>>10829493
>What exactly about human behavior is so thoroughly profound and untouchable that AI has zero chance of matching or exceeding it?

Because nobody will invent an AI that is an unpredictable retard that will get angry because someone looked at it the wrong way.

>> No.10832439

>>10831934
A challenge you say?

>> No.10832441

>>10831934
>>10832439
I'll make it exclusively a female passed menopause, just for good measure. They will hunt virgin men exclusively!

>Jacinta Alice Richardson solved the incel problem!

>> No.10832443
File: 7 KB, 320x157, download.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
10832443

>>10820222
Who would waste the energy/resources on observing them? Future civilizations only have a singularity of observational Fetishists!

>Death comes calling. Time for the Crypto Jaguar Wave!

Loli slut rave now only happens every day my personal pleasure vessel occupies!

>I crafted myself as future immortal tribute. ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED?! Weeee crypto agi dominant sexual trainer brain!

>> No.10833802

bump

>> No.10834492

>>10826493
>full automation
You don't need 100% of jobs automated to 100%. Shit starts to slowly collapse once unemployment passes 10%, and becomes a crisis once 20% is passed. An average of 20% automation across 100% of jobs, rendering those 20% unemployed, would cause enough problems on its own. Just look at Greece or Spain.

>> No.10834509

>>10820222
Hundred years ago. Cars made horse carriage permanently unemployed.

>> No.10835033

>>10834492

>I pull numbers from my ass to prove points on the internet

It's not going to happen because the ZOG will see all those unemployed like turned off machines that could be mining their jew gold.

>> No.10836713

bump

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